Youtube comments of The Zero Line (@The_ZeroLine).
-
6600
-
3000
-
2500
-
2200
-
1500
-
1200
-
934
-
925
-
852
-
829
-
810
-
784
-
664
-
633
-
601
-
565
-
518
-
494
-
455
-
445
-
440
-
422
-
417
-
411
-
353
-
345
-
344
-
342
-
338
-
327
-
318
-
316
-
314
-
311
-
303
-
300
-
294
-
291
-
289
-
284
-
270
-
268
-
264
-
263
-
258
-
254
-
242
-
238
-
233
-
Moscow Mike Johnson has more loyalty to Putin than me, an 🇺🇸 citizen, who knows we must win this war for peace. Besides, most of the aid we’ve given 🇺🇦 has been free because the majority of the arms were obsolete, expired (like the ATACMS given), retired, being retired or disposed of at great cost like DPICM. Some examples: MRAPS, ProMaxx, M60 based engineering vehicles, Avenger, HMMWVs, older Bradleys, M113s, etc.
228
-
223
-
223
-
211
-
193
-
177
-
173
-
173
-
171
-
169
-
166
-
166
-
166
-
164
-
160
-
156
-
156
-
154
-
152
-
152
-
152
-
146
-
145
-
145
-
145
-
145
-
145
-
143
-
Once the AFU got Western weapons in numbers, Russia was doomed. After WWII, the Soviet defense industry continued to think in terms of the Second World War: that superior technology was not needed as long as you could field overwhelming number. Meanwhile, realizing the conceptual impasse of competing in a symmetrical arms race, the US decided to create a new generation of weapons, which led to the HIMARS first used in 1991 in Iraq.
American MLRS systems were fundamentally different from their Soviet counterparts even before they began design. For the USSR, MLRS were considered as a means of creating a dense fire shaft. The US designed its offspring as a tool capable of breaking the overwhelming numerical superiority of the artillery of the Soviet bloc with speedy and surgically accurate strikes.
By itself, from the point of view of technology, the M270 at that time did not represent something that would be an order of magnitude superior to its competitors - on the contrary, the impressive results of its combat use were dictated primarily by advanced tactics and an extremely competent concept. The installation did not have a radical superiority in range over Soviet weapons (relatively speaking, 30 km versus 20 km) - its trump card was accuracy, mobility and constant work in conjunction with reconnaissance equipment.
Value of Soldiers
WWII also had a particularly strong influence on militaries’ perception of the value of a person who was both the main driving force of war and the main factor limiting the combat effectiveness of the armed forces as a system. The West and the Soviets arrived at opposite conclusions: the US embarked on combining technology paired with intensive individual training and professionalism to exponentially increase the potential of the modest soldier. The Soviets OTH continued to develop the vicious concepts of the WWI: the soldier was an asset of no value - an insignificant addition to the masses of armored columns and the creeping barrage of tens of thousands of missiles and shells.
A concept the Russians never discarded despite declining birth rates, especially in Russia which has a negative growth rate AND lost most of its biggest population centers after the break up of the USSR. While the world had had an overabundance of youth in the early 20th century, the value of human capital in the armies grew exponentially as population demographics trended much older. As technology became more and more complex, sophisticated and deadly high-precision weapons, replenishing the ranks of the armed forces became exponentially more difficult and expensive. The era of being able to sacrifice million upon million to war was as antiquated as a calvary charge and just as ineffective.
140
-
140
-
138
-
138
-
133
-
130
-
130
-
129
-
129
-
127
-
127
-
126
-
125
-
125
-
124
-
123
-
123
-
117
-
115
-
115
-
114
-
113
-
111
-
111
-
110
-
108
-
108
-
104
-
104
-
104
-
104
-
103
-
103
-
103
-
100
-
98
-
98
-
97
-
96
-
95
-
95
-
95
-
94
-
93
-
91
-
90
-
90
-
89
-
88
-
88
-
87
-
87
-
85
-
84
-
84
-
83
-
83
-
83
-
83
-
83
-
82
-
81
-
81
-
79
-
79
-
79
-
78
-
78
-
78
-
78
-
77
-
76
-
76
-
76
-
76
-
75
-
74
-
74
-
72
-
71
-
71
-
71
-
70
-
70
-
70
-
69
-
69
-
69
-
69
-
68
-
68
-
67
-
67
-
64
-
64
-
63
-
63
-
63
-
63
-
63
-
62
-
61
-
61
-
61
-
60
-
60
-
60
-
60
-
59
-
59
-
59
-
59
-
59
-
58
-
58
-
58
-
58
-
58
-
57
-
57
-
56
-
56
-
55
-
55
-
55
-
55
-
55
-
55
-
54
-
54
-
54
-
54
-
54
-
53
-
53
-
53
-
53
-
52
-
52
-
52
-
50
-
50
-
50
-
50
-
50
-
49
-
49
-
49
-
49
-
48
-
48
-
48
-
48
-
48
-
48
-
47
-
47
-
47
-
47
-
47
-
46
-
46
-
46
-
45
-
45
-
45
-
45
-
45
-
45
-
45
-
44
-
44
-
44
-
44
-
44
-
44
-
44
-
43
-
43
-
43
-
43
-
43
-
43
-
43
-
43
-
42
-
42
-
42
-
42
-
42
-
42
-
42
-
42
-
41
-
41
-
41
-
40
-
40
-
40
-
40
-
40
-
40
-
40
-
40
-
40
-
39
-
39
-
39
-
39
-
39
-
39
-
39
-
39
-
39
-
39
-
38
-
38
-
38
-
38
-
38
-
38
-
38
-
37
-
37
-
37
-
37
-
37
-
36
-
36
-
36
-
36
-
36
-
36
-
36
-
36
-
36
-
36
-
35
-
35
-
35
-
35
-
35
-
35
-
34
-
34
-
34
-
34
-
34
-
34
-
34
-
33
-
33
-
33
-
33
-
33
-
33
-
33
-
32
-
32
-
32
-
31
-
31
-
31
-
31
-
31
-
31
-
31
-
30
-
30
-
30
-
30
-
30
-
30
-
29
-
29
-
29
-
29
-
29
-
29
-
29
-
29
-
29
-
29
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
28
-
27
-
27
-
27
-
27
-
27
-
27
-
27
-
26
-
26
-
26
-
26
-
26
-
26
-
26
-
TAWS alone (the audible “pull up” warning reduced CFIT [controlled flight into terrain] accidents by something like 70%+ overnight. It was mandated in the early ‘70s. And since then SO, SO many systems, including TCAS, RIMCAS, CRM training, startle training, etc. has reduced the chances of dying to more than one-in-a-billion. Now, it takes so many things passing through the “Swiss cheese accident model” for an accident to occur (that is, basically, it requires many mistakes, unlikely events and/or technical malfunctions to all combine to produce an accident).
26
-
26
-
26
-
26
-
26
-
26
-
26
-
26
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
25
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
24
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
23
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
22
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
@kksan You’re not American and my countrymen didn’t pay a single dime. 90% of the weapons we gave we’re retired, being retired or were costing lots of money to dispose of like DPICM. This includes MRAPS, ProMaxx, Avengers, HMMWVs, Patton tank chassis engineering vehicles, old Bradley models in PPS, expired ATACMS, as mentioned DPICM and on and on. And because even our old stuff has performed so well, the US has hundreds of billions in new arms orders. Beyond that, all these weapons were paid for in the 1980s. So, nothing out of our actual budget and there are no refunds. Were you complaining about the billions per year we’ve been giving Egypt, Pakistan, Israel and so on every year?
21
-
21
-
21
-
21
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
20
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
It’s amazing how many intellectually lazy people just say “the US it at fault” as if no other people or powers have any agency. No, while the US has contributed to both stability and instability in Africa + the ME, the 1,400 year old death struggle between Shias and Sunnis, a thousand different tribal rivalries, competing economic and geopolitical agendas and on and on, is the primary mover. Also, Gaddafi never had nukes. He had a primitive enrichment program. He was never close to nukes. So, he never had nukes to give up or was really capable of producing one.
Anyway, how we got to the current predicament of Libya cannot be explained in a mere 20 minutes. For the record, I was not a supporter of Europe, Turkey and America’s intervention in Libya. Gaddafi was a monster, but they unleashed many monsters when they enabled the destruction of the regime. But after that, fighting became boosted by regimes, including Russia, the UAE and Turkey, who had even more cynical interests.
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
19
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
18
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
17
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
16
-
No one’s been talking about this, but I am nearly certain 🇺🇦’s main offensive will be directly south of Kherson city in the desert + steppe whose terrain is actually better for tanks/armor when wet. There are no natural barriers, no towns or villages from which to form defensive positions, no natural choke points, etc. And forming dynamic, mobile defensive maneuvers is hard for a well trained army. So, basically impossible for the RFAF. Ukraine can do an absolute thunder run a la 🇺🇸 in Iraq.
They’ve been given specialized pontoon bridges from US and other allies. There is also a route which doesn’t require going over the Dnipro as well. Penetrating this deep into Kherson also puts every naval base within easy range of Ukrainian weapons. So, Russia would be forced to move their ships out of Crimea, which would allow Ukraine to resume full scale export of grain.
I’ve written an analysis of this option, which I’ve held back since it didn’t seem Russia was even considering this option seriously. Now it’s getting too late for them to really to do anything to majorly adjust to this. So, I’ll likely put it up this week.
