Comments by "Harry Mills" (@harrymills2770) on "HistoryLegends"
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@ВладиславНиколаев-ч5щ What you say is perfectly reasonable, except for one thing: Ukraine has violated every agreement made with Russia. Russia has the overwhelming advantage and the momentum.
What guarantees would Russia have that the puppet regime in Kiev wouldn't go right back to the same behavior? Each of the last couple cease-fires have only given Kiev breathing room to build up forces and go right back to bombing what's left of the Donbass. There's no self-reflection about their ethnic cleansing efforts.
I feel bad for Ukraine, because it's always been a country divided, because of the very large ethnic Russian population. If you want a good, strong country, you need one common language. If ethnic Russians refuse to assimilate, Ukraine can't have a unified nation. Maybe they were doomed from the start.
It seems to me, though, that they could put together a one-nation, one-culture plan that didn't involve bombing the expletive-deleted out of their own people. But since they were overthrown in 2014, they've been run by western neocons, who are always stirring up trouble, especially where they lack the real wherewithal to impose their will by force. So, like all empires before them, they resort to dirty tricks, like regime change.
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@mcnuffin1208 Was the outcome in Chechnya ever in any doubt? I think calling it a "worst nightmare" was over the top, but Russian Army is gaining combat experience, and has adapted very quickly.
I think it can be deceptive, watching green Russian troops do as they're told and high-tail it out of trouble. I think it's easy to underestimate the enemy, especially when you are winning skirmish after skirmish, when to the enemy, the skirmishes are the best training for the survivors, both officers and enlisted. The skirmishes are less about winning and more about forcing their opponent to respond, expending human and material resources they can ill afford to lose.
You very quickly sort out leaders from followers and incompetents. It might be the least costly in men and equipment over the long haul, the same way that their absolute "Do not negotiate with terrorists" stance.
"20 gunmen have taken 100 moviegoers hostage and they're in a stand-off with local police."
You know what happens. They sing the death songs of the hostages, assemble overwhelming forces, and they storm the theater. Hostages may die, but terrorists definitely die. That kind of next-level ruthlessness saves many Russian lives. Would-be hostage takers know how it will end.
I think we're reaching the point where Ukrainian front line will collapse. It remains an open question how Putin will respond, but my guess is he'll be open to negotiations. Ukraine stands to lose Odessa if this continues, and could potentially regain more territory by being reasonable and ending the genocide on ethnic Russians within its borders.
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@MissingThe90s That's hard to say. He picked a neocon for VP, which is not a good sign for his State Department and intel appointments. But after RussiaGate, he has no love for the security state and the foreign-policy brain trust currently in office.
Who knows what compromises Russia might accept, if their security requirements are met? There was and is no way Russia is going to accept a hostile neighbor on its doorstep, building a huge army and rattling its saber, with the approval and encouragement of feckless NATO (U.S.) officials.
Right now, the Russians are winning hearts and minds around the world, for the way they handle their business and how the USA and Europe handle theirs. Africa and the Far East are fed up with America's regime-change foreign policy. They're nervous about who might be next on the USA's hit list, and they see America's might being legitimately challenged around the world.
Russia has oil and gas for sale. The west is actually planning on moving away from fossil fuels by 2030, and has nothing but poverty on offer. American economic hegemony is coming to an end, but it refuses to accept that it is no longer first among equals.
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@Влад-ч8ь1с It's hard not to sound pro-Russian if you're being objective. There just isn't a whole lot positive to report for the Ukrainian side, but when there is, for instance, when he's criticizing Russia's tactics in the past.
In fact, I was going to jump in and say, the current emphasis on maneuver is more the product of the destruction/counter-measures of/to Ukrainian artillery pieces, artillery ammo, air defenses and FPV drones.
I think that a year ago, the Russians were obliged to push ahead in a heavily fortified, slowly moving line. Any Russian advances along a particular line created salients that were vulnerable to attack.
So anyway, I'm not sure that the Russians are necessarily changing tactics because they got better at maneuver warfare or because there are more and more opportunities to penetrate the front lines and survive it.
For instance, they took on Bakhmut head-on, when I thought they would be wiser to bypass it and threaten to encircle it, creating a cauldron for forces trying to reinforce it, forcing the retreat out of Bakhmut. But in hindsight, maybe the Ukrainians were much better at thwarting those kinds of maneuvers.
Also, I don't think their purpose was to conquer Ukraine so much as win a war of attrition, and they destroyed a lot of Ukraine's fighting forces in the slug-fest.
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