Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "Former Europe Minister on Brexit negotiations: 'The UK has to be more realistic'" video.
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@darrenbellenger1 Remember, it was the UK that started this game and it was the UK asking for unrealistic demands, the EU didn't want to make it a game but they are just humouring the UK government now because there is little point in talking any more, in other words, letting the clock run down, letting the UK bluster whiles not really giving the UK government what it really wants, the worse that can happen is hard Brexit but the more likely thing that will happen is the UK government will fold at the last moment like they've done about 3 or 4 times already over the last few years.
At the end of the day, the UK isn't that big of a deal any more to the EU and it's members now they are dealing with this pandemic, but for the UK, Brexit has a far bigger impact on us so it's still a big deal even thought we are dealing with the pandemic as well, we can't afford to deal with both whereas the EU can, especially if it's the UK that choose to go that route because politically speaking, it's hard to blame them where it's very easy for us Brits to blame our own government for any hardship ahead.
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The irony is, a no deal for the EU could work out really well for them, any economic hardship can be clouded in with this virus pandemic and it would do far more damage to the UK then it would to the EU, as for the UK, they will find it very hard to cloud the damage of Brexit in with this virus because one, the UK choose to do that damage, two, the damage will be far greater for the UK then the EU, three, Scotland and many remainers will keep reminding the public on every little account of damage this UK government did, it will also speed up the process of them leaving the UK union.
We all know once the economic hardship kicks in from Brexit and the virus, the Brexiteers as well as remainers will turn on this government, Brexiteers especially because they always deflect blame away from themselves, they'll try to blame the EU but the EU won't care as the UK is out, then they'll go after the UK government because that's what they do, the Tories can't afford for the economic damage from Brexit and the virus to really hurt the public before the next election or midterm elections, it would likely do massive damage to the government.
Because of all that, Boris will likely fold near the end of June because this government has always been about trying to bluff the EU into giving what the UK wants but when they don't, the UK folds, we've done it about 3 or 4 times over the last few years so why would this be any different? all the EU has to do is sit back and wait for the UK to move.
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@darrenbellenger1 We'll see, it's only a few weeks out and we can already see some panic setting in with Boris and some of the Tories as the EU isn't really moving much, bluster from Boris can only go so far on Brexit just as it's only gone so far on this pandemic, Boris is in for the fight of his life here and so are the Tories, they can't afford any more economic damage because both remainers and Brexiteers will want their blood.
In any case, I really hope they do go for the hardest of Brexit, the reason for that is because companies have little wiggle room to survive even before this virus, with it and hard Brexit, likely a lot more will go out of business that didn't need to do and that is when the entertainment begins because that when the government really gets it's in the neck, so far it's easy to throw money around like the government is doing, but wait till we have to pay it back when the economy really starts to hit.
As for the EU, they can weather the storm far better than us by pooling resources together, they also don't have to worry about trade links with each other or it's trade deals around the world, the UK does and what makes it worse because of this virus pandemic, many countries are likely going to become more isolated, especially the US, that will make it much harder for the UK to get a good trade deal from the US because they will want to protect jobs back home and open up markets for them in other countries, in other words, a trade deal with the US and UK will likely be very one sided in favour of the US now.
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@darrenbellenger1 That doesn't make much sense, it won't matter where we are when it comes to automation, the impact on jobs is going to be massive, in fact it's actually back to front, island nations are likely to fare worse because of the trade links, the EU, US and China have a massive advantage because of their market size and being land locked, the UK for instance would be more expensive to get goods from than say France is if everything was equal, but we know things are not going to be equal, the EU will have a bigger advantage because it's the bigger player making the rules which the UK either has to abide by or spit their dummy out.
Any walls to trade is never a good thing so WTO trade isn't good for the UK or any country and given the choice, most countries would prefer less walls to trade but as we know, it's the bigger players making those rules as the UK is finding out with trade terms with the EU and US, the UK isn't dictating terms, the EU and US is.
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