Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "Obsession of high-speed rail causes China’s freight, energy, and debt crisis" video.

  1. A thorough analysis of China's deeply indebted and troubled land transport system. But would the rest of the world foot the bill for China's massive debt by using digital RMB? Unless you trade with China (and it will insist on this payment in digital RMB very soon). Anyway, it is outside the SWIFT system making it less attractive, and China's banks are notoriously corrupt. This project desire of a digital world trading currency (the digital RMB), as an alternative to the US dollar is slipping out of the hands of the CCP as it's economy collapses. The CCP is economically now stuck between a rock and a hard place, mostly of it's own making; 1. Continual aggressive Covid lockdowns to placate the incumbent dictator Xi in a crazy Mao fashion. This harms up to 20% of the GDP of China, directly by economic stagnation and costs of continual Covid testing of the population, when the economy of China badly needs the growth now. These Covid lockdowns are also pushing foreign firms and investors to flee China more rapidly than even they planned pre 2022. Another 1% of China's GDP probably permanently lost with all the foreign technology inputs (CCP's technology theft) that comes with that, so the cumulative effect to China's GDP and local unemployment when the foreign firms leave China, is likely significantly higher than 1% loss. 2. Collapse of the real estate building industry. This is a unprecedented real estate bubble bust that makes even the Prime Mortgage in the US in 2008 GFC and the collapse of real estate prices in Japan in the early 1990s look tiny in comparison (not only in relative scale to the economy it affected but in absolute dollar value terms, factored in time for the earlier two smaller US and Japan bursts). This real estate crunch (nearly 30% of China's GDP) is too large for the CCP national treasury to fund a soft landing (unlike with the US Federal Reserve during the GFC), so many Chinese banks will also go under in the next year or so. By this metric, up to half of the GDP of China has already been lost in 2022. I've not even addressed the severe drought and heat waves on diminished electricity production and agriculture on Southern China this year. Is China the second largest economy in the world now? The CCP has run out of revenue and with high unemployment and business failure and international trade disappearing, it can't raise tax renenue and improve balance of trade terms and soon it's treasury will be dry and stagflation will become rampant. Soon China will be smaller than Japan's economy, making it the third, forth, fifth and so on in time with the added impulse of steep demographic decline; mostly products of CCP ideologically (not market driven) economic and social inepitude.
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