Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "China Observer"
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Supermarkets in Australia are stable businesses in large towns and cities. It is rare that these food retailers go out if business. Taken over by other corporations and business buyouts; yes, collapse (like the Franklin group in the early 2000s), because an unsustainable business model and over-leveraged credit also yes. But collapse because of drop in consumer demand (except in a few rare places) is almost unheard of. The economic collapse in supermarkets appears to be the case in China in First Tier cities (what is happening in other regional areas and cities in China may be worse), because of low consumer demand. Foreign retail companies are leaving because of poor profits, relatively high overhead costs and less Chinese consumers. The CCP's asinine recent anti-espionage law also targets all foreign businesses in China, so this is also a push factor for foreign companies. Coupled with high unemployment and wage drops for the middle class in China, including erstwhile small business owners who used to be consumers too, when the economy was doing well. China's large population is no longer an asset to it either. With a rapidly aging population due to the One Child Policy, forceably enacted for 40 years since the 1970s has made China's Japanization demographic and economic decline in the 1990s, now similar but also considerably worse than Japan's. Unlike Japan which got rich before it grew old, China overall will not even enjoy this benefit.
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The Soviets did the same in the 1960s by diverting water away from the Amu Darya or Oxus river in Central Asia for cotton irrigation, which fed water annually to the Aral Sea (previously a giant freshwater lake, despite the "sea" suffix). This was the Soviet's, "mankind's engineering to conquor nature", a similar sentiment echoed by the CCP over their even larger hydrological construction, the Three Gorges Dam. By 2000, more than two thirds of the Aral Sea had shrunk, the remaining water was too salty for the native fish to live in and the previously thriving fishing industry on it had vanished and in the semi-arid climate of the steppe, the exposed lake bed of millions of hectares had become exposed and a dust-bowl harbouring toxic levels of pesticide residue (such as DDT whose toxic bi-products remains in the soil for over 300 years) had become airborne with the dust, affecting the health of everyone living in that area. How is the Three Gorges Dam going to environmentally play out? Too early to tell if it's going to be a disaster as bad or worse than the Aral Sea, but time will tell.
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Vietnam has a kong history with China.. of being invaded. Vietnam also has had a long history of resisting these invasions (except cultural, like Rome some things that came out of China were appreciated), to the great annoyance of the Chinese. But like the Romans, the Chinese emipres of old and the current CCP indicate that China is an expansionist land power, and continually pushes at it's borders into smaller bordering states like Vietnam.
The French invasion of the nineteenth century, and the Americans of the twentieth of Vietnam were eggregious, but not of prime importance to the Vietnamese, because once the whites were gone they were unlikely to return as hostile invaders, and their homelands are far away.
Unfortunately, to the Vietnamese, China is awlawys there and continually grabbing parcels of land off of it. The massacre of 80รท Vietnamese at the Battle of the Spratley Islands probably is another untold chapter of enormities against Vietnam that the Vietnamese have not forgotten.
It would not suprise me, that when the CCP collapses, the Vietnamese may re-occupy the Paracel Islands and some parts of it's Northern provinces that China grabbed off it in tbe 1979 Sino-Vietnamese war. There may also be temptation for the Vietnamese to take over Heinan island, if they are strong enough at sea.
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Russia cannot confront all of NATO directly. Doing so finishes Russia within a year, despite it's size. China's allies are all quite weak; 3 out of 4 nuclear armed, yes, but collectively NATOs nuclear missiles match the number of the "Axis of Evil", only because of Russia. The Soviet Union came to an accord with NATO 35 years ago, under Gorbachev, ending the Cold War. Not just because Gorbachev was friendly to the West, but mainly because the Soviet Union was bankrupt and could not sustain (back then) cost of armament and miitary technology parity with the West with a moribund economy. The CCP launched it's military challenge too early to have an overwhelming buildup in ships and warplanes to challenge the US and it's allies (including some NATO allies). Even in the excess warships (counting hulls, not tonnage), the PLAN ships are not as technologically advanced as the US and Pacific allies and it's sailors are not as well trained. The CCP's idological desire to launch an attack on Taiwan is driven by 2 factors; 1. XI jinping's obsession about this and 2. The failed "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy act as a cover-up for causing the Covid19 pandemic out of Wuhan, China. These investigations are still stymied by the CCP and aggressive denial may be cover for guilt. Especially if "gain of function" germ warfare was pursued. Given the secrecy about this, and other coverups by the CCP such as the genocide of Uyghers in Xinjiang, and other concurrent Crimes Against Humanity by the CCP, we should certainly not trust the word or actions of the CCP these days.
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Because Taiwan is an island, naval and air superior over it must be maintained with intensity, continually for over 60 days by the PLA for any amphibious invasion over it to succeed. Significant lapses in this intensity, due to logistics bottlenecks, enemy counter-offensives or mistakes and false intelligence by the PLA hands time and preparation to the Taiwanese and the allies of Taiwan (primarily the US and Japan).
I doubt this is sustained level of intensity is achievable by the PLA for several reasons; 1. Lack of leadership and a comprehensive strategic plan. While this plan is probably still secret by the PLA, the leadership conflict issues are severe, 2. Logistics issues. The PLA has not fought a sustained military conflict for nearly 50 years. They have little experience in maintaining supply lines to battlefields, particularly made worse by a hostile sea barrier, 3. Comprehensive tactical plans of engagement. The PLA has no real plan to engage the Taiwanese air and sea forces effectively long-term, let alone against a major superpower (US) once it becomes actively engaged in the defence of Taiwan. This is in stark contract to Showa Japan in 1940-42, which at least had a partially effective naval and island hopping plan, 4. Political conversion against Taiwanese democracy. Ironically, this is the best chance the CCP has in taking over Taiwan, seeing that both countries share the same language. But because of bellicose territorial aggression by the PLA and Wolf Warrior diplomacy by the CCP, which psychologically tried fear rather than persuasion, this also is a failure.
