Comments by "Frank DeMaris" (@kemarisite) on "Drachinifel" channel.

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  368. @2:10:37 we do, in fact, have data for comparing the 16" "super heavy" shell to a standard weight shell. We have two 16"/45 guns in US service that are remarkably similar guns except for the shells. The Colorado class ships used the Mark 5 or Mark 8 gun with the 2,240 lb Mark 5 shell, while the fast battleships (except the Iowas) used the Mark 6 gun with the 2,700 pound Mark 8 AP shell. Chamber volume for the two guns was slightly different, with the Mark 5 and Mark 8 guns having 1.3% more chamber volume but being much heavier because they were older designs. The larger chamber volume allows the Mark 5 and 8 guns another 10 pounds of propellant, or about a 1.8% increase in propellant. Combined with the lighter shell, that gives the Mark 5 and 8 guns another 200 ft/sec muzzle velocity with a full charge. Despite the higher muzzle velocity, the same USN empirical formula shows the Mark 8 shell is going only 50 ft/sec slower by the time it reaches 15,000 yards, and it has a full inch of additional penetration against belt armor at that range, or half an inch of deck armor. Even at the muzzle for a contact shot, the formula says the Mark 8 shell has a small fraction of an inch of additional penetration over the Mark 5 shell at the higher velocity. At ranges over 15,000 yards the situation just keeps getting worse for the lighter shell, with the heavier Mark 8 shell striking with the same velocity at 25,000 yards and still managing an extra 1.3" of belt penetration or 0.98" of deck penetration. The one advantage the Mark 5 shell has is a flatter trajectory, striking at 16.33 degrees at 20,000 yards compared with 17.9 degrees, and arriving about two seconds sooner, so the chances of hitting with any particular shell may be ever so slightly greater.
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  550. For the alternative of Yamato at Guadalcanal in mid-Novembet, remember that Kirishima historically took a bunch of "shorts" that hit below the armor belt, so if Yamato takes the same hits it may survive but be extremely slow if it doesn't sink. Envision what happened to Hiei during the day on the 13th and Yamato eventually being scuttled. To clarify, I'm envision Yamato replacing both Hiei and Kirishima, and from a fuel perspective that's just about right as Yamato burns 14 tons of fuel an hour at 16 knots while two Kongos burn just over 18 tons total. Yamato also has a lower top speed, so the high-speed run under cover of darkness has less margin for error for Yamato. I'd expect Yamato to pull back far enough (as Kirishima did) to be out of range of air attack on the 13th except possibly for the dawn search, so I'm not expecting any bomb hits during the day on the 13th. For the battle on the 13th, Hiei was the focus of attention and also did quite a bit of damage to the US squadron; Kirishima contributed quite a bit less. Yamato has a good shot at crippling Helena (the last uncrippled US cruiser) and finishing off cripples like Portland and Juneau if it sticks around to do so, but that risks more air attacks given its slower speed exiting the battle area. Historically, Kirishima still had incindiary shrapnel ready on the 14th, so most of its hits on South Dakota weren't a threat. There is one 14" AP hit to South Dakota's #2 main battery barbette, and you'd think that replacing that hit with an 18" would kill that turret completely. However, that shell first struck a hatch cover and started yawing, so by the time it hit the barbette it was sideways and I wouldn't expect that to penetrate the barbette armor. If Yamato is distracted by Washington at the same time, right after this hit, then South Dakota still has a good chance to get away. Whether Washington gets away depends a great deal on whether Yamato scores any hits that affect her speed. If Washington gets slowed down, the the Japanese cruisers can go after her with torpedoes and finish her off. Otherwise, I think Washington has a good chance to get away as it historically did, leaving Yamato badly hurting for the Henderson Field/Enterprise aircraft to finish off. Yes, a lot of this assumes certain hits that historically happened are replicated. Yamato would better resist San Francisco's hit that historically wrecked Hiei's steering gear. South Dakota would not lose the #2 turret to a sideways 18" shell any more than to a sideways 14" shell.
