Comments by "Terje Oseberg" (@terjeoseberg990) on "CNBC Television"
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Well, Musk did say, "considering". I think that means that he's just thinking about it. So, whether funding was secured or not, it's just something he's, "considering". In other words, he wasn't serious about it, but might become serous about it.
I believe the stock went up because of the news about the Saudis buying 5% of Tesla on the open market and has nothing to do with Musk's tweet. And now it's going down because of the SEC investigation. So, if anything, it's the SEC that has influenced the stock price, not Musk's tweet.
Maybe the SEC should be investigated for stock manipulation.
My theory could easily be proven by checking the time of Musk's tweet and the timing of the news about the Saudis and when the stock first started going up.
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Alexander Hamilton, I think what's happening is that they're seeing these very wealthy "successful" people on the media talking about how shorting Tesla is a good idea. People like Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel, and Steve Eisman. They believe the nonsense that these people are spewing without fully understanding any of it and they're jumping on the bandwagon and shorting the stock themselves. When enough of these people short the stock at once, it does cause a dip in the stock price. But what really makes it volatile is when the stock goes up, these people get scared and buy. The stock price then overshoots it's target, and then Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel, and Steve Eisman short some more shares at the overinflated price caused by all the smaller shorts. Then, after the stock price normalizes, and the stock drops on some bad news, those three and a few more secretly buy back their positions and wait for some more good news. All the little guys are getting played and they don't even know it. So they blame their losses on Musk. Then they get all pissed off and hate Tesla and Musk. When really they should hate Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel, and Steve Eisman for manipulating them into making a very risky investment.
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Frank Speaking, I'm pretty good at fixing cars, and most everyone who knows me knows this. Therefor I've had the opportunity to buy cars with very few problems for very cheap.
The first was a friend's girlfriend's car. She wanted to trade it in for another car because it was having some issues. The dealer told her she needed a new battery, a new alternator and many other things that I can't remember. It amounted to $3,000 worth of work. She wanted to trade it in so they offered her $300 for it.
So my friend calls me and tells me that they offered her $300 for her car and that I should go look at it. I went and looked, and it was a pretty nice little car, so I bought it for $500. I drove straight to Kragen Auto Parts and bought a new alternator, battery, and a whole bunch of other stuff to "repair" this car.
When I got home and started working on it, I noticed that the drivers door was a bit crooked, so the door didn't shut right. It wasn't pushing the button that turns off the light so the light was draining the battery. I straightened the door and couldn't find any other problems with the car. A few days later I returned all the crap I had bought to "repair" the car and continued to drive that car for about 5 years with no other repairs until I was rear ended and had to toss the car.
So basically they wanted $3000 to unloosen the door hinges, straighten the door, then retighten them.
Another time a guy at work in the cube next to me told me nearly the same story about his Saturn SL2. The dealer wanted $3000 in repairs and had offered his brother $350 for the car. His brother was upset with the dealer and didn't want to sell them the car for $350. When the guy described the problem to me, I told him that he needed a new coolant temperature sensor. It costs $20 and takes about 5 minutes to replace. My girlfriend at the time had the same car and it had the same problem, so I know what I was talking about.
So, this guy called his brother to tell him and his brother decided that he didn't want to bother with it, but also didn't want to sell the car to the dealer. He said he would sell it to me for $350, so I went and bought it, changed the sensor, and never repaired another thing on the car.
Both of these cars were the result of two different dealers trying to pull the same scam on two different people who wouldn't have any of it and would rather give me a good deal than some assholes at a dealership.
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I also keep seeing this bogus claim that it will cost $70 billion for "the buyout". When did Musk ever say anything about a buyout? He didn't. He said that all current shareholders will have the opportunity to maintain their investment in Tesla. So how many are actually going to sell? Well, we know for a fact that Musk isn't going to sell his 20% because he said so.
Musk said that he estimates that 2/3rd of current shareholders will keep their shares. Well, there are about 170 million outstanding shares. And there are 35 million shares sold short. That means that there are 205 million shares owned by someone. (The short sellers sold their shorts to someone who believes that they own their shares, right?)
So, 2/3 of 205 million is about 136.7 million shares that won't be sold and 68.3 million that have to be bought. Well, 35 million of those will have to be bought by the short sellers who will be forced to buy them back, right? That leaves only 33.3 million shares that need to be bought to complete the transaction. That amounts to $14 billion, not the $70 billion that people keep claiming. So, why do they keep claiming that this is a $70 billion deal when it's not? And that this will be the biggest deal in history and nobody has that kind of money.
