Youtube comments of The Zero Line (@The_ZeroLine).

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  78. Once the AFU got Western weapons in numbers, Russia was doomed. After WWII, the Soviet defense industry continued to think in terms of the Second World War: that superior technology was not needed as long as you could field overwhelming number. Meanwhile, realizing the conceptual impasse of competing in a symmetrical arms race, the US decided to create a new generation of weapons, which led to the HIMARS first used in 1991 in Iraq. American MLRS systems were fundamentally different from their Soviet counterparts even before they began design. For the USSR, MLRS were considered as a means of creating a dense fire shaft. The US designed its offspring as a tool capable of breaking the overwhelming numerical superiority of the artillery of the Soviet bloc with speedy and surgically accurate strikes. By itself, from the point of view of technology, the M270 at that time did not represent something that would be an order of magnitude superior to its competitors - on the contrary, the impressive results of its combat use were dictated primarily by advanced tactics and an extremely competent concept. The installation did not have a radical superiority in range over Soviet weapons (relatively speaking, 30 km versus 20 km) - its trump card was accuracy, mobility and constant work in conjunction with reconnaissance equipment. Value of Soldiers WWII also had a particularly strong influence on militaries’ perception of the value of a person who was both the main driving force of war and the main factor limiting the combat effectiveness of the armed forces as a system. The West and the Soviets arrived at opposite conclusions: the US embarked on combining technology paired with intensive individual training and professionalism to exponentially increase the potential of the modest soldier. The Soviets OTH continued to develop the vicious concepts of the WWI: the soldier was an asset of no value - an insignificant addition to the masses of armored columns and the creeping barrage of tens of thousands of missiles and shells. A concept the Russians never discarded despite declining birth rates, especially in Russia which has a negative growth rate AND lost most of its biggest population centers after the break up of the USSR. While the world had had an overabundance of youth in the early 20th century, the value of human capital in the armies grew exponentially as population demographics trended much older. As technology became more and more complex, sophisticated and deadly high-precision weapons, replenishing the ranks of the armed forces became exponentially more difficult and expensive. The era of being able to sacrifice million upon million to war was as antiquated as a calvary charge and just as ineffective.
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  84. Here’s the reason this war was over before it began once the Ukrainians paired its talent for recons w/the acquisition of the HARM 88, HIMARS & precision shells for the M777: After WWII, the Soviet defense industry continued to think in terms of the Second World War: that superior technology was not needed as long as you could field overwhelming numbers. The West (particularly the US and UK) OTH, simply brainstormed a way to break the impasse of competing in a symmetrical quantity race and decided to create new tactics with less men but more impact (combined arms doctrine) and a new generation of weapons: introduce the HIMARS. The Soviets viewed the MLRS as a means of creating a dense channel of fire while the US designed its MLRS as a tool capable of breaking the overwhelming numerical superiority of the artillery of the Soviet bloc with speedy and surgically accurate strikes. WWII also had a strong influence on armies’ perception of the value of the individual soldier who was both the driving force of war and its limiting factor. The West and the Soviets arrived at opposite conclusions: the US embarked on combining technology paired with intensive individual training and professionalism to exponentially increase the potential of the modest soldier. The Soviets OTH continued to develop the vicious concepts of the WWI: the soldier was an asset of no value - an insignificant addition to the masses of armored columns and the creeping barrage of tens of thousands of missiles and shells. A concept the Russians never discarded despite declining birth rates, especially in russia which has a negative growth rate, and losing most of its population centers after the break up of the USSR. While the world had an overabundance of youth in the early 20th century, the value of human capital in the armies grew exponentially. As technology became more and more complex, sophisticated and deadly via high-precision weapons, replenishing the ranks of the armed forces exponentially more difficult and expensive. The era of being able to sacrifice million upon million to war was as antiquated as a calvary charge and just as ineffective.
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  1873. Interesting, I had only seen on paper, so far, Operation Interflex, Operation Unifier and EUMAM. I had seen that exact quote though. Orbital must not have been mentioned in that though. I can’t put it all, but here are some notes on what I had found: Training Partners, Locations & Numbers EUMAM (EU Military Assistance Mission) * Budget: 123m Euros * Training Locations: Poland, Germany & Bulgaria * Secondary Sites: Estonia (medical training with Norwegian materiel and financial support) * Instructor Origins: Bulgarian, British & American instructors * Program: 15,000 [12,000 Ukrainian soldiers to undergo basic training in rotations of 2-3 months] [2,800 Ukrainian military personnel to receive special training across the three countries in a number of disciplines] [NA additional number to receive NA skills training] Operation Unifier Trainers 1. Australia: 70 - UK/Operation Interflex 2. Canada: 270+ 1. UK/Operation Interflex + Unifier 2. Poland/Operation Unifier 3. Bulgaria 4. Cambodia (sappers) 5. France 6. New Zealand: 149 - UK/Operation Interflex 7. Ireland (sappers) 8. Poland 9. Spain 10. UK 11. US Germany, Bulgaria (and Poland) Where & Trained by Who In Bulgaria/Germany/Poland by US, UK & Bulgaria: 15,000 US Base in Germany (w/British, Canadian & US instructors) and a British base with same instructors) In/By France: 2,000 In/By Spain: 2,400 In UK: 5,550 Minimum Poland : 15,000 spread across Bulgaria Germany): 15,00 ————/ Operation Unifier / Interflex: While at least 7,460+ soldiers were trained by Nov. 11, the objective was to hit a minimum of 10,000+. However, soon they will likely begin to start hitting even greater marks because the program is only starting to really kick into gear now.