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  644. Short version of my question: is the conventional wisdom that Admiral King bears a lot of blame for the losses of the American coast in early 1942 fair, or does the criticism demand that King take certain actions that were outside his authority? The Timeghost WW2 channel recently touched on the Second Happy Time in early WW2, leading to posts repeating the conventional wisdom that Admiral King bears a lot of responsibility for the ships lost and crews killed because he did not organize convoys, did not black out cities, lighthouses, and other aids to navigation, and rejected British advice to this effect because of his Anglophobia. I find myself having to question this conventional wisdom for a couple of reasons. First, what authority does the US Navy and its Commander in Chief/Chief of Naval Operations have to order a civilian ship captain to refrain from sailing once his cargo is loaded? If the ship has been chartered by the Navy to carry a particular cargo somewhere, then sure the Navy has a say in when and how that cargo is delivered, and the Navy also operated some of its own cargo ships later in the war, but I'm talking about Captain Harvey of the SS Farquarth with a load of lumber going from Portland, Maine to Charleston, South Carolina. I don't believe the Navy has the authority to order Captain Harvey to wait a week for the rest of the ships in the convoy (although the Coast Guard might have that authority). Was there any law or regulations giving the Navy that authority, and when was it adopted? Second, the lighthouses and aids to navigation are under the authority of the US Coast Guard, which was part of the Navy Department since WW but under its own chain of command under Admiral Russel Waesche (during WW2), who would be answerable to Secretary of the Navy Knox. It seems to me it would be up to the Navy Secretary and Coast Guard to black out the lighthouses and shut down aids to navigation, in addition to possibly having the authority to regulate civilian ship sailings and form convoys. Third, blackouts for coastal cities is completely outside the Navy's authority, or anyone else in the federal government. Even after the Office of Civil Defense was established, the blackout "orders" are actually requests signed by the state governors and local military post commanders. Finally, King was notoriously impatient with fools, officers who did not measure up to his standards in carrying out their assignments (part of the infamous "He hated everyone" legend). He had prior experience in WW1 in the UK and I don't see any way he could have been ignorant of the importance of the UK having adopted the convoy system in 1917. His career included a number of postings associated with submarines following WW1, including a couple of operations to salvage submarines that had sunk in accidents (S-4 and S-51), so even if he never commanded a submarine himself its hard to see how some institutional knowledge about convoys making life more difficult for submariners would not enter into his awareness. I see that Michael Gannon blamed King for failing to take British advice, and it appears other historians have accepted Gannon's portrayal of King, but for the reasons given above I have to wonder if this is really a fair criticism. It seems to me that much of the criticism, even accepting a mindless Anglophobia, blames King for not doing things that he had no authority to do anyway. The Coast Guard had authority over lighthouses and aids to navigation, and may have had the authority to prevent civilian ships from sailing outside of convoys, and no one at the federal level had the authority to order coastal cities to be blacked out. King could obviously have suggested to Knox that the Admiral Waesche should be ordered to shut down lighthouses and impose a convoy system, but I can't imagine King being able to do so with sufficient diplomacy to not raise questions about what the CNO is doing that he has time to worry about how the Coast Guard is doing its job. I've been a department head and have some idea how fine a line that can be to walk. I'm open to being persuaded that King had the de jure authority to do some of these things, but at this point it appears to me he is criticized for respecting the limits of his authority and expecting others to do their jobs as diligently as he does his.
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  726.  @stanklepoot  do I really think that, for certain? No, I am raising it as a possibility considering all the events of the intervening two years. Remember, Darlan was unavailable in July of 1940, but back on duty soon after the attack. Giving the fleet to the Germans was a non-starter under Darlan. Two years later, he's in North Africa taking over as governor of Free French North Africa, and then being assassinated. By late 1942 it was clear that German defeat was only a question of time, and the rapacity of the German occupation was well known throughout Vichy France. The fleet has sat essentially idle in Toulon for over two years while the British kept fighting. I think it's possible that the French (not because they're French but because they're human) consoled themselves with the knowledge that, by keeping the fleet out of German hands, they were in some way proving that the British were wrong not to trust them, and that this contributed to the successful scuttling. Not that the Germans gave themselves much chance of successfully seizing the French fleet. Case Anton began on November 11, but the Germans didn't get any force into Toulon to get control of the ships until the morning of the 27th. The Italians were long since reduced to doing almost nothing with their fleet because of fuel shortages, so adding to French ships without any additional fuel supplies would accomplish nothing in the Med. The German heavy units were reduced to conducting half-hearted sorties to try to intercept Arctic convoys, and the French fleet wouldn't make it to Norway even if it was seized and sent that direction. While Operation Lila was officially a failure, I would honestly be surprised if the Germans were all that distressed by the result. Scuttled or or rotting in Italian ports, as long as they're not with the Free French it's all the same.
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  803.  @TheKingofbrooklin  it may simply be a philosophical issue. The point of all or nothing armor is to preserve the ship, ensuring that the maximum amount of armor is protecting the vital reserve buoyancy and magazine/machinery spaces. However, it does mean that large areas of the ship are completely unprotected and any crew in those areas are unprotected, and I've seen a number of comments lamenting the fate of those unprotected crewmen on a ship with 12-14" of armor and nothing but the 1" shell plate protecting their own skins. The simple fact is that a distributed armor scheme will either weigh a lot more than an AoN scheme for the same thickness of belt and turret armor, or it will have thinner belt and turret armor to compensate for the additional armor weight elsewhere. In order to say that one is "better" than the other, one first has to decide what standard one is applying. If, as here, we talk about the efficiency of the design, then a distributed schemewill, by definition, be less efficient because it will either have thinner armor over the vitals or weigh more with the same maximum armor. One could define another standard by which to evaluate the armor scheme, and the distributed scheme might be "better" than AoN by that standard, but the standard would have to be clearly defined and then one would have to come up with a way to evaluate it. Maybe it eventually turns out that a distributed armor scheme leads to fewer casualties among the crew when the ship is damaged but not sunk (and crew survivability is the standard chosen for evalustion), but one would have to do a lot of resesrch and analysis to make that argument and the data pool may simply be too small to strongly support a conclusion.
