Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "Sky News Australia"
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Actually, his only real path is to bend to the EU and give some concessions, Boris has threatened many times to walk away and never does it so it seems very hollow, in truth, he knows he can't afford to leave without a deal because him and the Tory party is what will get it in the neck once the British people start complaining when things get worse for them and that could be the case from both remainders and Brexiteers alike.
Truth be told, the UK governments used the idea of bluffing to try and get the EU to bend and give more but they are not buying that and in fact it looks as if they are getting tougher on their own terms, from the EU's point of view, they want a deal but they wont bend to British demands, if Boris wants no deal, that will be fine by the EU, they still have their own trade terms with all the countries in the EU, they still have all their free trade deals around the world and they still have all their bilateral agreements around the world, basically, the EU can afford a no deal a lot more than the UK can.
Another factor is that no deal could play right into the hands of the independence movement in Scotland and Northern Ireland, especially as no deal would harm their interest, it's no wonder Boris doesn't look so well lately, the pressure from Brexit and Covid is really start to impact him.
Now I'm hoping these clowns are stupid enough to go for no deal as we'll learn a lot quicker from that than we will if we got a deal, hence the real pressure is on Boris now and he knows it hence his ageing process is speeding up lol.
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@medrecs He might expose some problems but he actually created a lot of the problems the UK faces.
Also, I do love how the media, especially the right wing media makes it seem like there's going to be no power at all in Europe this winter lol.
I'll tell you what will happen, there will be no power cuts or nothing to write home about, consumers and businesses will have to tighten their belts a little but overall it shouldn't have much impact overall, The real thing I think that will have is big protest movements over the price of energy, which is basically going to force price capping and diversifying away from fossil fuels long term.
So at the end of the day, yeah it will be a tight winter but the lights will stay on and it will more or less be business as usually for the most part but hey, according to the right wing media, it's going to be the end of the world lol, I mean seriously, how many times through history do they have to get it wrong before people stop listening to them? lol.
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Russia more or less already has lost even if it turns things around in Ukraine, which is looking unlikely.
The reality is, the cost of the war, Europeans not buying their oil and gas, the sanctions and the west actively isolating Russia is making this war very costly for Russia long term that any victory in Ukraine is more or less a pyrrhic victory and let's be honest, it's looking more like that Ukraine is getting the upper hand with being trained, better equipped, thanks to the west whereas Putin is having disciplinary issues, low moral and now they are trying to send people into the war that are not as well-trained, probably not as well-equipped and likely less disciplined, basically, they are being sent in as cannon fodder.
As for nukes, Putin is using every scare tactic he can come up with to scare the west in not supporting Ukraine, I don't think Putin understands that he's gone too far with this war that the west can't back down without looking weak and beside, if they did back down, Putin wins and would likely get more aggressive on nearby countries, which would also send a powerful message out to the world that there are limits that the west can handle, China is watching this to see how far the west is willing to go and if they see weakness, Taiwan will be a tempting target for them.
In the end, it doesn't matter what threats Putin gives out, the west can't afford to back down on this and history has shown that if you're a soft touch with dictators, it usually escalates things a lot more, this has to be made crystal clear to Putin and the Russians that support this war that it's going to be very costly to them, economically and in terms of lives and if it does come down to nukes, we all stand to pay a high price for that but if Putin is stupid enough to push that agenda, his inner circle or the Russian people will likely kill him, after all, this is Putin's personal war, I highly doubt millions of Russians want to die in a war that is meaningless.
In any event, the biggest mistake the west could do here is to go soft on Putin and to give in to his threats, Putin created this personal war, how it unfolds is on his head, not the west.
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@arno_nuehm_1 politicians are a reflection of the people, besides, there is no fuel shortage, we're just talking about a dices winter which it looks like the Europeans are ready for and that after winter, things should start to ease off a lot.
Also, we should remember that there is a lot of blame to go around on all this, the west has been too soft on Putin for the last decade when he invaded Crimea, Putin was banking on the west to just do another slap on the wrist for invading Ukraine.
The question is, would Putin have invaded Ukraine if the west was a lot tougher on Putin when he invaded Crimea? Probably not.
