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The Zero Line
Wendover Productions
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Comments by "The Zero Line" (@The_ZeroLine) on "The Failed Logistics of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine" video.
Wow, this is a 100x better breakdown of the big progression, big picture and many of the details of the first week or so of the invasion than anything I’ve seen and I’ve watched and reads dozens and dozens of hours from both traditional and non-traditional media.
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It wasn’t suddenly. At request of China, Russia waited until the Olympics were over to invade. They began literally within an hour of the closing ceremonies. So, China is an active partner in this in both knowing, endorsing it domestically within China and helping them circumnavigate sanctions. Putin’s biography has become #2 bestseller in China since the war began and posting about their hopes that female refugees between 10-25 will be brought to them. However, most Chinese in Ukraine have called those out for the cowardly keyboard warriors they are.
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Their plan was doomed to fail if Ukraine didn’t surrender within 72 hours. It’s zero surprise Russia can now only exert force by air w/a 70% conscript army and when u consider its army’s design: Conscripted Soldiers (Serve 1 Year) -paid less than $25 a month (way less since ruble collapse) -receive 3-4 months of basic training -serve for only a year, during which they are often victimized by their own officers, who often violently haze young recruits -Many receive MREs that expired years ago and insufficient ammunition Contracted Soldiers (3-Year Service) -Paid $1,100 per month -Receive roughly 3x more training -enjoy many opportunities for corruption including siphoning off conscript pay -Are given better equipment Russian Supply Lines Were Designed to Fail: The corrosive effects of the divide between conscript and contract soldier are multiplied by the army’s design, especially in Logistics & Transport (the most important aspect of armed conflict without doubt). The most critical logistics units (fuel, ammo & food shipments) are heavily staffed by poorly trained conscripts. Incompetency and low morale in these critical units has a snowball effect, crippling front-line units. Most of the tanks, AVs, etc. destroyed were already abandoned after both or either getting lost and running out of fuel.
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@NoobGamer-sc9lt How can you doubt they will find refuge now? I did initially, but Poland immediately committed to allowing an unlimited number to come in and the way the west galvanized so quickly to support Ukraine/oppose Russia not only at the gov level committing to lethal aid, sanctions, etc., but in the private sector and of course at a societal level (excluding the CCP’s firewalled/brainwashed populace), has shocked me (in a good way) in is speed and ferocity. Never have countries bordering a refugee crisis opened so readily to refugees before. Yes, so far, the rest of Western Europe haven’t formalized as generous terms as Poland yet, but are preparing to shoulder their share. I doubt any will do it on the scale of Poland though. If Germany were smart, they would accept many as they’d be a better source of educated labor and more able to smoothly integrate into German society than the ME/NA refugees they accepted.
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@mattpotter8725 I watch zero TV news. I get my information from a vast swath of sources. And, yes some of the written sources include US newspapers (mainly the WaPo), but they also include foreign newspapers (eg Finland seems to cover issues surrounding Russia and China really well) + videos and articles from academics who I trust because they predicted this exact outcome more 20 years and especially after the 2008 Bucharest Summit. I also try to watch as much stuff from Ukrainians on the ground and speak with Ukrainians both in and out of the country to get their take. And so on.
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@NoobGamer-sc9lt Ironically, the academic I was specifically referencing above IS Mearsheimer who’ve of I’ve been reading/watching for years. More than that, I’ve seen him in person. I was a poli sci and history double major at UCLA (graduating in 2005), but I grew up in Chicago and went to public lectures of his (during and after graduating) at the University of Chicago where he is tenured. So, it’s ironic you and @ Matt Potter just assumed I was some clueless, brainwashed American. Remember though, guys like Mearsheimer aren’t versed on the military side of things let alone writing anything about the subject covered here. So, he is a totally irrelevant to this specific topic.
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