Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "Lei's Real Talk" channel.

  1. The graph showing the huge disparity of credit between local and central government is trouble waiting to happen, I.e. provinces or cities breaking away from Beijing and declaring their independence in order to manage and normalise their debt and increase local prosperity of the provincial or city economy. This will force the central Beijing CCP/PLA to militarily invade the breakaway province, which cannot be hidden from neighbouring provinces and the rest of the world. This is a huge risk of civil war in China. Much more than the United States as state rights are enshrined in the US constitution and the US economy is more decentralised (from the US Federal government) than China, hence US states have more fiscal avenues to taxation and raising local treasury revenues than provincial governments in China and hence less economic burdens in an economic shock and reasons to butt heads with the national government.
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  2. Sorry Lei, a megaton of TNT is 1,000,000 tonnes of TNT equivalent explosive power. TNT is a chemically derived explosive invented about the mid-nineteenth century, but the usage of TNT was not applied until the turn of the twentieth century when Germany started using it to fill shells and bombs. It is now the standard measure of the power of an explosion, even though TNT is not used much by the military as a chemical explosive anymore. The mass of an aircraft supercarrier is about 100,000 tonnes fully loaded, for example the USS Gerald R Ford. The mass of ten of these carriers equals about a megaton, so the mass of 10 supercarriers in TNT explosive charge alone. Thus, the explosion of 1 megaton of TNT is the equivalent power of a medium sized nuclear weapon.
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  3. What amazes me with Xi Jinping's account is not; "how can we improve the lives and lot of the poor rural peasants", but a blind acceptance that these people somehow are condemed by karma to live that way (other than the poorly installed biogas). The music track in the video at Xi's emotional farewell of the peasants was kitsch. I overall find this attitude to be morally bankrupt. The CCP has never cared about the lives of the rural poor in China and how to improve it. They instead use the peasants as a Potemkim Village backdrop as a concentration camp education centre for rebellious youths. Meanwhile, nothing happens to the peasants. It's a sham and a disgrace.
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  4. Obviously some China doctors have not heard of the Hippocratic oath, or ignore it (although i've read it, in essence it is ethical although in detail some clauses are outdated). Hence these unprofessional doctors performing organ harvesting in China (rather they are professional executioners) are not worthy of practising medicine on any human being.
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  5. The CCP values of building big and not testing the economic sense of doing that and in big projects bringing evironmrntal disasters. The high speed rail was mentioned. While the first lines in China made economic sense, later high speed lines were an enormous waste of money, to the tune of 900 billion. This ongoing cost hss to be recovered somehow, or the rail lines scrapped. Consultation with the public takes time, which is an essence of democracy, but when the project gets built, the majority of the nation state is satisfied. The CCP never stops for a census, but builds a great white elephant at great financial and environmental cost. It's an expensive showcase operation, a propaganda piece for the CCP (just like the PLA general promotes) not a prudent project designed not to either improve overall the economy of China or make the majority of Chinese lives better .
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  6. There is so much legal and intelligence work to unravel CCP corrupt influence work outside China; work by the United Front, military and scientific espionage and corrupt practices in the United Nations, WHO and so on, but at least a start is made to isolate the CCP internationally. Please let it continue, and it will eventually assist the collapse of a totalitarian power that has killed tens of millions of it's own people, is now responsible for millions of Covid deaths around the world.
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  7. Older and usually more senior people in their 40s 50s and 60s in the PLA and PLAPN are more severely affected by the Covid outbreak, leading to some deaths. It's like Stalin purging the Soviet Red Army in the 1930s (by disposing of many of the professional senior leaders), that possibly lead to retreat and near collapse of the Red Army in 1941 and 1942 when the Wehrmacht invaded. Except now the job is being done by a germ, not by a paranoid dictator (yet).
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  8. Well if you try sabre rattling, your enemies are going to wake up and increase their military force potential and strengthen their alliances. What a surprise (not). The discarding of the recent Wolf Warrior diplomacy of the CCP is indicative of the failure of that foreign policy by increasing the war preparations and war making potential of your adversities. I could say that a rational ten year kid could have deduced the Wolf Warror response internationally. Shows you the brittle nature of the "face" of the CCP internationally and of the PLA internally.