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
It’s game over for Russia if 🇺🇦 can setup a pontoon bridge to get armor over the Dnipro as there’s no way to defend southern Kherson’s interior, which is all desert steppe w/no terrain features that can be used as defensive positions let alone points at which an enemy can be funneled into a choke point AND they’ll also be able to attack the Surovikin line from the rear or or bypass them all together rendering it useless.
So, it’s just a thunder run all the way to the edge of Crimea. Even better, the steppe’s surface is all sandstone which only gets FIRMER when wet, making it a perfect natural highway for armored vehicles.
Yes, it’s a big if, but remember it is being made feasible by: a) Ukraine crippling Russia’s lines of communications (you can’t defend if you don’t have munitions), b) almost zero defense in depth across the river, c) Russia won’t have the luxury of just sitting back and taking non-stop artillery shots as HIMARS outranges ALL Russian artillery + Ukraine will have GLSDB by Oct., which is going to be as nearly as big of a game changer as when Ukraine first got HIMARS and d) Russian troops in Kherson are purely mobiks in many areas, which is why Russia is trying to now rotate in experienced soldiers and rotation is a huge vulnerability itself and it will just weaken the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut fronts anyway.
I think the beginning of the Thunder Run to the Crimean border will start in the fall.
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
15
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
14
-
13
-
13
-
🇺🇸 aid to 🇺🇦 has basically been free. 90% of the weapons given we’re retired/nearing it and/or costing more $ to dispose of than to give(DPICM). This includes MRAPS, ProMaxx, Avengers, HMMWVs, Patton tank chassis engineering vehicles, old Bradley models in PPS, expired ATACMS, as mentioned DPICM and on and on. And because even our old stuff has performed so well, the US has hundreds of billions in new arms orders. Beyond that, all these weapons were paid for in the 1980s.
So, nothing comes out of our actual budget. I don’t remember these people complaining about the billions per year we’ve been giving Egypt, Pakistan, Israel and so on every year in military aid.
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
13
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
12
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
11
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
10
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
9
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
@StreetFreak9000 Clearly you know zero about American history let alone Vietnamese history. Aside from the facts that left/right ideology is irrelevant here or that liberal admins began this war, the NV/VC was the product of Vietnamese overthrowing a French colonial government and not a Russian invasion. Moreover, there was a home grown communist movement taking place in Vietnam. If there was a strong home grown democratic movement taking place, we would have had something to work with. Just like us, the Russians couldn’t have installed a sympathetic regime without organic Vietnamese support. More importantly, as we saw in the long term, most of these backwater countries did nothing for the cause of either side. So, while the doctrine of containment wasn’t inherently bad. Containment via fomenting regime change was. In the end, we were even overthrowing democratic regimes that were neutral (it wasn’t enough for the Dulles brothers to be neutral: if you didn’t publicly condemn the USSR, you were evil).
Moreover, there weren’t Soviet boots on the ground. If you wanted a symmetric response, we would have armed and advised the SV. I don’t know why those on the right who think they have a monopoly on patriotism, feel the need to defend every and any war the US ever started or got involved with. It basically makes the assumption that all warfare must have somehow been driven by both conservative values and /or republican admins.
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
Air superiority denotes an ability to operate beyond your own lines, which they don’t have. And the artillery gap is nowhere close to 10 to 1. Yes, maybe in artillery pieces in inventory, but not in deployment or operation. That said, Russian fortifications are only as strong as their logistics, which are fragile, but holding for now. There are hugely vulnerable choke points, which could quickly render their fortifications on a ticking clock to doom. To comprehensively take down their logistics though, Ukraine will require at least ATACMS and/or preferably F-16s too to enable them to get much closer to these critical and vulnerable rail junctures (ALL their logistics are solely dependent on rail, which is why the army’s rail division has 30,000 men working nonstop). In the mean time, attriting reserves, logistical hubs and artillery is what Ukraine should be and is doing. However, that will make this very slow work, unlike the movie many uninformed media and observers want to see where it’s all over in weeks or a few months after one big break through.
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
8
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
7
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
Not counting Sweden’s Archers and CV90s, NATO countries have done huge work on the transfer of significant volumes of armored vehicles and ammunition: in total, since the beginning of 2023, it has been announced that the AFU will receive 890 units of infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and BATs (this equipment will be enough to staff ~ 29 mechanized battalions), more than 1.5 million units of ammunition, more than 80 self-propelled guns and howitzers, as well as means of delivering deep operational strikes (GLSDB is a type of ammunition for the HIMARS system, which is built around a planning bomb).
the Ukrainian armed forces have begun to form 3 army corps based on both strategic reserve brigades and personnel brigades that actively took part in hostilities, as well as units that are currently in the process of being formed. We are talking about creating a "shock fist" of 75 thousand military personnel, which is designed to do what was previously not possible to implement during the Kharkov-Izyum operation - to mass the forces and conduct a continuous high-intensity offensive, without being distracted by losses or rotations.
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
Ah, Russia’s valiant war continues with the aid of the GOP, France’s + Spain’s usual excuses, posturing and, ultimately, lack of interest and last but not least Switzerland’s tidy and oh so neutral vaultures.
“The location was home to newly recruited Ukrainian forces,” Pskov willl say. Translation, a maternity ward where potential future soldiers are born. Finally, the AP, after zero due diligence, will run a story whose headline paraphrases Peskov and makes no mention of the Kremlin’s credibility track record.
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
6
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
@twocansams6335 While not as obvious or egregious, all the govs, western central banks (which are actually private despite popular perception), FED/ECB/IMF, non-gov market makers, etc. Any correspondence between fundamentals and things like the stock market, commodity prices, etc. began to disappear after the French figured out the US was no longer adhering to the Bretton Woods Treaty, sent a warship to pick up their gold and Nixon suspended the gold standard. Since then, year by year, the entire financial system has become a horribly rigged game with commercial paper at the heart of it, which has bankrupted the middle class.
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
And now they’ve got thermite drones clearing tree belts, jet powered drones for deep strikes that move too quickly for jets to be scrambled, light aircraft as heavy payload long distance drones, landmine mapping drones, interceptor drones, etc. And, above all, they’re winning the battle for building and procuring FPVs in massive numbers. Meanwhile, the enemy has basically done none of this and has failed to match the quantity. The ingenuity of individual Ukrainians combined w/private citizens from all over the world donating, quite literally, billions of dollars for drones, is responsible for 95% of this effort.
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
5
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
In the event you ever have time and/or the interest, I’d love to hear a quick overview sometime, for those of us less versed on the matter, of the different models in use, how widespread they, their strength/weaknesses, what, if any, type of situation they’re intended for, etc. I’d say pretty much the same for any weapons. It’s mainly out of curiosity, but also because I’m going over there (non-battlefield work), but I’ll be bringing a lot of stuff with me people are requesting and you never know what type of information will be useful.
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
Interesting, I had only seen on paper, so far, Operation Interflex, Operation Unifier and EUMAM. I had seen that exact quote though. Orbital must not have been mentioned in that though.
I can’t put it all, but here are some notes on what I had found:
Training Partners, Locations & Numbers
EUMAM (EU Military Assistance Mission)
* Budget: 123m Euros
* Training Locations: Poland, Germany & Bulgaria
* Secondary Sites: Estonia (medical training with Norwegian materiel and financial support)
* Instructor Origins: Bulgarian, British & American instructors
* Program: 15,000 [12,000 Ukrainian soldiers to undergo basic training in rotations of 2-3 months] [2,800 Ukrainian military personnel to receive special training across the three countries in a number of disciplines] [NA additional number to receive NA skills training]
Operation Unifier
Trainers
1. Australia: 70 - UK/Operation Interflex
2. Canada: 270+
1. UK/Operation Interflex + Unifier
2. Poland/Operation Unifier
3. Bulgaria
4. Cambodia (sappers)
5. France
6. New Zealand: 149 - UK/Operation Interflex
7. Ireland (sappers)
8. Poland
9. Spain
10. UK
11. US
Germany, Bulgaria (and Poland)
Where & Trained by Who
In Bulgaria/Germany/Poland by US, UK & Bulgaria: 15,000
US Base in Germany (w/British, Canadian & US instructors) and a British base with same instructors)
In/By France: 2,000
In/By Spain: 2,400
In UK: 5,550 Minimum
Poland : 15,000 spread across Bulgaria Germany): 15,00
————/
Operation Unifier / Interflex:
While at least 7,460+ soldiers were trained by Nov. 11, the objective was to hit a minimum of 10,000+. However, soon they will likely begin to start hitting even greater marks because the
program is only starting to really kick into gear now.
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
@jsavak99 Firstly, I literally just discovered this guy. Secondly, there is nothing I detest more than celeb worship culture/all those fans who kiss the ass of popular YouTubers with generic “omg, your videos are so amazing! You’re so charismatic!” Etc type comments. So, your assumption on that point literally could not be more far off. In fact, I think he’s a bit cheesy w/his 007 suits + sunglasses, but that’s not a moral flaw.
Third, he HAD to smile. You think any time you see an ad w/a smiling he or she was was genuinely smiling? No, it was part of the job. And if you’re thinking if he had really cared he wouldn’t have smiled and would’ve quit immediately after he found out, that’s the last thing someone who cares should do as they’re likely to be replaced by someone who doesn’t care. He stayed, tried to affect change, went to the police & was fired as a result.
