Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "Xi vs Li: Will China’s dual-leadership after the 20th Party Congress change anything?" video.

  1. The CCP in the past have been good at survival, so it won't collapse anything soon, plus it would create a mountain of Chinese corpses to maintain it's power; it has no moral ethic to stop that. It's a grave risk to launch an invasion of the main island of Taiwan, yet I think the CCP might attempt small scale invasions of the Kinmen Islands first (which is Taiwanese sovereign territory), near it's coast. The numbers of PLA troops involved in a Kinmen invasion force would be relatively small, so it will be easier to conceal an invasion force from the defending Taiwanese garrison there, from sudden attack. It would also work in the salami-slicing tactic that the CCP and PLA are so fond of in territorial border disputes and pushback, plus give the CCP a morale boosting victory and (unilateral) unification propaganda ammunition. However, the down side is that the US and their allies will probably launch a Russian-style sanctions against mainland China in essential imports trade over even this limited attack on Taiwan. The CCP leadership probably wants to wait to see how deeply the sanctions are biting Russia before they might commit to invading the Kinmen Isles.
    1