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Paying Africans to graduate at high level Chinese tertiary institutions are actually quite clever from the CCP's directives (i have viewed asinine decision after decision from the CCP, so i was getting used to the bureaucratic idiocracy as being the norm), because it will be the social elite from Africa that will go to China, providing a favourable view of China later, when many of these graduates go into senior government positions there. This will enable the CCP to more deeply get it's hooks into the natural resources of Africa. This is all smart planning, except Xi Jinping is planning a war, possibly evoloving into a world war, which he hopes the West will half-heartedly fight then concede a lot to the CCP. A war means Africa's resources will be blockaded in shipping by the strongest navies, which is not the CCP (tactically, Japan during WW2 had a better chance of defeating the US navy than China would now). A tame backdown to China would not only be humiliating but also suicidal to the West, which traditionally does not happen if u are a student of history. Hitler had a similar attitude to the "decadence" of democracies as XI Jinping, and even when the war was going badly in 1942, the Allies conceded nothing to the Axis power voluntarily and only surrended by overwhelming force in theaters. It seeems Xi is stuck in the same mindset.
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In the battle of Kapyong, in the Korean War, Chinese soldiers attacked Australian and Canadian dug-in entrenched location with interlocking fire. The Chinese outnumbered the Australians and Canadians 10:1. Incredibly, the Chinese attacked in waves while not applying freindly fire support from artillery and mortars, when running into the interlocking Australian and Canadian fire. It appears that when invading Korea, the PLA did not include artillery units with their soldiers. Additionally, scything down the Chinese was accurate supporting battery fire to the Australians and Canadians from New Zeland artillery units. In the attack which lasted all night, only one Australian trench was taken, which was later regained when the Chinese retreated, yes retreated. In fighting the Korean War the Chinese did not deploy modern and professional methods in attacking some of the best trained military professionals having extensive World War 2 battlefield experience, and consequently their casualties were very high and the true casualty figures were supressed by the CCP. The modern PLA mentality is the same; stupidity push their poorly trained soldiers into a meat grinder than banally claim martyrs success. I'm amazed that such a base exploitative system has lasted the test of time.
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At the end of the lockdowns in Australia, a large Australian city (sorry, I can't disclose the city name as the CCP often tracks me and records my comments), had the Omicron variant Covid shut down lifted in April 2022 (this was state border lockdowns, during the pandemic, people were still allowed to shop locally). Many small cafes and restaurants in a popular recreational area in the city were permanently closed, as I noticed a few months later. However, it seems that Shanghai, a very large and (former) cosmopolitan city, probably the richest city in China per capita, is suffering much worse scale of bankruptcy in small and medium business, as the Australian city I was in.
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Why are people fleeing China in such huge numbers you might ask? The answer- politics and economics (and in China both are overlapping paradigms). Since Xi Jinping has virtually arranged his dictatorship for life (or until assassinated), China's economic course has been going from bad to much worse. Ironically, this increases the burden on the CCP security forces as unrest grows, but as the security forces clamp down more and more oppressively this happens, the more people want to leave China, so it is an unstoppable negative feedback loop (halted only if the CCP is overthrown or China politically collapses). Notably, the millionairs and middle class are leaving in droves first because they have some wealth to protect and they have no confidence in the financial institutions and the current tenancy towards kleptocracy in the government, so this is a strong push factor, as well as the economy on skids. When as many of them with means have left, more poorer young adults from China (note i don't say Chinese. China is actually a multi-ethnic country) will make a hazardous attempt through Latin America or risky staging countries to get to their goals. Probably increasingly, Thailand, Indonesia and North African countries will be targeted as staging countries by people from China , "taking the line"!. Until the CCP goes fully North Korea and bans migration or exit out of China. Including students, and like North Korea executes anyone they catch leaving; this is how stupid evil grows, like the Buddhists say, sow the seeds of their own doom. Unfortunately, I see this happening all too soon: West North Korea.
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The PLAN were pumping out surface warships, particularly frigates and destroyers, but the weapon systems aboard these ships are not tested under combat conditions, except low intensity in the South China Sea and the Senkaku Islands, and the crews are pretty green as well, undertrained with corruption issues. Futhermore, their combat systems requires advanced chips which they can no longer source from other countries, such as Taiwan, making future ship building just churning out defenceless hulls and superstructure. This is the surface fleet division of the PLAN that is of most concern to opposing navies, because of it's size, not their carrier strike group which would be less capable than the UK RN or the self defence navy of Japan carrier forces,
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It's interesting that in China, the majority of real estate in first and second level tier cities is investment property, not property for iving in (except before, tenants). Now, that investment has collapsed, spectacularly,and the prices keep heading South. For how long? Probably for months or years. Australia is going to mirror this effect in China about a year later, of course although not as severely. People who have bought houses in the last 5 to 10 years here are losing investment value with record high interest rates., particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Like Shanghai, Australia's ultra high housing prices in these cities is unsustainable with growth of salaries, except notably in the very rich. None if this is good news for either the government's of China or Australia, and unlike Australia, the government does not have to win a popularity content to get voted back in China, in which real estate issues are a political factor. However, even as a single party state, the CCP loses legitimacy over this issue. Shedding Xi Jinping as leader (voluntarily or involuntarily) is unlikely to fix this issue of a housing crises with the CCP, as China dives into demographic decline.