Finally, you obviously took no trouble to research the behavioral psychology I mentioned, which makes you a lazy almost Trump like person who just relies on what their “gut” tells them is “true” and then making wild assumptions and accusations based on that. Want an example of you doing? Your assertion I am cult follower of a YouTuber I literally discovered within the last 72 hours. So, your gut assumptions are obviously not reliable.
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
🇺🇸 aid to 🇺🇦 has been free. 90% of the weapons we gave we’re retired/nearing it and/or costing more $ to dispose of than to give(DPICM). This includes MRAPS, ProMaxx, Avengers, HMMWVs, Patton tank chassis engineering vehicles, old Bradley models in PPS, expired ATACMS, as mentioned DPICM and on and on. And because even our old stuff has performed so well, the US has hundreds of billions in new arms orders. Beyond that, all these weapons were paid for in the 1980s.
So, nothing comes out of our actual budget. I don’t remember these people complaining about the billions per year we’ve been giving Egypt, Pakistan, Israel and so on every year in military aid.
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
Reasons Russia Likely Has a Fraction of its Arsenal Working vs What’s Listed on Paper: It is anybody’s guess to the exact numbers, but it would be shocking based on Russia’s GDP, defense budget and everything we’ve seen from the example of their war in Ukraine to their inability to keep a single nuclear carrier working, even 50% of Russia’s officially listed arsenal actually being in missile form and fully functional would be a miracle.
Nuclear arsenals are mind bogglingly expensive and complicated to maintain. are mind. With a tiny economy (smaller than Italy’s), a tiny defense budget that likely has 50% of it being lost to corruption eating and many, more
pressing military needs requiring cash, there’s no way they can be maintaining anything close to the number of nukes they have on paper.
Anyone thinking “What maintenance? Nuclear material lasts forever!” is mistaken. Contrary to popular perception, nuclear warheads have a short shelf life. This is largely due to the tritium in all nuclear warheads. Tritium’s shelf life is very short and it’s incredibly expensive to produce. Even forgetting the tritium, nuclear armaments are wildly expensive to upkeep.
If only 10-20% are in order, we and they know that’s 100x enough to be all the deterrent it needs and considering how greedy and corrupt Putin, the military and oligarchs are, why would they spend tens-of-billions on nukes they didn’t need. Hell, when NK got a single dinky, unreliable nuke it was enough for the US to take a strike into NK permanently off the table. Meanwhile, Russia still has, at minimum, hundreds of large nukes.
Beyond the cost, their human capital in the atomic area is highly degraded and lacking anything close to the number of personnel to service their arsenal due to:
* Soviet experts aging/dying out of the work force or having long ago emigrated
* an inability to keep young talent when the West pays so much more and has so much more to offer
* A poor record of protecting citizens and personnel from nuclear related mishaps
* a vastly inferior education system / system of engineering programs compared to the Soviet era
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
Anyone who wants a ready to go counterfactual/data points for 🇷🇺 bots trying to mislead people about the 🇺🇦 counter offensive, here’s some data points you can copy/paste (data is my job):
Even data solely from July tells a far different story to that of the Russian narrative:
-Using artillery systems as an example, stats for the month of July as of Saturday show the trend of loss rates trending heavily against Russia based on visually confirmed destroyed / damaged numbers:
A. Russia: 40/4
B. Ukraine: 8/3
-Notably, the recently fired General Popov agrees and he was on the hottest front (Zaporizhzhia). His biggest complaints were a lack of counter battery radar/fire, mass troop deaths and a lack of rotation rendering his troops useless). He was shit canned for threatening to bring these facts to Putin.
-Not everything is going wrong for Russia though, including in counter battery fire. They’ve immensely improved their CBF response times. They’ve gone from sometimes many hours to being as quick to respond as an average of 3-8 mins in some areas.
-Sadly for Russia, once Ukraine gets DPICM, Russia is going to sadly start losing a lot faster. Let’s look at how much more effective cluster munitions are, which Ukraine hasn’t had/used yet (supposedly they did have some, but felt they needed the political cover of being given DPICM by the US before using them)
—->13.6 155mm rounds to kill 1 VC soldier
—->1.7 cluster rounds to kill 1 VC soldier
— ->432 155mm to destroy 8 armored vehicles
— ->145 cluster rounds to kill **173 armored vehicles!**
-Let’s talk about this supposedly failed counter offensive. Ukraine tried directly storming Russian lines using combined arms tactics (lacking air power or sufficient forward SAMs). They got smacked and unlike Russia learned immediately from their mistake and immediately switched to attrition warfare, which has been going great. And, even so, they’re steadily gaining ground on all fronts.
-Russian forces are spread out so thinly, that all it will take is once Ukrainian breakthrough of the main fortified lines to collapse the entire southern region. The bad news for Ukraine is that they haven’t even reached any of those main lines yet.
But, let’s look at the most important thing in war: logistics.
- *EVERY NUMBER IS GOING THE WRONG WAY FOR RUSSIA*
Ukraine has more and better weapons and systems in every single area than they did since the war began. Let’s use artillery as an example:
-Ukraine has roughly 400 more artillery systems than they did before the war began.*
-Russia meanwhile, has had 1,076 visually confirmed artillery system losses.
*However, I will add a caveat here that hurts Ukraine here. That added number comes with a downside, which is that they have a dizzy array of diversity in their systems now, which makes logistics a massive challenge. It is said that up to 1/3rd of their artillery systems are down for maintenance at any one time.
-Meanwhile, according to the number of shells Russia has fired and the average EFC service rate of their artillery, they’ve burnt out more than 6,000 guns since the war began. And, surprise surprise, satellite photos show that Russia has brought 5,000+ guns out of deep storage artillery yards. And, because Russia’s artillery is so much less precise and they have no precision MLRS systems, they will have to continue to massively out fire Ukraine to hope to even be half as effective as Ukrainian artillery fire. They don’t have the shells to do this and they’re running out of stockpiled guns too.
Moreover, while Ukraine had many more soldiers and weapons systems of every type since the war began, Russia:
-has lost Wagner
-has lost the vast majority of Spetsnaz / elite soldiers
-has lost most of their best pilots and are suffering major rotary attrition and significant fixed wing attrition
-has depleted their long range missile stockpiles
-has lost the majority of their competent junior officers
-has had a huge number of senior commanders killed or maimed and seem insistent on firing and arresting a number of their best commanders too
-has no way of replacing any of their depleted systems or munitions in any significant number
-has so few soldiers they cannot rotate anyone and studies show that soldiers become drastically less effective after anywhere between 2-5 months without time away from the front
Finally,
-their economy is in free fall (a ruble is now equivalent in value to a single penny in USD)
-Putin doesn’t dare have another mobilization and is dependent on whatever he can scrape together in illegal conscription in backwater villages where the chances of mass unrest or media attention are minimal
-It’s clear a significantly sized faction in the FSB and MoD have turned on Putin. If that weren’t the case, the Wagner mutiny isn’t possible
So, all-in-all, the worst case scenario is that it’s going to take well into 2024 to clear Russia out of their land. But, even if it takes longer than that, it’s going to happen. Every category of the war is going in the wrong direction for Russia. Putin is unlikely to cling to power if this war is still going on at this level going into 2024 regardless.
That last point, admittedly, is speculation. However, I certainly wouldn’t want to be in his shoes going in to another winter that will freeze thousands of Russian soldiers to death. I cannot see a coup from inside the power brokers or a mutiny by starving and freezing troops not taking place at that point.
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
3
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
NATO countries have done huge work on the transfer of significant volumes of armored vehicles and ammunition: in total, since the beginning of 2023, it has been announced that the AFU will receive 890 units of infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and BATs (this equipment will be enough to staff ~ 29 mechanized battalions), more than 1.5 million units of ammunition, more than 80 self-propelled guns and howitzers, as well as means of delivering deep operational strikes (GLSDB is a type of ammunition for the HIMARS system, which is built around a planning bomb).
the Ukrainian armed forces have begun to form 3 army corps based on both strategic reserve brigades and personnel brigades that actively took part in hostilities, as well as units that are currently in the process of being formed. We are talking about creating a "shock fist" of 75 thousand military personnel, which is designed to do what was previously not possible to implement during the Kharkov-Izyum operation - to mass the forces and conduct a continuous high-intensity offensive, without being distracted by losses or rotations.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
I’d love if Ukraine got back Crimea, but those who understand Russia and its domestic politics, know Ukraine will, sadly, never get it back while Putin or someone similar rules Russia. I think, if tactical nukes are not introduced, this war will end with Ukraine recovering about 65% of the territory they’ve lost since 2/24. It would mean Russia captured about 5% of Ukraine at the cost of revealing their conventional forces are a joke (instead of the second most powerful) and worse, ruining their economy for decades with energy sales falling off a cliff, their arms sales also falling off a cliff with many of their top exports like SAMs performing poorly, 90% of multinationals having pulled out for at least a decade (which was responsible for 35% of Russian jobs), years of crippled industry in every sector with limited access to western components and on and on. Trillions and trillions of dollars lost for a sliver of Ukraine.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
@metaparcel You sound super intelligent. How long have intelligent people been trying to figure out a workable solution in Israel? Decades, but mister sarcastic YouTuber can learn all the necessary players, roadblocks, etc. in just hours. Yeah...
So, yes, if you were going to know enough to suggest let alone formalize an actually applicable plan, including getting the actual states to agree to a solution, making that solution one in which the inhabitants on the ground also adhere to, figuring out the logistical requirements such as resettling people, forming a neutral enforcement force, dearming hard liners, etc. Yes, days, weeks, months.
