Youtube hearted comments of Paul Aiello (@paul1979uk2000).

  1. A lot of what Germany said makes a lot of sense and reforms are needed to the EU before it can expand, otherwise hardly anything will get done with so many countries and only one can block things from happening. I'm also starting to come to the conclusion that if the EU can't get these reforms done at an EU level, they really should start focusing a lot more on the Euro Zone, they are more likely to want to make the EU work and more likely to want to do reforms than countries that are dragging their feet on the outside of the Euro, now that's not to say that all the none Euro Zone countries are like that, some are not which don't qualify to join the Euro but it's clear that others are not in the Euro because they don't want this integration and are mostly in the EU for economic benefits which is fine but not when it's holding the rest back. So yeah, either the EU needs to go multi speed or a lot more focus on the Euro Zone is needed if they can't get these reforms done at an EU level, the last decade or two have been a waste with not much reforms and integration in the EU and Europeans can't afford to stay like that with a rising China and a US that's only getting bigger, the simple reality is, we either change or we're going to get pushed aside by the bigger powers and the only way we are going to compete with the US and China long term is if the EU countries integrate a lot more and work closer together, the alternative is that EU countries will get pushed aside on political, economic and social matters, that will weaken living standards and our voice around the world.
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  2. I don't know, I'm British and thought it was a crazy idea that the UK left the EU, I can't see us joining any time soon for a number of reasons. The main reason is the EU and it's members, it's highly likely that even if the UK wanted to join, the EU or one of its members would block us joining for at least 2 decades or more, after all, not much has changed in the UK and the UK has always been a troublesome member, if the EU was to let us back in, they are going to want to see some major shifts in how the political system sees the EU projects, as well as the media and public, all that takes a lot of time to change and for now, there is no real incentive for the EU to want us back after how the UK has behaved. With that said, the UK could join the single market and custom union, that would protect the economy and living standards but the UK wouldn't have a say in EU law making that the UK would have to abide by, maybe that's something the UK will just have to accept to get back on good terms with the EU and it's members. Truth be told, with everything that's going on in the UK with Scotland, Northern Ireland and even Wales talking more about independence, it's going to be hard to predict the next 10 years for the UK because unless this government gets its act together, I can see one or two of the UK members leaving the UK union over the next decade. Basically, as long as this Tory lot is in power, there is no hope in getting on good terms with the EU because they are going out of their way to pick a fight with the EU and then we have Labour that are too weak and scared to death to even mention Brexit that things don't bold well for the UK. The only silver lining in all this is the Tories themselves, if they keep going the way they are doing, keep protecting Boris and the hard line Brexiteers, they could implode by the next election, that could open up the door for closer ties between the EU and UK but I suspect that would only be the case if the Tories get humiliated at the elections which they might be heading in that direction and if the Tories are smart, they would get rid of Boris and the hardline Brexiteers in the party because they are dragging the party down and personally, I hope the Tories are dumb and stick with Boris so they can sink.