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Firstly, the lives in excess of 5 million people hangs in the balance, if or when this dam catastrophically fails. Since the failure is likely when the water level is highest, during an extensive La Nina wet season (because of the maximum stress the dam then will experience), then the failure will be catastrophic indeed and is most likely to occur then, and the CCP will be unlikely to politically survive such a calamity. Secondly, many civil engineers have already commented already about the quality of the concrete in the The Gorges Dam, which i am not qualified to comment on. However, as dam designs go, an overall parabolic shape is common for dams and reservoirs as this overall design is structurally much stronger in holding back the water body behind it. The Three Gorges Dam, massive though it is, does not have this overall shape. I wonder why?
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The CCP might issue a wartime economy. Actually, I think it's already done this, in a sense, since 2021 during the severe Covid lockdown phases. So, the economic pinch that is being felt in the China domestic economy as a whole, affects the wartime command economy of the CCP less. However, in WW2 when Britain and the United States issued war bonds to pay for armament, the amount of private wealth per capita was considerably higher than in China now, since many rich people have already fled that country. The CCP makes many mistakes, for the wartime economy it is developing, this is a serious one letting the rich leave. If the CCP is seriously considering waging a kinetic war against Taiwan.
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A fairly good appraisal with some more caveats. In 1941, the Japanese Showa Empire, did have a superior carrier strike force in comparison to the US in the Pacific. At the outbreak of the Pacfic War, the IJN had 6 carriers in comparison to the USN's 3, although the IJN had only double the aircraft over the slightly larger USN carriers, but with superior IJN planes, torpedoes and pilots (at the beginning of the Pacific War), the first year possibility of a crippling naval defeat was touch-and-go with the Americans (even with the JN25 crypography advantage) in that war. We all know how the Pacific War went for Japan. Now, the PLAN dares to "challenge" the USN with 11 nuclear powered supercarriers, versus 2 Soviet 1980s designed smaller diesel powered carriers, and a newer diesel powered flatbed carrier showing cracks on the decking near the fantail, with at least 6 times the planes of the USN carrier strike force with superior stealth design? As a naval force multiplier, the PLAN doesn't even rate to the 2 UK's Royal Navy nuclear powered supercarriers. It's a suicide show to contemplate naval war against the USN in the Pacific now.
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This punishing level of education in China is achieving little; the workload given to the student is also punishing to the teacher. Teachers have to mark a mountain of work produced by the student for 14 hours of education per day. The teacher's knowledge is limited as well. Teachers only can teach what they know, not what the curriculum might dictate for such a huge body of work. So essentially students probably repeat subjects often. For example, a math teacher may be required to teach both differential and integral calculus, but he/she only knows differential calculus, so the student gets another round of a topic that has already been taught.
The punishing education is orchestrated at the top, not consulted top-to-bottom. This is the modern self-destructive CCP way of doing things. It is unlikely to produce excellence in education as the students will cheat as hard as possible to reduce the workload. This puts extra burden on the honest teachers to unravel plagerism in submitted work. The dishonest teachers will not care about that and deploy favouritism to speed up the marking process. The end result is wasted effort all around. The ethics of the society, as a whole, reflects on the ethics of it's education system. This is partially why China gets stuck in the middle income trap.
Finally, there is a sinister mode by the government that sets the curriculum, and it is nothing to do with knowledge. Getting the students to work under a labour-camp 14 hour day conditions has another purpose; forced supervision. While youth are subjected to 14 hours of exhausting supervision, they are not plotting and rioting against the government. The unimaginative CCP only knows one mode; apply the pressure until everything breaks.
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If bribery of academics is employed by cheating Chinese students in foreign countries, then without exposing the fraud, plagiarism or substitution and failing the offending student or students, the academic risks his or her own standing and employment by the institute. Or this should be the case and legally challenged if gone unpenalized. As for substitution for a proxy in sitting the exams, then a frintprint or retinal scan of a student entering the exam hall, for certain critical subjects, should be carried out. Actually, inking fingerprints can be made on the exam paper as a method of checking identity to the actual original candidate. Futhermore, for PhD and other postgraduate theses, making the student to verbally defend their thesis as part of the examination process (as occurs in some European countries), will assist in catching out the student who is cheating, plagiarising or ghost-writing their thesis.
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A price reduction war means negative profits for auto EV car makers in China for each car sold. This adds up to real debt, as the EV companies must borrow to keep manufacturing. Worse, there is no end in sight in this madness .No more good times will come whereby making EVs will go back into the black again to reverse the hedonistic level of debt, especially with the private money economy of China collapsed and no productivity growth to reverse it. Outside China in First World economies like the EU and the US, trade protectionism will be enacted to protect their own auto manufacturers, making profitable export lead growth of badly built China EVs, more and more unlikely. Like everything in China, the government ultimately owns the debt, but unlike private enterprise, itself cannot go into liquidation. The end result for China is a zombie economy and massive government debt to itself. Foreign investors will treat China as an untouchable sphere, like a plague carrying patient, as they will not receive economic growth benefits, The economy of China remains a cold corpse under Xi Jinping and the CCP, and the world eventualy passes it by and advances without China, leaving it irreversibly further and further behind. This is the North Korea model of poverty stagnation. The cost of doing business with a totalitarian government in charge.