2
-
@arminep8099 No, none can be understood in minutes. It’s just that have I an extremely deep understanding of the Ukraine/Russia conflict having done boring intel reports since 2017 and continue to do so and I know and was speaking on the fact that the situation in Ukraine is actually almost comically black and white (I.E., Russia never had any non-fabricated reasons for what they’re doing, how they’ve conducted the war, etc.). Maybe this conflict is as simple in terms of right and wrong, but I highly doubt it.
As my op explained, I have quite superficial
knowledge of the conflict and therefore cannot make any useful suggestions. I was speaking on the impression I’ve gotten over the years that it seems like one of those conflicts that will never end, unless one side is ethnically cleansed. I read all comments, like yours, with appreciation on given more info and/or opinion. Even heavily
biased posts are helpful because they help inform one on the information space, the convictions held by those most personally invested, etc.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
Your friend would have been right if Russia was a major exporter of industrial and commercial goods beyond grain and fertilizer. However, Putin and his oligarchs have been anything but focused on logistical efficiency for the purposes of industry. As long as they had a firehose of easy profit from hydrocarbons, they could care less about growing other sectors of the economy. Furthermore, due to climate change, ports which once locked during winter have opened up to year around access.
I could go into all the main driving factors, but critically, Russia saw Ukraine as an easy win with many benefits, including political (domestically), economic (de facto control of Ukrainian resources via access granted by puppets as well as direct control and access in the East, legacy building for Putin, eliminating Ukraine as what they deludedly thought was a base for CIA operatives trying to launch a color revolution in Russia (Putin fully believed Russia’s 2012 protests were the result of a CIA operation), etc. All which they expected to gain with no resistance from Ukraine and the only cost would be a small slap on the wrist in the form of mild and temporary sanctions. The latter expectation being frankly logical based on all the precedents the West had set after similar actions by Russia.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
@mutteringmale lol@the idea the Mongols didn’t care about logistics. You must have learned about them via a cartoon. They are famous for developing all kinds of innovative logistics and administrative efficiencies. Because almost no army could stand against them they often had the luxury of foraging through the countryside unopposed and picking the crops and livestock clean while the enemy starved to death in their castle. One of the reasons they were so effective was because they were about the only empire tolerant of all religions and cultures, primarily because they wanted to incorporate the most talented administrators, engineers, blacksmiths, etc. from anywhere they could get them. It also gave them Intel on every possible enemy they might ever fight.
The European kingdoms of the time, by contrast, were so often a complete joke when it came to planning. Their pride and religious fervor often convinced them they could triumph without putting in the work. They were wrong.
Anyway, if you consider strategies, which included foraging on a mega scale to supply themselves while cutting off their enemies supplies, not caring about logistics, I’m afraid you don’t understand how ancient warfare worked. Or modern warfare for that matter.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
@AltCtrlSpud Not sure you understand just how massive an army Ukraine has built up at the same time Russia’s has become absolutely decimated to at most 30% the size. 🇺🇦 has gotten, at minimum, 100,000 new throughly trained and/or up trained soldiers, they’ve had another roughly 200,000 who have received basic infantry training (two week training course) and then at least another men 100,000 made up of a mixture of pre-existing/surfing territorial defense forces, ad hoc regional militias, official and unofficial foreign volunteer units, etc.
Beyond this, while Russian morale is non-existent and they fight rival units harder than they fight themselves, the Ukrainians are highly motivated and confident with extremely effective military apps: nettles for mapping enemy targets and forces and auto generating objectives without having to go up the chain of command; an automated app that gives AFU commanders real time force disposition reports all over Ukraine and other apps for logistics and ISR. Russia has none of these. It takes them hours to report a new target up the chain of command and hours more to get authorization and orders back down the down chain of command. It takes them days to gather a halfway accurate assessment of the combat readiness and size of their forces in each designated combat zone.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
Zero surprise Russia can only exert force by air w/a 70% conscript army, especially when u consider its army’s design:
Conscripted Soldiers (Serve 1 Year)
-paid less than $25 a month (much less since ruble collapse)
-receive 3-4 months of basic training
-serve for only a year, during which they are often victimized by their own officers, who often violently haze young recruits
-Many receive MREs that expired years ago and insufficient ammunition
Contracted Soldiers (3-Year Service)
-Paid $1,100 per month
-Receive roughly 3x more training
-enjoy many opportunities for
corruption
including siphoning off conscript pay
-Are given better equipment
Russian Supply Lines Were Designed to Fail:
The corrosive effects of the divide between conscript and contract soldier are multiplied by the army’s design, especially in Logistics & Transportations (the most important aspect of armed conflict without doubt).
The most critical logistics units (fuel, ammo & food shipments) are heavily staffed by poorly trained conscripts.
Incompetency and low morale in these critical units has a snowball effect, crippling front-line units. Most of the tanks, AVs, etc. destroyed were already abandoned after both or either getting lost and running out of fuel.
The reason six Russian generals have already died is because they are finding it necessary to fight on or at least be near the front lines to threaten punishment to get their men to do anything. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are used to fighting and will defend their homes until death.”
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
I love the man, but let’s not go crazy here. He stood up well under the IMMENSE pressure of speaking to all of congress and on national TV in a second language. So, purely from a rhetorical POV, it was never going to be a speech to compare with Lincoln, Churchill, MLK, JFK, etc. I think he wisely struck to a moderate. I think he missed some opportunities in his speech and during his stay, I think he made a couple minor optics mistakes. But, yeah, overall he did a really good job.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
A bit of intel on the Bahkmut situation: The day Russian troops withdrew to the right bank of the Dnieper, the Alliance countries announced 660m in new funds + missions to train or improve the skills of 55k Ukrainians during the winter and spring period. And AFU command decided a long-awaited turning point had finally been reached and began the process of withdrawing units from the line of contact.
Some of the units were assigned to the rotation and an even larger mass of personnel was withdrawn to Europe to participate in training programs of coordination and formation of new brigades, which were organized by the countries of the NATO bloc. The number is not certain, but it exceeds 10,000 soldiers.
This, however, now appears to be a mistake. The AFU command seems to have miscalculated the loss of combat effectiveness of Russian units, the ability to accumulate reserves and concentrate them near the front line, especially considering most of the Kherson forces had never fought. Deprived of a significant part of its reserves and ignoring the growing pressure on Bakhmut to the extent that, since the summer, no network of fortifications has been built around the city itself, which is standard practice for the AFU under normal circumstances, they’re now truly threatened by Russia there.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
@bertjilk3456 We’re sending a lot more, but it will take time to build. I’d agree on a big increase if the Russians were dug in, but they’re collapsing on all fronts by as much as 30km per day. At this rate, they’ll be back over their borders by the end of October. And their rate of collapse is only going to increase because a) they were collapsing from actual fortified positions and cities and now they’re in open territory with nowhere to establish new lines of defense, b) 90% of their professional soldiers are dead or wounded and the mobiks arriving will only make them collapse more quickly as their fear, panic and uselessness will only make add to the chaos and sense of hopelessness, c) they literally lost 44 tanks yesterday and 6 jets over the past 4 days, d) a sense of doom is pervading even state media now and combined with the panic on the ground, it will just accelerate their collapse even more, e) they’ve got no winter clothing or even sufficient food and water. And on and on. Without nukes, this war is maybe just a few weeks from being over.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
Anti-Israeli propaganda had been ramping on Russian state TV in the run up to the incident, but the pogrom was an unintended consequence for the Kremlin. All war long 🇷🇺’s propaganda has been pushing citizens to become furious over a different traitor, a different Western country or institution, etc. The Jews were just supposed to be another enemy of the week. But they’re weren’t expecting viewers to do anything about it.
That’s because the Kremlin is living a parallel existence where life has gone on as normal w/no friends or family lost. Yet Dagestan has lost so many sons to the war, they’re an open nerve: exhausted, scared and enraged and looking to vent. When they’re told who the enemy is, that was a release valve the Kremlin didn’t think about.
Yet the masterminds are so detached they just think “what’s wrongwith you? The jews are only the enemy of the week!” This is not surprising as paradoxically, Russian leaders always assume their TV propaganda will work yet, at the same time, are constantly shocked by how easily the people are brainwashed by the TV.
No doubt, this time they were thinking: “Hey, we’re at war to stop the Nazis, remember?”
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
@cannowuppass8214 As a coward who may or not be a USAF veteran, NGAF. Besides, if you paid attention, we’re actually spend little money.
At least 60% of the stuff we’re sending was already paid for decades ago and is being decommissioned, ALREADY decommissioned, we were PAYING to destroy MRAPS, HHMWs are sold as scrap in the US, Avengers = decommissioned, GLSDBs are made from rocket motors we were throwing away and on and on. And all this stuff was MADE specifically to kill Soviet equipment. Furthermore, aiding Ukraine was required, unless we wanted the whole world economy to collapse when China attacked Taiwan. It’s frustrating people like you don’t actually educate yourself on these topics and just swallow anything that comes out of Tucker’s mouth.
By December of 2022, we had degraded or eliminated more than 50% of Russia’s military capability for the price of 3 F35s and zero dead soldiers. That’s the best ROI in our history.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
DUN (like everyone else said). In 2011, I sold my 1998 (therefore, only S52) Estoril Blue M Coupe with 72k in 2011, which was in just good (not in near mint or anything), for $24,000 after buying the car for $25,500 in 2006. Basically, besides insurance and routine maintenance/wear and tear parts, the car was free due its classic status.
