Comments by "HomerOJSimpson" (@Homer-OJ-Simpson) on "How Mexico is Becoming the New China" video.

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  27.  @tren133  "Tesla in no way produces 2 million cars a year. At least not yet. " You're right, that's the current capacity. China's plant is 1/3 the total capacity. Tesla opened up a HUGE facility in Texas and another factory in Germany in 2022. In addition, they are in the process of building Gigafactory Mexico for 2024 opening. That means a smaller and smaller share of of what Tesla produces will be from China. The point is you were very misleading with ". The EV value chain inside China is just that much more advanced than anywhere else in the world. Only last year did the US try to enact laws such as the IRA to try to stimulate a EV supply chain inside the US in order to catch up, " The US is part of NAFTA (or whatever the name is now) so a lot of it's productions are across 3 countries. Tesla already had the same capacity in the US as it did in China BEFORE the "IRA to try to stimulate a EV supply chain inside the US in order to catch up". And a big reason Tesla is building in China is because the tens of billions in subsidies they have received. >As for Russia, I'm certain Chinese exports now make up a higher percentage of the market, but that's due more to overall market crashing and western carmakers pulling out rather than Chinese carmakers sending more cars in That's kind of my point. That 600,000 of that increase from 2021 to 2022 was from sanctions on Russia. >Even if the Chinese now hold 50% markeshare inside Russia, that would still only account for a small 5-6% of their total export numbers. I dont have figures on the value by country but in 2022, Russia was about 20-25% of the automobile exports for China. 600k out of about 2.5 million or 3.1 million vehicles. (I'm seeing two different numbers). (edit: 2.5 million is passenger vehicles, 3.1 million include commercial vehicles).
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  71.  @joaocerceau5810  " after some time, they will reach a limit in witch no company or foreign agent will just keep improving their country. After that they have develop more on their own,'". yes, that's how a country can escape the middle income trap. They need to develop their own . >China and India have a scale and a development problem on their own, I don't see that problem. A larger country means more opportunities to try things or more investment opportunities. It's far easier for a country with 1.4 billion people to develop some company or industry than a country with 50 mil, in large part because a 1.4b country has huge domestic market that can prop it up and then it could become a global company with that economy of scale they had due to 1.4 billion domestic market. Look at BYD electric vehicles. Started out selling in large volume inside of China and now spreading globally. China's problem now and moving forward has to do with some decisions they made. One child policy has lead to a population decline and a big drop in working age population with increase in elderly population is going to happen over the next few decades. Fewer workers means lower GDP potential and more elderly (to each worker) means more of the resources will be spent on economically unproductive things such as support for the elderly. China has also scared away a lot of investors in recent years under Xi. Then their housing market which was just a pyramid scheme is crumbling. It was responsible for 30%+ of GDP since 2000 but it's going to be far less going forward. India is too early too tell. They are seeing 7-8% annual GDP growth for several years now. Can they keep it up? Time will tell.
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