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The Zero Line
Anders Puck Nielsen
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Comments by "The Zero Line" (@The_ZeroLine) on "Anders Puck Nielsen" channel.
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It always amuses me when US tax dollars comes up as an issue when anyone who has studied military aid to Ukraine is aware that not only has it not cost us a dime, but it’s actually profiting us + enabled critical progress and reform to our own arms industry + military procurement philosophy (we’re finally realizing OST tech can perform better than ridiculously overpriced platforms like Switchblade in many cases, using companies like Anduril to substitute for things like JASSM and Hellfire missiles for a tiny of fraction of the price).
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Rostov-on-drone is my favorite Russian oblast. Thanks to drones, Russia is exporting most of its oil via smoke rather than pipeline now.
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This move gains 🇺🇦 so much: 1. Beyond capturing the station that controls gas flow into Europe, Kursk and the KNPP is critical to war efforts as it makes 95% of Russia’s steel and other critical items. It gives them leverage to get Russia out of other areas like the ZNPP if Ukraine captures the Kursk NPP. 2. US restrictions made Putin believe border defenses were unnecessary /he could commit everything in 🇺🇦. No longer. 3. It changes the entire media narrative which was this creeping advance that had lowered domestic morale and created a Russian fed narrative in international media that Ukraine has no hope, more support is a waste and they just to come to the table. 4. It shows how much Western self-deterrence via unfair restrictions on where and what Ukraine can hit has not only hurt their war efforts, but innocent civilians too. 5. It also puts the US and Germany into an awkward position. It makes their policies look silly and ineffective. And it should give Ukraine some leverage that if they want Ukraine to withdraw from Russia, they need to be given something in return that will improve their chances when just fighting from within their own borders. 6. As the video showing one Russian in Kursk saying “I don’t care who flag I live under as long as they actually protect me,” it makes Putin look weak, makes some realize Putin doesn’t care about them and this entire situation is his fault.
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BTW, your interview on John Fink’s Silicon Curtain should be required viewing for political leaders / advisors + military decision makers.
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Some context on Shuster’s Time hit piece: he gloated on Twitter about using rubles in Crimea in 2015 + past article titles include “Ukrainians Want Russia to Invade,” “No, Russia Will Not Interfere in Ukraine,” & “Nazis Have Hijacked Ukraine’s Liberal Uprising,” Anyone noticing a theme? It’s amazing Time let a man openly hostile to Ukraine author this story. Finally, his anonymous “sources” included Arestovych whose ambition is to become president. A guy now living in Europe after becoming unpopular when he argued Ukraine should not do away with a Russian centric culture and blamed an AD mssile for civilian deaths after it hit a Russian missile that then fell to the ground in a residential area.
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One dilemma Russia has faced is that they want to suppress information from getting back from the front and their men’s sloppy comms security, but they also need them for men to fly drones and see their feeds.
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The only situation that’ll work = a frozen conflict in which VP can keep his army in the field. He can’t allow 500k+ bitter troops w/PTSD, addictions & weapons access returning, which’ll also crash the economy.
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Having it ended with a truce mediated by President 🥔 of all people leaves me feeling like I watched an entire thriller season and then the finale was replaced with an episode of Sponge Bob.
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Because Russia doesn’t have sensor suites that can detect them. Also, 🇺🇦 engages tactics like attacking the secure harbors by air to push 🇷🇺 ships out to sea w/the drones waiting.
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@ That’s basically what we’ve been doing. There are also massive financial interests we’d be risking by allowing Russia to run roughshod over Ukraine, including the fact that they’d control so much of the world’s food supply (and already control nearly 100% of fertilizer) that they’d be able unleash famine and trigger refugee crises if we didn’t play ball.
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Academic competition is a very charitable way of saying these guys are letting their egos get in the way of honest reporting. Unless, it played a major role in preventing them from starting earlier toward the south, it clearly was worth it. Ukraine is continuing to work on an attritional model because of the lack of de-mining equipment like MICLICS, aircraft, etc.
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The mobilization has never stopped. Russia is mobilizing at the full capacity they’re able to equip and minimally prepare their soldiers. A mobilization would likely only create political risks and no more capacity.
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@ Not even that. It’s .002% of GDP and about .4% of its military budget if you take the numbers on face value, but those numbers ignore the fact that we assign values to stuff like DPICM, HMWVVs, MRAPs, which we were spending billions on to scrap. So, instead of paying all that money to get rid of something, we say “oh, this is worth $840m” and then hundreds of armored vehicles that were retiring or being retired.