Also, it's not just the Germans that bought a lot of oil and gas from Russia, a lot of countries did, so there is a lot of blame to go around the west but in any case, this could start an energy revolution which isn't a good thing for countries that either depend on fossil fuel revenue or that sell a lot of them because the change away from that system could happen a lot sooner thanks to energy being a security issue, in other words, I suspect a lot more countries, especially in Europe are going to want to generate a lot more of their energy internally and in that sense, Putin might have done the world a massive favour by getting us all to clean up our act and use a lot more clean energy sources, after all, things can change pretty rapidly when there is enough motivation and political will do drastic changes, which a lot is changing in Europe because of the energy crisis and with that, It's going to be very interesting to see the energy mix over the next decade, especially in Europe because I have a feeling they are going to speed up the change a lot, which is good news for Europe but bad news for countries that produce fossil fuels as it could wipe out a decade or more of that revenue which would be worth trillions to those countries.
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I live in the UK and seriously, the way the media goes on about summer weather, especially with heat waves, they make it seem like we are vampires that have never seen sun before and that we should avoid the sun unless we want to combust lol.
We get quite a bit of sun each summer and yeah the heat waves and weather has become more erratic the last decade or so.
The other day for instance, it was 39c outside and 47c in my room and it felt fine apart from getting asleep that which it was in the upper 20's which is quite hot for sleep time.
On the other hand, we should remember that the UK gets quite humid in summer, the temperature can feel much hotter than many other places with higher temps, especially because houses in the UK are design to keep heat in, but I always find it amusing how Brits cry for summer and yet when summer is in, they cry for it to end lol.
Anyway, I think the real issue isn't that summers are getting hotter and winters are becoming milder in the UK at least, but more to do with how erratic the weather is becoming which isn't normal and for me, it started around a decade ago.
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The funny thing is that the Conservative party are part of the establishment, if we really wanted change, we had to vote for something very different and new and I suspect over the next few months that we are going to realize that nothing has really changed, the irony being now that Boris doesn't need to listen to either side of the argument on Brexit now as he's got a majority and that can change things a lot as I suspect he only listened to the Brexiteers because he needed their vote, now he's got them for the next few years, he can do whatever he wants.
The real interesting thing is what he'll do in January because he said before the election that the UK will leave the EU at the end of the month, now because he's secured his position, there is a fair chance he'll delay Brexit and come up with some excuse on why it needs delaying now that the pressure is off as the thing is with Boris, he's an opportunist, he'll tell us what he thinks we want to hear, not what he can or wants to deliver and he knew that he had to scoop up the Brexiteers votes from the Brexit Party, now he's got them, he can change his tune on Brexit and I suspect if he does, it will likely happen mid to late January.
Next year is going to be a very interesting one for the UK and personally, I think Boris will delay Brexit with the aim of trying to get a better deal than is on the table as he knows he's in the firing line for any damage that Brexit does for the UK and he knows that now there is no excuse on who gets the blame as it will clearly go on to the Conservative Party, now that they have a majority, before that, it was easy for them to pin the blame on Labour, the remainers and so on, they don't have that excuse now, so year, next year will be interesting to see, lets see what lies he'll come up with now.
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Isn't it funny how Sky News in the UK is more balanced than Sky News in Australia, it says a lot about how it's not about reporting the news in a balanced way but who is doing the reporting, Sky news in Aus is quite fanatical like Fox News is in the US and my oh my, both are owned by the same person lol.
In other words, they are not reporting the news, they are reporting the views of Rupert Murdoch and if people are stupid enough to fall for it then more fool them.
Either way, it's in everyone interests to get a more balanced view on anything even if it's not agreeable to what you want to hear, lying to one's self is only fooling the person that is lying to themselves as it doesn't change how things really are.
Also, have you seen some of the panic in the UK now that the EU is getting a lot tougher in these talks? it's priceless how the UK is complaining about the EU cheer picking lol, it's like they don't get it, the EU can do that but the UK can't because the EU is a lot bigger and now thanks to the UK being out of the EU, the EU now hold all the cards on these talks, they are the ones setting the rules and it looks like they are getting a lot tougher on the UK because now they know the UK can't threaten the EU to revoke Article 50.
Hence, why many EU members support tough measures and some like France wants even tougher measures, it also says a lot that the vote in the European Parliament votes by a big number for much tougher measures in these talks.
Anyway, I'll tell you how I think it's going to go, the UK will huff and puff but it won't achieve anything, they have no clout with the EU any more, the EU will likely drag this out because they know they can, the EU knows that the UK is more or less a vassal now, either of the EU, US or China and even most Brexiteers in the UK don't want to follow Chinese or American rules, laws and regulations which puts the UK back in the fold of the EU without the UK having any real say over laws, rules and regulations which is perfect for the EU because they get everything they want without the UK having any say in them.
