Comments by "HomerOJSimpson" (@Homer-OJ-Simpson) on "Veritasium" channel.

@AthAthanasius I don’t feel Vidoe demonstrates well enough for the common man who if the first person finds their number in 50 or fewer that the every other prisoner will do the same. Can anyone point me to the part of the video where he discussed that part? It must have gone right over my head.
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@nikifallen93 what I don’t understand is if the first person gets their number in less than 50 boxes, how come all the others will also do the same? How do we know they won’t end up in the loop with 51-100 boxes?
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@fortyyearfitness if you don’t start on your number you might get a loop without your number in it. Start at one, you have a chance you will hit a box sending you back to 1 before you find your number
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@bhorgc7860 got it. So only works if it’s exactly 50 to know 100% chance of success. I still don’t get how the 31% chance of success is achieved. Mathematically he gave the formula and calculation but in practice, I can’t understand it. The 50th box makes sense though. If first person finds their number in 49th box, how do we know everyone else will be on the same loop as his 49 and not the 51 box loop?
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@wingracer1614 I think it just hit me what that means. The video made it sound much more complicated but your explanation simplifies it for me. It's hard for me to 'believe' that 100 players with 100 boxes only has a 69% of there being one loop over 50 but that's what the math demonstrated. In my mind, it feels like 100 players with 100 boxes would have far higher than 69% chance of having a loop over 50.
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@wingracer1614 If the first player gets his in 30th box, that means one loop is 30 long, right? That leaves the other 70 to be split into 1 to 70 loops. Is this correct? If so, I'm starting to see how it's only 69% chance of there being a loop over 50 even though at first I thought it would be a significantly higher chance than 69%.
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@astromessier If there are 100 boxes and one loop is 50, then you know all other loops are 50 or less thus 100% chance of success. In other words, out of simplicity imagine the loop first chosen is just numbers 1-50. Anyone with a number of 1-50 will be within that loop. That leaves 51-100. We don't know how may loops there are among 51-100 but it is at least 1 and at most 50 loops. Worst case is just 1 loop among 51-100....which is still 50 boxes in that loop. So therefore 100% chance of success if the first person got his number in exactly 50 boxes.
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I don’t feel Video demonstrates well enough for the common man who if the first person finds their number in 50 or fewer that the every other prisoner will do the same. Can anyone point me to the part of the video where he discussed that part? It must have gone right over my head.
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The answer is clearly that the probability a heads was rolled is 1/2 and the probability she awoke after a heads is 1/3. Now, of course, the issue is how do you interpret the question or as mentioned at 8:02, are you more interested in getting answering the question from the perspective of sleeping beauty or more interested from the perspective of the coin or the person giving the test? I see the question as probability from sleeping beauty’s perspective and her attempt to get the most answers correct — thus 1/3
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One major problem from this video is that it suggest following all of that makes you great at that but it ignores that you need talent to begin with it. I have terrible finger dexterity and will never be world class pianist if I put in 10,000 hours. I can be good but I will never be world class. Same with tennis - I don’t have the physical skills so I will never be in a grand slam or even on the circuit. I wish the video discussed that a bit more.
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