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  963. Even if we blame Hoover for the deaths of all 600 of Juneau's crew (rather than the 100 or so who made it into the water when she was sunk), he still got fewer men killed needlessly than Halsey did in Typhoon Cobra (790). Hoover had two intact ships (Fletcher and Helena) escorting three, now two cripples (San Francisco and Sterrett). He had just witnessed Juneau vanish in a massive magazine detonation. Comparable explosions had left 0 survivors of about 900 crew (HMS Defence), 6 of 1026 (HMS Invincible), 18 of 1,284 (HMS Queen Mary), 3 of 1,019 (HMS Indefatigable), and 3 of 1,421 (HMS Hood). There was simply no reason to believe there might be any noticeable number of survivors left in the water after that detonation. In the mean time, Hoover was still escorting two cripples away from the battle area and a known sub contact. One can argue that Hoover should have signaled Juneau's loss and location by radio, rather than signaling a patrolling B-17 by lamp, since the Japanese sub had obviously seen him and made radio detection moot, but it really is unfounded to say he should have detached one of his two functional ships to prosecute the sub contact and/or search for survivors, or had one of his float planes go back to look and then stop to recover it (possibly) in front of another Japanese sub since several were believed to be lurking in the area. The Juneau survivors were rescued November 20-21, while Halsey relieved Hoover of command of Helena on November 23. It seems clear that Halsey relieved Hoover not because of Hoover's actions and knowledge available at the time, but only with the benefit of hindsight that there had been a significant number of survivors in the water and the failure to rescue those survivors promptly was embarrassing to Halsey.
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  990. This is a question that pops up every few videos, at least as far as translating antitank munitions into anti-ship concepts. The basic issue with that is how big ships are. With a tank, all kinds of important stuff like ammo and crew are right behind the armor, so just the shot itself and resultant spall can be enough. With a ship, outside of the turrets and armored conning tower, there is a lot of room behind the armor for reserve buoyancy to keep a damaged ship afloat, so once you get through the armor you need a significant behind armor effect. You'll never sink a ship by putting fist sized holes through the top above the waterline, outside of catastrophically bad ammunition safety in the turrets like the British battlecruisers at Jutland. That said, there were a few interesting projectile variants put out during the war. The French and Japanese developed non-standard AP shells that were optimized for underwater travel with the intention they would land short and punch into the target under the belt (see USS Boise for the one know example of this working). You mentioned the Japanese heavy AA shells, but the Germans developed something similar for the 15" guns on Tirpitz. Both the US and Japan developed small-ish caliber anti-submarine projectiles with flattened noses for shooting at diving or just submerged submarines at to a few thousand yards, although the US developed theirs in the 50s for the 5"/38. The US also had chaff and white phosphorus projectiles available for the 5"/38 as variants on the standard illumination round or "star shell".
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  1034.  @vB34styy  I think I understand what you're getting at, at least somewhat. If one large surface combatant today miraculously appeared somewhere between 10 and 15 miles from a WW2 battleship and both immediately commenced hostilities, the modern ship would have a big advantage in one aspect, since missiles actively seek their target while the battleship is taking some time to get on target. It wont necessarily take a lot of time (West Virginia at least bracketed, and probably hit, Yamashiro on the first salvo at just over 20,000 yards), but the the missiles will be s boring hits from the outset. The question then becomes what kind of missiles and warheads is it equipped with. Older sea-skimming missiles will just plow into the armor belt and not really accomplish anything unless they happen to hit above the belt. Newer missiles that conduct a popup attack will do damage to the superstructure but accomplish nothing below the armored deck. However, some of the Soviet anti ship missiles have shaped charge warheads that will go through the armor belt if they hit it squarely. However, some WW2 battleships have an exterior decapping plate that will set off the shaped charge warhead and give the blast room to lose focus before it encounters the main belt. If that happens, then everything under armor will be pretty safe. At the same time, battleship AP shell are likely to pass right through without detonating, whereas HE/HC shells will be devastating if they hit, but a battleship with the superstructure/radars/rangefinders wrecked by missiles is going to have a difficult time hitting anything. So I think the most likely thing is a mission kill on the battleship with no actual ability to threaten it with sinking, but the battleship could get lucky and the specific details about the missiles could change everything.
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  1109.  @kimleechristensen2679  the Swordfish carried the 18" Mark XII torpedo with a 388 lb TNT warhead. Remember that the strike that crippled Bismark inflicted a second hit that only did minor damage against the torpedo defense system. The 21" Mark IX torpedoes on the cruisers and destroyers carried much larger warheads with 750 lb TNT. By comparison, the Japanese 17.7" Type 91 carried a 331 lb warhead from 1933 and the Mod 2 carried a 452 lb warhead from 1941; both versions were used against Repulse and Prince of Wales. PoW was lost to a hit in her propeller shaft area that allowed the shaft turn thrash and tear open the glans that maintained watertight integrity. A later hit damaged the propeller shafts on the opposite side. Repulse did not have modern torpedo defenses and was much more vulnerable to small aerial torpedoes. I think we can safely say that the Swordfish might have harrassed Bismark over the. ourse of the day, inflicting damage that would further impair Bismark's ability to maneuver and fight. Such hits might eventually allow them to conduct a strike specifically aiming for further damage near the shafts where the torpedo defense would be weakest. However, those torpedoes are really too small to penetrate the torpedo defense system (although my brief search hasn't turned up any information on Bismark's TDS). In 1944-45 when the US carriers sank Musashi and Yamato, the Mark 13 torpedo carried 600 lb of HBX. Also, Ark Royal was only able to send 15 Swordfish after Bismark and that number would go down during the day from damage, operational losses, and aircrew fatigue. So rather than Ark Royal loitering and sending out repeated airstrikes to sink theBismark, I think it's more likely that Ark Royal harasses Bismark all day and the cruisers and destroyers swarm Bismark the following night to sink her with their heavier torpedoes.