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  9. Worse, much of the soil and water of China (in arable areas) are highly toxified by organochloride pesticide or heavy metal effluent run off from industry, so these lands are at a point of being a permanent wasteland that can grow nothing and even put a highrise on (because the buried rubbish makes the land too unstable for foundations). China's food production is shrinking and it's fresh water is polluted and dangerous for animals and humans to drink. It's production without environmental responsibility. That's the "Socialist paradise" for you. I even watched a video made by the China Show that demonstrated that some parts of China the barren hills, dead grass and trees are spray painted green! That's a Potemkin Village environment for you. Could you live in such a toxic green painted wasteland and survive there?
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  10. It's strange that Xi made the statement of burgeoning risk of amplifying small problems for the continuation of the CCP to hold onto power against odds, then impliments the severe lockdown and testing regime for the Omicron Covid variant (which does not work or stop it's spread, but is a less dangeous variant), which adds to the burden of that risk. Maybe, if he makes the pronouncement of policy, then it's deemed "flawless". Anyway, the effect is decline, and the lockdowns accelerate it.
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  11. The CCP want to push out and take over as a global superpower without setting off a global kinetic conflict with the West (and India and Japan), until China becomes too powerful to challenge economically and militarily. This goal is becoming increasingly difficult to attain for the CCP (for 2 main reasons): 1. With the strident Wolf Warrior diplomacy that the CCP had increasingly adopted under Xi. Previously, it had lulled the compliant West (and Japan) to do business with it under Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin, while it grew rich and more economically powerful (thus increasing it's military strength). Wolf Warrior undermines this (part of the revanchist DNA of the totalitarian CCP) and foreign investment is diminishing with investment in China increasingly seen as high risk (political and economic) with increasing cost of labour and, 2. China has a severe demographic crises looming, and it will become increasingly powerless when it's demographic decline takes full effect. This diminishes the possibility of starting and waging conventional war for any long duration with the West and winning after about a decade has passed.
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  12. The totalitarian CCP conceals most economic results to itself. Like the totalitarian Nazis and Soviets, the true figures are revealed only to the top officials and people close to the dictator. This means that unilateral economic changes cannot be affected by government in China (even in a centralized goverance system, such as the CCP's model), especially the CCP that always have to make the economy look rosy, because it's absolute power is so fragile. So the ordinary Chinese people are currently ground-down under a severe economic recession, which is currently happening across China right now, and this has been going on for at least 6 months. Hence, this ia a result of an authoritarian system, for those who foolishly admire it. Faked data, and Western economic instututions like banks, stock exchanges and the IMF do know that CCP economic data is faked, but the Western investors are now severly spooked, loosing money hand-over-fist, and their fund managers have sealed their lips. Sucks to you, if you have been igoring the political and economic signs since Xi got into power 10 years ago and you are a foreign investor in China.
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  13. The CCP is nothing if not revanchist. This means that past perceived foreign slights and wars against China, like the Opium Wars, is turned into public spectacle. Sonething the CCP excels at in it's propaganda arm. This includes incursions into East Asia by Tzarist Russia from the 18th century onwards. Particularly where this affected Northeast China. Such as Dalien and other locations. The CCP has targeted Russia over Eastern Siberia, and Valdivostok, where Russia regards these outposts as inseperable to it. The CCP and PLA may take advantage of Russian weakness (particularly demonstrated in the weakness and corruption of it's army units in carrying out land offensives into northern Ukraine). The PLA might run the risk of a sudden takeover move into Russian held Siberia, so the Russia-China accord is as fragile and weak as the Comintern pact between Nazi Germany and Showa Japan.
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  14. Sorry, i meant the Anti-Comintern Pact.
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  15. "Swift and intense assult?" There is 3 US carrier groups now in the Western Pacific within less than 4 days warplane range of the Taiwan Strait (without Japan's initial help). Taiwan won't fall in 4 days of an amphibious assult, after which the PLAAN loses more and more ships, making logistic supply impossible. Has the 3-3-16 not learned the lesson of Russia in Ukraine? Plus an amphibious assult is 5 times more difficult to pull off than a land border assult.