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  7. Whichever direction the EU goes, there's a lot more talk about it in the EU and among its members, it also looks like momentum and support is building to do some real change and as for when there are serious talks of treaty change, I suspect 2025 onwards with the gauntlet more or less being set to no later than 2030. The reason I say that is because, if there is no progress happening by then and there are no real signs of new members being able to join the EU by 2030, a lot of these countries could give up on the idea of joining the EU and look at other options, after all, they are not going to wait forever. But this isn't a blank cheque for these new countries that wants to join the EU, there's still a lot of work and reforms they need to do, but the EU needs to get its act together and show that the door is actually open for these countries to join, it would encourage more reforms in those countries, whiles at the same time, give the EU and its members enough time to discuss and reform the EU, so it can work better internally and with new future members and I think 2030 is being seen as the limit, that if there are no signs of change, no hope of these countries joining, I suspect a lot of them will give up and find other solutions away from the EU. So the clock is ticking on both side that I think serious talks need to start happening by around 2025, even if it takes months or even years to come to a conclusion, there are needs to be signs that progress is happening, after all, just look at Turkey, they more or less abandon the idea of joining the EU because real progress wasn't happening and fair enough, a big part of that problem was Turkey not doing enough reforms, but part of the problem is the EU and some of its members more or less shutting the door, many of these eastern European countries feel like they are in the same boat that joining the EU is a pipe dream, if many of these countries act on that, the EU could lose a lot of support from these countries, which will harm it's future plans of expanding in those regions, which longer term will hurt EU and it's members interest, especially if the EU wants to compete with the US and China long term. To put it bluntly, the EU and it's members have been wasting too much time over the last decade and now are playing catch up and need to find solutions to make this work, and there are many options if the political will is there to make it happen. Also, let's be blunt about this, you can't have economic integration without political integration, if we want to reap the benefits of further economic integration, we're going to need further integration to set standard laws, rules and regulations throughout the EU countries, on top of that, if European countries really want to compete better with the US and China, we're going to need further political and economic integration, especially on the political side, because that is where we are weak and both the US and China already take advantage of that, whereas it's a lot harder for them to do that on the economic side because we are a lot more integrated there, which makes us stronger. Also, when it comes to integration, it's not an absolute and in one direction, there are many things that can be done at a local level and done better, and not so much national level but local city level, but there are also many areas that are better being done at a supernational level with the EU, especially on the economy and external political matters and it's a fine line in getting the right balance, but things will need to change if the EU and it's members want to remain competitive with the US and China long term and I suspect it's going to be external forces like the US and China that's going to dictate the direction the EU goes, mainly because of the reality check that's needed for us to compete with the bigger players, so unless that reality changes, I don't see many alternatives but to integrate further and the European elections is not going to change that reality, regardless of outcome, all it can do is delay it. The alternatives if Europeans do go in the opposite direction, it's going to be a lot harder for the EU and it's members to protect its political, economic and social interest, which over the long run could weaken many of those areas as pressure from both the US and China builds on them trying to push their values on us, for now, we are strong enough to push that back, but without further integration, I think it could be hard for Europeans to protect these values and let's be blunt, the US have tried many times to push it's own values and standards on Europeans, they've failed because the EU is strong enough to stand up to them, but that can change in the future and likely will if we don't change, basically with further integration and more new EU members.
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  8. I've been keeping up with events but this puts it into context what's really been achieved in the EU, it's been a busy year. As for the EU corruption scandal that's going on, I don't see that as a negative, in fact, it's a good thing, because it allows the EU to clean house, we should be a lot more worried about corruption that goes undetected around the world and now this scandal is going on, it's likely going to scare some that want to do corruption in the EU because the spotlight is on them, so the scandal might look bad on the surface but overall it's a good thing to clean things up and as the saying goes, never let a crisis go to waste. As for EU gas storage, the EU countries are doing a lot better than expected, it peaked at around 95% and is currently at 83.5% with it actually going up over the last week, something I didn't expect deep into winter and if that continues, it doesn't look like gas is going to be an issue for this winter or the next winter and I suspect the reason gas reserves are going up and not down is because of the mild winter but more importantly, the reduction of gas consumption that's happened over the last year, around 26% I think it was and I suspect EU countries will reduce gas consumption by around 10-15% this year, the high energy prices are pushing consumers and businesses to become more energy efficient and that could put the EU economy in good standing once energy prices stabilize as the overall economy will be a lot more efficient. Anyway, it's going to be interesting what this year will bring, I suspect a lot more renewable energy will be installed and more work on integration in some areas.
