Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "How’s Russia’s Economy Actually Doing?" video.

  1. True, it's a bit like natural disasters that are added as economic growth when in reality, it's having a negative impact on the economy as it's damage that needs to be repaired, in other words, resources are needed to fill that voids that otherwise wouldn't be needed. It's the same with Russia and the war, on the surface it looks good for the economy because of all the military spending, but this is resources being diverted away from other social programs in Russia, then throw in the brain drain and how many Russians are being killed in the war, it's all bound to have a negative impact on the economy but it's hard to say by how much because the state is either not reporting or is manipulating the numbers.
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  2. It likely is having an impact, the cost of the war in Ukraine for Russia, the brain drain, the reduction in oil and gas sold to the EU, which is forcing Russia to sell to other countries at a discount. All of this is resources being drained from the Russian economy that wouldn't be if Putin didn't start the war in Ukraine, so it's very likely having a negative impact, but being as Russia is a dictatorship, there's no way to know how bad the economy is doing because of fiddling with the numbers which is mostly designed to appease the Russian people, but one thing you can guarantee on, Putin has self-interest in making the Russian economy look better than it is for his own personal survival, so the economy is likely doing worse than it appears, and over the short term, those cracks can be covered, but long term, the damage could be big, especially if there is no conclusion in Ukraine and Russia has to continue to spend a fortune to fund the war. Personally, I think the biggest threat to Russia now is this massive renewable drive in the EU, US and China, this is reducing the value of oil and gas sooner rather than later that Putin might have weaned up off fossil fuels a decade or so earlier than it would have been, and if so, that's massive revenue loss for Russia, but we should also remember that as renewables continue to take a bigger percentage of the energy sector, that's going to put downwards pressure on fossil fuel prices until eventually it's not worth anything, that's probably the biggest mistake Putin did with the war in Ukraine, it's speeded up the process away from fossil fuels, and it's all fossil fuel producing nations that will pay the price for that over the long run, where ironically, it's the countries that have no or very little fossil fuels that will benefit the most with a big windfall every year to the economy, in other words, that spending to buy fossil fuels will stay in the economy, whereas fossil producing nations stand to lose that revenue. Either way, from Russia not reporting on the economy or reporting far less, suggest it's having a negative impact, if they had nothing to hide, they would be singing from the rooftops on how well the economy is doing, but when Putin is being so cagey on that and trying to appease the Russian people into thinking the economy is doing better than it is, which I suspect far more resources are going into the major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg to try and shield them from the worst of the economic fall out whereas the rest of the country is probably going to the dogs. Also, just like a natural disaster boost economic growth, so does a war, on the surface, the Russian economy might look like it's doing good, but in reality, this is resources being shifted away from the Russian people towards the war effort in Ukraine, that's bound to have a negative knock on effect on the Russian people, especially if the war drags on, but in any case, we don't know how the economy is doing, but considering the expenditure on the millinery and lower revenue from fossil fuels, that will have a direct knock on effect on the Russian people in a negative way, regardless of how the state wants to paint how well the economy is doing.
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