Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "Asianometry"
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Really, in a way, what has happened in South Korea with the Chaebol in the 1980s-1990s, is a microcosm of what happened in Japan with the Zaibatsu in the 1930s-1940s, with their similar corrupt influence on their national governments (except that Japan had colonized Manchuria and the Zaibatsu wanted a slice of that pie). The difference being that the Zaibatsu was partially forcably broken up immediately after WW2 by the Supreme Commander Allied Powers (of Japan), and the Chaebol had not faced such an imposition from losing an international war in the mid-20th century. Both have played a leading role of the elites in these countries, and their political and economic effect of these mega-company industrial combines (controlled by a small number of families and very wealthy individuals) is both beneficial to their countries (in their growth phase), but also malignant in stifling small to medium business competition and growth and hence employment of Koreans long-term, as well as skewing national politics to their own conservative interests. Particularly, since like Japan, Korea is undergoing an aging population demographic crises since 2000, with low immigration to offset that economic malaise.
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Vietnam is far from a paradise (it does not exist anywhere), but Vietnam is a lovely country scenically. Furthermore, Vietnam has not gone down the dictatorship road; causing the violent and destructive excesses in the Soviet Union, China, North Korea and Cambodia. I don't quite understand how and why Vietnam has avoided this, but it's modern (and ancient) history does have a singular focus which may be a function of it's political stability; kick out all armed invaders (this is not a statement of religious or racial xenophobia that has blighted the history of many other nations), but an application of political independence. This history of resistance is still quite recent in Vietnam, i.e. the Vietnam War (which the Vietnamese may have a different title), finished only 50 years ago, and was singularly devastating is the nicest way i could describe it. Furthermore, coupled with the productive work ethic of the average Vietnamese, the lack of theocratic threats that plague the Middle East and the high social standing of education, gives Vietnam a definite edge in current times. Vietnam, if governed quite well as it seems to be, even without meaningful democracy, looks to have quite a bright future.
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With you last statement, when the "Chinese government", I assume you mean the CCP. And build technology, I assume you mean becoming leaders in chip design, which seems unlikely now but let's assume the CCP succeed with their "thousand talents program" and become leaders in chip design in 5 to 10 years; what about the rest of the world after that? This will not be (unlike Taiwan, Japan and South Korea) about selling technology without political strings attached. The CCP attaches political strings particularly to trade, so the awful realization that the CCP could be controlling a company, similar to the current Taiwanese TSMC in 10 years, fills me with dread on how the CCP will eventually totally control the global trade of smart phones, mobile networks, laptops and computers, setting benchmarks and bottlenecks in trade in electronics as it sees fit. And furthermore wage war with impunity, with similar chip technology going into leading edge missile guidance. Any good to come out of that???
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Xi Jinping, like Adolf Hitler, aims for industrial autarky (particularly in chip design, chip fab and in advanced microprocessors). You might question the obsessive aims that Xi has for this goal, which are highly likely to be very nationalistic and not to free market norms which now dominate in the international world of electronics. This technology is always changing and advancing anyway, so it's a singularly difficult thing to do under favourable political and economic circumstances, particularly under autarky. China governed by the CCP faces additional technology advancement challenges, more acute than under free market democracies, and that's in it's political environment of oppression at home and abroad, a copycat culture that downplays and undermines R & D, and corruption more acute than experienced in a political system with fair legal courts (democracies again). While it's true that the Soviet Union (under a similar government as China's) advanced further for a decade and a half in rocketry and space exploration in the 1950s and 1960s than competing democratic powers, this was mainly due to the exceptional technocratic powress of talented individuals such as Sergei Korolev (he languished 10 years in a gulag before his rocketry expertise was finally utilised by the Soviet government under Khrushchev). This is unlikely to ever happen under CCP China where the current high end chip technology is implemented by a complex technology supply chain, involving a number of democratic countries (e.g United States, the Netherlands and Taiwan) from the chip design to the chip fab.
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Good one, although environments hate the idea of "fossil fuels", even like natural gas that has less carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and soot emissions than coal combustion. Note that the majority of the world's electricity is still produced by thermal coal burning, particularly China's which is now the most polluting country in the world (in most areas but notably with electricity production) with scant environmental emissions controls. Particularly, compared to other developed Asian countries like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Natural gas is used for more than electricity production. It is also used for glass making, making of ceramics, transport, domestic gas mains (and bottled) supplies for cooking and heating and so on. Note that environmentalists love EVs, and there is a massive opening market for such automobiles, but without at least a quarter of their large electricity consumption provided for battery recharge provided by renewable electricity supply from the power grid, they are not "green energy; their CO2 output is comparible with efficient modern ICE light automobiles, particularly diesel power and hybrid engines.