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  2454. Reasons Russia Likely Has a Fraction of its Arsenal Working vs What’s Listed on Paper: It is anybody’s guess to the exact numbers, but it would be shocking based on Russia’s GDP, defense budget and everything we’ve seen from the example of their war in Ukraine to their inability to keep a single nuclear carrier working, even 50% of Russia’s officially listed arsenal actually being in missile form and fully functional would be a miracle. Nuclear arsenals are mind bogglingly expensive and complicated to maintain. are mind. With a tiny economy (smaller than Italy’s), a tiny defense budget that likely has 50% of it being lost to corruption eating and many, more pressing military needs requiring cash, there’s no way they can be maintaining anything close to the number of nukes they have on paper. Anyone thinking “What maintenance? Nuclear material lasts forever!” is mistaken. Contrary to popular perception, nuclear warheads have a short shelf life. This is largely due to the tritium in all nuclear warheads. Tritium’s shelf life is very short and it’s incredibly expensive to produce. Even forgetting the tritium, nuclear armaments are wildly expensive to upkeep. If only 10-20% are in order, we and they know that’s 100x enough to be all the deterrent it needs and considering how greedy and corrupt Putin, the military and oligarchs are, why would they spend tens-of-billions on nukes they didn’t need. Hell, when NK got a single dinky, unreliable nuke it was enough for the US to take a strike into NK permanently off the table. Meanwhile, Russia still has, at minimum, hundreds of large nukes. Beyond the cost, their human capital in the atomic area is highly degraded and lacking anything close to the number of personnel to service their arsenal due to: * Soviet experts aging/dying out of the work force or having long ago emigrated * an inability to keep young talent when the West pays so much more and has so much more to offer * A poor record of protecting citizens and personnel from nuclear related mishaps * a vastly inferior education system / system of engineering programs compared to the Soviet era
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  2807. Anyone who wants a ready to go counterfactual/data points for 🇷🇺 bots trying to mislead people about the 🇺🇦 counter offensive, here’s some data points you can copy/paste (data is my job): Even data solely from July tells a far different story to that of the Russian narrative: -Using artillery systems as an example, stats for the month of July as of Saturday show the trend of loss rates trending heavily against Russia based on visually confirmed destroyed / damaged numbers: A. Russia: 40/4 B. Ukraine: 8/3 -Notably, the recently fired General Popov agrees and he was on the hottest front (Zaporizhzhia). His biggest complaints were a lack of counter battery radar/fire, mass troop deaths and a lack of rotation rendering his troops useless). He was shit canned for threatening to bring these facts to Putin. -Not everything is going wrong for Russia though, including in counter battery fire. They’ve immensely improved their CBF response times. They’ve gone from sometimes many hours to being as quick to respond as an average of 3-8 mins in some areas. -Sadly for Russia, once Ukraine gets DPICM, Russia is going to sadly start losing a lot faster. Let’s look at how much more effective cluster munitions are, which Ukraine hasn’t had/used yet (supposedly they did have some, but felt they needed the political cover of being given DPICM by the US before using them) —->13.6 155mm rounds to kill 1 VC soldier —->1.7 cluster rounds to kill 1 VC soldier — ->432 155mm to destroy 8 armored vehicles — ->145 cluster rounds to kill **173 armored vehicles!** -Let’s talk about this supposedly failed counter offensive. Ukraine tried directly storming Russian lines using combined arms tactics (lacking air power or sufficient forward SAMs). They got smacked and unlike Russia learned immediately from their mistake and immediately switched to attrition warfare, which has been going great. And, even so, they’re steadily gaining ground on all fronts. -Russian forces are spread out so thinly, that all it will take is once Ukrainian breakthrough of the main fortified lines to collapse the entire southern region. The bad news for Ukraine is that they haven’t even reached any of those main lines yet. But, let’s look at the most important thing in war: logistics. - *EVERY NUMBER IS GOING THE WRONG WAY FOR RUSSIA* Ukraine has more and better weapons and systems in every single area than they did since the war began. Let’s use artillery as an example: -Ukraine has roughly 400 more artillery systems than they did before the war began.