Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "Gas shortage and the war in Ukraine" video.
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The impression I'm getting going on what I've seen, Europe will be fine during winter, yes they'll have to tighten their belts a little this winter but we should remember that they are getting around half or more of their gas from other sources than Russia, also, a lot of the storage tanks are nearly full, put it all together and you'll probably won't notice much of a difference apart from the protest this winter from the public over the high energy prices, something that could happen around the world and not just in Europe.
After this winter, the real threat starts to go down a lot as we all adapt to this and I think, longer term, Russia is the one that's paying a high price here and for a few reasons, one, they've lost one of the richest markets in the world with the EU, two, using fossil energies as a political weapon, makes Russian natural resources far less valuable to them because a lot of the world won't want to buy too much from them in case Russia gets political with it, trust is hard to earn and that's probably Putin's biggest mistake here which will be damaging for at least a decade I suspect.
I think the real damaging part of all this is that Putin has awakened this clean energy revolution, that is very likely going to ween us off fossil fuels a lot quicker than it would have happened, especially in Europe as energy is now a security issue so a lot more countries are going to want to generate a lot more energy internal or inside the EU market, that good be damaging not just to Russia but any fossil producing nation as it could wipe out trillions in revenues from those countries.
Personally, I think Putin's actions have wiped out about 10-15 years of fossil fuel revenues on those countries and Putin has likely done more than the Greens could have possible done to get us to clean up our act around the world and all it took was the threat to energy security and high energy prices and with that, it's going to be very interesting to see the energy mix around the world in a decade and especially in the EU because I'm expecting some radical changes over that time.
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It's desperate times for Russia, they know they've already lost the European market and they know it's just a matter of time before most of Europe is sourcing oil and gas from alternative sources.
The problem for Russia, it's going to be very difficult to replace the European market because there isn't really any alternative rich markets the size of the EU to sell too, yes they can sell to China and India but these are poorer countries and will threaten Russia to reduce the price, also, those two countries won't want to buy too much from Russia because Putin has become political with energy resources, in other words, it would be crazy of China, India or anyone else to get too dependent on Russia with the games they are playing because Putin would likely play the same games with others to get them to bend to his will.
Basically, Putin's biggest mistake is energy trust, Russia isn't trusted any more and it's going to take years if not decades to get that trust back, that's going to be massively costly for Russia long term and I don't think they realize how damaging that is to Russia yet.
As for the EU, they'll be fine, gas storage are in a good state, they get more than half their gas from other sources than Russia and they will be likely to tighten their belts this winter, after that, things should start to ease.
In the meantime, more countries want to join the EU and NATO, there's real talk about further integration in the EU, especially on military, foreign policy and energy matters and there's a fair chance that we are going to see an energy revolution over the next decade, especially on clean energy thanks to Putin's actions in Ukraine.
What I find amusing in all this, someone like Putin that likes to think of himself as a smart man, how could he have got this so wrong? this is one of the biggest shooting in ones own feet I've ever seen.
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