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  16. Clearly, banks in China cannot be trusted. Banks core operations are honesty and openess. Loosing this makes people put their hard owned savings under their floorboards and into their mattress etc. Not good for both banks and governments.
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  17. Chinese experts on IC silicon chips know it will take at least a decade of intensive R & D to get anywhere near the capabilities of Taiwanese, South Korean and Japanese chip manufacturing. Meanwhile in a decade, significant advances in IC chip design in Taiwan etc. has already moved on. Also the more advanced the chip, the more engineering precision is needed to make those chips. So the CCP have little chance (unassisted by foreign IC experts, including Taiwanese) in making advanced chips for military and civilian applications in the next decade.
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  18. Somehow the CCP political system is as evil and wrong as the men (dictators or quasi-dictators) that preside over it
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  19. It's a proposition without real life implications, or it would be very rare to occur. When would you be in a situation where both your mother and your girlfriend would be in direct peril and you could only rescue one and with no time to rescue the other? How likely is that in the real world to occur? If this actually occurred, why not try rescue both? Why tie yourself in knots over a proposition that is almost never likely to occur? It's impractical.
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  20. The people running universities in China do not care about actual academic outcomes. Eventually, overseas universities realize this and will either not recruit academics or postgraduates from China or ask them to do exams in the year they recruit them to test their actual knowledge. Mainland Chinese undergraduates are a different matter, and Australian universities fall over themselves to enrol them because the full-fee paying foreign students bring more revenue to universties, over and above fee subsidized (in Australia fee subsidized tertiary education is called HELP) local students. The numbers of overseas Chinese undergraduate students enrolled in Australian universities were the highest overseas group (before 2020), for over twenty years. This is why when the CCP in 2020, in response to the Australian government query on the origins of the Covid outbreak, cast dark rumours that Australia was racist and a dangerous place for Asian students to live (which is a lie), and combined the Covid pandemic international border lockdowns at that time, plus the lies the CCP told Chinese students about Covid cases in Australia (Australia has had a combined death toll from Covid of 14500 people since 2020, in a total population of 26 million) the numbers of Chinese enrolled international undergraduate students plummeted here. In comparison, the USA has 1.078 million Covid deaths in 330 million people. Just do the math, you can see the number of Covid deaths per million is much higher in the US; 5.8 times worse.
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  21. Nice that Lei provides a Chinese translation of topical words, including characters. The CCP is again trying for autarky in IT, a function that will be very difficult to achieve because parts for computers, laptops, tablet and mobile phones are sourced from eveywhere in the world (not just from China). The focus on security in hardware, software, and networks by the CCP is not coincidental. The fears by the CCP over backdoor spyware in software OS, installed in computers etc. by foreign governments and corporations, and with secret chips doing the same is pure paranoid projection. Because of the CCP's obsession about it, i just wonder if the CCP has been systematically doing just that to the computers, phones etc that it sells outside China, targeting other foreign countries, in particular the United States for many years?
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  22. The Chinese overseas police centres also undermine the rule of law of the democratic states that they are parasitically lodged in. This is also intentional by the CCP, in their global goal of launching political instability and worldwide Socialist revolution, in particular in Western democracies. It's up to those countries to eject these illegal police stations as non-consular hostile intelligence gathering agencies for the CCP.
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  23. This a good population report from Lei about China. Actually, it is rumoured that China's decline in population will be overall worse than the bubonic plague pandemics of the 14th century in Europe where up to a third of the population quickly died during the pandemic in the middle of that century (from carefully examining parish and government records and exhuming a few plague pits with due care). So the CCP may be even worse than a dangerous infectious disease to the overall population. Why is it that bad? demographic and scuentific ignorance coupled with a totalitarian mindset ideology that has lead to repeated acts of democide (the forced abortions of teenagers and young women in China was clearly democide, so the CCP has continued on it's bad work to nearlly present day) has significantly failed China. This is also a warning to those in the West who wish to socially experiment on human beings in a way to seek a solution to political issues (Woke mentality). This failed in China, it will also fail in the West.
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  24. No one understands totalitarianism, unless those who survived and groaned under the heel of a totalitarian regime or have read George Orwell's poignant and accurate political novels.