* -Russia meanwhile, has had 1,076 visually confirmed artillery system losses. *However, I will add a caveat here that hurts Ukraine here. That added number comes with a downside, which is that they have a dizzy array of diversity in their systems now, which makes logistics a massive challenge. It is said that up to 1/3rd of their artillery systems are down for maintenance at any one time. -Meanwhile, according to the number of shells Russia has fired and the average EFC service rate of their artillery, they’ve burnt out more than 6,000 guns since the war began. And, surprise surprise, satellite photos show that Russia has brought 5,000+ guns out of deep storage artillery yards. And, because Russia’s artillery is so much less precise and they have no precision MLRS systems, they will have to continue to massively out fire Ukraine to hope to even be half as effective as Ukrainian artillery fire. They don’t have the shells to do this and they’re running out of stockpiled guns too. Moreover, while Ukraine had many more soldiers and weapons systems of every type since the war began, Russia: -has lost Wagner -has lost the vast majority of Spetsnaz / elite soldiers -has lost most of their best pilots and are suffering major rotary attrition and significant fixed wing attrition -has depleted their long range missile stockpiles -has lost the majority of their competent junior officers -has had a huge number of senior commanders killed or maimed and seem insistent on firing and arresting a number of their best commanders too -has no way of replacing any of their depleted systems or munitions in any significant number -has so few soldiers they cannot rotate anyone and studies show that soldiers become drastically less effective after anywhere between 2-5 months without time away from the front Finally, -their economy is in free fall (a ruble is now equivalent in value to a single penny in USD) -Putin doesn’t dare have another mobilization and is dependent on whatever he can scrape together in illegal conscription in backwater villages where the chances of mass unrest or media attention are minimal -It’s clear a significantly sized faction in the FSB and MoD have turned on Putin. If that weren’t the case, the Wagner mutiny isn’t possible So, all-in-all, the worst case scenario is that it’s going to take well into 2024 to clear Russia out of their land. But, even if it takes longer than that, it’s going to happen. Every category of the war is going in the wrong direction for Russia. Putin is unlikely to cling to power if this war is still going on at this level going into 2024 regardless. That last point, admittedly, is speculation. However, I certainly wouldn’t want to be in his shoes going in to another winter that will freeze thousands of Russian soldiers to death. I cannot see a coup from inside the power brokers or a mutiny by starving and freezing troops not taking place at that point.
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  3062. I’ll give you about 20 examples of how everything you said is wrong: Energy was 80% of their GDP and Gazprom was their cash cow. It is now losing billions per year. Because of their lost refinery capacity, they’re having to flood the market with crude to generate enough $ to reimport refined petroleum products. They used to have a healthy share of the global arms export business. Their sales are so non-existent now you couldn’t even see their share in a pie chart. They’ve lost more than a million of their most educated professionals. They’ve stolen international corporations’ assets such as factories and satellites waiting for launch and forced them to sell their businesses for essentially 1 on the dollar, guaranteeing they’ll have no foreign investors for at least a decade and they won’t be investing in expensive infrastructure that can be seized if they do. They used to have nearly 50% of the world’s market in launching space cargo. Now, they have less than 10%. They’re so financially insolvent that for the first time in the history of Russia personal income taxes are being raised and actually enforced. Their stock market just collapsed. Russia is hardly sharing any of the data they used to or are required to. And they cherry pick the only healthy looking items they can find. All their supposed “growth” is based on buying weapons from themselves. That’s not growth. It’d be like saying we’re going to pay our labor 7-8x their normal wages (because of labor shortage) to produce weapons and spend 4-5x the amount on buying foreign components required which mean they cost 10x more than they had and say they’re thriving. Their biggest petroleum customers India, pays them in rupees, which cannot be converted or spent anyway outside India. But India doesn’t produce anything they need. So, it’s like being paid in monopoly $. Do I need to go on?
