Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "Warning! This Is the Real Attack Plan On Taiwan: 72 Chinese Aircraft and Ships Surround It Now" video.

  1. Because Taiwan is an island, naval and air superior over it must be maintained with intensity, continually for over 60 days by the PLA for any amphibious invasion over it to succeed. Significant lapses in this intensity, due to logistics bottlenecks, enemy counter-offensives or mistakes and false intelligence by the PLA hands time and preparation to the Taiwanese and the allies of Taiwan (primarily the US and Japan). I doubt this is sustained level of intensity is achievable by the PLA for several reasons; 1. Lack of leadership and a comprehensive strategic plan. While this plan is probably still secret by the PLA, the leadership conflict issues are severe, 2. Logistics issues. The PLA has not fought a sustained military conflict for nearly 50 years. They have little experience in maintaining supply lines to battlefields, particularly made worse by a hostile sea barrier, 3. Comprehensive tactical plans of engagement. The PLA has no real plan to engage the Taiwanese air and sea forces effectively long-term, let alone against a major superpower (US) once it becomes actively engaged in the defence of Taiwan. This is in stark contract to Showa Japan in 1940-42, which at least had a partially effective naval and island hopping plan, 4. Political conversion against Taiwanese democracy. Ironically, this is the best chance the CCP has in taking over Taiwan, seeing that both countries share the same language. But because of bellicose territorial aggression by the PLA and Wolf Warrior diplomacy by the CCP, which psychologically tried fear rather than persuasion, this also is a failure.
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