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Jeffrey Marshall
Mark Moss
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Comments by "Jeffrey Marshall" (@jeffreymarshall4572) on "Mark Moss" channel.
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This was really good. But also really depressing. It’s scary to think of the pain coming our way after decades of debt, deficits and currency devaluations.
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Only 3 end game scenarios: Austerity, default or hyperinflation. Voters and politicians won’t allow austerity or default - so the only end game is hyperinflation. We might have a few months or we might have a few years but it’s coming. P
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My Oregon retirement pension has a COLA cap around 1.5% per year. It also has a $100 Billion unfunded liabilities. Every year inflation exceeds 1.5% I get a pension cut in real terms.
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The Fed bought $3 trillion in mortgages paying 2.5% and $6 trillion in US paying 1.5%. How can they unload this without losing a ton of money?
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What’s scary is the banks failing in 2023 are failing without high unemployment and customer loan defaults like 2008.
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One thing worse than hyperinflation is not being able to get things you need at any price.
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You’re right about it all being a Ponzi Mark. The only question is when the whole thing unravels.
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Great stuff Mark!
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Good stuff as always Mark. Inflation is NOT transitory and will get worse just I’m still not sold on BTC mainly due to potential government crackdown and their need for control.
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I wish someone would be honest about how this plays out. There will be no balanced budget. The debt and debt/GDP will continue to increase. What’s the end game?
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@JohnSmith-mo4yh There are pros and cons to both. I mainly buy silver because it’s cheaper. But I think it would be wise to own both. Plus anything else to help you survive like ammo, farmable land and seeds that are storable. Sad we have to ponder these things isn’t it?
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Something to ponder: ever since the US surpassed $1 trillion in accumulated DEBT in 1982, the US has averaged nearly $1 trillion in DEFICITS each and every year since.
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Even with all the recent rate hikes, REAL interest rate are still NEGATIVE. That’s just not rational.
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Trump would have never invaded Afghanistan. But Bin Laden would have got a cruise missile in his arse just like Soleimani. What a waste.
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I think debt to GDP is much higher (worse) than what it appears because GDP is massively overstated due to massive deficit spending itself. If the US ever balanced its budget, GDP would drop precipitously.
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This whole gigantic Ponzi Scheme only continues until governments cannot continue to raise their credit limits. At some unknown level of debt, the credit markets are going to start going haywire.
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@Mavendow How can this be defeated? I see no other path except painful austerity which the voters nor politicians will never have the guts to do.
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@JohnSmith-mo4yh Are you aware of 18th Scottish history professor Alexander Tytler who studied countless democracies and found out they all ended this same horrible way? 100% of the time the people eventually devolve into just voting for candidates that offer them the most “free” stuff without regard for how to pay for it. And that free stuff results in economic collapse. Yes, buy gold and silver.
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@JohnSmith-mo4yh And I’m personally not a crypto fan but if you can afford it, it couldn’t hurt to have some of that as well.
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When that idiot Paul Krugman speaks, it makes my hair spontaneously combust.
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In 1787, Scottish professor said all democracies are doomed to fail because eventually voters lose sight of the big picture and only vote for candidates that promise the most free stuff. This leads to bankruptcy and collapse of the democracy, ushering in an authoritarian regime. It seems to be playing just as Prof. Tytler predicted.
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@huwhitecavebeast1972 While I agree it’s a racket, it’s not a racket without consequences and the Fed can’t just manufacture without ruining the buying power of the currency. That’s exactly what got is in this current mess.
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Hey Mark, I’m glad you pushed back on Luke’s projection that massive government spending and a $40 trillion GDP could create an opportunity to get our debt under control. The one thing I might have pointed out to Luke is under his scenario a big piece of that higher GDP is from one-time massively higher Gov’t spending itself, so once that slows, GDP drops precipitously. And even higher debt to GDP ratios return.
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I just can’t see this debt Ponzi scheme going on much longer until something major breaks. But then again, I thought something would break before we got to $35T too.
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Meh. Greed, for lack of a better word, is good.
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There needs to be a separation of the gay mafia and state/corps.
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How can the Fed reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet (to fight inflation) while the US government is simultaneously adding a other $4 trillion in debt over the next 18 months? I just don’t think there’s enough non-central bank demand to buy all this debt.
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This is certainly plausible. It just seems so suspicious. Odds are that China released Covid on purpose to weaken and bankrupt the west. Then no surprise Russia invades Ukraine with zero outrage from China. China even refuses to call it an invasion. This just seems like all part of a larger plan to end western hegemony and economic dominance.
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What kind of economy would the US have if it had to run its economy on a balanced Federal budget? That’s been a extra $trillion pumped into the economy every year.
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This could easily turn into a world war. We already have war in Europe and war in the Middle East. I suspect at some level of Israeli retaliation, other Arab countries will come to Palestinians defense, and that will bring Israel’s allies into the conflict as well.
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Good stuff Mark. What if the GOP gets so disgusted with the latest $4 trillion “infrastructure” bill that they go nuclear and refuse to increase the debt ceiling?
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ESG is nuts.
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