Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "What caused China’s real estate bubble and the local government debt crisis?" video.

  1. This impoverishment of provincial governments is a golden excuse for breakaway provinces to form in China, e.g. the Republic of Guangdong. Historically, the breakaway of Chinese provinces from the central government in Beijjng or Nanking (or other historic capitals) has often been a prelude to an end of a Chinese dynasty anyway.
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  2. The graph showing the huge disparity of credit between local and central government is trouble waiting to happen, I.e. provinces or cities breaking away from Beijing and declaring their independence in order to manage and normalise their debt and increase local prosperity of the provincial or city economy. This will force the central Beijing CCP/PLA to militarily invade the breakaway province, which cannot be hidden from neighbouring provinces and the rest of the world. This is a huge risk of civil war in China. Much more than the United States as state rights are enshrined in the US constitution and the US economy is more decentralised (from the US Federal government) than China, hence US states have more fiscal avenues to taxation and raising local treasury revenues than provincial governments in China and hence less economic burdens in an economic shock and reasons to butt heads with the national government.
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