Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "China Observer" channel.

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  31. Russia cannot confront all of NATO directly. Doing so finishes Russia within a year, despite it's size. China's allies are all quite weak; 3 out of 4 nuclear armed, yes, but collectively NATOs nuclear missiles match the number of the "Axis of Evil", only because of Russia. The Soviet Union came to an accord with NATO 35 years ago, under Gorbachev, ending the Cold War. Not just because Gorbachev was friendly to the West, but mainly because the Soviet Union was bankrupt and could not sustain (back then) cost of armament and miitary technology parity with the West with a moribund economy. The CCP launched it's military challenge too early to have an overwhelming buildup in ships and warplanes to challenge the US and it's allies (including some NATO allies). Even in the excess warships (counting hulls, not tonnage), the PLAN ships are not as technologically advanced as the US and Pacific allies and it's sailors are not as well trained. The CCP's idological desire to launch an attack on Taiwan is driven by 2 factors; 1. XI jinping's obsession about this and 2. The failed "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy act as a cover-up for causing the Covid19 pandemic out of Wuhan, China. These investigations are still stymied by the CCP and aggressive denial may be cover for guilt. Especially if "gain of function" germ warfare was pursued. Given the secrecy about this, and other coverups by the CCP such as the genocide of Uyghers in Xinjiang, and other concurrent Crimes Against Humanity by the CCP, we should certainly not trust the word or actions of the CCP these days.
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  36. Because Taiwan is an island, naval and air superior over it must be maintained with intensity, continually for over 60 days by the PLA for any amphibious invasion over it to succeed. Significant lapses in this intensity, due to logistics bottlenecks, enemy counter-offensives or mistakes and false intelligence by the PLA hands time and preparation to the Taiwanese and the allies of Taiwan (primarily the US and Japan). I doubt this is sustained level of intensity is achievable by the PLA for several reasons; 1. Lack of leadership and a comprehensive strategic plan. While this plan is probably still secret by the PLA, the leadership conflict issues are severe, 2. Logistics issues. The PLA has not fought a sustained military conflict for nearly 50 years. They have little experience in maintaining supply lines to battlefields, particularly made worse by a hostile sea barrier, 3. Comprehensive tactical plans of engagement. The PLA has no real plan to engage the Taiwanese air and sea forces effectively long-term, let alone against a major superpower (US) once it becomes actively engaged in the defence of Taiwan. This is in stark contract to Showa Japan in 1940-42, which at least had a partially effective naval and island hopping plan, 4. Political conversion against Taiwanese democracy. Ironically, this is the best chance the CCP has in taking over Taiwan, seeing that both countries share the same language. But because of bellicose territorial aggression by the PLA and Wolf Warrior diplomacy by the CCP, which psychologically tried fear rather than persuasion, this also is a failure.
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  80. Why are people fleeing China in such huge numbers you might ask? The answer- politics and economics (and in China both are overlapping paradigms). Since Xi Jinping has virtually arranged his dictatorship for life (or until assassinated), China's economic course has been going from bad to much worse. Ironically, this increases the burden on the CCP security forces as unrest grows, but as the security forces clamp down more and more oppressively this happens, the more people want to leave China, so it is an unstoppable negative feedback loop (halted only if the CCP is overthrown or China politically collapses). Notably, the millionairs and middle class are leaving in droves first because they have some wealth to protect and they have no confidence in the financial institutions and the current tenancy towards kleptocracy in the government, so this is a strong push factor, as well as the economy on skids. When as many of them with means have left, more poorer young adults from China (note i don't say Chinese. China is actually a multi-ethnic country) will make a hazardous attempt through Latin America or risky staging countries to get to their goals. Probably increasingly, Thailand, Indonesia and North African countries will be targeted as staging countries by people from China , "taking the line"!. Until the CCP goes fully North Korea and bans migration or exit out of China. Including students, and like North Korea executes anyone they catch leaving; this is how stupid evil grows, like the Buddhists say, sow the seeds of their own doom. Unfortunately, I see this happening all too soon: West North Korea.
