Comments by "The Zero Line" (@The_ZeroLine) on "Jake Broe"
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No one’s been talking about this, but I am nearly certain 🇺🇦’s main offensive will be directly south of Kherson city in the desert + steppe whose terrain is actually better for tanks/armor when wet. There are no natural barriers, no towns or villages from which to form defensive positions, no natural choke points, etc. And forming dynamic, mobile defensive maneuvers is hard for a well trained army. So, basically impossible for the RFAF. Ukraine can do an absolute thunder run a la 🇺🇸 in Iraq.
They’ve been given specialized pontoon bridges from US and other allies. There is also a route which doesn’t require going over the Dnipro as well. Penetrating this deep into Kherson also puts every naval base within easy range of Ukrainian weapons. So, Russia would be forced to move their ships out of Crimea, which would allow Ukraine to resume full scale export of grain.
I’ve written an analysis of this option, which I’ve held back since it didn’t seem Russia was even considering this option seriously. Now it’s getting too late for them to really to do anything to majorly adjust to this. So, I’ll likely put it up this week.
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It’s game over for Russia if 🇺🇦 can setup a pontoon bridge to get armor over the Dnipro as there’s no way to defend southern Kherson’s interior, which is all desert steppe w/no terrain features that can be used as defensive positions let alone points at which an enemy can be funneled into a choke point AND they’ll also be able to attack the Surovikin line from the rear or or bypass them all together rendering it useless.
So, it’s just a thunder run all the way to the edge of Crimea. Even better, the steppe’s surface is all sandstone which only gets FIRMER when wet, making it a perfect natural highway for armored vehicles.
Yes, it’s a big if, but remember it is being made feasible by: a) Ukraine crippling Russia’s lines of communications (you can’t defend if you don’t have munitions), b) almost zero defense in depth across the river, c) Russia won’t have the luxury of just sitting back and taking non-stop artillery shots as HIMARS outranges ALL Russian artillery + Ukraine will have GLSDB by Oct., which is going to be as nearly as big of a game changer as when Ukraine first got HIMARS and d) Russian troops in Kherson are purely mobiks in many areas, which is why Russia is trying to now rotate in experienced soldiers and rotation is a huge vulnerability itself and it will just weaken the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut fronts anyway.
I think the beginning of the Thunder Run to the Crimean border will start in the fall.
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Not counting Sweden’s Archers and CV90s, NATO countries have done huge work on the transfer of significant volumes of armored vehicles and ammunition: in total, since the beginning of 2023, it has been announced that the AFU will receive 890 units of infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and BATs (this equipment will be enough to staff ~ 29 mechanized battalions), more than 1.5 million units of ammunition, more than 80 self-propelled guns and howitzers, as well as means of delivering deep operational strikes (GLSDB is a type of ammunition for the HIMARS system, which is built around a planning bomb).
the Ukrainian armed forces have begun to form 3 army corps based on both strategic reserve brigades and personnel brigades that actively took part in hostilities, as well as units that are currently in the process of being formed. We are talking about creating a "shock fist" of 75 thousand military personnel, which is designed to do what was previously not possible to implement during the Kharkov-Izyum operation - to mass the forces and conduct a continuous high-intensity offensive, without being distracted by losses or rotations.
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I love the man, but let’s not go crazy here. He stood up well under the IMMENSE pressure of speaking to all of congress and on national TV in a second language. So, purely from a rhetorical POV, it was never going to be a speech to compare with Lincoln, Churchill, MLK, JFK, etc. I think he wisely struck to a moderate. I think he missed some opportunities in his speech and during his stay, I think he made a couple minor optics mistakes. But, yeah, overall he did a really good job.
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Anti-Israeli propaganda had been ramping on Russian state TV in the run up to the incident, but the pogrom was an unintended consequence for the Kremlin. All war long 🇷🇺’s propaganda has been pushing citizens to become furious over a different traitor, a different Western country or institution, etc. The Jews were just supposed to be another enemy of the week. But they’re weren’t expecting viewers to do anything about it.