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The lack of consumption across China must affect treasury revenue, particularly in taxes. "Looming deflation"? It's already been there since 2022.
It's an economic (and psychological) depression environment, like the United States in the 1930s, now in China. Lack of consumption leads to lack of jobs and failure in small business (which is also collectively, a large employer). Without consumption and real estate, banks also suffer as loans are defaulted, no growth of loans or savings.
The US left the depression environment in 1941, not principally due to rearmament (which mainly occurred later during World War 2), but mainly concurrent population growth that restarted consumption and an improvement in banking and consumer protection laws that stimulated investment. China cannot look forward to population based consumption growth in the future, partially as a result of the One Child Policy and one of the world's lowest (birth rate) replacement values. As for investor confidence? The Xi Jinping dictatorship has killed that.
The rest of the world is not feeling much of the depression that is now constricting China. This is because CCP has partially acted as an autarky (to limit foreign debts), i.e. limiting importing finished goods manufactured by other countries via sky-high tarrifs. As a result, the world has bypassed China as a buyer of finished goods and is not much affected by the depression there.
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This flip-flopping of attitude is extraordinary. Having been kicking the US for the past 3 to 4 years, to suddenly change course 180 degrees to being subserviently friendly again looks suspicious. Having been kicked for nearly four years (since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, created by the CCP) , the American administration is hardly going to approach China with open arms after this suddenly reverse attitude. Furthermore, this is correctly inferred by this program that Xi Jinping is already personally weakened and even more isolated. He is far from being the dictator of everthing within China, with his grip on power now slipping ever weekly. Even though Biden stated that the door is always open for China, does not mean that he will reverse his hardening policies on China these past two years. This is an invitation for dialogue, not for policy capitulation by the US. Particularly with the advanced chips ban. Since their bashing of the US and it's allies (probably initiated by Xi in 2020), the CCP has unwittingly also revealed much of it's anti-Western strategies and global attempts at chaos for their ideological revolutionary ends, and in revealing this process early means that the West in general has the time to make politically telling countermeasures to this. People in the United States are gradually becoming aware that the CCP is a hostile totalitarian power (Soviet Union 2.0 or worse) that commits systematic genocide and crimes against humanity at home (this is an account of crimes of the present day, not about the past with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping), and ignores or flouts international laws, generally adhered to by sucessive US governments. Xi is in a very bad place indeed. Much of this impasse is by his on own hand, ironically.
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Their education system, with the merciless and time-wasting CCP b*llshit removed from, would be quite good in China. Unfortunately, Big Brother (Xi Jinping) is everywhere in schools and colleges in which the substantial portion of the curriculum time is spent wasting reading his words (his pea-brained thoughts), this is compulsory. Mao was much the same as Xi in meddling in education by adding his merciless ideology (Xi models his government on Maoist times, and we all know how very badly that went for most Chinese; if you survived it), as well Mao turned schools into violent ideological battlegrounds between students and teachers, in which countless people were brutalized and murdered. China under the CCP is a one step forward, two steps backwards kind of society and this is reflected in it's massive corruption, lack of freedom (for intellectuals as well), which stifles innovation, and draconian oppression. That's why the brain-drain occurs in China. The smart people do their best to leave China, not because they hate their country, but because they hate the CCP.
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I disagree. XI Jinping is likely to step up PLA recruitment from the country (already happening) and enable a wartime emergency economy gradually as a prelude to an actual attack or blockade of Taiwan (probably happening). There are clear political reasons for this. Wartime emergency economy places Xi Jinping in a greater personal control position over the economy and over wayward and opposing regional or provincial governments and over opposing factions. The Americans, for example, will be smeared with impunity in propaganda in all CCP media outlets and on Western media, like X, as well (already happening). This is in line with scapegoatism politics of thev CCP, Increased austerity, purging and dictatorial control of Xi Jinping though wartime conditions excuses will wrong-foot the Jiang Zemin followers factions within the CCP, which will be advantagous to Xi. in a sense, Xi wants total control of the CCP and a military or coercive victory over Taiwan, ending the historocal democratic threat of the ROC over China permanently, and he's prepared to gamble the future of China and the CCP to get it. While catapulting him into the greatest hero-emperor status and grratest of all CCP leaders. While i acknowlege that the many acute and chronic problems of China are unlikely for Xi Jinping to ever realize his egotistical dream, the attempt, like Hitler's, will plunge the world into a long amd bloody war with the Chinese most likely suffering the greatest degree of casualties (other tha the oppressed minorities of China) That's why China really matters to the rest of the world now.
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I've already recognised the totalitarian "Big Brother" risk that CCP China now poses, even though others i've talked to don't recognise that risk. This is mainly because some have some socialist sympathy with Communism from their student days at university or are politically naive or may have business interests in China (although the tables have turned on them too). In any case, i think i'm more politically astute about China and the CCP, and they are less so. Anyway, like September 1st, 1939 (Hitlers invasion of Poland), many people at that time were shocked and amazed by that event because "they" had been listening to their own movies in their heads about the Nazis in their own mind and had been ignoring reality. Again, i will not be shocked to find when i wake up one day that the CCP is attempting to invade Taiwan. However, unlike Poland, the war will drag on longer than a few mere weeks, and the fighting, most likely, will go against the CCp.
