Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "How Putin's WAR STRATEGY is KILLING Europe and US? : War Strategy Case study ( Russia vs Europe)" video.

  1.  @eaman11  Well said, some people seem to think European countries can just switch off buying gas from Russia, it's not that simple and even if they did, maybe people have not realized it yet but all it does is push up the price of gas and oil on the international market because it forces European countries to scramble around the world for alternatives, the end results is high energy bills and high inflation for most of the world and that won't ease much until European countries secure energy sources around the world, in other words, most of the world is in the same boat. The good news is, thanks to Putin, it will likely happen much faster than it normally would, crisis can usually get change done in a much shorter time than normally would happen. Truth is, I'm happy to share some of the pain in the short term because I know this is very likely going to get more radical changes in the energy market, especially if energy prices stay high, in other words, Putin might have shortened the fossil industry by about 10-15 years because of his actions because now a lot of countries will want to generate a lot of their own energy means internally for security reasons. That's bad news for the fossil producing countries because even just 5 years would be enough to wipe off trillions in revenue and I suspect, as happy as the oil and gas industry is about the short term profits, they likely know how damaging this is to their own industry long term, hence why on the one hand, I hope energy prices stay high so bigger changes can happen in a shorter space of time but on the other hand, I want energy prices to come down. Putin for trying to be smart has really shot Russia in the foot here and I don't see any real way of Russia getting out of this in a good way.
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  2. I remember reading that Russia has enough reserves for the next 18 months, which by that time, a lot of European countries should have reduced thier oil and gas buying a lot from Russia, it's around that time when things could get really bad for Russia. We should remember that Russia economy is the worst hit out of the G20 and Putin created a lot of reserves years ago to help prop up the economy, so on the surface, things don't seem so bad but the reality is, Russia is bleeding money from all sides, it's only a matter of time before that filters through to the Russian people. As for the EU, they only have to share the pain for about 2 years at the most, remember that as Russia reduces it's gas and oil to the EU, other countries are looking at that void as a massive opening to profit on that, in other words, Russia lose is someone elses gain and who gets their foot in the door early to that EU market stands to make a fortune and so far the US is ahead on that one. In the meantime, Russia is being isolated from the world, the likes of China and India are seeing an opening to take advantage of Russia and as for the sanctions, if history is any indicator, sanctions tend to bite a lot harder about 2 to 3 years in, considering how badly the Russian economy is being hit already, imagine how much worse it's going to get over the coming years.
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  3. Let's remember that Russia economy is tanking pretty hard and this is with Putin using a lot of Russia's reserve to keep the economy afloat, on top of that, Russia performance in Ukraine is poor to say the least, after all, the west are sending Ukraine crumbs and that is doing a lot of damage to the Russian military in the region. The reality is, the cost of the war in Ukraine, the sanctions and Europe moving away from Russian oil and gas is having a big impact on Russia and that is likely only going to get much worse as Europe shifts away from Russian oil and gas and Russia reserves start to run out, which it's estimated to be around 18 months from now. The EU and the US are playing the long game here, sanctions usually take 2 to 3 years to really bite and the reality is, Russia is already being hit much harder than the west is and unlike Russia, the western countries can adapt to this over the next few years, Russia on the other hand doesn't really have any other rich countries to sell its oil and gas too and the likes of China and India knows Russia is in a weak position and are taking advantage of that by pressuring them to sell oil and gas dirt cheap. If that isn't bad enough, it looks like military aid to Ukraine will ramp up a lot in November. However we look at it, Russia is in deep trouble, the war in Ukraine is costing them a fortune, they are making little to no traction in the region, their reserve are running out, the EU countries are shifting away from Russian oil and gas, ironically, faster than they wanted to thanks to Putin. This is only going to get much worse for Russia whiles the EU only has to grin and bear it for about 2 years until they adapt, something that will likely happen sooner rather than later thanks to Putin.
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  4.  @mucruzz1886  Not sure how you figure that one out, all Putin has done is scaring a lot of countries to wanting to join the EU and NATO, what Putin is doing is the opposite of what he wanted and more countries that join the EU and NATO is only going to make those organizations stronger. But seriously, what did Putin expect to happen, you threaten countries and they will adapt, same with energy, you threaten your customers, they will look elseware and considering there are not many rich markets for Russia to sell too and with Russia being isolated, even a lot of companies from China and India are pulling out of Russia because they don't want to harm their business in the west, the reality is, the west is far more valuable than Russia is. Putin for someone that likes to think he's smart has made one of his biggest mistakes with this war and Russia as a country is paying a high price for that and what makes it worse for Russia is that Putin setup a lot of reserves to help the Russian economy, that's what's being used now to limit the damage, but those reserves are running out fast, that's when things become really dire for Russia and it's probably around that time when a lot of Europe has reduced buying oil and gas from Russia, basically, around that time, Russia could become a basket case that defaults on it's debts whereas the west only as to weather this storm for a few short years before things go back to normal.
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  5. Problem is that there is no such thing as staying neutral, the truth is, India is seeing Russia is weak, they know they are finding it much harder to sell oil and gas to Europe and India as well as China are taking full advantage of that by pressuring Russia to sell oil and gas dirt cheap. The more isolated Russia becomes, the more under the thumb Russia is likely to be of China, which is pretty dumb of Putin really. Also, Russia cash reserve are running out, once that happens, the real damage will kick in for Russia and on top of that, the EU countries will continue to reduce buying Russian oil and gas over time, this is putting Russia in a tight bind, they are finding it difficult to sell to the rich markets whiles the so called friendly countries of Russia are taking advantage of Russia whiles Russia is weak, expect things to get a lot worse next year.
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