Comments by "Ace1000ks1975" (@Ace1000ks19751982) on "Cyrus Janssen"
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Zeihan doesn't know anything, he just makes stuff up. This idea China is going to go down because of demography is false. We have technologies that will replace millions of jobs in the near future, like AI, and automation. The CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang said, “everyone can be a programmer". What he is implying is, you will be able to tell the computer what you want it to do with simple English. You don't have to learn programming languages to do that in the future. One of my friends back in university was a computer science major, and he told me in the future people will not have to learn programming languages. I said why? He said, because computers will be able to understand human language. He also said, computer programming is basically about telling the computer what you want it to do. We will have robots, and robots can be trained with AI by demonstrating what you want it to do, like you would do with a human worker.
If and when that happens, you will not need to have 5,000 people in a company. You will be able to get the work of 10 to 15 people done with one person, so that labor for will be more like 333 to 500 people. If you don't think big corporations in the U S and other countries won't employ this technology to replace millions of people then you don't understand how corporations work. Corporations exist to be efficient. Efficient in the way of employing technology, machinery, and equipment to increase profitability. All this population growth will be a burden on the economy, because you will have millions of people who aren't contributing to the economy, because they are redundant. It will drain the social security system, state resources, municipal resources, and the national economy.
It isn't about having a huge population, it is about having a highly educated, and highly skilled work force which is more productive than having tons of people.
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@marknunya3107 That's why they are transitioning into a consumer based economy from a export based one.
Back in the 1950s to the 1980s, the Japanese economy was a exported oriented economy. South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore were exported oriented economies. Most of those countries have a big consumer based economy.
They transitioned from a labor intensive economy to a capital intensive economy. In order words, they invested in machines and automated processes to increase industrial output. They put more money into research and development to acquire core technologies.
Manufacturing and a exported oriented economy is a stepping stone to an advanced economy. Once, you control the core technologies, you don't have to be a manufacturing power. Most of the inputs that go into the manufacturing process, like the key components, like jet engines, chemical compounds, semiconductor chips, solar cells, engines, ballpoint tips, etc can be sold to the manufacturing country.
Most of the profits isn't in manufacturing. The companies that make the key components make the lion share of the profits. That's why China is investing money, and research to develop core technologies, like jet engines, solar cells, lithium batteries, other kinds of batteries, semiconductors, rockets for space shuttles, composite materials, alloys, chemical compounds, etc.
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The reason why American politicians are focusing on China, Russia, and other countries is because the US has a lot of internal problems. Systemic problems, like high rates of inflation, a decaying infrastructure due to insufficient funding, the commodification of the real estate(Making it next to impossible for regular people to buy homes), high level of debt public and private, high levels of crime, underemployment, etc. These problems can be fixed, but the politicians at the national level are more interested in creating on looking outside of their country to deflect the problems that exist here.
Sending billions of dollars in weaponry to far away lands, building more weapons to prepare for a war with China, and sanctioning other countries that don't agree with US policies. The USSR collapsed, because it too was too focused on building weapons, weapons, and more weapons. As a result, the economy in the USSR collapsed, and you had a failed state. You had rampant inflation, because not enough consumer goods were produced. You had long lines where people had to wait to buy basic consumer goods. We see this going on now in the USA. Historically, states and empires that are in a terminal state of decline always focus their energies on external enemies, scapegoating, have a bloated and corrupt bureaucracy. All of these things only accelerates the decline of an empire. We will see what happens to the US in the next 10 years.
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I don't think the US is capable of competing with a major power, like China. This is why they are using dirty tactics, like sanctions. Instead of working harder and competing with China, they are banning Chinese products, so they cannot compete with US products.
Instead of focusing on the US by building up infrastructure, maintaining the existing infrastructure which is falling apart, investing in education, putting billions of dollars into R&D, the US government is doing everything they can to hinder China's development.
Back in the 1980s, the US imposed all kinds of tariffs and sanctions against Japanese chip companies, Japanese automotive companies, and other Japanese firms. There was a lot of anti-Japanese sentiment, like there is a lot of anti-Chinese sentiment today.
The US is wasting hundreds of billions and have wasted trillions of dollars in wars, like Afghanistan, and Iraq which it did not win. The US currently has wasted 1/4 of a trillion dollars in Ukraine by providing arms to that country in a war that cannot be won. Trillions of dollars had been spent on wars, while the US government neglected its own people. The US didn't invest in its own people by improving the lives of people by playing the game of geopolitics and world empire. This is why empires in history fell, and the US is no exception to this rule.
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Unlike the U S, China's economy doesn't depend on asset inflation and debt. The Chinese economy is more diversified, and it doesn't depend on financing debt. The U S economy is highly financialized. You have all kinds of debts in the U S, like student loans, car loans, mortgages, credit cards, refinancing debt, payday loans, buying equities on margin, etc.
If the equities markets or the real estate market crashes in the U S then the economy will go into a severe economic downturn. The pillars of the U S economy is based on asset inflation which was caused by financing debt. Without mortgages, the real estate market would collapse. Without credit cards, the retail industry would collapse. Without car loans, the auto industry would collapse. Without student loan debts, colleges and universities would have to lay people off.
China produces things the world wants and needs, and this why why Chinese economy will not collapse. China also has a very large population, so most of what is produced in China can be absorbed in the Chinese economy.
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@kingwarrior5028 In a global recession, people will get poorer, but at least you don't have lawlessness like in the US. People breaking into stores in broad day light is a common occurrence in the US.
I look at the local news every day, a group of people rob a Macy's, a group of people rob a jewelry store, a group of people rob a Home Depot, a group of people rob a Target Dept Store, all the stores in a shopping center gets broken into every week, thieves break into a farmhouse, thieves stealing catalytic converters from vehicles, a group of thieves rob a Neiman Marcus, home invasions, carjackings, the KIA boys stealing cars, etc.
Such a great society isn't it. I don't even go out anymore. All of my friends told me that they witnessed robberies in major department stores in broad daylight. I don't even go out. I am fortunate that I have the luxury of working from home. If I have to shopping for groceries, I buy about 5 months worth in one trip, and the other stuff in just shipped to me.
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