Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "The Rise and Fall of China's Evergrande Group" video.

  1. "A little bit of a cash crunch", is equivalent to saying; "a volcano that erupted quietly". It's a massive understatement. Methinks China is one giant powder keg in the property market.
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  2. Well researched & interesting topic. Many houses and apartments globally are over-leveraged (meaning too expensive). The value of property against (average) wage earning capacity is now over 2.5 times more than my parents had in the 1960s and 1970s. Meaning that overall (average, not high end) property prices is now over 2.5 times more expensive than its repayment capacity, than it was 40 years ago. We call this "progress". Yes, for the banks and real-estate agents until the property bubble bursts.
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  3. I love the way that the phrase, "people's democratic republic", belongs to dictatorships across the globe. Like Voltaire said of the Holy Roman Empire (that it was not holy, nor Roman, nor an empire), a similar vein can be made of "people's democratic republic"; that's it's not a democracy nor for the people (but a clique of powerful ideologically driven un-elected individuals, which treat the property of the state as their private estate). As for a republic (a Western idea); it's half right. The Politburo in Beijing is indeed a senate of sorts, but the officials arrive there through Byzantine-like back room deals, reeking of cronyism, and it's a rubber-stamp body for the dictator.
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  4. "A little bit of a cash crunch", is the same as saying that World War 2 was a little bit bad: An oxymoron. Evergrande and the CCP and all their other indebted real estate companies in China are falling like dominos. The 30 year real estate debt bubble collapse might reach the debt level of 30% of the entire GDP of China. That's the same percentage fall as the Great Depression of 1929-1930 in the US, for China just in the real estate sector.
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