Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "Bad assumptions and the belief in Russian victory" video.

  1. At first, I have to admit, I did think it would be an easy victory for Russia, but a lot of things have changed and a lot of weaknesses have been exposed on the Russian military. For one, the response from the west has been a lot tougher than anyone expected, more so Putin as he likely thought it would be a slap on the wrist, in reality, the west are hitting Russia hard with sanctions, military help to Ukraine and isolating Russia from much of the world, long term that is really damaging for Russia. Another factor is that Putin was betting on a short term war, the longer the war drags on, the more crippling it's going to be for Russia, not only in just the cost for Russia being in Ukraine but even the cost of losing European revenue on oil and gas sales which will bite over time. I think what a lot of us really misunderstand about Russia is that most looked at Russia's power based on its history, the truth is, Russia is a weak economy, it's got an economy in-between the size of Spain and Italy whiles having to cater to a lot more people, basically, too many people looked at Russia for what it was in the past and not what it is today, which is a weak power trying to lash it's tail and getting a harsh lesson in reality and the only thing that Russia has going for it is it's natural resources but even that isn't good because the moment Putin used that as a political weapon, you lose trust on the international market, basically, no one is going to want to be too dependent on Russia now in case they get political, so even thought the likes of China and India will buy cheap oil and gas from Russia, they'll likely make sure to not buy too much in case Putin plays games with them, that for me is Putin's biggest mistake as trust is hard to come by and takes a long time to repair. As for Putin, I see no way for him to get out of this, he's built an image of himself in Russia as being a hard man, backing down in the war would make him look weak in the eyes of the Russian people and could actually be the end of him, the problem is for Putin, the longer this war drags out, the same results are very likely as an uprising builds in Russia, we might be seeing early signs of that already in Russia and we should remember that the Russian people are being protected by that rainy day fund that Putin built up, that will run out which on top of European countries moving away from their oil and gas, that's when things will really get bad for Russia. If that's not bad enough, it looks like Ukraine will be better armed going into winter, meaning the cost of the war for Russia is likely going to get higher. I do also get a sense that Putin has already lost this war and now it's just a matter of running down the clock, this is under the assumption that the west keeps training, arming and giving intelligence to Ukraine which is very likely as the alternative in letting Russia get away with this is likely another invasion of another country, the price has to be so high for Russia that they'll think twice next time, hence why it looks like the west are in this for the long term.
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