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The folding blanket farce is a festival of stupid and idiotic purity. Worse, it's a bullying excuse of bastardry by the NCOs, who themselves are bullied by higher ranks and so on. It also encourages robotic obedience, not initiative, teamwork and planning. Physical fitness is important, but should not be the only goal.
Ultimately, the blanket farce amongst others is a time-wasting exercise, where the recuit should be trained in useful martial skills such as marksmanship, tactical infantry defence and offensive tactics, battlefield infiltration, use of drones and so on.
The PLA training results are poorly trained soldiers with little iniative. Initiative (while obeying orders) might mean life or death. Thinking soldiers are effective soldiers. The CCP does not encourage thinking as it might lead to a military coup.
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Buying a Chimese EV in Europe might seem value for money for an EU consumer, but the hidden costs are many in comparison to other established competing foreign brand cars, particularly from Japanese or Korean automobile manufacturers, who have similar build quality to European manufacturers. The build culture in CCP China (not Taiwan), is to make products cheaper and cheaper but by substituting fake and shoddily made car parts. Since 90% of the car cannot be seen by just casually looking at it, these problems become manifold. Furthermore, long established automobile companies, like Toyota and Hyundai have a mature and usually fairly cost efficient system of acquiring replacement car parts in many countries they trade with. The Chinese companies like BYD, do not have an efficient parts replacement system, consequently their parts may be significantly more expensive to replace, in comparison to Japanese and Korean cars, and take longer to arrive at the maintenance garage, and have doubtful quality control.
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With the world opening up after the pandemic lockdowns, many China financial scams, ponzi schemes and extortions go onto the internet and go international to rob foreigners of most of their money. Many of these are facilitated though social media as "pig butchering" scams, where pretty young Chinese women pretend to date a Westerner, Japanese or Korean guy to set them up for the "kill", through fraudulent money transactions and investment schemes (these women usually have mob handlers behind the scenes). It all takes weeks or months of coaxing, but the besotted foreigner can pay up big altogether, so organized transnational crime in China is set up well for this; their firewall has holes in it to let crime through or the scam is carried on in another relatively unrestricted internet country like Myanmar, that is open for China "business". The CCP does not care a damn about foreigners being scammed; it is nationalistic Han ethnocentic thinking and it apparently has scarce resources to shut down these fraud operations by policing action. Noteably, it's on to anyone in a nanosecond criticizing the central CCP government, but lets massive internet fraud flourish from China.
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If you are over 45 in China, you risk stavation. If u r under 25, you don't have enough experience to find work, and you risk starvation. Even if you are the right age (25-44), you can't earn enough and you risk starvation and for all your family members relying on you, they will starve. This is socialism, but the CCP high officials have enough not to starve. Their ideological b*llsh*t rings more and more hollow for the starving masses of China. Now returning to the countryside, at least you might be able to grow food, if the agricultural police don't stop you. This is Xi Jinping's, "stable China", and even under the CCP it didn't have to be as bad as this. The nonsense about the people of the UK and US starvating (up to 25% of people in the US starve apparently) is pure projection false propaganda and "what about" ism. No one has starved in the UK since the 1840s potato blight, and never in the US.
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This is surface personality. Li was genuinely Li, but Xi Jinping publically hides his psychopathic tendencies beneath an outward mask of dullness. But Xi is no dullard. He's not that intelligent, that is true, but his cunning and conniving makes up for his relative lack of grey matter. To purge and neutralise so many opponents in the early part of his reign, was no small achievement. Xi actually plays quite a complex game of politics, but his overarching desire for total control and micromanagement and his ideological Maoism has made his wheels fall off. He is now fairly isolated and ineffectual. Incidences, like the spy balloon flight across North America was probably not initiated by him, but is indicative of his actual lack of control and oppertunism of others in his name, Xi is definitely not a "good guy", but the balloon flight achieved very little; it put the US government more on guard and delayed him from seeing Blinken for several months. I think Xi probably did not endorse it. Definitely now, there has been no more spy balloons flying over the US for nearly a year; probably testimony to Xi's disapproval of this.
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The CCP and it's corporate shells like Huawei, don't innovate. Chinese native made EVs are not well made because the CCP culture of, "if you can cheat, then cheat". Hence, I don't trust anything made on China, particularly if it has communication quantities like mobile phones or EVs (EVs have inbuilt navigation software), which the the CCP uploads through the weakness of the software security (the weakness is deliberate, the CCP want ease to collect data of everyone). This is their backdoor access. The majority of Chinese, ironically like majority of Westerners, don't care about or are ignorant of the way their personal information goes straight to CCP databases, often for nefarious purposes like control and blackmail.
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It's the Great Leap Forward mass starvation event again. Lockdowns and ridiculous human chain passing vegetables, but hundreds of thousands, possibly millions now in China are dying of starvation and medical neglect (barefoot doctors in Mao's era). All of this is for a political reason, just a few words from the dictator create such mass harm under the umbrella of pandemic prevention (a double lie because there are now fewer and fewer people worldwide dying of Covid). The only bright side to this horrible arrangement as a foreigner is that mass death does not need to come from flying over and dropping bombs on Chinese cities in a war. With conventional bombs, the death toll would be likely to be the same as the starvation lockdowns (people can go to air raid shelters). The CCP is at war against the ordinary people of China, that much is clear. With that, who needs to bomb China from the outside to wage war with the CCP? The CCP will get all the blame, and as a foreigner, i can wash my hands of it by getting of the hook by my government waging war against the CCP and killing Chinese, as a consequence by the CCP doing this dirty work against their own people. Even better, the CCP cannot launch an attack and kill people in my own country (unless during a hot war). Even the Nazis were not that stupid.