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  25. Crimes against Chinese? The CCP is paramount at this, but this does not seem to incite the Chinese to overthrow this criminal regime.
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  26. It's highly unlikely Xi will voluntarily end the CCP, because he's a career politician like Adolf Hitler or Ioseb Jughashvili (Stalin), with his entire life wedded to the CCP but with even "further credentials" of being a "red princeling" (in the morally and logically upside-down world of the CCP), whereas Hitler and Stalin were pure oppertunists from nowhere. Xi is not a humanist like Gorbachev. So the CCP will collapse hopefully when it finally shudders to a grinding halt mainly of it's own making (it's not long to go now apparently), although there is likely to be bloodshed for a while afterwards in the bear-pit world of Chinese politics.
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  27. The possibility of a war now by invading Taiwan may not be in anyone's interest (except Xi as a device to postpone the 20th National Congress indefinitely). Hence we come to the unstable power sharing arrangement, which is the CCP and the Politbureau. Hitler in 1939 convinced himself that the western allies (France and Britain) would not declare war against him if he invaded Poland (Hitler had tore up the Munich Agreement barely 6 months earlier by invading Czechoslovakia, in which the Western allies only made talk, not action). By miscalculating the reactions of the Western allies over Poland, Hitler had plunged Germany into a total war in which there was only two possibilities; total victory or total defeat. I wonder if Xi Jinping has the same hubris to try the same trick as Hitler did?
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  28. Lei's last statement; "I hope no more lives are lost through ignorance" is morally correct but largely futile. This is because POLITICIANS almost NEVER LEARN LESSONS or they draw the wrong conclusions. Xi Jinping himself is adept at making mistakes, and after him, so is Joe Biden. What is important is that all of us invariably make mistakes, but choose carefully when making a political decision.
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  29. Poverty is a community problem, not just an individual problem. Failure of the community to alleviate poverty can extend to the government of the nation state. Hence, the failure to alleviate poverty by the CCP of the poorest peasants is an eggregoius failure to alleviate rural poverty in China, which is ironic because the poor peasants supported the CCP, more than any class, to elevate it to government in the first place.
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  30. All talk and no action until the shooting war starts.
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  31. 110 million years? That's nearly twice as long ago as when the non-avian dinosaurs went extinct. Like the dinosaurs, eat the rich in China
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  32. In hundreds of years of pandemics like polio or smallpox viruses before it? I am not so fatalistic.
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  33. This analysis and comparison is very good and explains why big centralised authoritarian government never works well at all and why delegating and allowing decisions to local experts works better. The crises control of the dams should have been delegated to a chief engineer on the spot, in which he (or she) would act under the crises with expert foreknowledge and advice of other engineers and hydrologists. This is usually the way democratic countries handle an environmental or infrastructure emergency. We can see how China, one of the most centralised countries in the world, is in fact a dystopia.
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  34. Why Jingping sounds more and more like Hitler. Hong Kong 2021 = Czechoslovakia 1938.
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  35. Mao Zedong didn't care if he exterminated half the population of China in war. Hence, he was a psychopath dictator as cruel as Hitler and Stalin, his totalitarian contempories. Showing his ignorance of the effect of nuclear weapons, Mao mentioned in a meeting in the 1960s to the Indian prime minister at the time, Nehru, that it did not matter to the universe that (the United States presumably) blew an enormous hole in China with nuclear bombs (not how the destructive effect of nuclear blast works). This demonstrates Mao's utter contempt for human life (including Chinese lives), and indeed his nihilism which extended to the casualness of his own death, if that could produce a political outcome pleasing to Mao.
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  36. "Being unpredictable". What happens if a US warplane is brought down by buzzing the aircraft by PLA jets? This has happened frequently, almost monthly now. Similarly with a US ally, for example Canada or Australia carrying out operations over international waters in the South China Sea. They (PLA jets) have deployed chaff dangerously close to the warplanes of both RAAF and RCAF. My guess is that the hyena-like mentality of the CCP and PLA will go harder on the "small prey" (Canada and Australia). Consequently, these dangerous air manoeuvres by the PLA are calculated. I doubt either the USAF, RAAF or RCAF have considered this scenario of retaliation playout, if or more likely when, their planes are brought down by a collision. If they have, all these governments are keeping their reaction secret to when an "accident" finally does happen. In my opinion, it would be far better for these governments to meet and make a joint statement of the consequences of what "accident" by close flying manoeuvres might mean for the PLA and CCP.
