Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "Russia Heads Into an Economic Abyss" video.

  1. Yep I agree, that bridge has been cross now with the threats Putin has done that I think they've lost European countries as customers on oil and gas longer term and even if they managed to gain it back longer term, it will be too little too late as European countries are very likely going to push full steam ahead on alternative energy sources, why would they go back to Russia at all now? The same for China and India, yes they are taking advantage of Russia's weakness in getting cheap oil and gas from them but China and India won't want to be too dependent on Russia because they likely know Putin can use that energy as a political weapon against them, this is the problem when you lose trust, you end up hurting yourself in the long run. The west are playing the long game, sanctions on Russia which by the way, usually take 2 to 3 years to bite and considering the damage being done to Russia already, that's going to get a lot worse in time, then we have the European countries and especially the EU countries, as they shift away from Russian oil and gas, that's hurting to be another nail in the coffin for Putin because there are no other alternative rich markets to buy that stuff from and Russia is finding out that if they sell to poor countries, they expect a massive discount because they see Russia being in a weak position here and are taking advantage of them. As long as the west keeps arming, training and giving intelligence to Ukraine, that's likely going to do massive amounts of damage to Russia over the long run and that is unfortunate for Ukraine as it drags the war out but longer term, Ukraine will likely be in a better position, EU and NATO membership will open up, the west will likely give Ukraine a lot of aid to rebuild and if they join the EU, the EU will help to develop the economy, so in the short term, things look grim but Ukraine are likely going to come out of this a lot stronger thanks to the west and whiles all that is going on, the west will continue to isolate Russia from the world and that is only going to get a lot worse for Russia once the EU countries diversify enough oil and gas away from Russia, basically, the EU and US will put a lot of pressure on China, India and other to reduce buying cheap oil and gas from Russia and as those two countries are far more dependent on the west than Russia with trade, it's easy to see how that's likely to go and even if it doesn't go how the west wants, the west will likely look for cheap labour in other countries, a lot of countries around the world, especially in Africa would love to steal that business away from China and India, so the west have a lot of options whereas China and India don't have any other rich markets to sell too.
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  2. It's highly unlikely that western governments are going to trust Russia after this, especially European countries on energy matters, Russia has played too many games that now European countries in the EU are likely going to go full steam ahead with the intention of killing the fossil industry by generating its own energy internally and all because of energy security. Russia might have shortened the life span of the fossil industry by a decade or more, which is worth trillions to the countries that produce that and the more unstable the market stays and the higher energy prices are, the quicker and bigger that change will be against the fossil industry, especially in the west, so the clock is ticking against the fossil industry and the only thing they can do is create stability in the market and lower prices and fast but even then, I think that might be too late for the European markets, they've lost a lot of trust in that I think they will ramp up energy production at home a lot more over the next decade. As for Russia, there isn't really any way for them to win here, the west will continue to supple Ukraine with arms and intelligence that will bleed Russian economy, whiles the EU countries will continue to reduce buying gas and oil from Russia, once they're done that, they will likely go after China and India with the aim of pressuring them to stop buying cheap oil and gas from Russia, after all, the west isn't doing all this only for others to prop up the Russian economy and as China and India depends a lot more on western markets, they can't afford to get on the wrong side of that, truth is, Russia isn't that important to the west, China or India and the problem for Russia is that it can't really find any other rich markets to sell that stuff too as it's alienated them all, meaning it becomes worthless or it has to sell it a lot cheaper. Russia's economy is already hurting quite bad and this is before the European countries have moved away from buying oil and gas from them, it's only going to get a lot worse with Russia with the real aim is to isolate Russia from the world, the end result, even if they won in Ukraine which looks unlikely, they've actually lost overall, Putin likes to think of himself as a smart leader but he's messed up big time here and because of his arrogance, he's digging his own grave, the question is, how much are the Russian people willing to be dragged down with him. As for the sanctions, I think many misunderstand how sanctions usually work, they tend to take 2 to 3 years to really bite, it's too early on that but even now, the Russian economy is hurting bad, the countries in the EU will quickly adapt away from Russia which will hurt Russia even more, it's a bit of short term pain but it's just that, short term, for Russia, it's long term and the irony is, Putin is speeding up that process by cutting gas and oil sooner rather than later, forcing EU countries to adapt sooner and quicker, this hurts the European countries in the short term but it will hurt Russia a lot more and be longer term, truth is, it's desperation from Putin as he knows the European countries are moving away so he wants to be seen as the one forcing that issue, in the end, the end result is a much weaken Russian economy and power whiles the Europeans will adapt over the next 2 years and good luck to Russia selling too much of that oil and gas to others around the world, once you break trust, no country, even friendly country will want to be too dependent on Russia in case the likes of Putin will use energy as a political weapon to get what he wants, Putin has shot himself in the foot and is dragging the Russian people down with him, the question is, when will the penny drop that they see that, I suspect it will be when it's too late and the major damage is done for them.
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