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I know the expression by Xi Jinping, "common prosperity", seems much more like common poverty (poorer people may be more easily controlled). However, I disagree that some of these actions causing the 8 point malaise outlined by this program is not all planned economic sabotage for the last decade. Some are just blind stupidity and economic ignorance. Governments do make mistakes, and there are consequences in the polls in a democracy. But China is not a democracy, so there are no political feedback mechanisms (such as losing office by vote) that can correct abysmal and irresponsible mistakes made by a perpetual one party state. If China ends up as a giant North Korea or Russia (both grindingly poor and insanely corrupt), then what? We've already seen significant failures of Russians fighting in Ukraine the last couple of years. Russia is imploding from within and also from without, which is a geostrategic serious thing as a continental power with all those bordering countries. Russia is already militarily weak, vis-a-vis NATO (it's external enemy, and China's). If there is one thing that authoritarian states value is military strength. But you can't have military strength anymore without technology and fair competitive training (officers must set the agenda and morale by their actions). China, like Russia and North Korea is facing a military crises now as a result of wrecking it's economy. As a large authoritarian country with sometimes hostile bordering states, it is not (like Russia) in a position to downgrade it's army and airforce too much, but that's precisely what will happen.
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The CCP is it's worst enemy. Mainly the economy and trade is in 5 sectors; manufacturing, tourism, services, building and construction and resources export. (Food, minerals, and hydrocarbons). China is now weak in all these sectors, when prior to 2020 it was strong in four. Briefly explained loss of revenue from housing bubble burst has been thoughly explained in this channel, go see that so construction is partially explained. Tourism has died in 2020 due to aggressive Covid lockdowns then came back briefly early this year, now dying off (except BRI recipients, which are generally poor countries anyway and not open to mass tourism. Tourism is counted as an export). Manfacturing exports are down, partially due to a exodus out of China of these types of businesses from North America and Europe, but also from Japan and South Korea,but also from lacklustre imports from large overseas markets (the rest of the world with money is feeling an economic pinch with consumer goods, because economies there are not doing great either). As for services, The CCP has never been good at providing them to the general population. From hospitals to banking, this has always been a fragile sector in China. The Iron Rice Bowl has largely dissappeared under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. Now, with increased military spending on high technology armaments and sensors, and on an ever increasing internal security forces, the CCP has even less money to spend on social services to keep the general population healthy and content. As for resources exports, China is a net importer of food, minerals and energy (whatever lies the CCP tells you about this). The anti-espionage laws have largely driven off existing foreign and potential investors into China. Other than infecting Covid around the world then going into a harsh lockdown for three years, this is the most stupid thing the CCP has done in recent times, and is a function of rabidily nationalistic xenophobia and totalitarian hubris. It will not catch genuine spies and defectors. Xi Jinping is a micromanaging mismanager and probably also a psychopath and criminal in a Hitlerian way, but also becoming more and more isolated within his government system as he purges all that oppose him within the upper echelons of the CCP and PLA. There is no economic relief in China for the forseeable future, as it desdends into a version of West North Korea.
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Xi Jinping, like Mao, Hitler, Stalin etc before him is a pyschcopath, or exhibits extreme sociopath tendencies, and like these group of evil and despicable men, has and is committing genocide and Crimes Against Humanity. The International Court of the Hague, the Netherlands, classifies Crimes Against Humanity as an international writ, and the perpetrators to front up to it. This actually happened in the case of the former President of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic, versus Bosnia in this court. The 1998 Rome statitory of the International Law Court has also codified this article of international law (Xi Jinping of course will ignore it, unless he is captured by Interpol agents). These attributable Crimes Against Humanity, specifically of the forced imprisonment and genocide treatment of the Uygher ethnic group of people in Xinjiang, China,.This crime is specifically caused by the orders of Xi Jinping. Also attributable is the inheritances of crimes committed by previous leaders of the CCP and the one party CCP totalitarian state, in which Xi Jinping has allowed these practises to continue or failed to stop. Specifically, forced human organ harvesting, crimes against Falun Gong practictioners (and against other faiths) and against people of the autonomous region of Tibet and Inner (or Southern) Mongolia. The excessive lockdowns during the Covid19 pandemic might also constitute a new Crime Against Humanity by Xi Jinping. Noteworthy, these Crime Against Humanity laws stand in perpetuity against the individual and his underlings. Meaning, if you are a CCP official and you have committed Crimes Against Humanity under the orders of Xi (including orally transmitted by him or a higher order leader), then you are also indicated by these laws, and can be captured to face justice.
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China copies, borrows and steals everything from other developed countries, it does not effectively invent anything of it's own. Arguably, this is not due to Chinese culture, but to the corrupt and oppressive CCP culture. Insofar as aviation is concerned, i will not fly in a C919 jet knowingly, and if i happen to be in one, i will change my tickets to fly in an airline that does not use this jet. My safety is paramount when flying, and i have less confidence in the outcomes of testing aviation engineers in China, than in Western countries, due to systemic corrupt shortcut practiees by the CCP.
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A lot of medium to large manufacturing companies in China are SOI's meaning taxpayer's money built it and then money was wasted.
