Comments by "The Zero Line" (@The_ZeroLine) on "Ukraine to Give Up Territory for NATO Membership?" video.
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It’s game over for Russia if 🇺🇦 can setup a pontoon bridge to get armor over the Dnipro as there’s no way to defend southern Kherson’s interior, which is all desert steppe w/no terrain features that can be used as defensive positions let alone points at which an enemy can be funneled into a choke point AND they’ll also be able to attack the Surovikin line from the rear or or bypass them all together rendering it useless.
So, it’s just a thunder run all the way to the edge of Crimea. Even better, the steppe’s surface is all sandstone which only gets FIRMER when wet, making it a perfect natural highway for armored vehicles.
Yes, it’s a big if, but remember it is being made feasible by: a) Ukraine crippling Russia’s lines of communications (you can’t defend if you don’t have munitions), b) almost zero defense in depth across the river, c) Russia won’t have the luxury of just sitting back and taking non-stop artillery shots as HIMARS outranges ALL Russian artillery + Ukraine will have GLSDB by Oct., which is going to be as nearly as big of a game changer as when Ukraine first got HIMARS and d) Russian troops in Kherson are purely mobiks in many areas, which is why Russia is trying to now rotate in experienced soldiers and rotation is a huge vulnerability itself and it will just weaken the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut fronts anyway.
I think the beginning of the Thunder Run to the Crimean border will start in the fall.
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