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  37. A thorough analysis of China's deeply indebted and troubled land transport system. But would the rest of the world foot the bill for China's massive debt by using digital RMB? Unless you trade with China (and it will insist on this payment in digital RMB very soon). Anyway, it is outside the SWIFT system making it less attractive, and China's banks are notoriously corrupt. This project desire of a digital world trading currency (the digital RMB), as an alternative to the US dollar is slipping out of the hands of the CCP as it's economy collapses. The CCP is economically now stuck between a rock and a hard place, mostly of it's own making; 1. Continual aggressive Covid lockdowns to placate the incumbent dictator Xi in a crazy Mao fashion. This harms up to 20% of the GDP of China, directly by economic stagnation and costs of continual Covid testing of the population, when the economy of China badly needs the growth now. These Covid lockdowns are also pushing foreign firms and investors to flee China more rapidly than even they planned pre 2022. Another 1% of China's GDP probably permanently lost with all the foreign technology inputs (CCP's technology theft) that comes with that, so the cumulative effect to China's GDP and local unemployment when the foreign firms leave China, is likely significantly higher than 1% loss. 2. Collapse of the real estate building industry. This is a unprecedented real estate bubble bust that makes even the Prime Mortgage in the US in 2008 GFC and the collapse of real estate prices in Japan in the early 1990s look tiny in comparison (not only in relative scale to the economy it affected but in absolute dollar value terms, factored in time for the earlier two smaller US and Japan bursts). This real estate crunch (nearly 30% of China's GDP) is too large for the CCP national treasury to fund a soft landing (unlike with the US Federal Reserve during the GFC), so many Chinese banks will also go under in the next year or so. By this metric, up to half of the GDP of China has already been lost in 2022. I've not even addressed the severe drought and heat waves on diminished electricity production and agriculture on Southern China this year. Is China the second largest economy in the world now? The CCP has run out of revenue and with high unemployment and business failure and international trade disappearing, it can't raise tax renenue and improve balance of trade terms and soon it's treasury will be dry and stagflation will become rampant. Soon China will be smaller than Japan's economy, making it the third, forth, fifth and so on in time with the added impulse of steep demographic decline; mostly products of CCP ideologically (not market driven) economic and social inepitude.
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  38. The disappearance of young people this way (particularly on school grounds) is both sinister and criminal. We all know who to blame; the criminal minions of the CCP. Making profit from the sale of human organs is a vile criminal act that reaches the nadir of human actions, that only totalitarian governments can tolerate. This is the same for the forced trafficking of young women. In other words, you can barely do worse acts to another human being.
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  39. The CCP Dark Age in China began in 1949 and is ongoing. I repudiate that the CCP are true atheists; they have been correctly identified as a quasi-religion from the work of Christopher Hitchens; "God is not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything", i.e as a quasi-religious dogma eminating from the doctrine of Karl Marx as an ideology. Veneration of Communist leaders such as Lenin, Mao Zedong and Xi Jinping as saints and prophets (including mummification of their corpses for public display) complete the picture of this quasi-religion of Communism with terrible consequences. Much as a real religion does; with all the historical genocides of Crusades, Jihads, Inquisitions and acts of Holy War and so on. This terrible burden of CCP rule on China and the Chinese can only be lifted with the CCP being extirpated from the body politic of China, after which civilization can finally return to the long history of China (pre 1949).
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  40. I bet the CCP does not call these Western countries, e,g USA, UK, France and Germany by these gracious names. Judging by their diplomatic churlishness, probably the opposite. Filthy capitalist country, running dogs of capitalist country etc.