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  161. This punishing level of education in China is achieving little; the workload given to the student is also punishing to the teacher. Teachers have to mark a mountain of work produced by the student for 14 hours of education per day. The teacher's knowledge is limited as well. Teachers only can teach what they know, not what the curriculum might dictate for such a huge body of work. So essentially students probably repeat subjects often. For example, a math teacher may be required to teach both differential and integral calculus, but he/she only knows differential calculus, so the student gets another round of a topic that has already been taught. The punishing education is orchestrated at the top, not consulted top-to-bottom. This is the modern self-destructive CCP way of doing things. It is unlikely to produce excellence in education as the students will cheat as hard as possible to reduce the workload. This puts extra burden on the honest teachers to unravel plagerism in submitted work. The dishonest teachers will not care about that and deploy favouritism to speed up the marking process. The end result is wasted effort all around. The ethics of the society, as a whole, reflects on the ethics of it's education system. This is partially why China gets stuck in the middle income trap. Finally, there is a sinister mode by the government that sets the curriculum, and it is nothing to do with knowledge. Getting the students to work under a labour-camp 14 hour day conditions has another purpose; forced supervision. While youth are subjected to 14 hours of exhausting supervision, they are not plotting and rioting against the government. The unimaginative CCP only knows one mode; apply the pressure until everything breaks.
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  237. This flip-flopping of attitude is extraordinary. Having been kicking the US for the past 3 to 4 years, to suddenly change course 180 degrees to being subserviently friendly again looks suspicious. Having been kicked for nearly four years (since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, created by the CCP) , the American administration is hardly going to approach China with open arms after this suddenly reverse attitude. Furthermore, this is correctly inferred by this program that Xi Jinping is already personally weakened and even more isolated. He is far from being the dictator of everthing within China, with his grip on power now slipping ever weekly. Even though Biden stated that the door is always open for China, does not mean that he will reverse his hardening policies on China these past two years. This is an invitation for dialogue, not for policy capitulation by the US. Particularly with the advanced chips ban. Since their bashing of the US and it's allies (probably initiated by Xi in 2020), the CCP has unwittingly also revealed much of it's anti-Western strategies and global attempts at chaos for their ideological revolutionary ends, and in revealing this process early means that the West in general has the time to make politically telling countermeasures to this. People in the United States are gradually becoming aware that the CCP is a hostile totalitarian power (Soviet Union 2.0 or worse) that commits systematic genocide and crimes against humanity at home (this is an account of crimes of the present day, not about the past with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping), and ignores or flouts international laws, generally adhered to by sucessive US governments. Xi is in a very bad place indeed. Much of this impasse is by his on own hand, ironically.
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  270. I disagree. XI Jinping is likely to step up PLA recruitment from the country (already happening) and enable a wartime emergency economy gradually as a prelude to an actual attack or blockade of Taiwan (probably happening). There are clear political reasons for this. Wartime emergency economy places Xi Jinping in a greater personal control position over the economy and over wayward and opposing regional or provincial governments and over opposing factions. The Americans, for example, will be smeared with impunity in propaganda in all CCP media outlets and on Western media, like X, as well (already happening). This is in line with scapegoatism politics of thev CCP, Increased austerity, purging and dictatorial control of Xi Jinping though wartime conditions excuses will wrong-foot the Jiang Zemin followers factions within the CCP, which will be advantagous to Xi. in a sense, Xi wants total control of the CCP and a military or coercive victory over Taiwan, ending the historocal democratic threat of the ROC over China permanently, and he's prepared to gamble the future of China and the CCP to get it. While catapulting him into the greatest hero-emperor status and grratest of all CCP leaders. While i acknowlege that the many acute and chronic problems of China are unlikely for Xi Jinping to ever realize his egotistical dream, the attempt, like Hitler's, will plunge the world into a long amd bloody war with the Chinese most likely suffering the greatest degree of casualties (other tha the oppressed minorities of China) That's why China really matters to the rest of the world now.
