Comments by "Harry Mills" (@harrymills2770) on "Preston Stewart "
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@gregoryfilin8040 Yes. Russia had many troops it couldn't use on foreign soil.
I don't think Russia anticipated Ukraine making such a bold move, but I don't think it was left out of their calculations. I'm sure it inconvenienced them quite a bit, especially at first, but once the incursion began, they had plenty of untapped and hitherto untappable military resources to bring to bear.
The area was soft because there wasn't a whole lot there to defend, and it was a waste of resources to try to beef up every meter of border, out of fear. They had the resources to stop the incursion, and they knew exactly what they were up against, once they were up against it. I don't think they had detailed plans what to do, but had confidence that such a move by Ukraine would be a mistake on Ukraine's part.
A lot of garrison troops got a lot of training and battle experience who otherwise would have been drinking coffee and getting into trouble with local girls. I imagine they were unprepared at the outset, and rather easy to roll up. And then, as anyone with a brain would expect, they'd eventually fortify the territory ahead of the advance, stop the advance, and then, slowly, methodically, turn the tables.
I think they could have done it more quickly, but it would have cost them a great deal more than it did.
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No expert, here, but this reminds me of Kursk incursion. We'll see if this has legs. Surprise was achieved. Large gains in largely undefended areas. Bakeries. Cell towers.
The fact that there are so many sorties being flown, apparently by both sides, the state of air defenses in the area must not be very good.
I think Erdogan is trying to force Assad to the bargaining table, but Assad refuses to meet with Erdogan until all Turkish troops have left Syrian soil. I think this is definitely meant to hurt, but Turkey's using proxies, and not making a huge investment. Maybe it's just a punitive expedition.
I think it's shock and awe, where old tactics can still work because the areas attacked are not well-defended.
I don't think the Russians are abandoning Syria.
We'll see how it plays out, but it just seems to me that the West is trying to stretch Putin too thin, without any understanding of how thinly stretched the West is, and how it weakens itself due to deluded and frankly nihilistic leadership.
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