Comments by "Winston Smith" (@kryts27) on "Geopolitics of the South China Sea" video.

  1. Too easy to change the status quo politically for a potential military showdown. The US just has to recognize the government of Taiwan and include it in it's diplomatic exchanges. China, or more accurately, the bully with a more sensitive ego than a spoiled child, then threatens Taiwan to the point where it militarily attacks it. This plays into the US hands as it quite swiftly moves to defend Taiwan and simultaneously neutralize or destroy the reef fortresses that flank it to the south. This is not a good thing for the CCP, it's just lost the military ace of spades in the South China Sea and any chance of building a hegemony over it, which obviously would neutralize Taiwan in time and force the trading nations of the world to kowtow to China if they wanted to move ships through this space, which is the CCP's ultimate end game here. Rightfully, as u say, the preeminent trading nation with close ties to Taiwan, Japan views this emerging strategic situation in the South China Sea with veiled hostility, and other important countries like India are cementing their opposition to China. I disagree with your analysis; China or more accurately the CCP executive, has less and less time to make its mark here, in a tense strategic showdown of its own making. It's tried making fixed aircraft carriers (called fortified islands) on the cheap, which underlines its strategic thinking as traditional land power (not a naval power). Fortified Island chains were a strategy that Japan attempted in the Pacific War primarily to exclude the United Stares, e.g. Rabaul and Truk lagoon, that failed spectacularly military and strategically during a naval blockade scenario. The end result of a primarily naval war in this region is that China's ports are militarily naval and air blockaded by a coalition of countries lead by United States. Did the CCP want this as it treads its Machiavellian tightrope?
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  2. You can't move islands :-)
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