That’s because the Kremlin is living a parallel existence where life has gone on as normal w/no friends or family lost. Yet Dagestan has lost so many sons to the war, they’re an open nerve: exhausted, scared and enraged and looking to vent. When they’re told who the enemy is, that was a release valve the Kremlin didn’t think about.
Yet the masterminds are so detached they just think “what’s wrongwith you? The jews are only the enemy of the week!” This is not surprising as paradoxically, Russian leaders always assume their TV propaganda will work yet, at the same time, are constantly shocked by how easily the people are brainwashed by the TV.
No doubt, this time they were thinking: “Hey, we’re at war to stop the Nazis, remember?”
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This new load of weapons should easily push Ukraine over the top. People are just focusing on the Bradleys (and Marders + AMX from 🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷), but there is SO MUCH MORE in the list. Dozens more self-propelled howitzers, 100,000+ more shells, including thousands of precisions rounds which are each equivalent in value to about 25 dumb rounds, hundreds more M113s, HMMWVs, MRAPS, etc., etc. The M2 Bradley, just like a fighter jet, can destroy enemy tanks at BVR before the enemy even knows you’re there.
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@irishcanuck9489 Biden isn’t stupid. He’s senile. And, while he makes a mess of interviews and speeches, his admin’s actual results are very strong: economy is thriving w/moderate inflation being the only weakness in the economy, he’s passed more bills than Trump’s term and Obama’s last term did combined, including wide sweeping critical infrastructure projects that we’ve been trying to get done for 20 years, lower prescription costs for families, etc. Unemployment is at a 50-year low. Domestic manufacturing is really starting to take off. This was quickly done too before the GOP claimed the speakership and went into we won’t pass anything no matter how good for America it is if Trump doesn’t endorse it or a single democrat let alone Biden was involved in drafting it.
So, yeah, all this “the sky is falling” is just noise produced by social media, the GOP and their media empire. It’s also due to the fact that because Biden has really started losing the plot, he hasn’t even bothered to remind Americans about what he’s passed, what was in it, etc.
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Some additional interesting facts on the deep
rot:
*Germany blocked NATO’s ascension to NATO in 2008, blocked a meaningful EU sanctions package on Russia in 2014 and the SPD has always viewed the Baltic states as not deserving of independence and an annoying impediment to its work with Russia.
*News this month that the number of German soldiers declaring themselves conscientious objectors rose fivefold in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine created little more than a ripple in Germany. For many Germans it’s perfectly natural for members of the Bundeswehr, the army, to renege on the pledge they made to defend their country; if Germans themselves. don’t want to fight, why should their troops?
Indeed, in Germany, a soldier isn’t a soldier but a “citizen in uniform.” It’s an apposite euphemism for a populace that has lived comfortably under the U.S. security umbrella for more than seven decades and goes a long way toward explaining how Germany became NATO’s problem child since the war in Ukraine began, delaying and frustrating the Western effort to get Ukraine the weaponry it needs to defend itself against an unprovoked Russian onslaught.
*In the opening hours of the war, Germany’s finance minister laughed at the Ukrainian ambassador’s request for aid because ‘sending aid would be a waste of because your country will be done in hours.’
*Germany is STILL talking (as in this week) about their hope to restore normal relations and energy imports w/Russia once the war is “resolved.”
*Germany’s allies, including Washington, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working.
Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. Gerhard Schroder was literally Scholz’s mentor and Putin is the god father to one of his children, he was on the gazprom board, STILL won’t condemn Putin. You don’t get more transparently corrupt.
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@kx4532 Germany’s allies, including Washington, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working.
Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. While it hangs back from supporting Ukraine in a fight to defend its democracy from invasion by a tyrant, it has no qualms about selling to authoritarian regimes, like those in the Middle East, where it does brisk business selling weapons to countries such as Egypt and Qatar.