I did the same calculation for 25% selling instead of 1/3 and I come up with $6.825 billion required to complete the transaction.
If 1/5 of the shareholders sell, it'll cost $2.52 billion.
if 1/6 of the shareholders sell, then, well 1/6 is less than 35 million so there will still be $350 million of shorted stocks. I guess 833,000 shares won't be able to be converted to the fund. That means that it's actually possible that it's impossible for everyone who wants to will be able to keep their shares. If that happens, how will they pick who doesn't get to keep their shares? Will Tesla issue 833,000 new shares so that everyone can keep them? That would raise $350 million. To be fair, that's what I believe that Tesla should do in the event that not enough people want to sell.
So, it's actually possible that Tesla need no funding to take Tesla private and it's even possible that the only way they can be fair is to issue more shares so everyone can keep their investment in Tesla.
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No, you're wrong. Not all shares would need to be purchased. A private company with fewer than 2,000 shareholders that is private is not regulated by the SEC. This is Musk's goal. So there would have to be fewer than 2,000 shareholders.
The big institutional investors, Musk, and all the other large shareholders will be able to keep their shares as they are.
The small investors would have to sell their shares and purchase shares of a fund. This fund will serve as a single large shareholder making the total number of shareholders less than 2,000.
So, you're right that the small shareholders would have to sell their shares and pay capital gains tax, then repurchase shares of the fund. But that's all you're right about.
Tesla won't go under because the Tesla cult is way too big. Many of them are on the waiting list for a Model 3, and many more are waiting until the there is no longer a waiting list. Tesla will be able to sell as many Model 3s as they can make for at least the next 3 years. By then they'll have the Model Y, the semi truck, and they'll be working on the Model 4 or something.
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Alexander Hamilton, Sounds like you're talking about Bob Lutz. That fool probably doesn't even know how a carburetor works, and probably couldn't figure out how to fix is own car or replace a blown head gasket. He somehow thinks that just because he was the CEO of GM that he knows everything. Has he ever designed an engine? A part of an engine? Any part of a car whatsoever? I bet not. He probably doesn't even know how an internal combustion engine works. And then he's going to say that Tesla is a joke? The guy is completely ignorant.
Check this out.
Tesla's current debt: $10 billion.
They've raised at total of $19 billion in capital.
They borrowed $13.5 billion and raised $3.9 billion by issuing shares.
Stock options and warrants come to $762 million and $562 million respectively..
13,500+3,900+762+562 = 18,724 ($19 billion)
So, they've raised $19 billion and currently owe $10 billion and they currently have $640 million in cash.
Let's say that they borrowed $13.5 billion and then issued shares and sold them for $3.9 billion and then used all the money from selling the shares to pay off the money they borrowed. They would then owe $9.6 billion. Then let's say that they used the $600 million to pay down the $9.6 billion. That would leave them owing $8.8 billion.
They would be left with no cash and owing $8.8 billion. Therefor, where did all that money go?
Well, I just looked it up and they currently have total assets of $27.9 billion.
27.9-8.8 = 19.1 billion
That means that somehow Tesla has accumulated $19.1 billion of value by borrowing money and doing something with it. What the hell kind of magic did Tesla perform in order to lose money on every car they've sold and still generate $19.1 billion?
So now let's take that $19.1 billion and divide it by the number of cars they've sold. They just reached 200,000 cars right?
$19.1 billion / 200,000 cars = $95,500/car
Somehow through the magic of wheeling and dealing, Tesla has been able to generate $95,500/car while losing money on every car sold. Whatever they've done, it's absolutely pure magic.
It's pretty much as if they have 100% gross margins.
Whatever they're doing, they're doing it right, and they should keep it up because it's working.
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melo4217, Cars are not the same as some chat app. With an app, you can write one program and an unlimited number of people can start using it. And once they do, there's absolutely no reason to use another one.
Each car is an individual choice and has nothing to do with other people's cars. I can buy any car I want and drive it on the same road as you and everyone else who bought completely different cars.
With the chat app, if nobody is using the new app, it's pointless to for anyone to start using it, even if the new app is slightly better.
The difficulty with apps is gaining traction. With cars, if you make one great car and sell it at a reasonable price, if someone wants it, they'll buy it.
You can't compare the two things because they're absolutely different.