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  9. I highly doubt Italy would leave the EU, they stand to lose far more than the UK is losing, being out of the EU, mainly because Italy has an unstable political and economic system, them being out of the EU wouldn't do them any favours when it comes to investment in the country, especially as having easy access to the EU market is a big advantage. What we really should remember is that the UK is a special case, they've never had the vision of a united Europe, they joined the EEC whiles more or less lying to its people about what the project is about, a lot of the other EU countries might have issues with how it's run, but none really want to rip the project apart, which is more or less what the UK wanted, any issues other EU members have with the project is more about wanting to change the project, to serve their interest better, this is a massive difference on the UK compared to every other EU country, even Hungary and Poland were they complain, is more about wanting to change the project, not rip it apart. The truth is, the UK never wanted in the EU in the first place, it's always been a troublesome country and had by far the most op-outs out of any EU country, a common theme with pretty much every other EU country is that they want change and reforms done to the EU, many are not happy with how it's currently run, but that's a long way from wanting to leave the union and hence, we see the same pattern with Eurosceptic parties throughout the EU, they tell the people things like wanting to leave the EU or the Euro, but once in power, they change their tune as reality kicks in, we saw that in Italy over the last few years, only for the current government to tone it down a lot once in power, because if they went thought with what they were saying, it would be them that would get it in the neck once it impacts the people, in that sense, they are smarter than the Conservative party in the UK, or maybe, they saw what was going on in the UK with Brexit and thought, this isn't for us, probably why support has been going up for the EU in every EU country, and ironically, even in the UK. My point I'm getting at, it's easy for the party that's not in power to say they'll do this and that for the people, it's another thing delivering on that, hence why opposition parties promise more than they can deliver, and if they win power, they tone it down as reality kicks in.
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  10. I don't think the EU needs to follow an existing system that is out there, it's a new project that's work in progress and I think it would make more sense to create a new system whiles looking at the good and bad of all the other major systems around the world and try and improve on that, especially when connecting with the people because a lot of systems seem quite distant from the public, which I don't think is healthy for a democracy. I also think mandatory voting should be a thing as we tend to see that with lower turn out, it allows more of the radical elements in society to gain power which isn't good for anyone, also, considering governments impact us all, it makes sense that we all should vote, we also need to find ways to get people more involved in politics, I find it crazy how so many either don't vote or even know what they are voting on which isn't good for a democracy because a democracy is only as good as the people involved, hence the mandatory voting part, this should include the media that should be reporting on the facts and not fabricating the news as we see in the UK and US. As for the EU project, I think it's only a matter of time before it becomes a lot more integrated into some kind of united union that feels more like a single country than union that it is today and the reason for that is the US, China and a rising India, some will say Russia but let's be honest, Russia is a dying power that's lashing out, a bit like the UK is, after all, Russia has an economy that's only a bit bigger than Spain, in other words, they are no match for the EU, US and China if they put that economic might to any venture they choose. Anyway, I think it will happen and not because of want but because of need, realistically, if European countries want to protect out political, economic and social interest, we're going to have to band together a lot more than we've already done and I'm saying that as a Brit and even I know even with Brexit that we need the EU. The alternative is a weak union which will lead to other major powers like the US and China taking advantage of Europeans and very likely watering down many of our standards like food standards, workers rights and so on, something the US has already tried to do with food standards but are not in a position to do it yet, that can change if we Europeans don't get our act together and don't think it can't because major powers tend to bully smaller ones to get what they want, the UK might be a prime example of that with other trading nations getting far better terms out of the UK then they could when the UK was part of the EU. Anyway, I always feel it makes sense to have as much power at a local level in areas where it makes sense and I don't mean at a country level but more region level that's closer to the people of that region, power should only be reserve at a higher level when it makes sense, so the military, foreign policy, currency, boarder control, energy security and other things like setting high standards in many areas like workers rights, food standards and so on, it could be a 3 tier system where powers that make sense at a local level should be used there, then at a national level or state level if you prefer and then a supernational level like the EU and clearly a lot of work is still needed.