This guy doesn’t even know model years and this car has been going up in value FOREVER and everyone knew because of its small build numbers, super unique looks,
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
PBS did cover it. In fact, they did so many documentaries on it Republicans wanted to take away their funding because they did’t like them exposing things we did wrong. So, clearly you have no idea what you’re talking about. Did you expect them to include it here when this story has nothing to do with the US? It’s Russia and Ukraine, but you’re looking for excuses. “Oh, this is OK because some American soldiers did bad things in Iraq and Afghanistan!” BTW, America built tons of hospitals and infrastructure in both those countries. You think Russia is going to do the same?
American officials don’t tell their soldiers to intentionally terrorize civilians or intentionally try to destroy schools, hospitals, power plants. Our war crimes were 95% done by bad soldiers. Russia orders them done. Many were punished. Not enough, but Russia doesn’t care at all and it’s illegal to even talk about it. In America, we make documentaries about bad things our army did. In Russia, you’d be put in prison or killed for doing that. So, yeah, maybe STFU.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@G58 Two things mainly: first, they were driven by multinational corporate interests. As a corporate attorney, John Foster Dulles got the US to invade Cuba to protect US owned sugar plantations. They saw zero difference between American business interests and American interests. Second, they were driven by their Calvinist religious outlook on life that saw the world in black and white and themselves as the arbiter of how the world should look. Importantly, Calvinism professes a duty to its followers to actively go out into the world and make changes that promote good over evil. Sadly, in their eyes, good = America and bad = anyone who stood in their way or even simply stood aside. They were strong believers in manifest destiny, which was not an old concept when they were growing. And you have to remember they grew up in the halls of DC power as their uncle was the secretary of state, which is ironically what JFD ended up being while his brother Allen became the head of the CIA for about 25 years. Imagine being in a position of that much power for 25 years, which is why presidents found they could not constrain him (or Hoover). So, I guess you’d say, they worked for themselves.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
PBS did cover it. In fact, they did so many documentaries on it Republicans wanted to take away their funding because they did’t like them exposing things we did wrong. So, clearly you have no idea what you’re talking about. Did you expect them to include it here when this story has nothing to do with the US? It’s Russia and Ukraine, but you’re looking for excuses. “Oh, this is OK because some American soldiers did bad things in Iraq and Afghanistan!” BTW, America built tons of hospitals and infrastructure in both those countries. You think Russia is going to do the same?
American officials don’t tell their soldiers to intentionally terrorize civilians or intentionally try to destroy schools, hospitals, power plants. Our war crimes were 95% done by bad soldiers. Russia orders them done. Many were punished. Not enough, but Russia doesn’t care at all and it’s illegal to even talk about it. In America, we make documentaries about bad things our army did. In Russia, you’d be put in prison or killed for doing that. So, yeah, maybe STFU.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
This new load of weapons should easily push Ukraine over the top. People are just focusing on the Bradleys (and Marders + AMX from 🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷), but there is SO MUCH MORE in the list. Dozens more self-propelled howitzers, 100,000+ more shells, including thousands of precisions rounds which are each equivalent in value to about 25 dumb rounds, hundreds more M113s, HMMWVs, MRAPS, etc., etc. The M2 Bradley, just like a fighter jet, can destroy enemy tanks at BVR before the enemy even knows you’re there.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
PBS did many. In fact, they did so many documentaries on it Republicans wanted to take away their funding because they did’t like them exposing things we did wrong. So, clearly you have no idea what you’re talking about. Did you expect them to include it here when this story has nothing to do with the US? It’s Russia and Ukraine, but you’re looking for excuses. “Oh, this is OK because some American soldiers did bad things in Iraq and Afghanistan!” BTW, America built tons of hospitals and infrastructure in both those countries. You think Russia is going to do the same?
Our war crimes were 95% done by bad soldiers. Russia orders them done. Many were punished. Not enough, but Russia doesn’t care at all and it’s illegal to even talk about it. In America, we makedocumentaries about bad things our army did. In Russia, you’d be put in prison or killed for doing that. So, yeah, maybe STFU.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm.
Their allies, including Washington, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working.
Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. While it hangs back from supporting Ukraine in a fight to defend its democracy from invasion by a tyrant, it has no qualms about selling to authoritarian regimes, like those in the Middle East, where it does brisk business selling weapons to countries such as Egypt and Qatar.
Despite everything that’s happened over the past year, Berlin is still holding out hope that Ukraine can somehow patch things up with Russia so that Germany can resume business as usual and switch the gas back on. Even if Germany ends up sending tanks to Ukraine — as many now anticipate — it will deliver as few as it can get away with and only after exhausting every possible option to delay.
Much attention in recent years has focused on Nord Stream 2, the ill-fated Russo-German natural gas project. Yet tensions between the U.S. and Germany over the latter’s entanglement with Russian energy interests date back to the late 1950s, when it first began supplying the Soviet Union with large-diameter piping.
Throughout the Cold War, Germany’s involvement with NATO was driven by a strategy to take advantage of the protection the alliance afforded, delivering no more than the absolute minimum, while also expanding commercial relations with the Soviets.
In 1955, the weekly Die Zeit described what it called the “fireside fantasy of West German industry” to normalize trade relations with the Soviet Union. Within years, that dream became a reality, driven in large measure by Chancellor Willy Brandt’s détente policies, known as Ostpolitik.
That’s one reason the Germans so feared U.S. President Ronald Reagan and his hard line against the Soviets. Far from welcoming his “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall” demand, both the German public and industry were terrified by it, worried that Reagan would upset the apple cart and destroy their business in the east.
By the time the Berlin Wall fell a couple of years later, West German exports to the Soviet Union had reached nearly 12 billion deutsche mark, a record.
That’s why Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm.
Germany’s dithering over aid to Ukraine is a logical extension of a strategy that has served its economy well from the Cold War to the decision to block Ukraine’s NATO accession in 2008 to Nord Stream.
Just last week, as the Russians were raining terror on Dnipro, the minister president of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, called for the repair of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline so that Germany “keeps the option” to purchase Russian gas after war ends.
The money Germany has saved on defense has enabled it to finance one of the world’s most generous welfare states. When Germany was under pressure from allies a few years ago to finally meet NATO’s 2 percent of GDP spending target, then-Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel called the goal “absurd.” And from a German perspective, he was right; why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?
Of course, the Germans have had a lot of help milking, especially from the U.S.
American presidents have been chastising Germany over its lackluster contribution to the Western alliance going as far back as Dwight D. Eisenhower, only to do nothing about it.
The exception that proves the rule is Donald Trump, whose plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Germany was thwarted by his election loss.
Joe Biden, eager to reverse the diplomatic damage inflicted during the Trump years, reversed course and has gone out of his way to show his appreciation for all things German.
Biden’s decision to court the Germans instead of castigating them for failing to meet their commitments taught Berlin that it merely needs to wait out crises in the transatlantic relationship and the problems will fix themselves. Under pressure from Trump to buy American liquefied natural gas, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed in 2018 to support the construction of the necessary infrastructure. After Trump, those plans were put on ice, only to revive them amid the current energy crisis.
By virtue of its size and geographical position at the center of Europe, Germany will always be important for the U.S., if not as a true ally, at least as an erstwhile partner and staging ground for the American military.
Who cares that the Bundeswehr has become a punchline or that Germany remains years away from meeting its NATO spending targets?
In Washington’s view, Germany might be a bad ally, but at least it’s America’s bad ally.
And no one understands the benefits of that status better than the Germans themselves.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@ridemx77 I majored in Russian history at UCLA, have been doing intel reports for the Eurasian zone for years and still love learning about history, digging into geopolitics, etc. on my own time. I have found nothing to support Russia’s actions. So, I am giving you the certified paid troll seal of approval.