In other words, everyone uses Snap Chat because everyone is already using Snap Chat. Everyone uses Facebook because everyone is already using Facebook. Google could easily develop a new and improved Facebook and Snap Chat, but nobody is using it, so nobody will use it.
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Justin's Mom, Well, over the long run the stock has been going up. Sure, it's very volatile and goes up and down a lot every day. But, if you wait it out, it eventually goes up. The problem is, those who believe that Tesla is going to fail don't understand that there are so many members of the, "Tesla Cult" that it can't fail. They have a waiting list over 400,000 long when production is around 5,000/week. That's insane. No other company has experienced that in history. This gives them a HUGE advantage over any other car company startup. If this were a normal company with no cult following, they would have failed long ago.
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Do you think he's actually "managing" his 3 companies, 4 kids kids, hot girlfriend, and 2 dogs? Someone else is managing all of the right now except Tesla where Elon is 100% focused on micromanaging. That's his problem. He doesn't have time to micromanage everything at Tesla, but apparently it's necessary. At least until they get the production rates up and the costs down.
He might have been able to manage it a lot better if he had hired a consulting firm to help out, but had he done that, he would have probably not invented any new manufacturing methods, and whatever methods he'd have would be what everyone else has. Also, if you watch the documentaries on the history of Tesla, they tried outsourcing things for the first Roadster and it didn't go very well. Everything they got wasn't good enough and had to be redesigned by them anyway.
So who knows? He could have done things differently, and it might have worked out better, or it might not have. He's probably micromanaging because that's what he's learned is necessary to get the job done right.
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All public companies have short sellers. They're actually good for Tesla. The fact that so many have already shorted Tesla makes it very difficult for more short sellers to enter the market to drive the stock down. When you own shares of Tesla, you have to agree to lend them out to short sellers if they are to be lent. There is therefor a limited supply of available shares for them to short. Short sellers also have to pay interest to those who lent them the shares. So those who are long, can make a little extra money. Instead of hating the short sellers, Musk should lend his shares to them so they can pay him interest. He has so many shares, he can probably pay all his bills from the interest he would earn from the short sellers.
Also, all the "bad news" that the short sellers come up with ads to the public awareness of Tesla. And every time Musk proves that "bad news" wrong, it's even more news, and everyone is amazed. It makes Musk look like a genius. In other words, the short sellers and all the FUD they are creating is making Elon Musk and Tesla look good.
They can hate all they want, and it will have no impact on the number of cars Tesla builds, the amount of money they spend, or how many cars they sell.
The only think that Musk needs to do is make sure lawyers review all this tweets so that he can minimize his legal exposure.
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Look up “National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program” on Google.
“The Office of Special Masters of the U.S. Court of Federal Claims, popularly known as "vaccine court", administers a no-fault system for litigating vaccine injury claims. These claims against vaccine manufacturers cannot normally be filed in state or federal civil courts, but instead must be heard in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims, sitting without a jury.”
Basically if you’re injured by a vaccine, you will be compensated. All vaccine manufacturers have to pay into the system, then the system pays you if you’re injured. It’s just like auto insurance. When you are injured, unless you were negligent, your insurance will pay if you are in an accident and it’s your fault. But, your rates will increase.
You shouldn’t believe the anti vaccine propaganda that the antivaxxers are spreading around without doing your own research to verify whether their claims are true or not. With the Internet available, it’s not that difficult.
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I'm actually pretty sure that the price will go substantially above $420. The reason is the short squeeze. Right now the price is around $350 because people believe there's maybe a 25% chance the company will go private. As soon as there's a 100% chance, the stock will instantly be worth $420 at some predetermined future date.
Let's say that date is 6 months from now. Well, nobody would be willing to invest $420 in order to get $420 in 6 months. That would be crazy. So, the current price will be somewhat below $420. If it's too much below, people will be willing to buy in order to receive a guaranteed return. Not enough below and people will be willing to sell because there's not enough of a return. As the date approaches, the price will move closer and closer to the $420 target.
Now, the problem is, this is all based on there being no short sellers. So, now the short sellers will see this and they'll be absolutely certain that every day they wait, they'll lose more money on their position. This will motivate them to buy back as soon as possible. Given that there are 35 million shorted shares that need to be bought, they're all going to be competing to buy back their shares at the same time.
So, then what happens when everyone has agreed to the $420 price and now the price is $450?
BTW, the average volume is about 10 million shares per day. I'm not sure what that means. 10 million average volume to 35 million shorted shares. It seems that this ratio should determine the potential rise in stock price in the event of a short squeeze.
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