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  41. Western law needs more teeth in dealing with CCP covert operations, which they are clearly skilled at. Classify the CCP as a hostile terrorist organisation in line with Neo-Nazis, left-winged extremists, Japanese ultra-nationalists and religiously inspired terrorist organisations, such as Al-Qaeda. China is becoming North Korea (including eventually getting as poor as it), so forget foreign investment into it's economy. Additionally, stop the CCP buying farms and food processing factories in foreign countries as well (mainly in North America and Australia). It seeks food security by hostile takeover, as the CCP has seriously neglected it's own agricultural reforms and farms in China don't have enough mechanization or people to be viable any more, and they've massively polluted their soils and groundwater.
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  42. I know the PLAAN carriers are fairly useless, but I always respected the size of the PLAAN destroyer force. However, with electronic warfare and battlefield situation it doesn't come close to the abilities of the Western, Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese allies warships, particular in a combined surface ships, submarines and air fleet battlefield awareness situation. It's this lack of combined ability that may make them sitting ducks in a shooting war.
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  43. How does goodness make you win? I'm not advocating for selfishness, turpitude and deception, but if goodness "wins" it needs transparent ethical principals and procedures as tools.
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  44. Forced Organ Harvesting is a Crime Against Humanity.
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  45. Yes, a famous example of a 15 year old youth who dissappeared in his own school grounds, and his body later found in a nearby location, minus many of his organs. Many people in China are volcanically angry about this pure evil and deception (coverup). China isn't very safe, It has a rampant drug and prostitution problem throughout many of it's townships and small cities. Living rough is now a record high because of many failed businesses (the CCP doesn't even bother counting rural unemployment anymore, and the city unemployment is also clearly undercounted). If you thought it is bad in parts of San Francisco for example, think again for China. It's on a whole lot worse social grade widespread homelessness and drug abuse than the United States, bad though it can be there.
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  46. I've worked it oit that the average foreign mercenary in the Russia-Ukrainian war (on the Russian side) probably makes about only $10 per hour for risking his life minute by minute.
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  47. Clearly Chinese police are political agents, less a force to uphold common law. This is because in essence, as a government the CCP are lawless operatives operating via ideology and fiat and now massive financial corruption. Thar is why injustice and crime is so rampant in China and genocide and heinous Crimes Against Humanity (such as forced organ harvesting) in operation. The "law " (or diktats by fiat) is in the hands of the dictator (Xi Jinping) and his bureaucrats, not in a constitution (it has one but it is ignored) and an independent judiciary to maintain law and justice, as is usually the case in democracies. Even a feudal monarchy has less fiat power over it's citizens as does the CCP.
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  48. The CCP in the past have been good at survival, so it won't collapse anything soon, plus it would create a mountain of Chinese corpses to maintain it's power; it has no moral ethic to stop that. It's a grave risk to launch an invasion of the main island of Taiwan, yet I think the CCP might attempt small scale invasions of the Kinmen Islands first (which is Taiwanese sovereign territory), near it's coast. The numbers of PLA troops involved in a Kinmen invasion force would be relatively small, so it will be easier to conceal an invasion force from the defending Taiwanese garrison there, from sudden attack. It would also work in the salami-slicing tactic that the CCP and PLA are so fond of in territorial border disputes and pushback, plus give the CCP a morale boosting victory and (unilateral) unification propaganda ammunition. However, the down side is that the US and their allies will probably launch a Russian-style sanctions against mainland China in essential imports trade over even this limited attack on Taiwan. The CCP leadership probably wants to wait to see how deeply the sanctions are biting Russia before they might commit to invading the Kinmen Isles.
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  49. Whatever the 3-3-16 does, it is not "carefully constructed" but creates rearmament in it's opponents. Particularly, in South-East Asia with the exception of Myamar, Thailand and Laos (not sure why Thailand). Trump may be a bit cool about defending Taiwan, but all the US military don't want Taiwan to fall to the 3-3-16, the geopolitical results of that is far too serious.
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  50. Xi is unlikely to end the CCP and become a hero like Mikhail Gorbachev. If you look closely at the dissolution of the USSR, Gorbachev was not labelled a hero. He was and is still unpopular in Russia. He was only popular in the West. This tells you volumes about the minds and attitudes of people who have long been under a toralitarian system. This system not only warps and distorts the morals and rational judgement of leaders, but the populace as well.
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