The real funny thing about this is that it works for Boris as well, think about it, he can say he delivered on Brexit, not on what kind of Brexit and this being politics, he can wing it past the British public because Boris want to do any real harm to the UK economy and he knows that staying close to the EU and getting a good deal is the best way to protect it, the last thing he wants is the UK to be in the toilet come next election, and he gets the boot as that will play right into the hands of remainers and support for rejoining the EU would grow.
In any case, getting out of the EU was the easy part, making a success of it isn't and that is why the fun really begins now.
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@AK-df2ve I suspect the numbers are higher than what governments are telling us because they always like to make it seem things are not as bad as they are to not scare us as much, they know that the higher the numbers are, the more votes they stand to lose, I suspect in most western countries at least, the numbers are higher than what the governments are telling us, something that should be easier to find out over the next year or two.
In any case, going on history and how viruses work, this viruses is following the same pattern, a few different waves, opening and shutting down of the economy and repeating that cycle until we either find a vaccine or some other alternative to reduce the risk of dying from it but I suspect we could get 2 to 3 waves and it could go on all the way to the end of next year.
In any case, too many people thought we was past the worst of it and thought things would go back to normal, I knew that wasn't going to be the case and knew that as soon as we start to opening, it was going to kick off all again, the virus didn't just disappear, we just suppressed it by our actions but that can only work for a short time because of the damage to the economy.
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They might be preparing for war with Australia which as a Brit, I say they can have it lol, after all, all that natural resources, what a temping target lol.
As for the west, no chance, the west and China can't afford to go to war with each other with how advanced both are.
In any case, don't bank on the US backing Australia up, they will only do it out of self-interest and I doubt they will want a hot war with China.
The sad reality is, Australia isn't really relevant to the west so you might be on your own and my advice, make as many friends as you can and quickly, the European one are likely your best chance because don't bank on the US to help you as even if they do, there will be a very high price Australia would have to pay and even then it's unlikely the US would help because they don't want a full on confrontation with China.
The sad truth is, Australia is geo-politically and economically not that important to the west and the only thing of value is natural resources, that is the only thing that might interest the US, you can bet it will interest China.
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Sky News seems more interesting in trying to dig any dirt it can on Biden and simply because he's a Democrat lol, if he was a Republican, doing the same policies and blunders, it would be lip service from Sky News lol.
Seriously guys, wake up lol, they are not reporting the news but trying to make it by shaping your views, after all, just look at their point of views over decades, it's got a very specific agenda to it.
Now if only we could get back to the news just being reported and not fabricated with petty arguments like we keep seeing and people wonder why the world is the way it is, right wing policies, right wing media and you wonder lol.
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Probably likely to become centre right to appeal to more people.
I'm noticing a trend when it comes to these far left and right parties that come close or get into power, they tone things down a lot and become a lot more centre of politics.
Makes sense really, because unless the majority of the public becomes more radical, these governments won't last that long and they likely know that some they become more centre to have more lasting power in politics, otherwise, if they stuck to the radical views, they'll probably get wiped out on the next elections.
This is also why they are not really a threat to the people of the country or to the EU like some want them to be, after all, how many times has this happened? A few times already with Italy being one of the last, and yet it changed very little for the simple reason that reality kicks in on what they can do over the bluster of what they wanted to do, remember guys, on the sideline, they can say pretty much anything they want with little to no risk, once in power, their necks are on the line, hence why they keep toning things down to a central point of view in politics, because for the most part, that's what the people want.
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That probably explains why in Europe they are ramping up the production of renewable energy in the market a lot.
Also, the reason energy prices go up even with renewables is because they are all linked together, gas, oil and renewable, hence why renewable price hasn't actually changed and electric energy is only slightly higher than it was before the war in Ukraine whereas gas has gone up a lot and supprise supprise, the other two and linked to gas, that basically means the other two go up in price by about the same amount regardless of what's going on.
Hence why now we are seeing talks about separating gas, oil and renewable energy from each other, something that should have been done a long time ago and that would be bad news for the fossil industry because consumers will be able to see the price point of them all and consumers will move to what offers a lower price point.
