Comments by "Terje Oseberg" (@terjeoseberg990) on "Elon Musk just sent all of Wall Street into a frenzy with one tweet" video.
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I'm actually pretty sure that the price will go substantially above $420. The reason is the short squeeze. Right now the price is around $350 because people believe there's maybe a 25% chance the company will go private. As soon as there's a 100% chance, the stock will instantly be worth $420 at some predetermined future date.
Let's say that date is 6 months from now. Well, nobody would be willing to invest $420 in order to get $420 in 6 months. That would be crazy. So, the current price will be somewhat below $420. If it's too much below, people will be willing to buy in order to receive a guaranteed return. Not enough below and people will be willing to sell because there's not enough of a return. As the date approaches, the price will move closer and closer to the $420 target.
Now, the problem is, this is all based on there being no short sellers. So, now the short sellers will see this and they'll be absolutely certain that every day they wait, they'll lose more money on their position. This will motivate them to buy back as soon as possible. Given that there are 35 million shorted shares that need to be bought, they're all going to be competing to buy back their shares at the same time.
So, then what happens when everyone has agreed to the $420 price and now the price is $450?
BTW, the average volume is about 10 million shares per day. I'm not sure what that means. 10 million average volume to 35 million shorted shares. It seems that this ratio should determine the potential rise in stock price in the event of a short squeeze.
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