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  393. I know the expression by Xi Jinping, "common prosperity", seems much more like common poverty (poorer people may be more easily controlled). However, I disagree that some of these actions causing the 8 point malaise outlined by this program is not all planned economic sabotage for the last decade. Some are just blind stupidity and economic ignorance. Governments do make mistakes, and there are consequences in the polls in a democracy. But China is not a democracy, so there are no political feedback mechanisms (such as losing office by vote) that can correct abysmal and irresponsible mistakes made by a perpetual one party state. If China ends up as a giant North Korea or Russia (both grindingly poor and insanely corrupt), then what? We've already seen significant failures of Russians fighting in Ukraine the last couple of years. Russia is imploding from within and also from without, which is a geostrategic serious thing as a continental power with all those bordering countries. Russia is already militarily weak, vis-a-vis NATO (it's external enemy, and China's). If there is one thing that authoritarian states value is military strength. But you can't have military strength anymore without technology and fair competitive training (officers must set the agenda and morale by their actions). China, like Russia and North Korea is facing a military crises now as a result of wrecking it's economy. As a large authoritarian country with sometimes hostile bordering states, it is not (like Russia) in a position to downgrade it's army and airforce too much, but that's precisely what will happen.
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  398. The CCP is it's worst enemy. Mainly the economy and trade is in 5 sectors; manufacturing, tourism, services, building and construction and resources export. (Food, minerals, and hydrocarbons). China is now weak in all these sectors, when prior to 2020 it was strong in four. Briefly explained loss of revenue from housing bubble burst has been thoughly explained in this channel, go see that so construction is partially explained. Tourism has died in 2020 due to aggressive Covid lockdowns then came back briefly early this year, now dying off (except BRI recipients, which are generally poor countries anyway and not open to mass tourism. Tourism is counted as an export). Manfacturing exports are down, partially due to a exodus out of China of these types of businesses from North America and Europe, but also from Japan and South Korea,but also from lacklustre imports from large overseas markets (the rest of the world with money is feeling an economic pinch with consumer goods, because economies there are not doing great either). As for services, The CCP has never been good at providing them to the general population. From hospitals to banking, this has always been a fragile sector in China. The Iron Rice Bowl has largely dissappeared under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Now, with increased military spending on high technology armaments and sensors, and on an ever increasing internal security forces, the CCP has even less money to spend on social services to keep the general population healthy and content. As for resources exports, China is a net importer of food, minerals and energy (whatever lies the CCP tells you about this). The anti-espionage laws have largely driven off existing foreign and potential investors into China. Other than infecting Covid around the world then going into a harsh lockdown for three years, this is the most stupid thing the CCP has done in recent times, and is a function of rabidily nationalistic xenophobia and totalitarian hubris. It will not catch genuine spies and defectors. Xi Jinping is a micromanaging mismanager and probably also a psychopath and criminal in a Hitlerian way, but also becoming more and more isolated within his government system as he purges all that oppose him within the upper echelons of the CCP and PLA. There is no economic relief in China for the forseeable future, as it desdends into a version of West North Korea.