Still, I've got to give it to the energy industry, it was smart of them to tie all 3 together to basically hold back the renewable industry by making it seem expensive but seriously, what were governments thinking in allowing that as that is just keeping us dependent on fossils and keeps prices high but then again, governments subsidize the fossil industry to the tune of 5 trillion per year, you're all being conned by the fossil industry that doesn't want change.
At the end of the day, the best solution for Europe is to ignore the doubters, ramp up renewable production and kill the fossil industry by making that industry less competitive in the market, after all, if the EU makes this work, the rest of the world will have to follow to stay competitive.
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The irony is about Russia is how much more powerful of a country if they became a democratic country and actually try to integrate into the world economy by building trust, which would bring in a lot more foreign investment.
A country with the kind of natural resources Russia has could do a lot better if they tried to integrate into the world economy and not try to dictate it and dare I say it, a democratic Russia could open up the door for Russia becoming an EU member.
All Putin is doing here is weakening Russia, isolating them that's going to take at least a decade to recover from if not longer, Putin clearly miscalculated with the west, especially with the EU and US and now Russia is paying a high price that's only going to get worse in time, especially as EU countries shift to more reliable sources of energy.
This is also a massive warning message to China when it comes to it's hostile actions on Taiwan which might make China rethink things on China and this could be a big opening for the west and China to reset relations and put them on a more normal footing before things get out of hand, either way, thanks to Putin, the EU members are very likely going to integrate more, especially on security, military and energy matters, basically, Putin has achieved his nightmare outcomes by making the EU, NATO and the west stronger and now we are seeing more countries wanting to join the EU and NATO, as well as relations with the EU-US get stronger, this couldn't have gone any worse for Putin if he tried lol.
Anyway, I do have a feeling that in time as things get worse and the sanctions really start to bite, many on the inner circle in the Russian government and military could turn on Putin and with that, it should help the Russian people to rise up and depose him but we are not at that stage yet but if the west keeps arming Ukraine, training them, it's going to be really costly for Russia in economic and personal terms that it probably will brake the camels back, especially with all the lies Putin is feeding to the Russian people, lies can only work to a degree before it looks ridicules, that's when Putin needs to watch his back.
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So China helping countries out is now considered a bad thing now? You have to wonder about some people and their way of thinking, more so when they have an agenda.
Now don't get me wrong, China should take some of the blame on this virus but the way some countries and people are acting, it wouldn't matter how much good or what China does, they will always get the blame in their eyes, just like Trump, he uses China to deflect how bad as a leader he is in the US so to take heat off him, he needs a boggy man, it's known to work with stupid people lol.
But this is Sky News Aus, they are as fanatical as Fox News in the US or the Sun paper in the UK which doesn't report news but fanatical views and do you know how you can tell? Look at who owns all 3 of them, what's the odds that the views of all 3 would be more or less the same with a specific agenda?, in other words, they don't report the news, they report personal views of Rupert Murdoch, now if people are stupid enough to fall for that then good for them, they can stay poor, be taken advantage off and all that good stuff but forget trying to convince the smarter people that see through all that bullshit lol.
Beside, this coronavirus is their worse nightmare in so many ways that I doubt they even see why being as they are not the brightest out there lol.
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This is not strange, the moment countries start to open up again, things will start to kick off, that is to be expected and will likely continue for a while, as for the death count, well two things could explain that, one is that there is a lag effect from infection to death of around 3 weeks so deaths are likely going to go up but another factor is that we are likely better prepared for this pandemic then the first time so might be able to contain it better, but for now, it's too early to say.
The US is a bit of a different story in that the numbers are not really going down that much and infections and deaths are still quite high over there and have been since all this started but then they are finding it much harder to lock things down.
I think the real problem and this is mostly with western countries, we are finding it difficult to do hard lock downs and even when we do open up, we are finding it hard to deal with it, compare western countries to Asian countries and in Asian countries, you won't find many people without a mask in public, in the west it's the other way around, this and better discipline is why I suspect Asian countries are doing much better than western countries in dealing with this pandemic.
Also, Sweden isn't a good example, if you look at the overall population and their policies and then compare them to other countries near them like Finland and Norway, Sweden is actually doing really bad and we should remember that Sweden did do a lock down but it was up to the people to choose that, most played it safe but the death rates are far higher on a per capita basis in Sweden compared to Norway and Finland that did do a lock down, if bigger countries followed that example, the death toll could be crazy high.
