Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "4 Scary Predictions on China's Future (ft. Peter Zeihan, Laowhy86 u0026 more) | JHS" video.

  1. General Spalding is a but of a defeatist. Surprising for a military man to take such a defeatist position. Maybe he's paid by the CCP to posit a position favourable to them. It is very difficult for the PLA to coordinate a successful cross-channel invasion of the main island of Taiwan. For example, in Operation Overlord (World War 2) the costs of invading (Omaha Beach) was still very high and the chances of the amphibious assult and beachhead failing in Normandy was palpable for weeks after day 1. For example, it's much harder to ferry logistics supplies over a hostile stretch of water than land (it's tough enough on land as the Russians discovered in Ukraine) and it's much easier to defend a Beach front as the attacking force must arrive in ships or aircraft and land there. They can't conceal themselves in the landscape.
    6
  2. The CCP does not necessarily want a big bloody war over the main island of Taiwan (especially as the chance of winning, even without American help, hangs in the balance as it will).The CCP may not mind that 100,000 of it's soldiers, navy, airmen etc. may die in the invasion attempt, but if they fail it will be a massive loss of face and difficult to conceal defeat. Much more likely that the CCP will claim victory over a much more smaller, achievable (and much less strategically important) target such as the invasion of the Kinman or Matsu Islands.
    1