But, hey, I’ll entertain your little game. Let’s say 🇷🇺 had an actual justification for invading Ukraine, what’s the justification for mass r*pes, bombing apartment buildings, castrating a POW on camera and so on? And even if we assumed your inevitable retort of “What about Ukraine shelling Donbas” was true, how does that justify victimizing civilians who have never been within a hundred yards of a howitzer? And if your answer is going to be “Russia isn’t doing that!” don’t even bother responding.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@dalecrocker3213 More like April or May. Russian lines will shatter like glass. They’re being held back by mainly territorial defenses, Ukraine’s worst tanks and basic artillery. Combine GLSDB, Bradleys, CV90s, T-91 Twardies, Leopards, Avengers, Archers and so on and Russia will be absolutely crushed, especially since they have basically no professional troops while the AFU has at least 40,000 newly NATO-trained soldiers yet to be deployed and they will be utterly smashed. Ukraine is intelligently massing their men and equipment until they’re ready to launch a true shock fist and in the meantime minimizing Russian progress. Meanwhile, Russia goes off cocked with an offensive that is basically over with only Bakhmut remaining a focus. So, they’ve made a gain of about 1.5 miles over 7 months at the cost of 45,000 KIA for a small town that is now just rubble.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Are you high? This must be a Murdoch owned news station w/subtle hyping of Russia, NATO bashing, Israel praising, overblowing the Iranian threat, etc. This “favorite military advisor” is clearly either out of the loop on Ukraine (or purposely lying) if he thinks Ukraine will even come to the table, let alone agree to peace, if Russia ate controlling most or all of Donbas, Luhansk, Crimea and the coastline of southern Ukraine. Even more hilariously, he thinks Macron and Scholz will be the one to force them to the table when they’re two of the men who have, individually, done the least for Ukraine (it was Germany’s own congress who blasted Scholz for being tentative). It will be America and his own citizens who will be the main movers behind willingness to come to the table. He’s also high if he thinks NATO looks weak right now and they’d let Russia step on a NATO member without a response. He is either stupid or a Trump type in his politics if he’s using NATO not striking back against Russia for messing w/non-NATO members. The whole point of NATO is that they do not act outside the sphere of their own member states.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Earlier in the war when they weren’t working with much what they were doing in terms of adaption and innovation was amazing, but right now it’s pretty easy what they’re doing (as in the commanders job of determining strategy and tactics - being on the ground is never easy). Ukraine now has much superior weaponry, exponentially better soldiers and commanders as well as many more of both (soldiers and commanders). Russia basically destroyed half its army to get a political victory in Bakhmut. And, now, with storm shadow and HIMARS, Russia can barely perform any operational level maneuvers and at a local level, they’re beginning to be hopelessly outmatched. Ukraine made the painful but smart decision to sacrifice about 5,000 men to allow them to train hundreds of thousands of soldiers, medics, sappers, etc. and amass new equipment while letting the Russians bleed themselves out. Now, Russia is naked and shivering.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@Excellent135 Singapore is dominated by Han Chinese and they almost never contradict the utter BS spewing out of Beijing. Ironically, despite the CCP’s love of screaming “imperialists,” it is China who is now in their colonial stage. Of course colonialism now means putting a strangle hold on another’s economy and government rather than planting a literal flag. But, just like the colonial
powers did once upon a time, they’re spreading out bases to wherever they can, buying up property and key infrastructure all over the world, buying off governments, etc. Once their real estate/housing market collapses, it’ll be interesting to see how much grasp on power they can retain. Of course, when their economy crashes, it’s going to take us all down with them. Not quite as bad it will be there, but it won’t be pretty.
However, it is true that Singapore cannot be said to be firmly in the sphere of either the USA or China. They’re a financial hub which depends on the rules based order winning. But they also don’t want that rules based order to become overly fair. It’s not in their interest to support either too strongly, but they definitely don’t want China starting a war.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
PBS did cover it. In fact, they did so many documentaries on it Republicans wanted to take away their funding because they did’t like them exposing things we did wrong. So, clearly you have no idea what you’re talking about. Did you expect them to include it here when this story has nothing to do with the US? It’s Russia and Ukraine, but you’re looking for excuses. “Oh, this is OK because some American soldiers did bad things in Iraq and Afghanistan!” BTW, America built tons of hospitals and infrastructure in both those countries. You think Russia is going to do the same?
American officials don’t tell their soldiers to intentionally terrorize civilians or intentionally try to destroy schools, hospitals, power plants. Our war crimes were 95% done by bad soldiers. Russia orders them done. Many were punished. Not enough, but Russia doesn’t care at all and it’s illegal to even talk about it. In America, we make documentaries about bad things our army did. In Russia, you’d be put in prison or killed for doing that. So, yeah, maybe STFU.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm: Their allies, including DC, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working.
Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. While it hangs back from supporting Ukraine in a fight to defend its democracy from invasion by a tyrant, it has no qualms about selling to authoritarian regimes, like those in the Middle East, where it does brisk business selling weapons to countries such as Egypt and Qatar.
Despite everything that’s happened over the past year, Berlin is still holding out hope that Ukraine can somehow patch things up with Russia so that Germany can resume business as usual and switch the gas back on. Even if Germany ends up sending tanks to Ukraine — as many now anticipate — it will deliver as few as it can get away with and only after exhausting every possible option to delay.
Much attention in recent years has focused on Nord Stream 2, the ill-fated Russo-German natural gas project. Yet tensions between the U.S. and Germany over the latter’s entanglement with Russian energy interests date back to the late 1950s, when it first began supplying the Soviet Union with large-diameter piping.
Throughout the Cold War, Germany’s involvement with NATO was driven by a strategy to take advantage of the protection the alliance afforded, delivering no more than the absolute minimum, while also expanding commercial relations with the Soviets.
In 1955, the weekly Die Zeit described what it called the “fireside fantasy of West German industry” to normalize trade relations with the Soviet Union. Within years, that dream became a reality, driven in large measure by Chancellor Willy Brandt’s détente policies, known as Ostpolitik.
That’s one reason the Germans so feared U.S. President Ronald Reagan and his hard line against the Soviets. Far from welcoming his “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall” demand, both the German public and industry were terrified by it, worried that Reagan would upset the apple cart and destroy their business in the east.
By the time the Berlin Wall fell a couple of years later, West German exports to the Soviet Union had reached nearly 12 billion deutsche mark, a record.
That’s why Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm.
Germany’s dithering over aid to Ukraine is a logical extension of a strategy that has served its economy well from the Cold War to the decision to block Ukraine’s NATO accession in 2008 to Nord Stream.
Just last week, as the Russians were raining terror on Dnipro, the minister president of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, called for the repair of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which was blown up by unknown saboteurs last year, so that Germany “keeps the option” to purchase Russian gas after war ends.
The money Germany has saved on defense has enabled it to finance one of the world’s most generous welfare states. When Germany was under pressure from allies a few years ago to finally meet NATO’s 2 percent of GDP spending target, then-Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel called the goal “absurd.” And from a German perspective, he was right; why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?
Of course, the Germans have had a lot of help milking, especially from the U.S.
American presidents have been chastising Germany over its lackluster contribution to the Western alliance going as far back as Dwight D. Eisenhower, only to do nothing about it.
The exception that proves the rule is Donald Trump, whose plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Germany was thwarted by his election loss.
Joe Biden, eager to reverse the diplomatic damage inflicted during the Trump years, reversed course and has gone out of his way to show his appreciation for all things German.
Biden’s decision to court the Germans instead of castigating them for failing to meet their commitments taught Berlin that it merely needs to wait out crises in the transatlantic relationship and the problems will fix themselves. Under pressure from Trump to buy American liquefied natural gas, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed in 2018 to support the construction of the necessary infrastructure. After Trump, those plans were put on ice, only to revive them amid the current energy crisis.
By virtue of its size and geographical position at the center of Europe, Germany will always be important for the U.S., if not as a true ally, at least as an erstwhile partner and staging ground for the American military.
Who cares that the Bundeswehr has become a punchline or that Germany remains years away from meeting its NATO spending targets?
In Washington’s view, Germany might be a bad ally, but at least it’s America’s bad ally.
And no one understands the benefits of that
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@lt1310 I don’t know what a Ukrainian “card”
is. I also know, that even if Russia captures all of Donetsk, Luhansk and recovers all of Kursk, they will have lost the war because it will have destroyed its economy, including energy and arms market, expanded NATO, weakened it beyond measure, cost them trillions in lost military equipment and infrastructure damage. And even the only objective he will have achieved, which was to prevent Ukraine from flourishing after decoupling from Russia as it would show Russians how useless he is + the model of government he promotes (that only dictatorships work and democracies fail), will have backfired anyway. Because, while it may leave Ukraine struggling, Russia will be doing 100x worse than before the war and he’ll have sacrificed so many citizens for the reward of ruining his country’s future.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
🇺🇸 drones are always expensive, but it’s dumb for that video compare it to the MQ-9, which has a service ceiling of 50,000 feet, 27 hours (48 hours and 8,000 miles) for the MQ-9B + endurance, can carry eight Hellfire missiles, GBU Paveways, JDAM and more. So, it does combat, surveillance, etc. It’s also $30m, not $50m.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@cratecruncher6687 Actually, the opposite. They’re using COVID an excuse (via total lockdowns) to stress test a wartime time under sanctions scenario, stockpiling the world’s grain supply, forced out 99% of foreigners, completely eliminated even the smallest amount of free speech let alone independent journalism or criticism and so on. Worst of all, Xi is under such pressure for how badly his zero COVID policy and useless vaccines have worked with an upcoming party election, he wants a war to change the narrative. I hope I am wrong, but all signs point toward rather than the opposite. You are correct on one point, which is that he’s seen how much isolation can truly cost. However, Russia doesn’t make 90% of the world’s junk (huge leverage), it isn’t a tiny economy like Russia and it can make almost everything it needs domestically. Food production is their biggest weakness, which is why they’ve been stockpiling grain to a crazy extent.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
PANDITJI. PUTIN You’re conflating profiteering and, yes, endless example of terrible behavior by the CIA (mainly under the Dulles brothers, which, BTW, is no longer the MO of the CIA, SD and DOD when they operated like the whole world was the Wild West) with cause and effect. The Dulles brothers, unelected, steered US covert foreign policy for nearly 30 years and aimed at owning the world even if it meant overthrowing democratic governments and enabling the drug trade and selling drugs to US minority communities. It has reaped terrible turmoil for us and the world. All that is and can be true without the US intentionally being behind every war for the sole purpose of enriching the military industrial complex. However, I guess what aboutism and not fact and complexity, is easier for you to understand.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@leoniefreihart Luckily, much of the most important equipment is located almost immediately next to Ukraine and already prepped for delivery (the M2s for example are taken from what is termed PPS or pre-positioned stock that is forward deployed in Germany and other locations across Europe). They’ve already been training on the Bradleys for at least a month and most of the APCs they’re getting do not require training. They’re even already training on the Leopards too. So, the German two-step won’t damage 🇺🇦 as much as it might seem at first glance. I think the Ukrainians are nearly finished training on the Patriot system too. The only items I really worry about delays on are the AMX-RC 10s (cause, presumably, they’ve been in deep storage and the French are, well, French) and the Marders for obvious reasons. Fortunately, they only represent 90 of the 1,600+ newly promised armored vehicles. Less fortunately, those 90 are much more important than, say, 90 M113 APCs.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@sidp5381 lol, yeah, apparently the U.S. is behind every single problem in the world. What an intellectually lazy comment. No, while the US has contributed to both stability and instability in the Muslim world, the 1,400 year old death struggle between Shias and Sunnis, a thousand different tribal rivalries, competing economic and geopolitical agendas among North African countries, longstanding French, Turkish, Russian, ME, etc. interests in the country and region and on and on, all together form the actual story. Not just the reductionist “America did it” conclusion clueless dilettantes proclaim.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
I love this guy, but he’s wrong about the timing. NATO countries have done huge work on the transfer of significant volumes of armored vehicles and ammunition: in total, since the beginning of 2023, it has been announced that the AFU will receive 890 units of infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and BATs (this equipment will be enough to staff ~ 29 mechanized battalions), more than 1.5 million units of ammunition, more than 80 self-propelled guns and howitzers, as well as means of delivering deep operational strikes (GLSDB is a type of ammunition for the HIMARS system, which is built around a planning bomb).