Another factor on Hurd immunity is that Sweden have already said that only a small percentage of the population have that so that isn't likely the case in explaining what is going on, I suspect cases and death counts will rise in Sweden but they are out of sync with the rest of Europe just like America is because of different polices they choose so it will likely happen at a different time frame.
But honestly. I don't see what the solution is, on the one hand, if we do lock downs, it's going to be quite damaging but if we don't, a lot more people are likely going to die, I think it's a balancing act between the two with the intention of buying time so we can find a vaccine or other alternatives to reduce the death count of this virus but clearly this viruses isn't going to go away and we can't fully open up yet, we are also very likely going to get a second and maybe third wave before we are done with this if history is anything to go by so as much as we don't like it, I think we have to grin and bear it for the time being.
Another factor we should remember, a lot of the older generation of people are still staying at home whereas a lot more of the younger generation of people are going out, it's well known that you have a better chance of surviving this virus at a younger age and that likely explained why infections are rising a lot but deaths are not, at least not yet, death rates likely will rise in time.
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That's a bold statement, 40 years is a long time in politics and there are so many ways the Conservative party can mess up here, remember that Boris has made a lot of bold promises on Brexit and as we know, people have short memories on these thing, if Brexit goes south and the so called promise land of Brexit doesn't deliver or worse, it makes living standards worse for Brits or Scotland and Northern Ireland leaves the UK, it would look like a disaster for the Tory party and once the dust settles after 10 years or so, it could very well be the Conservative party that could become unelectable.
The good thing is about this win is that now the Conservative party have no excuses, they've got a majority, they've pushed Brexit the hardest and now they don't have to worry about Labour or any other party blocking anything in the House of Commons, there will be no excuses or ant blame game as once out of the EU there won't be, the EU can't get the blame, nor can Labour, everything that happens on Brexit now is firmly on the Tories so either they deliver a Brexit that delivers on the goods which is unlikely or people will quickly forget why they voted for them and pin the blame on the Tories for why things are.
At the end of the day, people are very fickle and have short memories, so now the Conservative Party have to deliver on this so called promised land they've been talking about and that is when the real entertainment begins.
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Not sure what Aus is thinking, they are a tiny country with little to no power, trying to make an enemy of China is one of the stupidest things they could do, after all, don't expect the US to defend you because they only do so if it's in their intrest, and they can profit from it, Aus is in a very weak position when it comes to China so my advice is to hit the reset button and try and get along with them in some way or form before the US drags you down because like it or not, China is a massive power and are only going to get bigger, the US on the other hand seem to be all over the place at the moment, so don't count on them to have your back, not with how quickly the world is changing.
By the way, why does Sky News Aus sound as fanatical as Fox News? oh right, Murdoch and they say they are reporting the news lol, just look at Sky News in the UK, it seems to be on a different planet compared to Sky New Aus, oh right, it's not own by Murdoch, say no more lol, news reporting indeed lol, more like views reporting of just one man lol.
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Putin is playing right into the hands of the EU, remember that they have been pushing to cut Russian oil and gas for a while now but have been finding it hard to do because of a few EU members, Russia by cutting the gas forces the issue.
The great thing about that is that it forces real change and yes there is a bit of short term pain but the long term benefits are massive, especially for countries that have little natural resources.
Basically, what Putin has done is speed up the change to alternative energy sources a lot faster than it would have been, EU countries were already pushing on that but now there won't be any foot dragging and there will be a lot more investments in those areas.
This is unfortunate for fossil producing countries because Putin might have shortened the life span of that resource by a decade or more which could wipe out trillions from those fossil producing nations, to make things worse, countries that produce little fossil fuels like the EU, Japan and so on could end up with a massive windfall of savings when they produce energy internally.
What makes this even better, the longer and higher the price of oil and gas goes, the bigger the revolution and quicker the change will be away from fossil fuels, the irony is in all this, it's in the interest of the fossil producing nations to bring prices down and stabilize the market and they've got a short window to do that in before it's too late for them and personally, I love what I'm seeing because this is how real change happens in a much shorter space of time and the beauty is of all this, EU countries are likely to be the front-runners in all this because they've got no choice now because of energy security reasons and with that, it's going to be very interesting to see the energy mix around the world and especially the EU over the next decade because we are very likely going to get changes that would normally take decades being done in less than a decade.
Who would have thought that Putin's war and threat would be the thing that gets us humans to really clean up our act on energy.
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