Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "How Far Will Putin Invade? Will He Take all of Ukraine? - TLDR News" video.

@MrKakibuy Even if that is the case, that's still costly for Russia and in the meantime, EU countries are likely looking for other sources to source their energy means on the international market and will likely push up their renewable energy drive, so yes, a few years can be quite damaging for Russia. After all, after all this, it's highly unlikely that European countries are going to want to get oil and gas from Russia with all the political games they play, they are very likely going to look else ware in the coming years. In the end, if you keep threatening your customers and not being reliable, they are going to look elseware.
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Russia is trying to convert these people by force and pressure whiles the EU and the west are winning the hearts and minds of these people and it simply boils down to one simply think, the west is offering more security, stability, wealth and all that good stuff whereas Russia is mostly offering threats to toe the line which isn't so much in the interest of Russia but more in the interest of keeping the powers that be in power in Russia, in other words, Putin is protecting is position of power, I highly doubt he cares about the well-being of Russians. At the end of the day, if you go to the common people, all they really want is stability and a good standard of living, the west and especially the EU offers that, what does Russia offer those eastern European countries? lots of threats to toe the line, this is why Putin and Russia is losing, they are not winning the hearts and minds of people whereas the EU is and an invasion of Ukraine isn't going to change that reality unless Russia offers Ukraine a really good deal, something they can't do because they can't even do it for it's own people. In the end, all this is doing is pushing more countries towards the EU, which is the last thing Russia wants but what do they expect, you keep threaten countries to toe the line, they are going to shift away from them and with the EU on the door step, it looks very appealing to many of those countries. So yeah, I don't see what Putin aims to achieve here as it looks like it could backfire in the longer run, especially if the west arms the rebels in Ukraine to make it as painful and costly to Russia in a bogged down war and it might be the reason why some western countries could be daring Putin to invade because they see this as an opening to turn the Russian people against him over the longer run by having a costly, bloody war that could turn the Russian people against Putin, I suspect that's what the US and UK are pushing for, knowing that the west was never going to give the concession to Putin that he demanded and now it kinda feels like they are egging Putin on to invade. After all, lets be blunt about this, it's highly unlikely that the US or UK cares about Ukraine but they are seeing a big opening to do Putin harm and seem to be gapping it with both arms by backing Putin into a corner where he either has to back down which won't go down well in Russia or enter a costly war in Ukraine, hence why it's been delayed and delayed, Putin was trying to figure a way out of the mess he got himself into but there isn't any, the irony being, it looks like sleepy Joe might have outsmarted Putin. As for the response, if the west didn't respond, it would embolden Putin to not just take Ukraine but other vulnerable countries in the east, the west will have to put it's foot down with much tougher measures to send a message to Putin or he won't stop with Ukraine. It could also undermine NATO and the EU if no strong actions are taken on Russia, so in the end, they have to respond, the question is, how do they respond. The irony is, it's these kinds of events that could lead to another major war if we let it escalate, and especially with China backing Russia on this.
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China position is a bit funny, on the one hand they really want to support Russia because they don't like the west, especially the US but on the other, it would be really costly for China when it comes to trade, especially with other regions like India itching to take that trade away from China.
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@MrKakibuy Well you can't just switch that off overnight, it takes time but it's clear that there's a big push from EU countries to move away from Russian oil and gas and there are talks that they could lower it by a quarter by the end of the year, basically, in just a matter of 5 years, the EU countries might not be buying any gas or oil from Russia because Russia isn't a reliable partner any more. There are ways of speeding up this process, especially if the west works much closer and more coordinated on this and that would be better to hit Putin where it really hurts. As for the sanctions, they are anything but toothless, in fact they are a lot tougher than most of us expected they would be, especially Putin as he didn't see this coming, Russia is bleeding money at a rapid rate, they can't hold on with this for long, maybe a matter of weaks or months before going bankrupt, Russia is being isolated from the west of the world and the Russian people are seeing this, hence the protest, people rising up and the tough new laws Putin brought in against the Russian people, he knows his time is limited and is doing everything to try and protect his position, especially from an uprising from the Russian people. It wouldn't surprise me if Putin is killed over the coming months, either from his inner circle or the Russian people as this has been one of the biggest miscalculations I've seen in a long time.
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@Snipsnop260 Russia is a lot weaker than China but in the case of China, both sides have a lot to lose if anything kicks off so even China would think twice about doing what Russia is doing. China does need to worry here because if they do end up supporting Russia too much, they could end up getting isolated from much of the world, they depend on the world economy a lot more than Russia does so China might have no choice but to distant themselves away from Russia even if they don't want to do so, the fact is, they trade a lot with the west and can't afford to mess that up. The truth is, Russia isn't that important to China long term interest, Russia is just there to be used by China in it's games against the west, also the ideology or culture of Russia and China are very different from each other, most Russians would feel more at home with EU ideology or culture.
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