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  11. I think realistically, before the EU can bring in new members, it's going to need to reform the EU, especially on vetoes and majority voting, otherwise, more members will make the system unworkable. I think with vetoes, either it needs to go or it needs to be based on a percentage of countries to block something, not where it is now where anyone member can hold the rest to ransom, it's easy to see how that can create grid lock as more members join. The second is majority voting, that could be done on population size and amount of members that vote a given way, it could even be done in a way where you need a percentage of the population and members to pass or veto a motion. I think treaty change needs to happen over the next 3 years and whiles that is going on, the countries wanting to join the EU, can do the reforms needed to join, after all, joining the EU is no quick process and how quick it happens usually depends on the reforms the country does. In the case of Ukraine, a few things need to happen, the above reforms of the EU, the war in Ukraine needs to come to an end and a lot of reforms, the reforms part is probably much easier to achieve now thanks to Putin because any government in Ukraine will use the threat of Russia to push reforms through, they will also make the ones holding out feel guilty into pushing the reforms through, in other words, it should be much easier for Ukraine to do the reforms needed to join the EU then it was before the war, still the war will need to come to an end before that can start. But let's not kid ourselves, it's no quick process, there is no such thing as fast tracking a country in like Ukraine wants, how quickly a country joins is really up to how quickly the country in question does the reforms needed to join, some countries are quite fast on that, others drag their feet. One thing is certain, thanks to Putin's aggression, more countries want to join the EU than they did before the war, the EU is also more open to expending eastwards, that in time is likely going to get other countries to want to join but like I said above, first the EU needs to reform its self before any country can join, Hungary and Poland are proof that change is needed, which is ironic because Poland and Hungary are the two countries that want the EU to let these other countries in and yet they are the biggest roadblock from letting it happen, especially with Hungary. Also, what is it with some countries that seem to think that if they complain a lot or try to guilt them into speeding up the process of letting them in? That doesn't work, the EU is a very rules based organization, if any country wants to join, it really is up to the country in question how quickly they can join, in other words, do the reforms needed and solve the other issues they have, especially boarder issues, it's not magic, it's just common sense and hence why some countries join much faster then others.
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  25. The thing is with democracy, it's only as good as the people in it, how well they take part in it and how informed they are, we are seeing a lot of flaws in democracy around the world because of how badly informed a lot of people are on things. As for Poland and Hungary, both countries want the EU to expand, the EU is highly unlikely to expand without reforms to the veto and majority voting rules, if some countries like Poland and Hungary keeps blocking any change, they risk being isolated further that their power will be weakened, it's highly unlikely that the other countries will continue to be held to ransom over one or two countries and the rest will likely get creative in finding solutions around it, something the EU and its members are very good at doing. Personally, I think we need a multi speed EU with the Euro Zone being the main focus of power, after all, countries that join that are more likely to be countries that want to make the project work compared to the ones that don't want to join it and to be blunt, the Euro Zone is by far the biggest group of political and economic power in the EU and things get really bad where some countries continue to block things, it wouldn't surprise me if the Euro Zone countries split from the others and leave the rest to fend for themselves. Hungary is playing a very risky game of isolating its self whereas Poland might have a lifeline thanks to Ukraine in getting back into the fold and personally, I think Hungary is a loss cause that needs to be kicked out of the EU.
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  28. I'm all for a multi-speed EU, but there might be a few problems with this. On the political integration side of things, if there were an inner core of countries that can integrated further, the balance of power in the EU countries will shift dramatically in favour of those countries that choose to integrate, whiles the remaining countries are more or less pushed to the sideline as most of the big decision are done by the inner core, would the outer core countries feel comfortable about that? I highly doubt it. Then on the economic front, you can have a multi-speed EU, we more or less already have that with EU countries and countries like Norway, Switzerland and Iceland, but the problem with this is that you can't have an economic union without a political union that enforces the rules for all, otherwise you would have true free trade with each member making up their own rules to favour themselves, hence why those 3 countries I said above have to follow a lot of EU rules and regulations whiles having little to no say in making those rules, and if you want true open economic trade, you have to have a lot of political rules in place so it's a level playing field for all the members, otherwise it would be a mess. With all that said, I'm all for a multi-speed EU, just for the factor so some holdout countries stop holding back the EU and pro EU countries, but realistically, it will overtime likely focus far more powers and decision-making on those inner core countries that choose to integrate, especially as they are more likely to be by far the bigger player and likely to speak more with one voice compared to the rest, because of that, it would likely push the outer core countries to the fringes, whiles also putting pressure on those countries to want to join the inner core countries, basically, it would be far worse for the outer core countries then what it's like for countries like Norway and Switzerland now, whiles being a lot better for the countries that choose to integrate. With all that said, I think this needs to happen to get things moving, or to put it in more simple terms, to hell with the countries that keep dragging their feet at a time when we can't afford to do so with the rise of China and a hostile US, we need a strong EU, whichever form it takes and the Eurosceptics are hurting all our interest in EU countries by holding us back, hence why the likes of Trump and Putin loves the Eurosceptic movement, they are easy to take advantage off with the aim of dividing us Europeans into becoming weaker, something Trump and Putin plays on, so does China to a less degree.
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