    2
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  3694. YT keeps deleting my critical posts. The IOC and CCP are two peas in a pod. Check out Norway’s leaked list of IOC demands: -They demand to meet the king prior to the opening ceremony, which shall be followed be a cocktail reception. -Drinks shall be paid for by the Royal Palace or the local organizing committee. -Separate lanes should be created on all roads where IOC members will travel, which are not to be used by regular people or public transportation. -A welcome greeting from the local Olympic boss and the hotel manager should be presented in IOC members’ rooms, along with fruit and cakes of the season. (Seasonal fruit in Oslo in February is a challenge…) -The hotel bar at their hotel should extend its hours “extra late” and the minibars must stock Coke products. -The IOC president shall be welcomed ceremoniously on the runway when he arrives. -The IOC members should have separate entrances and exits to and from the airport. -During the opening and closing ceremonies a fully stocked bar shall be available. During competition days, wine and beer will do at the stadium lounge. -IOC members shall be greeted with a smile when arriving at their hotel. -Meeting rooms shall be kept at exactly 20 degrees Celsius at all times. -The hot food offered in the lounges at venues should be replaced at regular intervals, as IOC members might “risk” having to eat several meals at the same lounge during the Olympics. -“All furniture should be OL-shaped and have Olympic Appearance.“
    2
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  3698. Zero surprise Russia can only exert force by air w/a 70% conscript army, especially when u consider its army’s design: Conscripted Soldiers (Serve 1 Year) -paid less than $25 a month (much less since ruble collapse) -receive 3-4 months of basic training -serve for only a year, during which they are often victimized by their own officers, who often violently haze young recruits -Many receive MREs that expired years ago and insufficient ammunition Contracted Soldiers (3-Year Service) -Paid $1,100 per month -Receive roughly 3x more training -enjoy many opportunities for corruption including siphoning off conscript pay -Are given better equipment Russian Supply Lines Were Designed to Fail: The corrosive effects of the divide between conscript and contract soldier are multiplied by the army’s design, especially in Logistics & Transportations (the most important aspect of armed conflict without doubt). The most critical logistics units (fuel, ammo & food shipments) are heavily staffed by poorly trained conscripts. Incompetency and low morale in these critical units has a snowball effect, crippling front-line units. Most of the tanks, AVs, etc. destroyed were already abandoned after both or either getting lost and running out of fuel. The reason six Russian generals have already died is because they are finding it necessary to fight on or at least be near the front lines to threaten punishment to get their men to do anything. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are used to fighting and will defend their homes until death.”
    2
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  3911.    Some families will go broke from spoiled children who can’t even manage their money, but the truly wealthy have too much money for their children to ever truly lose it all. You’re right, if someone is from a trailer park and had a lot of capital, they might not be able to use it. However, most people with vast wealth have their children well educated and it does not take hard work from there to keep expanding your wealth. You are right that the initial generator of that wealth is an exceptional person who deserves massive wealth because they’ve built a new business that has created new jobs and new wealth for many people. That’s why I pointed out here or in another comment thread nearby that it is new businesses that created 90% of new jobs. I believe it’s after businesses just five years and older account for only a tiny fraction of new jobs. Sure, there are a few companies that keeping adding thousands of jobs for a decade or more, but then then usually contract and begin going the opposite way. It’s the people who get to already establish money making machines and somehow the board thinks they need to pay them hundreds of millions to manage the company. At that level, you’re lore of an administrator than anything. The idea of the visionary CEO revitalizing a huge company with great ideas is a joke. It’s usually just restructuring and allowing existing employees to execute great ideas. That’s how badly run these companies can quickly get after the founder dies, retires or sells. The buyers/shareholders coast off existing momentum to make huge amounts until the company’s momentum runs out due to competitors catching up, the incompetency of management and lack of investment or over investment on stupid things.
    2
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  4567. Not at all. It’s just that the world’s tolerance level for danger has become so low. Cause this topic has come up in so many places I’ve just saved and combined responses to a bunch of a reactions I’ve seen. [they should ban wet racing at Spa] I’d say that’s up to the drivers to decide. Besides, there hasn’t been a single death at Spa in the modern F1 era. Should we arrest people for free climbing or ban the Isle of Man TT? [F1 wouldn’t have raced in those conditions] That’s not saying much. Since 2019 and especially under Wittich, the tiniest new variable can and usually does trigger an SC. I don’t see any reason why there shouldn’t be races if the tires can clear enough water to avoid hydroplaning. F1 has lost its way by letting people who have never raced before turn it into the most neutered series. It used to represent the pinnacle of not just tech and drivers, but driving in varying conditions. We race in full wet conditions in both SCCA and my vintage racing series without Techpro barriers, kevlar survival cells and medical helicopters. One of the reasons we race is because of the danger. Not for the danger, but knowing the fact that racing well involves some level of danger/risk (you can race with no risk if you don’t care about winning) [they’ve radically changed that section multiple times to make it safer. should more be done?] Sadly, racing involves risk no matter how much runoff, how many SAFER barriers, etc. Ironically, there’s much more risk in both lower formula levels and even amateur racing because they typically don’t have safety cars for gravels or wet weather and they don’t have anything like the protection of F1 survival cells.