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  1266.  @Tevildo  I'm afraid you've misapplied some of the lessons from tanks, where kinetic energy is absolutely essential both today and 80 years ago during the war. Tanks have a comparatively small internal volume, so anything punching through the armor is likely to damage something important. Ships are much (much) bigger, so that bursting charge is absolutely essential to doing meaningful damage. The British 6" SAP shell carries 3.75 lb of Dunnite (I believe that's the explosive), while the HE shell carries 8 lb; if all you wanted to do is shatter the shell body into fragments with some velocity then .5-1 lb would probably be plenty. The comparison with tanks and various armor penetration mechanisms (pure KE, shaped charge, squash head, etc) has been asked before, but it always comes back to the sheer volume of the ship, small volume of genuinely vital spaces, and scarcity of hits in a normal action pointing to the need for a big bursting charge to do as much damage over as large a volume as possible with each of those rare hits. When warships sank comparable warships using gunfire, it was usually the result of an accumulation of hits and resulting fires, especially if hits destroy firefighting equipment. The cruisers lost at Savo Island on 8/9/42 took dozens of 8" hits each, frequently accompanied by torpedo hits. Similarly, Furutaka at Cape Esperance was swamped with dozens of shell hits (90-ish) and sank some 3 hours later. Boise took a shell in the magazine, but the combination of stable US propellant and immediate flooding from the shell bursting below the waterline prevented the complete loss of the ship. At the River Plate, the four participating ships scored a total of about 80 hits, most (about 70) of which were on Graf Spee but which, because they were 6" shells, had only knocked out two guns in the secondary battery; it was an 8" hit from Exeter that damaged the fuel purification system.
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  1280.  @galbert117  all active battleships on December 7, 1941 would include all 15 treaty battleships plus the two North Carolinas. Arkansas has 12" guns, the North Carolinas 16", and everything else 14". The Germans have 21 capital ships with 11" and 12" guns. While the five battle cruisers can outrun everything but the North Carolinas, the rest of the German line can only manage about the same speed as the standards are designed for, 21 knots. In addition, the Germans have six pre-dreadnoughts, 11 light cruisers (many of which have torpedoes), and 61 torpedo boats. By 1941, the US has overcome the dispersion problems that made 6th Battle Squadrons shooting so unimpressive in 1918. While US bursting charges were generally smaller than British equivalents (23 lb for 14" AP vs 29 lb for 13.5"), the US always used a much more stable filler, so their AP shells would not simply explode on impact before penetrating belt armor. With the 15" guns of the Bayern class, the Germans really dont have any guns that can seriously threaten the US battleships until the range gets suicidally short. On the other hand, even the Konig class has belt armor that the 14" guns can penetrate handily at 15,000 yards. If it were just the capital ships, then the Germans should expect to be curb-stomped. However, your question is about sinking the entire HSF, and that would rely on the two North Carolinas having to run down, potentially, the survivors of the five battlecruisers, 11 light cruisers, and 61 torpedo boats. If the Germans flee at some point, I think they'll definitely have some surviving ships, if for no other reason than the Americans running out of ammunition.
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  1345.  @Drachinifel  In discussing the super heavy shells vs more typical shells, I find it useful to look at the data on navweaps for the 16"/45 Mark 5 (Colorados) in comparison with the 16"/45 Mark 6 (North Carolinas and South Dakotas). These guns appear to be almost identical, with the exception of the Mark 6 being about 10% lighter due to better metallurgy. The Mark 5 fires a lighter shell of contemporary design at a muzzle velocity about 200 ft/sec higher, but by the time the shells get to 20,000 yards the shell from the Mark 5 is only about 25 ft/sec faster, so the super heavy shell from the Mark 8 can be expected to penetrate an extra inch or so of belt armor at 20,000. Similarly, the US heavy cruisers have practically identical 8"/55 guns, but from Tuscaloosa onwards they are the Mark 12 and 15 which can use a 330 lb superheavy shell in comparison with the 260 lb shell on older cruisers with the Mark 9, 10, 11, 13, or 14 guns. The super heavy shell comes out the muzzle about 300 ft/sec slower, but is about 20 ft/sec faster by the time it gets to 20,000 yards. As a result. The super heavy shell can be expected to penetrate 5" of armor (to pick a number) at over 24,000 yards compared with less than 20,000 yards for the lighter shell. Note that in both cases, the use of the super heavy shell forces the use of a slightly smaller propellantcharge, contributing to the loss of muzzle velocity. It's just that, at practical battle ranges the heavier shell retains more of its initial velocity and delivers more kinetic energy for armor penetration. I also find this comparison useful because it eliminates a lot of potential variables. These are all US guns, using US propellant and US shell design philosophy. Armor penetration comes from the same US Navy predictive equation. Edit: another arguable point of comparison is the 16"/50 Mark 2 proposed for the earlier South Dakotas and Lexingtons compared to the 16=/50 Mark 7 of the Iowas. Again, the lighter shell (2,100 lb vs 2,700 lb) uses a heavier propellant charge (700 lb vs 660 lb) to achieve a modest increase in muzzle velocity (2,800 ft/sec vs 2,500 ft/sec). Navweaps does not provide retained velocity data for the lighter shells, but we can expect the heavier shell to have close to the same velocity at 20,000 yards. Navweaps does provide expected armor penetration, showing the Mark 8 expected to penetrate 50% more at 20,000 yards (20" vs 13.5"), but that is likely to be confounded by changes in shell design, which is why I prefer to look at the 16"/45 guns and shells, as the Colorado class got a newer Mark 5 AP shell that navweaps calls a "major change" from the AP Mark 3 used on the 16"/45 Mark 1 and the 16"/50 Mark 2. The Mark 5 shell from the Mark 5 gun could expect to penetrate 16" of belt armor at 20,000 yards, compared to the 13.5" of the lighter Mark 3 shell from the same guns.