the Ukrainian armed forces have begun to form 3 army corps based on both strategic reserve brigades and personnel brigades that actively took part in hostilities, as well as units that are currently in the process of being formed. We are talking about creating a "shock fist" of 75 thousand military personnel, which is designed to do what was previously not possible to implement during the Kharkov-Izyum operation - to mass the forces and conduct a continuous high-intensity offensive, without being distracted by losses or rotations.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@irishcanuck9489 Biden isn’t stupid. He’s senile. And, while he makes a mess of interviews and speeches, his admin’s actual results are very strong: economy is thriving w/moderate inflation being the only weakness in the economy, he’s passed more bills than Trump’s term and Obama’s last term did combined, including wide sweeping critical infrastructure projects that we’ve been trying to get done for 20 years, lower prescription costs for families, etc. Unemployment is at a 50-year low. Domestic manufacturing is really starting to take off. This was quickly done too before the GOP claimed the speakership and went into we won’t pass anything no matter how good for America it is if Trump doesn’t endorse it or a single democrat let alone Biden was involved in drafting it.
So, yeah, all this “the sky is falling” is just noise produced by social media, the GOP and their media empire. It’s also due to the fact that because Biden has really started losing the plot, he hasn’t even bothered to remind Americans about what he’s passed, what was in it, etc.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Meanwhile, Fox News is telling its viewers Biden bombed the pipeline and they’re lapping it up. Because they’re not even aware Russia had already cut off the gas or the contractual penalties Putin was facing, they just figure “why would he blow up his own pipeline.” Using a January clip of Biden promising Nord 2 would be shut down if Russia invaded, MAGATS are “100% sure it was Biden.” Biden Derangement Syndrome definitely exists.
1. Russia saved itself tens of billions it was going to owe for breaching its contractual obligation to deliver natural gas, but with the pipeline now busted and impossible to prove it was them, they’ll be off the hook.
2. Putin is literally fighting for his life with hundreds of thousands running from the country to avoid mobilization and facing certain defeat in Ukraine, which combined will get him removed and killed. By blowing the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines, the only pipeline from Russia to Europe is under Ukraine and Ukraine has turned it off. Putin hope Russia can hold their lines until late in winter and that Europe will get so desperate for gas that they will pressure Ukraine into a ceasefire/peace, so the pipeline can be turned back on. That would allow him to escape without losing.
3. He wants the world to fear him and take his nuclear threats seriously. Blowing up the pipeline is an escalation that will make many take that more seriously.
Finally, Russia and Europe were already cut off from Russian gas and pledged to get completely off Russian NG by 2024. So, why would Biden need to blow it up and why now? It makes no sense.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Some additional interesting facts on the deep
rot:
*Germany blocked NATO’s ascension to NATO in 2008, blocked a meaningful EU sanctions package on Russia in 2014 and the SPD has always viewed the Baltic states as not deserving of independence and an annoying impediment to its work with Russia.
*News this month that the number of German soldiers declaring themselves conscientious objectors rose fivefold in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine created little more than a ripple in Germany. For many Germans it’s perfectly natural for members of the Bundeswehr, the army, to renege on the pledge they made to defend their country; if Germans themselves. don’t want to fight, why should their troops?
Indeed, in Germany, a soldier isn’t a soldier but a “citizen in uniform.” It’s an apposite euphemism for a populace that has lived comfortably under the U.S. security umbrella for more than seven decades and goes a long way toward explaining how Germany became NATO’s problem child since the war in Ukraine began, delaying and frustrating the Western effort to get Ukraine the weaponry it needs to defend itself against an unprovoked Russian onslaught.
*In the opening hours of the war, Germany’s finance minister laughed at the Ukrainian ambassador’s request for aid because ‘sending aid would be a waste of because your country will be done in hours.’
*Germany is STILL talking (as in this week) about their hope to restore normal relations and energy imports w/Russia once the war is “resolved.”
*Germany’s allies, including Washington, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working.
Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. Gerhard Schroder was literally Scholz’s mentor and Putin is the god father to one of his children, he was on the gazprom board, STILL won’t condemn Putin. You don’t get more transparently corrupt.
1
-
@kx4532 Germany’s allies, including Washington, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working.
Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. While it hangs back from supporting Ukraine in a fight to defend its democracy from invasion by a tyrant, it has no qualms about selling to authoritarian regimes, like those in the Middle East, where it does brisk business selling weapons to countries such as Egypt and Qatar.
Despite everything that’s happened over the past year, Berlin is still holding out hope that Ukraine can somehow patch things up with Russia so that Germany can resume business as usual and switch the gas back on. Even if Germany ends up sending tanks to Ukraine — as many now anticipate — it will deliver as few as it can get away with and only after exhausting every possible option to delay.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Meanwhile, they also say nothing about how Ukraine has fully driven the remnants of the BS Fleet away and achieved the ability to sxport grain. Or how Russian has lost tens-of-thousands in a two-month period and around a thousand major systems (tanks, IFVs, APCs, TOS-1, MLRS, artillery systems, jets, helicopters, GBADs, etc., etc.)
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm: Their allies, including Washington, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working.
Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. While it hangs back from supporting Ukraine in a fight to defend its democracy from invasion by a tyrant, it has no qualms about selling to authoritarian regimes, like those in the Middle East, where it does brisk business selling weapons to countries such as Egypt and Qatar.
Despite everything that’s happened over the past year, Berlin is still holding out hope that Ukraine can somehow patch things up with Russia so that Germany can resume business as usual and switch the gas back on. Even if Germany ends up sending tanks to Ukraine — as many now anticipate — it will deliver as few as it can get away with and only after exhausting every possible option to delay.
Much attention in recent years has focused on Nord Stream 2, the ill-fated Russo-German natural gas project. Yet tensions between the U.S. and Germany over the latter’s entanglement with Russian energy interests date back to the late 1950s, when it first began supplying the Soviet Union with large-diameter piping.
Throughout the Cold War, Germany’s involvement with NATO was driven by a strategy to take advantage of the protection the alliance afforded, delivering no more than the absolute minimum, while also expanding commercial relations with the Soviets.
In 1955, the weekly Die Zeit described what it called the “fireside fantasy of West German industry” to normalize trade relations with the Soviet Union. Within years, that dream became a reality, driven in large measure by Chancellor Willy Brandt’s détente policies, known as Ostpolitik.
That’s one reason the Germans so feared U.S. President Ronald Reagan and his hard line against the Soviets. Far from welcoming his “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall” demand, both the German public and industry were terrified by it, worried that Reagan would upset the apple cart and destroy their business in the east.
By the time the Berlin Wall fell a couple of years later, West German exports to the Soviet Union had reached nearly 12 billion deutsche mark, a record.
That’s why Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm.
Germany’s dithering over aid to Ukraine is a logical extension of a strategy that has served its economy well from the Cold War to the decision to block Ukraine’s NATO accession in 2008 to Nord Stream.
Just last week, as the Russians were raining terror on Dnipro, the minister president of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, called for the repair of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which was blown up by unknown saboteurs last year, so that Germany “keeps the option” to purchase Russian gas after war ends.
The money Germany has saved on defense has enabled it to finance one of the world’s most generous welfare states. When Germany was under pressure from allies a few years ago to finally meet NATO’s 2 percent of GDP spending target, then-Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel called the goal “absurd.” And from a German perspective, he was right; why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?
Of course, the Germans have had a lot of help milking, especially from the U.S.
American presidents have been chastising Germany over its lackluster contribution to the Western alliance going as far back as Dwight D. Eisenhower, only to do nothing about it.
The exception that proves the rule is Donald Trump, whose plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Germany was thwarted by his election loss.
Joe Biden, eager to reverse the diplomatic damage inflicted during the Trump years, reversed course and has gone out of his way to show his appreciation for all things German.