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  4966.  @mintydog06  The only good news is, if people think Russia’s troops sucked, just wait until they see China’s (not to mention the tactical side/ lack of troop initiative too due to top down command structure, which is 10x worse in China). Besides the brass and top officers, the PLA’s army is made up of people whose only choices were starve/go homeless or sign up to the army in order to be able to eat. Soldiers are looked at as the lowest rung of society in China and if a kid who grew up in Shenzhen or Beijing and went to college said he was going to join the army his mother and aunts would LITERALLY tie him down and berate him for being a selfish, worthless excuse for a son. Chinese soldiers assigned to UN Missions have been notorious for their cowardice. They allowed hundreds of women they were supposed to be protecting raped and murdered within 50 feet of their walls after fleeing and hiding behind them at the first sound of gunfire. China’s society is designed around making money and their own personal family unit. Despite their wealth, they are last in the world in terms of charitable donations per capita. Self-sacrifice for anything besides money and close family is not in their character let alone these spoiled little emperors who are treated as the center of the universe. If China isn’t able to win the war exclusively in the air and at sea, they will lose. Because their troops will absolutely get slaughtered like headless chickens trying to advance up the beaches against even half way competent defense forces.
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  5287.  @Jimmy-ye3wg  I’ll give you about 20 examples of how everything you said is wrong: Energy was 80% of their GDP and Gazprom was their cash cow. It is now losing billions per year. Because of their lost refinery capacity, they’re having to flood the market with crude to generate enough $ to reimport refined petroleum products. They used to have a healthy share of the global arms export business. Their sales are so non-existent now you couldn’t even see their share in a pie chart. They’ve lost more than a million of their most educated professionals. They’ve stolen international corporations’ Russian assets, guaranteeing they’ll have no foreign investors for at least a decade and they won’t be investing in expensive infrastructure that can be seized if they do. They used to have nearly 50% of the world’s market in launching space cargo. Now, they have less than 10%. They’re so financially insolvent that for the first time in the history of Russia personal income taxes are being raised and actually enforced. Their stock market just collapsed. Russia is hardly sharing any of the data they used to or are required to. And they cherry pick the only healthy looking items they can find. All their supposed “growth” is based on buying weapons from themselves. That’s not growth. It’d be like saying we’re going to pay our labor 7-8x their normal wages (because of labor shortage) to produce weapons and spend 4-5x the amount on buying foreign components required which mean they cost 10x more than they had and say they’re thriving. Their biggest petroleum customers India, pays them in rupees, which cannot be converted or spent anyway outside India. But India doesn’t produce anything they need. So, it’s like being paid in monopoly $. Do I need to go on?
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  5671. Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm. Their allies, including Washington, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working. Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. While it hangs back from supporting Ukraine in a fight to defend its democracy from invasion by a tyrant, it has no qualms about selling to authoritarian regimes, like those in the Middle East, where it does brisk business selling weapons to countries such as Egypt and Qatar. Despite everything that’s happened over the past year, Berlin is still holding out hope that Ukraine can somehow patch things up with Russia so that Germany can resume business as usual and switch the gas back on. Even if Germany ends up sending tanks to Ukraine — as many now anticipate — it will deliver as few as it can get away with and only after exhausting every possible option to delay.   Much attention in recent years has focused on Nord Stream 2, the ill-fated Russo-German natural gas project. Yet tensions between the U.S. and Germany over the latter’s entanglement with Russian energy interests date back to the late 1950s, when it first began supplying the Soviet Union with large-diameter piping. Throughout the Cold War, Germany’s involvement with NATO was driven by a strategy to take advantage of the protection the alliance afforded, delivering no more than the absolute minimum, while also expanding commercial relations with the Soviets. In 1955, the weekly Die Zeit described what it called the “fireside fantasy of West German industry” to normalize trade relations with the Soviet Union. Within years, that dream became a reality, driven in large measure by Chancellor Willy Brandt’s détente policies, known as Ostpolitik. That’s one reason the Germans so feared U.S. President Ronald Reagan and his hard line against the Soviets. Far from welcoming his “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall” demand, both the German public and industry were terrified by it, worried that Reagan would upset the apple cart and destroy their business in the east.   By the time the Berlin Wall fell a couple of years later, West German exports to the Soviet Union had reached nearly 12 billion deutsche mark, a record. That’s why Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm. Germany’s dithering over aid to Ukraine is a logical extension of a strategy that has served its economy well from the Cold War to the decision to block Ukraine’s NATO accession in 2008 to Nord Stream. Just last week, as the Russians were raining terror on Dnipro, the minister president of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, called for the repair of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline so that Germany “keeps the option” to purchase Russian gas after war ends. The money Germany has saved on defense has enabled it to finance one of the world’s most generous welfare states. When Germany was under pressure from allies a few years ago to finally meet NATO’s 2 percent of GDP spending target, then-Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel called the goal “absurd.” And from a German perspective, he was right; why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? Of course, the Germans have had a lot of help milking, especially from the U.S. American presidents have been chastising Germany over its lackluster contribution to the Western alliance going as far back as Dwight D. Eisenhower, only to do nothing about it. The exception that proves the rule is Donald Trump, whose plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Germany was thwarted by his election loss. Joe Biden, eager to reverse the diplomatic damage inflicted during the Trump years, reversed course and has gone out of his way to show his appreciation for all things German. Biden’s decision to court the Germans instead of castigating them for failing to meet their commitments taught Berlin that it merely needs to wait out crises in the transatlantic relationship and the problems will fix themselves. Under pressure from Trump to buy American liquefied natural gas, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed in 2018 to support the construction of the necessary infrastructure. After Trump, those plans were put on ice, only to revive them amid the current energy crisis. By virtue of its size and geographical position at the center of Europe, Germany will always be important for the U.S., if not as a true ally, at least as an erstwhile partner and staging ground for the American military. Who cares that the Bundeswehr has become a punchline or that Germany remains years away from meeting its NATO spending targets? In Washington’s view, Germany might be a bad ally, but at least it’s America’s bad ally. And no one understands the benefits of that status better than the Germans themselves.