It's not what the people in the West understand, that a lot of taxpayer money in China does not go enough into schools and roads and hospitals. Certainly not into social security, but in useless zombie enterprises like this, which would normally be private enterprise in other countries, One day soon, all the taxpayer money will run out because the CCP, by and large, does not borrow funds from foreign capital; it's too scared of too many strings attached.
Lithium batteries built in China are also problematic; many of these batteries are poorly built leading to excessive battery fires. For EVs, because of the large size of these batteries, this is a very serious hazard. China has under-productive and over-worked workers. These workers, futhermore, are disinterested in quality control because of coercion leading to systematic poor manufacturing quality control issues and a culture of corruption and cutting corners. This is partly a function of totalitarian societies where virtual slavery exists.
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With medium and long range missiles, firing so far down-range requires a superlative guidance system even ballistically to hit the target. The so-called carrier killers are only effective at stationary carriers (I.e. when docked), provided they know where they are. A carrier fleet group on sea patrol does not steam in a straight line from point A to point B, because of the submarine risk and targeting risk. Hence the carrier is unpredictably under vectoring movement up to 30 knots (55 kilometres per hour) and is difficult to target, even by a ballistic missile arriving minutes after it launched (at long range). In 4 minutes the carrier has already moved 3.66 kilometres from where it was before. Missing this far is a big miss, and this is assuming a line, not an arc like it would be, which would make the miss far worse. Furthermore, radar from ships, planes and radar stations can detect the flight of ballistic missiles, so the carrier fleet group likely will have have time to evade the incoming ballistic missiles and launch countermeasures. Launching dozens of expensive mid or long range ballistic missiles at once might improve the chance of hitting, but if you've delivered over half the missiles in your arsenal and if you have missed the carrier then this is as good as lost the sea battle.
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This is very interesting, and I suspected it, but I did not quite anticipate the depth of corruption in the PLA. In any large organization, there is always individuals who seek (financial) advantage for themselves, in which the (outwardly) upright or professional nature of the institution is a cloak for their greed and base instincts. For example, for the corrupt rank promotion is mearly a means to gain a higher salary and perks; not an echelon of professionalism to advance one's competitive capabilities and war making skills. This may be the case for a few corrupt individuals, for example, in the US armed forces, but they are in the minority in a competitive professional system with a legal framework of behaviour, will ultimately sideline, call them out or eject them. This seems to be the mirror opposite in the PLA. The upright officers who are professionally interested in martial skills are sidelined whereas the corrupt and base (unprofessional) officers are promoted into arenas of great responsibility, which they use to their own personal enrichment, not to advance leadership, tactical and strategic skills and an esprit de corps. Hence, the PLA is weakened in defence and offence by these long standing issues, and is likely not to fight effectively and efficiently if it came to an actual war.
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China is wrecking EV markets globally, because the global consumer eventually gets caught in the scam and fewer and fewer people will buy them out of skepticism and safety issues. This is not such a bad thing. Chinese made lithium batteries catch uncontrollable thermal runaway fires far too often, which can't be extinguished by normal fire hydrants because the fire provides it's own oxygen (I,e. Could burn in an airless environment, like the moon). This makes storage of EVs in places like underground and high rise carparks highly risky. Let alone in garages in houses. The additional predatory market practises by CCP China and their poor and fake safety features in EVs in comparison to how cars could be quality built, is also hampering EV sales. Eventually, selling EVs will die. No one will want them. This is already happening. Additionally, hybrid vehicles will also face a similar decline after EVs have had their day, for similar safety concern and poor quality build control reasons. I already know a person (not me) who has bought a foreign exported BYD EV, and the battery has died within 20,000 kilometres of use.
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Geopolitical reality check; the IJN in 1941-42 was a real and potent threat to the USN and then had about double the carriers in the Pacific, with better long-range planes in the A6M Zero, better trained naval pilots at the beginning of the Pacific War and better torpedoes (the USN Mark 14 torpedo was a real lemon). Hence it was within the means of the IJN to win the naval war against the USN in 1942, even though that didn't happen; victory and staying power of the USN in that year was a close-run thing against the might of the IJN. Computer simulation wargaming warning of an imminent defeat of the USN in a war with China is both ridiculous and a political statement (pressuring congress to cough up more money for the navy through panic). The case with the PLAN is that it is not even near the threat of the IJN in 1942 despite there being more warships in the PLAN, especially destroyers, than the USN. The PLAN is barely a blue water navy, it's carriers are sitting ducks and it is hampered by lack of nuclear powered ships and long-range capabilities, training for it's sailors and in anti-submarine warfare. Furthermore, thanks to the control freak mentality of Xi Jinping, it's admirals (unlike Isorocku Yamamoto) are not at all tactical innovators with a rigid command structure at the behest of one-man's decision (Xi's), which is a gridlocked one, especially in a war. The PLAN has nothing but a reactionary plan to low-level harass the Philippines Coast Guard and navy, but even that plan is backfiring against them.
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What is really interesting is the current CCP's belligerent ultra-nationalist focus of forced unification with Taiwan (re-unification is wrong; the CCP has never ruled this island) has focussed critical thinkers and Chinese students on the society and government of Taiwan as a whole; a mainly ethnic Chinese country. To their suprise they discover that life for even the ordinary person in Taiwan is a great deal better off than any ordinary person in mainland China, and that society is freer and better ordered there, and people are overall significantly wealthier with effective governnment social support programs that don't exist in China. By this stark contrast of their own situation in China with Taiwan, the students and critical thinkers wake up to the corruption, inepitude, waste of resources and stark dystopian poverty which is most of mainland CCP China now, and prefigures the oppression there. Even Hong Kong now. This makes Taiwan look good and (mainly) Chinese (the native Taiwanese, a Pacific islander people, also get benefits and inclusions in democratic Taiwan). Why attack it then? Also, why historically shouldn't Taiwan rule China now? It's a 70 year unresolved issue from the Chinese Civil War, which the Communists won at the time, while the KMT nationalists retreated to Taiwan. Who will ultimately rule China? One now hopes it will eventually be Taiwan. That's what the CCP really fears.