Biden’s decision to court the Germans instead of castigating them for failing to meet their commitments taught Berlin that it merely needs to wait out crises in the transatlantic relationship and the problems will fix themselves. Under pressure from Trump to buy American liquefied natural gas, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed in 2018 to support the construction of the necessary infrastructure. After Trump, those plans were put on ice, only to revive them amid the current energy crisis.
By virtue of its size and geographical position at the center of Europe, Germany will always be important for the U.S., if not as a true ally, at least as an erstwhile partner and staging ground for the American military.
Who cares that the Bundeswehr has become a punchline or that Germany remains years away from meeting its NATO spending targets?
In Washington’s view, Germany might be a bad ally, but at least it’s America’s bad ally.
And no one understands the benefits of that
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
I’d love if Ukraine captured Moscow, but if you understand the situation at all, you’d realize Ukraine will, sadly, never get back Crimea. I think, if tactical nukes are not introduced, this war will end with Ukraine recovering about 65% of the territory they’ve lost since 2/24. It would mean Russia captured about 5% of Ukraine at the cost of revealing their conventional forces are a joke (instead of the second most powerful) and worse, ruining their economy for decades with energy sales falling off a cliff, their arms sales also falling off a cliff with many of their top exports like SAMs performing poorly, 90% of multinationals having pulled out for at least a decade (which was responsible for 35% of Russian jobs), years of crippled industry in every sector with limited access to western components and on and on. Trillions and trillions of dollars lost for a sliver of Ukraine.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
PBS did cover it. In fact, they did so many documentaries on it Republicans wanted to take away their funding because they did’t like them exposing things we did wrong. So, clearly you have no idea what you’re talking about. Did you expect them to include it here when this story has nothing to do with the US? It’s Russia and Ukraine, but you’re looking for excuses. “Oh, this is OK because some American soldiers did bad things in Iraq and Afghanistan!” BTW, America built tons of hospitals and infrastructure in both those countries. You think Russia is going to do the same?
American officials don’t tell their soldiers to intentionally terrorize civilians or intentionally try to destroy schools, hospitals, power plants. Our war crimes were 95% done by bad soldiers. Russia orders them done. Many were punished. Not enough, but Russia doesn’t care at all and it’s illegal to even talk about it. In America, we make documentaries about bad things our army did. In Russia, you’d be put in prison or killed for doing that. So, yeah, maybe STFU.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
While 🇷🇺’s military is hollow and inept + running low on equipment, Putin’s not half as desperate as he once was & one area where 🇷🇺 remains the gold standard is information warfare and they are definitely doing in this large part to try and break the will of Western leaders and voters (especially the U.S.) and/or in many cases, give right wing populists and some leftist politicians too, a narrative they already want to sing (I.E., Ukraine’s war is hopeless and Russia is too powerful or it’d cost too much to beat them). As we’ve seen, both the cost and Russian capacity arguments are ludicrous. Russia is drowning and for most of the major Western supporters, their aid has been at the scale of a rounding error. I’m assuming this is what Anders will say in the video. And, if so, it’s the right take.
edit: after watching the video, the one area where I disagree with Anders is that the losses are good for their narrative and show resolve. However, in a way, he says this himself.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Their coverage has been damning. The idea 🇺🇦 now can’t win or it’ll take years is insane + reveals how much media expectations shift w/out reason : the “experts” and media went from “they’ll lose in three days” to “they’ll easily split the Russian army in summer 2023 even without half the tools we promised”
And now back to “Russia is winning - they took 🇺🇦 Meryinka after only 2 years despite it being on the edge of Dontesk” (and was basically just a field since 100% of the tiny village’s structures were flattened completely - so no utility as a fortification or places to hide while advancing. - that Russia lost around 125 AVs (IFVs, APCs and MBTs) + 10k KIA.
Meanwhile, they say nothing about how Ukraine has fully driven the remnants of the BS Fleet away and achieved the ability to sxport grain. Or how Russian has lost tens-of-thousands in a two-month period and around a thousand major systems (tanks, IFVs, APCs, TOS-1, MLRS, artillery systems, jets, helicopters, GBADs, etc., etc.)
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
The BMW that produced the E30 M3 might be compared to a Tesla or early Apple company. Its engineering nucleus’ formed in the ‘60s (hatching BMW’s best ever car (the 1600/2002). In the ‘70s, like a 2000s Google, they started getting all the best talent who saw the hardcore, fwd thinking engineering culture of those that made the 2002 and liberal corporate management. Then, being small and nimble, development led by hardcore engineers rather than bean counters, marketing men or a boardroom of dinosaurs, in turn both attracted and spawned a super enthusiastic, dedicated and skilled body of machinists, assemblymen, etc. that could be relied on to execute on building highly engineered cars with the necessary precision (there’s a great 1970s documentary inside the factory on YT that shows how high of a level they were operating on and how innovative the company was). It was this group that developed the company into icon it is and was responsible for all its greatest cars and the glory 80s- and 90s years. No surprise that its last great cars, the M Coupe, E46 M3 and E39 M5, were the last designed and developed by that group before most were gone into retirement or death.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@Briguy1027 This explains why (I pasted it)
Layered Air Defense
So, why do man-portable air defense systems act as a strategic constraint for tactical aviation? Let's first define the conceptual apparatus: MANPADS is a highly mobile compact short-range air defense system. It is generally accepted that, on average, weapons of this type are dangerous at a distance of up to 4 km and an altitude of up to 5.5 km (these are very average values, because everything depends on the generation of a particular MANPADS, its characteristics, operator training, firing position, etc.). d.). Why can a weapon with such seemingly modest characteristics somehow complicate the actions of tactical aviation? I have repeatedly written (and will write again and again) that the armed forces are a mechanism, and weapons systems are part of this mechanism, which, in interaction with each other, should create restrictions for the enemy at all levels, up to the strategic one. The closest example is the ongoing hostilities in Ukraine. The Ukrainian armed forces had 52 air defense divisions, however, ground-based air defense systems themselves have a rather low level of combat stability. Acting as a separate element of the system, they are unable to stop a powerful air offensive - aviation, due to its characteristics, has more options for adapting even in the face of fierce opposition from ground-based air defense. Under such conditions, the Russian Air Force (given their numerous technical limitations: the lack of a reconnaissance circuit, electronic warfare air platforms, effective high-precision weapons, training, doctrinal competence) would switch to using the decades-old practice of low-altitude breakthrough tactics - the most dangerous for ground-based air defense, whose radars are extremely limited detect targets in relative proximity to the terrain surface. Ultimately, after a few months of hostilities, Ukraine's air defense would be depleted, losing at least 55-65% of its pre-war strength. However, this did not happen. Why? Mass deliveries of MANPADS. The active saturation of the Ukrainian army with numerous anti-aircraft platoons did not give the Russian Air Force the opportunity to implement the tactics of low-altitude breakthroughs, while medium and high altitudes remained covered by both military and object air defense, which did not suffer serious losses. At one time, the United States faced a similar problem during the Vietnam War (super-saturation of the Vietnamese battle formations with anti-aircraft artillery, coupled with the constant threat from the S-75 air defense system) and Israel (the Yom Kippur War became an extremely difficult test for Israeli aviation, faced with a powerful combined defense from S-75 air defense systems, covered by a large number of Shilka ZSUs). MANPADS perform the same role that small-caliber anti-aircraft artillery previously performed - they cover low altitudes, making any air operations to search for and destroy stationary air defense systems extremely risky, which, accordingly, in the system does not give aviation the opportunity to operate at an operational depth, limiting its capabilities only to combat work directly on the front line in the “hit-retreat” mode (this is what we have been observing for the last 2-2.5 months). Summing up, the scheme can be described as follows: ➖ SAMs do not allow aviation to operate freely at medium and high altitudes, forcing it to low ones; ➖ Saturation of MANPADS troops does not allow aviation to operate at altitudes up to 5.5 km, limits it in low-altitude maneuvers and does not allow carrying out operations to destroy air defense systems without a high degree of risk. I note that MANPADS, for all their merits (compactness, mobility and ease of development - for example, Stinger, although not perfect, but you can master it in a couple of lessons) do not replace anti-aircraft artillery - it is still more than necessary and relevant as part of battle formations , although it requires qualified military personnel, well-established logistics and has a higher cost. We will talk about the existing methods of confronting layered air defense next time
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@cannowuppass8214 lol,the stability of the world is our business, lackwit. If we had allowed Russia to take Ukraine, China would have been encouraged to try and take Taiwan, which would destroy the world economy and result in a crazy expensive war to boot. In your world, America can’t two things at the same time.
BTW, the amount of money we’ve spent on Ukraine is negligible and equivalent to less than 1% of the annual defense budget, which w/spending adjustments to account for inflation, is more than $1 trillion FY 2023.
It’s even less when you realize most of what was sent was bought + paid for during Reagan’s admin, was never going to be used and, In fact, was going to cost us hundreds of millions in disposal expenses. We’d already destroyed hundreds of millions of dollars in DPICM ammo. So, while the DoD assigns a dollar value of $90b+ to our aid, the weapons were dead weight costing us $. So, in exchange for a few billion and zero dead Americans, we’ve turned 🇷🇺’s arsenal + soldiers into scrap and deterred 🇨🇳 at the same time. A pretty great ROI.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Tesla’s stock value = proof of how stupid the average person is. To them, it totally makes sense it is valued at more than BMW, Ferrari, Ford, Honda, Toyota, Mazda, Mercedes, Nissan, Rivian, Subaru, Porsche & VW COMBINED.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1