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P’s in a tough fix. Not only can’t he risk the conscripts coming home, he can’t afford to continue paying them yet he also can’t afford the sudden economic crash ending the war will cause and as recents events have shown they’re only capable, at best, of maintaining the current lines.
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The fact that other journalists proposed absolutely non-constructive question is zero surprise. The entire Western media has been played like a fiddle this entire war. Russia is expert at using a system that operates on norms and the assumption of good faith actors that has been thrown out the window in the new world of “alternative facts” and the discovery you can simply lie about everything and it works all the time.
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@Memovox The US inspector general has not found a single incident of corruption despite the GOP salivating for any corruption to be found. Once Ukraine’s pro-Russian element left at the beginning of the war, corruption levels went down to Western levels. What corruption can you point to? Overpaying for eggs and some Ukrainians paying their way out of serving? Wow-wee!
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“Taking territory” is too general a description and should be qualified by how absolutely negligible the scale of newly captured territory is.
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War is going well. US politics less so. Cutting off aid isn’t even my worst fear. It’s “him” withdrawing from NATO and, for no good reason, saying the US won’t take action if Russia uses tactical nukes in Ukraine. Anyway, Russia’s dire manpower and armored vehicle shortage (IFV, APC and MBT) is really going to handicap Russia and already has begun to. I am also worried he’ll prevent PATRIOT systems that Israel is likely to provide Ukraine as they need to go to the US first and by the time they arrive, have some minor reconditioning done, it’s like he would be in office. Obviously, he could also take the step of forbidding European allies from even transferring interceptors. Not that they would have many to spare.
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He’s a far higher class of expert than most TV news usually have. DR, though, is one of the best mainstream news outlets though.
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That’s an interesting parallel. I’d say you were handicapped more by being given the ability to engage the total warfare doctrine and Ukraine is being restricted from both total warfare and enough systems. That’s what left our men and women (99% men) in Vietnam high and dry.
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I find it frustrating that being objective is considered pro-Ukrainian, but I agree.
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I’ll also add when we see footage it is clear there is no coherent plan in place for defending their ship. It’s mass chaos without sailors sticking to fixed positions and we’ve even seen captains coming to a dead stop in the water out of choice and not damage.
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@annarock8966 Cool story, bro.
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@paullangford8179 Exactly. And that’s just one small component of why the aid figures are amortized. People are also failing to factor in issues like the fact deterrence is always cheaper than war. If we’d let Russia just invade Ukraine with no response, imagine how much money we’d lose if China invaded Taiwan regardless of whether we went to war to stop or didn’t. An invasion of Taiwan would cost the global economy trillions. Or the fact that enabling Ukraine to attrit Russia’s military for pennies on the dollar saves us billions we would have spent on military assets just focused on contingencies for the remote possibility of Russian military confrontations.
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Great detail. Thank you. Where did you see that?
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@mitchyoung93 Oh, wow, tell me you knowing about geopolitics without yada yada yada and tell me about all these “opportunity costs” lost due to aid to Ukraine and I’ll give you a list 10x longer of opportunity costs lost due to not providing Ukraine aid as well as 100 factors from commodity prices that would have been negatively effected for us to preferential market access we get from providing security to our allies.
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@Memovox It’s not name calling when it’s true. You’re either a bot or grossly misinformed. In the meanwhile, please cite this all widespread corruption.
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@davidc1878 Your point? That’s what happens when you don’t equitably tax the tiny portion of tax “payers” who hold more wealth than 90% of Americans combined + our middle class tax base goes extinct. Moreover, even if we accepted the face value of the aid, it’s .002% of GDP. It’s not even a rounding error. Furthermore, we give billions of military aid to Pakistan, Egypt, etc. annually and I don’t hear Trump talking about that. Or the fact that the largest part of our deficit has been generated under GOP presidents and literally every economic KPI is cumulatively inferior under GOP admins since 1953.
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Ukraine has quietly captured 36 oil platforms in the Black Sea and driven the 🇷🇺 Navy away from Crimea. More importantly, 🇺🇦 is just miles away from Tokmak, which if captured, will fully collapse 🇷🇺’s ability to supply their southern forces, which is 75% of the war.
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Undermining Western dominance and the rules based order seems like a pretty solid axis of shared interest to me even if they want that for different ends.
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Politicians were angry that their own citizens were the ones clamoring for weapons transfers and not them for once.
