Comments by "Harry Mills" (@harrymills2770) on "The Occult #239: Yes, Magic is Literally Real" video.
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In probability, there is a principle of "complements." To know what the probability of something is, sometimes it's easier to calculate the probability that it is NOT, and subtract from 1.
When experiencing "magic," you need to ask yourself, "What's the probability that this weird shit would NEVER occur in 4 billion trials?" Then notice that there are billions of people on Earth. Weird shit happens every day.
We REMEMBER the odd coincidences and the strange things we can't explain. There's a certain arrogance in concluding that these things are "magic" when they're just the strong law of large numbers in operation. And wishful thinking. And selective memory.
Like the near-death "light at the end of the tunnel" thing. It's physiological. And you populate your "experience" with all kinds of magical properties because you really want to believe. IF you can believe, then this mortal coil in which we are all wrapped is somehow, maybe, something we can "magically" escape. It's good for some people's sanity. Then there are those of us who simply accept the FACT that we don't know and have no means of knowing. It's an uncertainty with which many are unable to cope. Hence, religion. Hence, magic.
If it makes you easier to deal with while we share this time and space on this planet, then I've got no problem with it. If it makes you creepy and looking to make a blood sacrifice, I'm not into it.
For instance, "What's the probability that at least 2 people in a room of 30 people have the same birthday?" It seems like it'd be a pretty low probability, until you get down to the technicalities of ensuring that NONE of them have the same birthday. The probability of shared birthdays is surprisingly high. To someone ignorant of these things, it seems almost mystical. To a mathematician it's a big yawner.
What's the probability of a false positive in a test for a disease that's 99% accurate, if the disease, itself, is very rare? The probability of a false positive, when you GET a positive at ALL, is quite high. That's why AIDs tests had 2 stages. The first test. Then a follow-up test, if positive for AIDs was reported.
Then there's the subconscious mind. We take EVERYTHING in, unfiltered. Then our conscious mind gets ahold of it and filters out about 99.9% of the inputs, to make it possible to function. It could be an odor you detect without knowing it. It could be a sound that didn't quite register on your conscious mind. It could be a micro-expression on the face of a person you just met, but who creeped you out for no reason. Magic? Nah. Just something real that we don't really understand or perceive.
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