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  6720. Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm: Their allies, including DC, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working. Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. While it hangs back from supporting Ukraine in a fight to defend its democracy from invasion by a tyrant, it has no qualms about selling to authoritarian regimes, like those in the Middle East, where it does brisk business selling weapons to countries such as Egypt and Qatar. Despite everything that’s happened over the past year, Berlin is still holding out hope that Ukraine can somehow patch things up with Russia so that Germany can resume business as usual and switch the gas back on. Even if Germany ends up sending tanks to Ukraine — as many now anticipate — it will deliver as few as it can get away with and only after exhausting every possible option to delay.   Much attention in recent years has focused on Nord Stream 2, the ill-fated Russo-German natural gas project. Yet tensions between the U.S. and Germany over the latter’s entanglement with Russian energy interests date back to the late 1950s, when it first began supplying the Soviet Union with large-diameter piping. Throughout the Cold War, Germany’s involvement with NATO was driven by a strategy to take advantage of the protection the alliance afforded, delivering no more than the absolute minimum, while also expanding commercial relations with the Soviets. In 1955, the weekly Die Zeit described what it called the “fireside fantasy of West German industry” to normalize trade relations with the Soviet Union. Within years, that dream became a reality, driven in large measure by Chancellor Willy Brandt’s détente policies, known as Ostpolitik. That’s one reason the Germans so feared U.S. President Ronald Reagan and his hard line against the Soviets. Far from welcoming his “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall” demand, both the German public and industry were terrified by it, worried that Reagan would upset the apple cart and destroy their business in the east.   By the time the Berlin Wall fell a couple of years later, West German exports to the Soviet Union had reached nearly 12 billion deutsche mark, a record. That’s why Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm. Germany’s dithering over aid to Ukraine is a logical extension of a strategy that has served its economy well from the Cold War to the decision to block Ukraine’s NATO accession in 2008 to Nord Stream. Just last week, as the Russians were raining terror on Dnipro, the minister president of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, called for the repair of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which was blown up by unknown saboteurs last year, so that Germany “keeps the option” to purchase Russian gas after war ends. The money Germany has saved on defense has enabled it to finance one of the world’s most generous welfare states. When Germany was under pressure from allies a few years ago to finally meet NATO’s 2 percent of GDP spending target, then-Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel called the goal “absurd.” And from a German perspective, he was right; why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? Of course, the Germans have had a lot of help milking, especially from the U.S. American presidents have been chastising Germany over its lackluster contribution to the Western alliance going as far back as Dwight D. Eisenhower, only to do nothing about it. The exception that proves the rule is Donald Trump, whose plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Germany was thwarted by his election loss. Joe Biden, eager to reverse the diplomatic damage inflicted during the Trump years, reversed course and has gone out of his way to show his appreciation for all things German. Biden’s decision to court the Germans instead of castigating them for failing to meet their commitments taught Berlin that it merely needs to wait out crises in the transatlantic relationship and the problems will fix themselves. Under pressure from Trump to buy American liquefied natural gas, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed in 2018 to support the construction of the necessary infrastructure. After Trump, those plans were put on ice, only to revive them amid the current energy crisis. By virtue of its size and geographical position at the center of Europe, Germany will always be important for the U.S., if not as a true ally, at least as an erstwhile partner and staging ground for the American military. Who cares that the Bundeswehr has become a punchline or that Germany remains years away from meeting its NATO spending targets? In Washington’s view, Germany might be a bad ally, but at least it’s America’s bad ally. And no one understands the benefits of that
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  8268. Meanwhile, Fox News is telling its viewers Biden bombed the pipeline and they’re lapping it up. Because they’re not even aware Russia had already cut off the gas or the contractual penalties Putin was facing, they just figure “why would he blow up his own pipeline.” Using a January clip of Biden promising Nord 2 would be shut down if Russia invaded, MAGATS are “100% sure it was Biden.” Biden Derangement Syndrome definitely exists. 1. Russia saved itself tens of billions it was going to owe for breaching its contractual obligation to deliver natural gas, but with the pipeline now busted and impossible to prove it was them, they’ll be off the hook. 2. Putin is literally fighting for his life with hundreds of thousands running from the country to avoid mobilization and facing certain defeat in Ukraine, which combined will get him removed and killed. By blowing the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines, the only pipeline from Russia to Europe is under Ukraine and Ukraine has turned it off. Putin hope Russia can hold their lines until late in winter and that Europe will get so desperate for gas that they will pressure Ukraine into a ceasefire/peace, so the pipeline can be turned back on. That would allow him to escape without losing. 3. He wants the world to fear him and take his nuclear threats seriously. Blowing up the pipeline is an escalation that will make many take that more seriously. Finally, Russia and Europe were already cut off from Russian gas and pledged to get completely off Russian NG by 2024. So, why would Biden need to blow it up and why now? It makes no sense.