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@cheztaylor8 How is it coming from the “taxpayer’s pocket” when those systems were paid for decades ago and were costing us billions to scrap? There are only a small amount of systems, which are coming of new spending budgets. And that amount is easily covered by the corporate tax revenue generated by sales of new equipment to foreign militaries and our military own alone that’s been spurred by seeing the effectiveness of our arms versus the crap made by Russia and China. Not to mention that you act like it’d be free to tax payers if we didn’t do anything and then encouraged China to invade Taiwan or allow Russia a stranglehold on a major part of the world’s grain supply. You’re either being disingenuous or haven’t considered all the knock on effects.
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@ God are you naive. First of all, I’m not talking about just the EU or simply preferential treatment other countries wouldn’t get though yes we certainly do. Second of all, why do you think so many countries purchase exclusively US arms? Third of all, I can’t help you if you don’t understand our security guarantees (formal or implied) don’t come with economic benefits and special treatment. You think we’re still allowed bases in Japan because they think we’re just swell? Do you know how much more it would cost to project power into the pan-pacific without those bases?
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@ Dude, I can’t even w/dilettantes like you. You haven’t even bothered to look up how much we’ve spent on scrapping DPICM (and how far we still had to go) and haven’t even found the costs so far for scrapping HMMWVs. And do you seriously think because we still use HMMWVs that means we’re not scrapping thousands of them? I can’t spend all day educating you.
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That is short. Even if you made it clear you’d welcome more, it shows how far society has fallen in its standards that anybody could consider this long.
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The NYT called this modestly sized new front, still in its infancy, “a stunning new offensive” + said “selling the war and victory is getting increasingly easy” in 🇷🇺. I want what they’re smoking or if their “source” giggles while feeding them this nonsense.
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Simply put: well with major caveats. Many of which depend on foreign political imperatives. The Western media though, has continued to show a massive level of cluelessness or big picture understanding.
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Hell, France, despite being the EU’s second biggest economy, has given €300m less than Lithuania in arms (which is 64x smaller) and haven’t even reached half-a-billion while Germany is at 17.1b or so so far. France is pathetic.
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@Zuluknob How do they have more dead? Cause they keep attacking with soldiers that have no training, artillery support, antiquated weapons, horrible ISR, no battlefield medics, no stabilization points. Basically, how much time you got?
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@anderspuck He was referring to Vlad and his own video content.
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I’ve never been worried about the Ukrainian leaders. It’s solely the “allies” I’m worried about. With the new house speaker + Slovakia’s new leader adding a 2nd opposition in the EU w/most of the non-Baltic EU countries already seeming to want any excuse not to provide anything, I am feeling we’re really edging to a precarious point politically. If Biden can get a funding bill through things should be fine. If not, beyond the US providing more than the entire EU combined, it will be disastrous as the EU will likely use it as an excuse to pull back.
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Kind of important to note that this was a lancet, not a surveillance drone. And I’m guessing they ran across it by coincidence.
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@kashmirha I didn’t even know he was Russian when I made those points. But that’s even more damning and goes toward explaining why he was gloating about the rubles. It’s amazing the media hasn’t called him out.
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@XL0G Thanks. That is true, but while I may well be wrong, I simply do not trust him to not lie about his sources based on what he’s already displayed in terms of journalistic ethics and personal bias. While, I think he’d avoid major lies he could be caught out on, especially if Time editors are doing their due diligence. However, a status “mix up” of a cited source is the sort of seemingly small, but nefarious “error” that wouldn’t raise major alarm bells if caught and a “correction” was issued. If he’ll lie or at best misrepresent the facts on entire stories to fit a narrative, he’d twist (I.E., lie) a detail as small as this without second thought.
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Uninteresting?! We learned Poland started WWII. 😂 BTW, don’t call it X. You’re just rewarding another megalomaniac.
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Meanwhile, 🇺🇦’s economy has exceeded all growth projections + its budgetary management met or exceeded all targets set when the ECB issued it loans.
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Ironically, one reason 🇺🇦 victory is so important = it’ll become the affordable armory of Europe afterward. They have tons of experience, expertise and more critically, economic labor. They will basically become Europe’s South Korea.
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@kogorun Russophilia?! I didn’t even talk about Russia in my post. I talked about a biased author’s agenda. So, yeah, you’ve instantly discredited yourself. And, actually my day job includes analyzing Sino and Eastern European geopolitics as well as the domestic affairs of these states. I was also double majored in Russian history major and political science at UCLA (not that that is especially applicable or makes one qualified in isolation).
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@Zuluknob Oryx undercounts. They literally only list losses they can visually. LMAO. Try harder.
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Shows how little people know that many are saying both Wagner will be attacking Poland or toppling Lukashenko. We need to bring back more Darwinian factors.
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