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  1394.  @TheSleepingMeerkat  BK Jeong and I have discussed this repeatedly over the past year in these comments and I've found him to have a good point even if he makes it so vociferously that it distracts ts from the point he's making. I think everyone can agree that the new Axis battleships of the 30s and 40s were a complete waste of time, money, materials, and lives (when sunk). The Germans, in particular, would have been better served by an extra 150-200 u-boats in place of the two Bismarks and two Scharnhorsts. The Japanese would have been better served by,well, almost anything in place of the three Yamato hulls (Yamato, Musashi, Shinano). The Italians are just in a weird position with the Littorios, since all their operations were always going to be in the Med within range of their land-based aircraft. So they might be a little more justified building new fast battleships but might have been better served by better aircraft and air tactics (level bombing at medium altitude is not a way to score hits on ships). So, except for Bismark and Yamato fanboys, we can all agree that the Axis powers could have made better choices than to build new battleships. That basically leaves the British (KGV-class) and Americans North Carolina, South Dakota, and Iowa classes), both of which built significant numbers of carriers in addition to their battleships. I've made the point that both parties had, at the time they began building battleships again, maxed out their treaty limits for cruisers. Their choice wasn't between battleships and cruisers for AA and gunfire support, it was a choice between new battleships and nothing. In addition, the US had nothing to counter the speed and power combination of the four Kongos, further justifying some combination of four North Carolinas and South Dakotas. Outside of that specific situational context, BK Jeong has an excellent point. A competently handled carrier will be able to maintain awareness of everything on the surface within about 200 miles in this time frame. A fast battleship is limited to the radar horizon, somewhere between 30 and 50 miles. Once the enemy force is spotted, a carrier can strike from several hundred miles away, while the battleship must get much closer against a target that is already aware of the battleship's presence and its course and speed, and has the speed to keep the range open. The US was willing to accept lower speeds for its "standard" battleships because it expected to be attacking enemy bases and forcing their fleet to fight; this worked well for them in the Pacific but also worked well for the Japanese at Guadalcanal. This brings us to a point where BK Jeong has moderated his opinion slightly. The action of 15 November, 1942, is one of the few occasions where a new fast battleship did something to justify its construction (North Cape is another). A "standard" battleship probably couldn't have made it to Guadalcanal in time, even if it had been in the area, and a cruiser force would probably have suffered just as heavily as the one on the 13th did. If the US had a carrier available, it might have been able to hang out along the threat axis and surprise a Japanese surface force around sunset, but that's if they had a carrier available (they didn't), and such a carrier would have it's own vulnerabilities.
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  1410.  @bkjeong4302  I think that's conflating two separate issues. Pre-war, they focused on developing a group of extremely skilled fliers, and managed to build up close to a thousand, the number being limited to those who could make it through the very demanding program. Kind of like Heinlein's Starship Troopers (not the movie), where the mobile infantry is composed or men who can make it through the training, and the strength is however many make it through the training. Or Haldeman's Forever War. Such an elite group is culturally appropriate, in line with the thought that a sufficiently skilled master can take on any number of opponents without fear of losing ("the invincibility of a sufficiently refined technique"). This goes right out the window with mass, industrialized warfare. It may even be sufficient for victory if the US gives up early on rather than fight the war to a conclusion. My reference to the fuel situation is a hypothetical, starting from "what if the Japanese rotated experienced crews back to train replacements?" This would normally be my preference, rather than magically transporting that elite core of aviators across a couple years to the carrier battles of 1944. However, it occurs to me that, no matter what else happens in this hypothetical where the Japanese have a good replacement program, they may never have enough aviation fuel to give those trainees the necessary flight hours to become good. By mid-war the US replacements had ~300 flight hours on their log books before flying their first combat sortie. I dont know if the Japanese would ever have had enough aviation fuel for that (the Germans certainly didn't by 1944 or so), but they definitely didn't plan for a long enough war where it would be relevant.
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  1544.  @tapioisaac367  malfunctions, which are most commonly "errors in drill", are actually pretty common. For example, Duke of York fired 446 shells. against Scharnhorst over about two hours, but missed 241 firing opportunities (counting each gun missing one firing command as one opportunity). Note that the firing command actually comes from central fire control pulling the trigger to fire all guns at once (with slight variation for things like delay coils), so a gun that isn't ready will not fire and will not fire on its own under local control unless needed to clear the gun at the end of the action. West Virginia at Surigao Strait fired 93 projectiles in 16 salvos, with the last two being efforts to clear guns in turret 4. 91 shells in 14 salvos is only 6.5 guns per salvo for a ship with 8 guns. As evident above, sometimes the crew is slow in loading or misplaces something important that causes the gun to not fire when the central firing key is activated. If they were fully loaded and the gun misfired, they will wait a while (maybe as much as 30 minutes) before opening the breech just in case it's a hang (delayed) fire rather than a misfire. Note that for larger guns (6" and up, basically) the projectile weighs too much (130 lb for US 6" AP) for manual handling, so there really isn't an opportunity to drop a shell. Even if one falls over, the fuze needs to first be a tivated by the shock of being fired before it will be set off by the shock of impact on a target. So a shell may fall over and roll around in the shell room, but it's incredibly unlikely that any kind of accidental shock or impact (rolling over and crushing shell handling crew) would make a shell explode.