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Bitcoin is decentralizing crypto-currency (yes currency; any token or algorithm holding a monetary value). It enables direct fungible digital transactions nationally or internationally, without needed banks or financiers, or the government (who take their cut of transactions in fees and taxes). Wheras digital RMB is anti-cryptocurrency. Every transaction is funnelled and recorded tbrough the Central Bank of China (which is directly controlled by the CCP). This enables the CCP to monitor and tax all digital transactions, and the find anyone whom they deem "hostile to the state", for holding anti-CCP values or to be pro-democracy for example, as the digital RMB will contain metadata, like your location when transacted. These "naughty" individuals then can get frozen out of the economy of all China by having all their transactions frozen (including any day-to-day transaction to buy food, energy, accomodation and medicine) and have all their digital assests (illegally) seized by the state, including their bank account, with no guarentee of any of it returning. This is what socialism means. There are no private property rights in China. Whereas, in the West the police can track you (if you have committed a felony), by the use of your credit card (if in your name), or by your mobile phone. However, unless the prosecution lawyers can prove that most of your property was acquired through criminal activity, the state cannot confiscate your private property and bank account (unlike the CCP who mostly does), and which has to be returned to you once you've served your sentence.
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I'm not strong on numismatics, but the Japanese coinage, both in the past & current day have (square and circular) holes punched in the coin, legitimately & legally. I think that was from a time when Japanese treasury coinage metal supply, such as bronze (copper), silver and gold were in short supply so they saved more metal by "debasing" the coinage with holes. Note that originally coinage was supposed the represent the precious and semi-precious metal value, and removing metal from the coin, is debasing, also by mixing with less expensive metals for example, mixing more silver in gold coins. Now, of course, nearly all money (cash in hand) has token value only, and does not relate so the value of the metal in it (gold minted coins and collectable coins excepted).
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The CCP totalitarians didn't get the Australian strategic resources what they wanted, so they spat the dummy and arrested the messenger Stern Hu (an Australian citizen) on trumped-up charges. That was the beginning of the rot between the Australian government, large strategic resource Australian (UK) corporations (such as Rio Tinto), and the CCP. In 2020, in response to a question about investigating the origin of the Covid outbreak by then PM Morrison, the CCP acted like 12 year old spoiled bullies and threw back multi-sector Australian export sectors to China by high tarrifs and bans (Australian iron ore exports was not touched by this, the China economy needs it too much), but this eggregious bureaucratic act only had mild medium-term effect on most of the targeted commodities (as most commodities were sold to more rational countries, and generally they were good quality products), but a severe effect on the small but quality Tasmanian rock lobster industry ensued. Incidentally, the Australian coal ban action was poorly planned in China because blackouts occurred across Northern China in the winter of 2020-21, as China power stations could not make up the shortfall due to a sudden loss of Australian thermal coal stocks. To summarize, CCP China is a predatory ideological power with fiat ideas of trade, and rudimentary understanding of market economy. It's internal fiat political decision making and 180 degree reversals on trade deals make it difficult to deal with. The Taiwanese have discovered this as well. If they can't play the trade game like grown ups, as a French Queen (Marie Antoinette) once allegedly remarked; "let them eat cake".
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Typical political jerrymandering, particularly from the unimaginative, conservative and crony ridden Nationalist Party (coalition with the Liberals), helped create the white elephant which is the Ord River Scheme. The area is underpopulated, so little in the way of transport infrastructure (e.g. roads and rail) are there, let alone large towns. In comparison, with the North Queenland coastal strip (South of Cairns), where sugar cane farming, banana, mango and pawpaw planations are long established, ongoing and profitable and the area (for north Queensland) is quite well populated with established roads, rail networks (for the sugar cane as well), substantial towns and a large commericial port at Townsville. That makes all the difference in costs for the primary producers. The mantra for the Ord River Scheme was; "build it and they will come". Well, it was built but comparatively few people wanted to take up land for cultivation in such a remote place; so they didn't come.
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The enthusiam for EUVs are misplaced. These vehicles are designed to replace ICE vehicles as global warming becomes a concern. However, global warming comes from many sources, not just out of the exhaust of ICE vehicles. Most electricity is still generated globally by thermal coal, which changes the batteries on EUVs, and electricity generation is the leading industrial CO2 emission, not ICE vehicles. Secondly, one half of all global petroluem fuel supply goes into pushing ships around the oceans. EUV's, like mobile phones, have a global supply chain so much of their parts are shipped. Thirdly, petroluem costs at the pump are stil competitively cheap comparison to battery power (by weight) or battery replacement, and there remains plenty of commercial fuel outlets and a lack of convinient EV charge stations in many countries. Forthly, manufacturing EVs consumes more resouces than ICE vehicles and is even more polluting to manufacture. For example, in an average EV there is 40kg of copper wiring in comparison to 1kg in ICE vehicles and, besides making copper more expensive which is great for copper miners, mining exposes sulphides to the environment which causes acid ground water and heavy metal pollution. Additionally, there is not enough lithium globally to supply the growth of EVs over the next ten years, unless the battery primary element changes.
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