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  8950. Some additional interesting facts on the deep rot: *Germany blocked NATO’s ascension to NATO in 2008, blocked a meaningful EU sanctions package on Russia in 2014 and the SPD has always viewed the Baltic states as not deserving of independence and an annoying impediment to its work with Russia. *News this month that the number of German soldiers declaring themselves conscientious objectors rose fivefold in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine created little more than a ripple in Germany. For many Germans it’s perfectly natural for members of the Bundeswehr, the army, to renege on the pledge they made to defend their country; if Germans themselves. don’t want to fight, why should their troops? Indeed, in Germany, a soldier isn’t a soldier but a “citizen in uniform.” It’s an apposite euphemism for a populace that has lived comfortably under the U.S. security umbrella for more than seven decades and goes a long way toward explaining how Germany became NATO’s problem child since the war in Ukraine began, delaying and frustrating the Western effort to get Ukraine the weaponry it needs to defend itself against an unprovoked Russian onslaught. *In the opening hours of the war, Germany’s finance minister laughed at the Ukrainian ambassador’s request for aid because ‘sending aid would be a waste of because your country will be done in hours.’ *Germany is STILL talking (as in this week) about their hope to restore normal relations and energy imports w/Russia once the war is “resolved.” *Germany’s allies, including Washington, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working. Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. Gerhard Schroder was literally Scholz’s mentor and Putin is the god father to one of his children, he was on the gazprom board, STILL won’t condemn Putin. You don’t get more transparently corrupt.
    1
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  9095. Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm: Their allies, including Washington, often ascribe German recalcitrance to a knee-jerk pacifism born of the lessons learned from its “dark past.” In other words, the German strategy — do nothing, blame the Nazis — is working. Of course, Germany’s conscience doesn’t really drive its foreign policy, its corporations do. While it hangs back from supporting Ukraine in a fight to defend its democracy from invasion by a tyrant, it has no qualms about selling to authoritarian regimes, like those in the Middle East, where it does brisk business selling weapons to countries such as Egypt and Qatar. Despite everything that’s happened over the past year, Berlin is still holding out hope that Ukraine can somehow patch things up with Russia so that Germany can resume business as usual and switch the gas back on. Even if Germany ends up sending tanks to Ukraine — as many now anticipate — it will deliver as few as it can get away with and only after exhausting every possible option to delay.   Much attention in recent years has focused on Nord Stream 2, the ill-fated Russo-German natural gas project. Yet tensions between the U.S. and Germany over the latter’s entanglement with Russian energy interests date back to the late 1950s, when it first began supplying the Soviet Union with large-diameter piping. Throughout the Cold War, Germany’s involvement with NATO was driven by a strategy to take advantage of the protection the alliance afforded, delivering no more than the absolute minimum, while also expanding commercial relations with the Soviets. In 1955, the weekly Die Zeit described what it called the “fireside fantasy of West German industry” to normalize trade relations with the Soviet Union. Within years, that dream became a reality, driven in large measure by Chancellor Willy Brandt’s détente policies, known as Ostpolitik. That’s one reason the Germans so feared U.S. President Ronald Reagan and his hard line against the Soviets. Far from welcoming his “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall” demand, both the German public and industry were terrified by it, worried that Reagan would upset the apple cart and destroy their business in the east.   By the time the Berlin Wall fell a couple of years later, West German exports to the Soviet Union had reached nearly 12 billion deutsche mark, a record. That’s why Germany’s handling of Ukraine isn’t a departure from the norm; it is the norm. Germany’s dithering over aid to Ukraine is a logical extension of a strategy that has served its economy well from the Cold War to the decision to block Ukraine’s NATO accession in 2008 to Nord Stream. Just last week, as the Russians were raining terror on Dnipro, the minister president of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, called for the repair of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which was blown up by unknown saboteurs last year, so that Germany “keeps the option” to purchase Russian gas after war ends. The money Germany has saved on defense has enabled it to finance one of the world’s most generous welfare states. When Germany was under pressure from allies a few years ago to finally meet NATO’s 2 percent of GDP spending target, then-Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel called the goal “absurd.” And from a German perspective, he was right; why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? Of course, the Germans have had a lot of help milking, especially from the U.S. American presidents have been chastising Germany over its lackluster contribution to the Western alliance going as far back