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  1700.  @bkjeong4302  if Congress will let me abrogate the Washington and London Naval Treaties, I might consider another four Yorktown-class CVs (80,000 tons), four more Wichita-class CAs (40,000 tons), and nine more St. Louis-class CLs (90,000 tons) in place of the 210,000 tons of North Caroline and South Dakota-class BBs. Doing this also makes my manpower situation really weird for peacetime because those extra ships need about twice the crew as six BBs. Of course, Congress won't let me do that so my choice is between building replacement BBs (and finding, by the time they're done, that war has broken out and I dont have to scrap my Nevadas and such) and building nothing at all. For the Royal Navy, the primary difference is that they dont have any recent 8" gun cruisers (the Countys date to the late 20s), so several more Ark Royals and a bunch of Town-class cruisers to eat up the KGV-class tonnage. Without the KGV-class there's an interesting question of whether the 5.25" gun also used on the Dido-class cruisers exists at all, so I haven't even considered more Didos for the moment. Again, Parliament is an obstacle to building above my treaty limits for cruisers and (possibly) carriers. For the Germans, I've already said I'd prefer another 110 Type VII u-boats to the two Bismark-class BBs. The Japanese would be better served by 140,000 tons of rocks with which to drown ambitious officers eager for a war with the US (there are a lot of them, especially in the army). The Italians ... I'd really have to think about because the Littorios are about the only balanced ships they built. As I recall, everything else Italian turned speed up to eleven at the cost of survivability. This may be a good place for more submarines to dispute the Med with the Royal Navy. If the Germans and Italians focus on submarines, then the French would be well-served by several more Algeries and a LOT of destroyers. (Edit: I forgot to address the Iowas. I wouldn't replace them with anything, leaving them unbuilt means I have another 8-9000 men to address the manpower shortage mentioned above.)
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  1705.  @ach3909  according to navweaps.com According to US Naval Technical Mission to Japan report O-47(N)-2, the Japanese saw the following deficiencies in these mountings in decreasing order of seriousness: The multiple mounts could not be trained and elevated rapidly enough, either by power or manual drive. The gunsights were inadequate against high speed aircraft. The guns had excessive vibration, making them difficult to keep on target. The capacity of the ammunition supply equipment was inadequate, causing interrupted fire and a greatly reduced operating routine. The muzzle blast caused problems for both the guncrew and equipment. Honestly, with the 15 mm Type 96 and the US 1.1"/75 Mark's 1 and 2, the problems are very similar. The round is large enough to reach out a good ways, but also large enough to slow the rate of fire and encourage mounts with multiple barrels to get the rate of fire back up to near machinegun level (500 rpm, say). The large mount tends to be slower in tracking and elevation than the single and hand-held mounts (and the faster wartime planes) while the large round also cuts down on ammunition capacity that can reasonably be handled by one man. The advantage the 1.1" gun has is a second box magazine to draw from while the first is being changed out, but the total of 16 rounds (two 8-round magazines) is about the same as for the 25 mm (one 15-round magazine). Either side probably could have worked the bugs out of its AA mountings, but the US had the option to just replace with the far better 20 mm and 40 mm guns. The Japanese received a few German 20 mm guns, and captured and copied a few hundred 40 mm Bofors from the British at Singapore, but never had a real alternative to its 20,000 or so 25 mm mountings of all types.
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  1711.  @bkjeong4302  after some reflection I'm going to have to disagree with you for several reasons: 1) Battle of the North Cape 2) Naval Battle of Guadalcanal 3) Second Naval Battle of Guadalcanal 4) Battle of Surigao Strait During the time under discussion, through the end of WW2, carrier aircraft do not fly in lousy weather, and do not fly at night without specialist training which, IIRC, only the Enterprise air group had and only by about 1944. If the enemy has a weapon, you need to be able to counter it. Yes, an aircraft carrier in fair weather or better, and during daylight, can cripple, and possibly sink, any BB or BC that gets within range and is detected. An aircraft carrier cannot interfere with Kongo and Haruna, or Hiei and Kirishima, slipping into Ironbottom sound to trash the airfield and air group on Guadalcanal. A force of cruisers and and destroyers can, but are likely to suffer heavily and may not be able to prevent the bombardment mission. Of the 13 ships present at 1st Guadalcanal, only 2-3 escape comparatively undamaged, and Kirishima came back two nights later, where it was sunk by Washington. Can a cruiser/destroyer force defeat a force lead by a battleship? Yes, but it's likely to be at a huge cost, even against less capable battleships like Hiei. Battleships aren't the queen of the sea anymore in WW2 (which is why TF38 at Leyte Gulf has six BBs and 17(!) CVs and CVLs), but if you need to prevent an enemy battleship force from accomplishing its mission at night or in bad weather, then battleships are what you really need in that niche. Can they fill that role cost-effectively, considering their usefulness as escorts against air attack and for shore bombardment? I think that needs a much finer-grained analysis, including the cost of repairs and casualties among the cruisers and destroyers trying to fight battleships in poor weather or at night.