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These older children and adolescents shouldn't be so pressured all the time. Pressuring children this way is counterproductive. I remember cying and having a tantrum at 16 over calculus, that my non-Asian mother pressured me to do, but i can only remember happening once and i later did Physics at university.
This actually is counterproductive. Sure, kids should do their homework, but their waking lives should not be mainly consumed by that. Healthy and socially smart adolecents have a mix of schoolwork, sports and other productive activities that are not necessarily competitive with some social time. Happy adolescents are prodictive adolecents, the opposite not productive and traumatised. Guess what, university does not produce careers, the individual does that, not the system.
China does not teach kids to be smart, but to be robotic-like ciphers. This does not lead to any creative spark or advancement in society. The creative people in China are sidelined and rampant copyism from more creative cultures work is the norm in China (such as stealing from the West). This starts in schools unfortunately. Note, the West is no paradise and has many social issues too, but the 3-3-16 are so incompetant and tyrannical that they make China backwards.
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This sort of thing is never well explained, but Assad was a mass murderer and genocidist (mainly towards fellow Syrians). His Crimes Against Humanity are innumerable. The single-party state he was head of was the infamous Baathist party; an Arab version of Fascism (secular but ruthless and genocidal in it's misruling methods). Saddam Hussian was a fellow overthrown dictator, as the Baathist party orginated in Syria in the 1960s and Saddam Hussian was also Baathist.
In the thirteen year Syrian Civil War, where Assad was staunchly supported by China and Russia, up to 850,000 people have died in fighting, war crimes committed by the Assad regime and in deadly chemical weapons attacks upon it's own fellow Syrians, a particularly henious crime that Saddam Hussian also perpetrated against the Kurds in the 1980s.
By supporting these criminal regimes both China and Russia are besmirched by these crimes as well. Yes, past US governments also supported evil dictatorships, such as Augustus Pinochet's Chile in the 1970s (partly work of Henry Kissinger), and the overthrow of Sukarno in the Republic of Indonesia to be replaced by the homicidal Suharto regime in the 1960s, who mass murdered more than 500,000 people suspected of being Communist sympathizers.
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The CCP ups the anti to the point of war. This can be interpreted as a point of weakness as much as that of strength by the CCP. A more prudent strategy is to withold forces to a sudden eruption and overwhelming force and hence victory. Something that Germany did to France in 1940. However, the propaganda coming out of China probably doesn't come to this concept, neither does the tactics of the PLA.
The slow upping the anti does give warning to countries like Taiwan to arm itself and to treat threats from China more and more seriously. Further giving time to strengthen interested allies of Taiwan, particularly Japan, and drawing an allied coalition against the CCP; some with the most powerful countries on Earth. A constructive dialogue can't make headway under such conditions between the CCP and the ROC. The CCPs talk reminds me of the propaganda coming out of Nazi Germany.
Why not invade Taiwan now by the PLA? Firstly, weather and tides provide only two windows of opportunity per year in this part of the world. Secondly, attacking an island state is much more difficult to achieve than attacking across a land border. The CCP cannot afford politically to lose an armed contest between itself and the ROC. Losing that war will also lose complete legitimacy by the CCP over China, collapsing CCP authoritarian rule. Hence, The PLA is now stronger militarily, but not strong enough to overwhelm Taiwan main island, and will instead gradually up the anti, but provides time for democracies to rearm.
Taking Taiwan through political intrigue by the CCP will be catastrophic to the life, freedoms and economy of Taiwan. Wishful thinking the other way is not viable nor practical.
At what point does war breaks out? When a military incident occurs which the CCP cannot back down. Likewise with the government of the day of Taiwan. The Taiwanese don't want war but the CCP does. War is a political act; what will give way? Justice and freedom versus totalitarian hegemony?
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Foxconn (trading as Hon Hai technology group in Taiwan) is a Taiwanese electronics manufacturing corporation. I am not an expert in the field, but i think that it is not the same as a Fab or semiconductor or chip manufacturer corporation; this would be a company like TSMC (also a Taiwanese corporation). It is a massive company; the world's largest manufacturer of contract electronics. This itself is indicative of the way as a country alone, Taiwan dominates electronics (along with Japan and South Korea) and why the CCP wants it so badly (other to extinguish the possibility of democracy and rule of law ever occuring in mainland China), and why Taiwan is so geopolitically important, not just to China but the world in general, and also why it might be economically worth the fearsome cost of fighting a world war to defend it from totalitarian tyranny. Foxconn primarily assembles electronics finished parts from components. Like mobile phones. It may make components, like the case or chassis of the phone, in the factory from raw or semi-raw materials but the electronics chip sets and screens are made elsewhere and delivered to Foxconn for assembly. In the automobile world, this would be like a company like Toyota manufacturing the finished vehicles in the manufacturing plant. However, most of the parts are already fabricated, like the engine and transmission, which is assembled to the body or chassis of the automobile,
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