as Dwight D. Eisenhower, only to do nothing about it. The exception that proves the rule is Donald Trump, whose plan to withdraw most U.S. troops from Germany was thwarted by his election loss. Joe Biden, eager to reverse the diplomatic damage inflicted during the Trump years, reversed course and has gone out of his way to show his appreciation for all things German. Biden’s decision to court the Germans instead of castigating them for failing to meet their commitments taught Berlin that it merely needs to wait out crises in the transatlantic relationship and the problems will fix themselves. Under pressure from Trump to buy American liquefied natural gas, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed in 2018 to support the construction of the necessary infrastructure. After Trump, those plans were put on ice, only to revive them amid the current energy crisis. By virtue of its size and geographical position at the center of Europe, Germany will always be important for the U.S., if not as a true ally, at least as an erstwhile partner and staging ground for the American military. Who cares that the Bundeswehr has become a punchline or that Germany remains years away from meeting its NATO spending targets? In Washington’s view, Germany might be a bad ally, but at least it’s America’s bad ally. And no one understands the benefits of that
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  9986.  @Briguy1027  This explains why (I pasted it) Layered Air Defense So, why do man-portable air defense systems act as a strategic constraint for tactical aviation? Let's first define the conceptual apparatus: MANPADS is a highly mobile compact short-range air defense system. It is generally accepted that, on average, weapons of this type are dangerous at a distance of up to 4 km and an altitude of up to 5.5 km (these are very average values, because everything depends on the generation of a particular MANPADS, its characteristics, operator training, firing position, etc.). d.). Why can a weapon with such seemingly modest characteristics somehow complicate the actions of tactical aviation? I have repeatedly written (and will write again and again) that the armed forces are a mechanism, and weapons systems are part of this mechanism, which, in interaction with each other, should create restrictions for the enemy at all levels, up to the strategic one. The closest example is the ongoing hostilities in Ukraine. The Ukrainian armed forces had 52 air defense divisions, however, ground-based air defense systems themselves have a rather low level of combat stability. Acting as a separate element of the system, they are unable to stop a powerful air offensive - aviation, due to its characteristics, has more options for adapting even in the face of fierce opposition from ground-based air defense. Under such conditions, the Russian Air Force (given their numerous technical limitations: the lack of a reconnaissance circuit, electronic warfare air platforms, effective high-precision weapons, training, doctrinal competence) would switch to using the decades-old practice of low-altitude breakthrough tactics - the most dangerous for ground-based air defense, whose radars are extremely limited detect targets in relative proximity to the terrain surface. Ultimately, after a few months of hostilities, Ukraine's air defense would be depleted, losing at least 55-65% of its pre-war strength. However, this did not happen. Why? Mass deliveries of MANPADS. The active saturation of the Ukrainian army with numerous anti-aircraft platoons did not give the Russian Air Force the opportunity to implement the tactics of low-altitude breakthroughs, while medium and high altitudes remained covered by both military and object air defense, which did not suffer serious losses. At one time, the United States faced a similar problem during the Vietnam War (super-saturation of the Vietnamese battle formations with anti-aircraft artillery, coupled with the constant threat from the S-75 air defense system) and Israel (the Yom Kippur War became an extremely difficult test for Israeli aviation, faced with a powerful combined defense from S-75 air defense systems, covered by a large number of Shilka ZSUs). MANPADS perform the same role that small-caliber anti-aircraft artillery previously performed - they cover low altitudes, making any air operations to search for and destroy stationary air defense systems extremely risky, which, accordingly, in the system does not give aviation the opportunity to operate at an operational depth, limiting its capabilities only to combat work directly on the front line in the “hit-retreat” mode (this is what we have been observing for the last 2-2.5 months). Summing up, the scheme can be described as follows: ➖ SAMs do not allow aviation to operate freely at medium and high altitudes, forcing it to low ones; ➖ Saturation of MANPADS troops does not allow aviation to operate at altitudes up to 5.5 km, limits it in low-altitude maneuvers and does not allow carrying out operations to destroy air defense systems without a high degree of risk. I note that MANPADS, for all their merits (compactness, mobility and ease of development - for example, Stinger, although not perfect, but you can master it in a couple of lessons) do not replace anti-aircraft artillery - it is still more than necessary and relevant as part of battle formations , although it requires qualified military personnel, well-established logistics and has a higher cost. We will talk about the existing methods of confronting layered air defense next time
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