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  1712.  @bkjeong4302 so the axis was using BBs for roles that "don't require" BBs. Even if I stipulate that the Germans shouldn't have built capital ships (which I actually tend to agree with), the fact of the matter is that the Japanese have capital ships, four of them the speedy Kongo class, while the US has no capital ships that can keep up with the Kongos (or later Yamatos) until the North Carolinas show up. The Japanese obviously found their cruisers and destroyers insufficient for shore bombardment to neutralize Henderson Field, whereas Kongo and Haruna rendered the Cactus Air Force combat ineffective. Since the Germans did build capital ships, the British have to be able to counter them even in a situation like the North Cape. We agree, it seems, that capital ships did have a niche role to fill, and were extremely useful in other roles even if smaller units might be able to fill those roles more cost-effectively. The tonnage of a treaty BB can be used for, say, three cruisers and three DDs, or two cruisers and about eight DDs might be a better use, but a BB requires about 2,000 crew while two cruisers require about the same number combined (for example, Washington had a crew of about 1900 while Tuscaloosa had about 900), and the DDs take 150-200 apiece. For comparison, the US lost over 1400 men killed checking (not defeating) the Japanese on November 13th, and only 242 two nights later. If we ignore the human cost, cruisers and destroyers may be a more cost-effective counter to BBs, but the Royal and uS navies never looked at cruisers as being "expendable" in the same way as DDs and motor torpedo boats were. That's also under the assumption that the treaty limits on total cruiser tonnage go away, because otherwise the RN and USN are built out and simply cannot build more cruisers (and the RN was already building less capable cruisers to increase their numbers) without violating the treaty, which had not happened yet by the time the KGV and North Carolinas started building. So ultimately, the Japanese had capital ships and the Germans built fast capital ships. The RN and USN have to be able to counter them, and another 20 years on would be able to counter with carrier-based aircraft with all weather/day and night search and attack capabilities, but in the mid 30s when they started the counter for a fast capital ship had to be at least a few fast capital ships of your own, which was still possible in those last few years before the treaties were finally abandoned, whereas the RN and USN can't counter with massed cruisers under the treaty, might have manpower problems, and definitely would have manpower problems as they lose cruisers trying to counter capital ships in the early part of the war. BBs no longer rule the waves, and would be completely obsolete in a generation, but I think it's taking the argument too far to say they were flatly obsolete and shouldn't have been built in the mid 30s.
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  1714.  @bkjeong4302  I have not simply assumed that capital ships have to be countered by your own capital ships; I have demonstrated that for certain situations they are the only available counter that does not require a great deal of technical development and biblical prophecy levels of foresight to pursue. Carriers and their air groups can counter capital ships in bad weather and at night, one you develop aircraft, crews, and other technical capabilities for day/night/all weather strike that did not, historically, show up for another couple of decades. Cruisers can counter capital ships at night and in bad weather if you're willing to pay that price and your cruisers carry effective torpedoes, which the USN did not (and I've already mentioned the treaty restrictions); 8" gunfire crippled Hiei's steering but did not threaten the ship's survival. It would take a steady stream of air attacks from Guadalcanal to convince the Japanese to scuttle it during the evening of the 13th. Submarines might have been a good bet, but nobody had a good experience in the previous war trying to use submarines as significant fleet elements because of their slow submerged speed. That basically leaves your own capital ships, which we know can counter enemy capital ships. As to the frequency of night actions, they happened every time the Japanese chose to send ships in at night. Samar and Kommandorski Islands are about the only surface actions of the Pacific in daylight. I'm unimpressed by the Yamatos and don't consider them even a plausible excuse for the Iowas. I think I'd still bet on all four South Dakota's being able to take the two Yamatos in a straight fight, although not without losses. While the Kilishima had some bombardment munitions, the damage to South Dakota clearly shows a mixture of 14" AP and bombardment impacts. Note (getting back to opportunity costs) that Kirishima, Nagara, and several DDs fought on the 13th and came back two nights later while none of the US ships from the 13th were present two nights later and the DDs were a scratch force of the four that had the most fuel. You also made a point about Japanese cruisers on shore bombardment which I don't think fully comprehends the situation. On October 15 Maya, Myoko, and Isuzu bombarded Henderson field with a mixture of bombardmentand AP rounds. Maya and Myoko each had 10 8" guns, one more than most US treaty cruisers, in addition to strong torpedo batteries. That bombardment, and all previous ones, was nothing compared to Kongo and Haruna two days before.
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  1719.  @bkjeong4302  I've already explained why I think the North Carolinas and South Dakotas are entirely justifiable in the context of the late 30s when they were built. One point our host has made on several occasions is that the US before 1920 had no cruisers or battle cruisers, and therefore had no real scouting ability for the battle line except for the hundreds of destroyers they built during WW1. These destroyers would likely die in large numbers against the recon efforts of the Grand Fleet or HSF battlecruiser scouting groups. In the same way, the USN in the mid 30s really needs a better counter the the four Kongos than a modest advantage in cruiser numbers and tonnage, especially since those cruisers have no torpedoes and therefore no weapons capable of seriously threatening a Kongo. Schwerer Gustaf contributes nothing to the discussion. The excuses the Germans came up with for developing such a unique piece of equipment are in no way comparable to the good and sound reasons for building the North Carolinas and SoDaks. There's a reason it's a one-of. Even by your own terms, I'll stack the combat records and usefulness of those BBs against the 210,000 tons of cruisers and destroyers, or carriers, that they can't be replaced with because we're already built out to our treaty limits in both categories (remember that Wasp was built to get a ship out of the remaining treaty tonnage). Washington and North Carolina were both launched before the Two Ocean Navy Act you mentioned earlier was passed. Two more North Carolinas could have been built and completed before the war began (for the US) if they hadn't taken a year to refine the design into the SoDaks.
