Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "Can Europe Really Give Up Russian Gas?" video.
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Russia has far more to lose than others have, think about it, EU countries can adapt and find other sources of energy or even generate a lot more back home, it only takes a few short years to do as well, Russia on the other hand will find it very difficult to find other rich markets and even the likes of China and India have Russia over a barrel in that they are taking advantage of Russia by pressuring them to give oil and gas dirt cheap.
The reality is, until Europe finds another secure alternative energy source, energy prices are likely going to stay high around the world because of the way the international energy market works, in other words, as Europe sources energy from the rest of the world, it's bumping up energy prices all over the world, hence why countries far away are seeing energy price spikes and high inflation.
This is likely going to last another year or two before things settle down, but lets not kid ourselves, this is hurting countries that are not in the EU pretty bad so it's better we all find a solution and not blame games and personally, I think we could end up seeing a renewable revolution over the next decade, especially in the EU as I suspect a lot more countries are going to want to source their own energy internally.
To make things worse for Russia, as the EU moves more away from Russia on oil and gas, I suspect the EU and US will go after China, India and others that are buying cheap oil and gas from Russia, after all, there's no way they are going through this only for them to prop up the Russian economy and unfortunately for Russia, the west is far more valuable to China and India than Russia is.
All this takes a bit of time, just like the sanctions which what most don't understand about sanctions, they usually take about 2 to 3 years to really bite and I am surprised how hard the Russian economy is being hit considering it's still early days and Russia is eating into it's reserves, basically, the real damage for Russia is yet to come.
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That doesn't make any sense, the reality is, by Putin reducing gas to Europe, Europe is giving up Russia gas, not by choice but the end result is the same.
As for long term, only an idiot would say they couldn't give up their gas as that is always possible given time.
In any case, this is a good thing, real change in the world happens when there is real need to change, in other words, the higher and longer energy prices stay high, the quicker the world will adapt to killing the fossil industry off.
History is a good indicator that when energy prices spike, it doesn't last long, maybe 2 or 3 years because that industry knows that the longer it last, the quicker they kill their own industry off, basically, people won't just put up with high prices, they will put a lot more pressure on governments to find an alternative, that's the last thing the fossil industry wants as that could shorter the fossil industry by a decade or more which would be a loss of trillions to those countries that produce it.
So a bit of short term pain for a lot of gain in the long run, the pain is really on the countries that are too dependent on fossil fuels.
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I think it's stupid to think the EU can't survive without Russia oil and gas, clearly they can, but in the short term, it does mean doing a few cut backs until they adapt.
Russia on the other hand will find it difficult to adapt, they are alienating all the rich markets around the world whiles Russia is putting its self in a position that the likes of China and India can take advantage of Russia by pressuring them into selling oil and gas dirt cheap, that's not the position Russia wants to find its self in because globally, it weakens their position whiles China could have them under the thumb.
Another factor is that China and India won't want to buy too much from Russia in case Russia gets political if those countries become a bit too dependant, that's the problem when you lose trust, hardly anyone will want to depend on them too much, not even friends like China and India but that won't stop those countries taking advantage of Russia which is more or less what they are doing.
So yes, Russia will find other buyers but the problem is, Russia can't sell at the same rates it could to rich countries and this is all assuming the EU and US doesn't go after those countries that do buy from Russia, after all, would the likes of China and India want to risk a trade war with the EU and US, reality is, those markets are far more important to China and India than Russia is and to make things worse, a few policy changes in the EU and US could make the likes of China and India a very unappealing market to invest in, the EU and US knows they can source cheap labour in other countries in Africa and I suspect they would love to steal that business from China and India whereas China and India have very limited options in finding rich markets to sell goods too.
The thing is in all that, it takes time but the truth is, the EU and US hold the better hand in all this, in fact, Russia being desperate with cutting oil and gas isn't because Putin is being smart, he just wants to get the foot in the door before the EU countries cut it all out anyway, basically, it was going to happen regardless of what Putin did, the irony is, Putin's actions will speed that process up, which is great news because it's these moments where real change can happen.
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