Despite everything that’s happened over the past year, Berlin is still holding out hope that Ukraine can somehow patch things up with Russia so that Germany can resume business as usual and switch the gas back on. Even if Germany ends up sending tanks to Ukraine — as many now anticipate — it will deliver as few as it can get away with and only after exhausting every possible option to delay.
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Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm: Their allies, including Washington, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working.
Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. While it hangs back from supporting Ukraine in a fight to defend its democracy from invasion by a tyrant, it has no qualms about selling to authoritarian regimes, like those in the Middle East, where it does brisk business selling weapons to countries such as Egypt and Qatar.
Despite everything that’s happened over the past year, Berlin is still holding out hope that Ukraine can somehow patch things up with Russia so that Germany can resume business as usual and switch the gas back on. Even if Germany ends up sending tanks to Ukraine — as many now anticipate — it will deliver as few as it can get away with and only after exhausting every possible option to delay.
Much attention in recent years has focused on Nord Stream 2, the ill-fated Russo-German natural gas project. Yet tensions between the U.S. and Germany over the latter’s entanglement with Russian energy interests date back to the late 1950s, when it first began supplying the Soviet Union with large-diameter piping.
Throughout the Cold War, Germany’s involvement with NATO was driven by a strategy to take advantage of the protection the alliance afforded, delivering no more than the absolute minimum, while also expanding commercial relations with the Soviets.
In 1955, the weekly Die Zeit described what it called the “fireside fantasy of West German industry” to normalize trade relations with the Soviet Union. Within years, that dream became a reality, driven in large measure by Chancellor Willy Brandt’s détente policies, known as Ostpolitik.
That’s one reason the Germans so feared U.S. President Ronald Reagan and his hard line against the Soviets. Far from welcoming his “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall” demand, both the German public and industry were terrified by it, worried that Reagan would upset the apple cart and destroy their business in the east.
By the time the Berlin Wall fell a couple of years later, West German exports to the Soviet Union had reached nearly 12 billion deutsche mark, a record.
That’s why Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm.
Germany’s dithering over aid to Ukraine is a logical extension of a strategy that has served its economy well from the Cold War to the decision to block Ukraine’s NATO accession in 2008 to Nord Stream.
Just last week, as the Russians were raining terror on Dnipro, the minister president of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, called for the repair of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which was blown up by unknown saboteurs last year, so that Germany “keeps the option” to purchase Russian gas after war ends.
The money Germany has saved on defense has enabled it to finance one of the world’s most generous welfare states. When Germany was under pressure from allies a few years ago to finally meet NATO’s 2 percent of GDP spending target, then-Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel called the goal “absurd.” And from a German perspective, he was right; why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?
Of course, the Germans have had a lot of help milking, especially from the U.S.
American presidents have been chastising Germany over its lackluster contribution to the Western alliance going as far back as Dwight D. Eisenhower, only to do nothing about it.
The exception that proves the rule is Donald Trump, whose plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Germany was thwarted by his election loss.
Joe Biden, eager to reverse the diplomatic damage inflicted during the Trump years, reversed course and has gone out of his way to show his appreciation for all things German.
Biden’s decision to court the Germans instead of castigating them for failing to meet their commitments taught Berlin that it merely needs to wait out crises in the transatlantic relationship and the problems will fix themselves. Under pressure from Trump to buy American liquefied natural gas, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed in 2018 to support the construction of the necessary infrastructure. After Trump, those plans were put on ice, only to revive them amid the current energy crisis.
By virtue of its size and geographical position at the center of Europe, Germany will always be important for the U.S., if not as a true ally, at least as an erstwhile partner and staging ground for the American military.
Who cares that the Bundeswehr has become a punchline or that Germany remains years away from meeting its NATO spending targets?
In Washington’s view, Germany might be a bad ally, but at least it’s America’s bad ally.
And no one understands the benefits of that
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