Comments by "HomerOJSimpson" (@Homer-OJ-Simpson) on "In What State Is the Russian Economy?" video.

@Greg-yu4ij Did you repeat what Putin wanted you to repeat?
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I found this video weird. They didn't truly show all the important metrics and facts such as how the gas and oil revenues dropped significantly towards the end even before the Dec 2022 price cap. They left out some other metrics and facts that would really show Russia's long term struggles but at the same time, they seem overly optimistic at Russia's eventual economic destruction. Russia will certainly be hurt in the long run but the video at times makes it appear as if Russias economies will eventually collapse or have much bigger damage than what might actually happen. It's really hard to tell what the long term damage will be -- if oil and gas prices hike up again, even with a price cap, Russia will not be hurt as much. But if oil and gas prices do not increase and say a global slowdown occurs bringing demand down for gas and oil, Russia's economy can tank. It's uncertain if many other nations will try to do business as usual with Russia in the long run or not. All I know is that unless it's an economic collapse, I don't see Putin stopping the war due to economic reasons. The sanctions will just make it harder to fund the war and get the materials and weapons they need to keep the war going at full scale.
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@Greg-yu4ij SLAVA UKRAINI!
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I'm glad you guys brought up the nuances, ESPECIALLY the War impact on GDP. Fighting a war requires a lot of government spending and government spending is literally one of the measures used in GDP. The best thing to do is look at GDP without war spending since war spending is mostly to build things that will just be destroyed and don't improve the citizens life. The charts showing certain industries plummeting at 8:22 was a perfect example of the information needed to really tell the story. However, that chart was only trade with EU so we would need to understand Russia's total trade -- where they able to make up for that EU trade loss or was there still some net loss? What everything seems to suggest is Russia is slowly in decline and will have major financial issues the longer the war goes but Russia will not economically collapse and will continue to have modest GDP losses or zero gain though it can be argued that GDP losses after war spending is removed might be considerable but not collapsing considerable.
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@randomcommenteronyoutube1055 Yes, that's what I expect. A slow decline of Russia that will make it harder for Russia to fight a full fight but it won't lead to Putin giving up because there will need to be an economic collapse, which won't happen. The hope is that a weakened Russia leads to Ukraine slowly taking back it's lands.
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@thomasherrin6798 The problem is that somebody is likely to bail them out, at least partially. And it's possible that gas and oil prices rise which would mean Russia isn't hit as hart economically. But it's also possible global slowdown could lead to lower gas and oil prices which would hurt Russia.
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@johnny9092 " Struggles, yes but they are winning now. " They won a few square km of land after losing hundreds of sq km. Also, Ukraine is getting MUCH better weapons in a few months including advance tanks, missile defense systems (Patriot), and longer range missles than the 50 miles / 80km Himars with a new Himars missles that will be 100 miles / 150km.
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@MSD Group “ if Russia’s economy is so bad this year how could the IMF make a prediction that Russia will be the 9th strongest economy on earth?” Because you’re using how big an economy is rather than its growth or decline. Seriously? You’re basically saying India has a better economy than Switzerland because of the size of India. What’s the temperature in Moscow today?
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It’s not doing better than most of European economies — it shrank 3% last year. And the gdp is misleading because Russia spent $100 billion in the war which is considered part of gdp. That’s nearly 6% of gdp so their actual gdp minus the war would be -9% or even lower.
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@MSD Group nothing you stated makes sense. Russia is the one having serious fiscal issues — did you not watch the part where Russia increase revenues 10% but costs by 20%?
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This is why more and more nations are forming alliances. You have NATO expanding plus NATO allied countries that will likely be treated much like a NATO country. You have growing alliances in Asia/Ocean with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, India and to a lesser extend Philippines and Vietnam.
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@jeremydevor7004 I agree, if Ukraine can cut through the middle, Crimea and the western parts of Russia controlled Ukraine will be Ukraine's. I don't see Ukraine ever taking Donbass region in a military fight because it's too well fortified and bordering Russia will be too well supplied. At best it will be part of some agreement IMO where possibly Russia gives up the Donbas in return for certain concessions for Russia to save face and possibly in return for the west undoing all sanctions.
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@retkvi no idea why your comment doesn’t show. YT Zia weird. But yeah, the outcome can be very bad for Putin if he starts losing more of the captured territory. But given his control of the media and information, he might just find a way to keep getting support. Remember it started as a special operation to get rid of the n-zis in Ukraine? Now they call it a war, had a mobilization, and haven’t mentioned n-zi in a while changing the story that it’s now about the west aggression. I’ve watched many videos on 1420 channel where they talk to Russians on the streets and 3/4 of them just believe what Putin says.
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@Miniorpernik Japan bought a very small amount (relative to their usage) above cap (not above market price). From a report " Despite the concession, Russian natural-gas imports to Japan are relatively small, accounting for around one-tenth of Japan’s supply and a fraction of Russia’s output, the Wall Journal reports". It was also approved by the US..."Japan has begun purchasing Russian crude oil above the $60-a-barrel cap, breaking with Western allies thanks to an exception authorized by the United States. "
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@Miniorpernik So, you have any more false info you want to spread? How's Moscow today?
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@Miniorpernik Oh, they are only buying it at $70, $10 more than the cap but below market rate. "The nations granted an exception to the $60-a-barrel cap through September for oil purchased by Japan. And in the first two months of this year, Japan bought around 748,000 barrels of Russian oil for approximately $70 a barrel."
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