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  401. Xi Jinping, like Mao, Hitler, Stalin etc before him is a pyschcopath, or exhibits extreme sociopath tendencies, and like these group of evil and despicable men, has and is committing genocide and Crimes Against Humanity. The International Court of the Hague, the Netherlands, classifies Crimes Against Humanity as an international writ, and the perpetrators to front up to it. This actually happened in the case of the former President of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic, versus Bosnia in this court. The 1998 Rome statitory of the International Law Court has also codified this article of international law (Xi Jinping of course will ignore it, unless he is captured by Interpol agents). These attributable Crimes Against Humanity, specifically of the forced imprisonment and genocide treatment of the Uygher ethnic group of people in Xinjiang, China,.This crime is specifically caused by the orders of Xi Jinping. Also attributable is the inheritances of crimes committed by previous leaders of the CCP and the one party CCP totalitarian state, in which Xi Jinping has allowed these practises to continue or failed to stop. Specifically, forced human organ harvesting, crimes against Falun Gong practictioners (and against other faiths) and against people of the autonomous region of Tibet and Inner (or Southern) Mongolia. The excessive lockdowns during the Covid19 pandemic might also constitute a new Crime Against Humanity by Xi Jinping. Noteworthy, these Crime Against Humanity laws stand in perpetuity against the individual and his underlings. Meaning, if you are a CCP official and you have committed Crimes Against Humanity under the orders of Xi (including orally transmitted by him or a higher order leader), then you are also indicated by these laws, and can be captured to face justice.
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  518. Geopolitical reality check; the IJN in 1941-42 was a real and potent threat to the USN and then had about double the carriers in the Pacific, with better long-range planes in the A6M Zero, better trained naval pilots at the beginning of the Pacific War and better torpedoes (the USN Mark 14 torpedo was a real lemon). Hence it was within the means of the IJN to win the naval war against the USN in 1942, even though that didn't happen; victory and staying power of the USN in that year was a close-run thing against the might of the IJN. Computer simulation wargaming warning of an imminent defeat of the USN in a war with China is both ridiculous and a political statement (pressuring congress to cough up more money for the navy through panic). The case with the PLAN is that it is not even near the threat of the IJN in 1942 despite there being more warships in the PLAN, especially destroyers, than the USN. The PLAN is barely a blue water navy, it's carriers are sitting ducks and it is hampered by lack of nuclear powered ships and long-range capabilities, training for it's sailors and in anti-submarine warfare. Furthermore, thanks to the control freak mentality of Xi Jinping, it's admirals (unlike Isorocku Yamamoto) are not at all tactical innovators with a rigid command structure at the behest of one-man's decision (Xi's), which is a gridlocked one, especially in a war. The PLAN has nothing but a reactionary plan to low-level harass the Philippines Coast Guard and navy, but even that plan is backfiring against them.
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  614. The CCP ups the anti to the point of war. This can be interpreted as a point of weakness as much as that of strength by the CCP. A more prudent strategy is to withold forces to a sudden eruption and overwhelming force and hence victory. Something that Germany did to France in 1940. However, the propaganda coming out of China probably doesn't come to this concept, neither does the tactics of the PLA. The slow upping the anti does give warning to countries like Taiwan to arm itself and to treat threats from China more and more seriously. Further giving time to strengthen interested allies of Taiwan, particularly Japan, and drawing an allied coalition against the CCP; some with the most powerful countries on Earth. A constructive dialogue can't make headway under such conditions between the CCP and the ROC. The CCPs talk reminds me of the propaganda coming out of Nazi Germany. Why not invade Taiwan now by the PLA? Firstly, weather and tides provide only two windows of opportunity per year in this part of the world. Secondly, attacking an island state is much more difficult to achieve than attacking across a land border. The CCP cannot afford politically to lose an armed contest between itself and the ROC. Losing that war will also lose complete legitimacy by the CCP over China, collapsing CCP authoritarian rule. Hence, The PLA is now stronger militarily, but not strong enough to overwhelm Taiwan main island, and will instead gradually up the anti, but provides time for democracies to rearm. Taking Taiwan through political intrigue by the CCP will be catastrophic to the life, freedoms and economy of Taiwan. Wishful thinking the other way is not viable nor practical. At what point does war breaks out? When a military incident occurs which the CCP cannot back down. Likewise with the government of the day of Taiwan. The Taiwanese don't want war but the CCP does. War is a political act; what will give way? Justice and freedom versus totalitarian hegemony?
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