Comments by "Laird Cummings" (@lairdcummings9092) on "Ed Nash's Military Matters" channel.

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  8. Moscow is claiming that they were outnumbered 8-1 in the Kharkiv Oblast. Given the usual Russian propaganda practice, that probably means that the Ukrainians had about 80% of the Russian forces, but concentrated those forces heavily to obtain local superiority. This is, oddly, not an indictment of the Russian forces - the soldiers, at least - once a rout starts, you either must contain it immediately, or you must get EVERYONE out as fast as possible. Cascade failure is a pernicious thing, and if you want to save anything, you need to step sharply back and get to a stable condition. Of course, that means you wind up surrendering a LOT of your gains and goods. No, the indictment here is against the Russian leadership. First, they fell for the Ukrainian's brilliant bit of theater in Kherson - A real counter offensive, not just a pretend one, but a real offensive also designed to lure Russian forces out of position. EVERYONE fell for that - Western Analysts, media, and most certainly Russia. Western high military leaders probably knew it was coming, and it's known that the US War College has been helping game the counter offensive, so certainly, high US, and probably NATO commanders as well, knew what to expect. Security on this? IMPRESSIVE! Because of the bizarre nature of Putin's War, it is an undeclared war, and Russia cannot actually - legally - fully mobilize. So, to gain reserves and reinforcements, it's faster and easier to shift troops from elsewhere on the front lines. Ukraine understood this, and exploited it brilliantly. Second, the Russian leadership has done a shit job of motivating their troops. This goes all the way back to Putin, and his attempt to destroy Ukraine 'on the cheap.' Un-motivated troops will crack when presented with the kind of conditions that a terrifying assault presents. When the front lines begin to crumble, un-engaged units will crack and run too, to avoid being overrun. a small crack, and an unexpected advance is bad enough, but when a primary defense line that the soldiers are relying upon to hold gets flanked and rolled up, confidence shatters, and then so do the units. Third, Russian command and control SUCKS. So does their ability to act flexibly in the face of change. Initiative is almost entirely lacking. Contrary-wise, Ukrainian forces have a very much more 'Western' outlook, with initiative encouraged and flexible response as a key concept. Rigid command and control is VERY bad at dealing with rapid changes, and the failure of the defense lines outside Balakliya is exactly the kind of thing that Russian-style leadership handles worst. Additionally, looking at the defense lines seen in aerial footage shows clear signs of unskilled low-level leadership; straight trench lines, poor camouflage, squalid conditions in base camps, and generally bad fieldcraft tells me that the local NCOs are just not up to the task.
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