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  1754.  @bkjeong4302  and such a carrier is also extremely vulnerable to air raids from Rabaul, which a carrier operating south/south east of Guadalcanal is not. Remember the lose of Chicago in early 1943 when the Japanese were evacuating Guadalcanal. I saw the same table. The notes indicate this was an estimate from a study in 1944 and actual combat is likely to show worse results. However, Drach has made the point that Littorio was shooting well enough that it would have started scoring hits at that range if it hadn't given up the game. The point about dispersion is that, once you get the center of the pattern on target, a tight group (less dispersion) will, too a point, let you score more hits than a looser group will. Still, I will concede the obvious point that the ability of a North Carolina/South Dakota/Iowa to score hits on a capital ship at extreme range (30,000+ yards) in actual combat conditions, while theoretically sound, has never been demonstrated. Just as Enterprise never demonstrated an ability to sink enemy capital ships at night. Actually, I have to wonder what the US would have done if Japan had been a peer opponent with the ability to make good its ship, aircraft, and aircrew losses and mass produce the copied 40 mm Bofors from Singapore in lieu of the 25 mm Hotchkiss. If the USN found its air groups like so many eggs thrown at a wall (as the Japanese found in the summer of 1944) might carriers have given way to surface combatants again? Maybe, particularly if the Japanese also get VT fuses and enough fighters to keep bombers with guided weapons away from the fleet.
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  1793. Not exactly a question, just some additional thoughts. So it sounds like Goeben and the four armored cruisers might, at best, have had a central rangefinder reporting range, speed, and bearing data to the gun positions, which would have had to look up elevation data based on range and apply some Kentucky windage for lead. Maybe some central gunnery yelling "Shoot" or "Feur" into a voice pipe or (more likely, given distance) phone to the gun positions in order to coordinate the salvo. Isn't that much like Tsushima, where the effective firing range topped out somewhere in the 6-10,000 yards range? In that case, while Gieben's 11" guns technically have a range advantage of about 3,000 yards, hitting at that kind of range would be pure luck. As for the engagement circumstances, as I understand it Troubridge tried to intercept at dawn in order to get in to that kind of effective firing range. When he saw that he couldn't, he broke off pursuit. From the chart I saw, it looked like an ongoing pursuit (if Troubridge didn't break off) would have been a race with the British squadron on Goeben's port and closer to land, leaving Goeben room to seaward to keep the range open. There might have been some room for Troubridge to force an engagement later than he wanted, say 0600 rather than 0400, but it's not clear to me that he could force an engagement close enough to give either side any real chance of scoring hits. Certainly it sounds like the court martial concerns about getting shelled to pieces over five miles of closing distance (i.e., from 19,000 yards down to 8,000 yards) are overstated given Goeben's fire control arrangements.
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  1875.  @readhistory2023  You're overstating some parts of the problem (at least for WW2) and understating some others. At 30,000 yards (16 miles-ish) it's more like 60 seconds flight time, about 30 seconds to 20,000 yards. With many navies, there was a mechanical fire control computer continuously (at least as much as possible) generating firing solution data based on inputs from the rangefinders and heading and bearing estimates. The computer then generated data that went out to indicators in the gun turrets, which the gun layers matched using their controls ("follow the pointer" control). For the US, AC electrical systems allowed the use of remote power control so the Mark 1 or 1A fire control computer dire fly controlled gun laying and elevation. In addition, that Mark 1 or 1A fire control computer was the most advanced control system in the world at the time. So, especially for shooting at another ship, there won't be long delays for calculations to be made and related to the gun crews, as this work is done electrically be the fire control computer and pointers/RPC. For shore bombardment, range data will have to be manually fed into the fire control computer unless the ship can see and range on the target. Unless there are no friendly troops in the area, there absolutely will be ranging shots and delays to correct for the fall of shot, because no one is going to let a ship just blaze away if there is any possibility of friendly fire. The tank attack at Salerno is not going to close so quickly that the ships can't take 60 seconds t get the range right before they start dumping 150 rounds per minute at the attacking division.
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  1916.  @stephenbond1990  the comparison to the 1.1" machinegun is probably the most apt, as the the 37 mm Breda and 2-pounder pom-pom were noticeably larger rounds and the 25 mm Hotchkiss WAS the 25 mm Japanese gun, except the Japanese made some "improvements" that actually made it worse. Both the 25 mm and 1.1" rounds are perfectly serviceable in a suitable weapon, and enough bigger than the 12.7 or 13.2 mm machineguns used as light AA to analogize to the 20mm Oerlikon/40 mm Bofors interaction later in the war. Right off, the 1.1" gun has an advantage in being able to feed from either of two 8-round box magazines, allowing one to be changed out while firing from the other, while the 25 mm used a 15-round box magazine, which forced the gun to stop firing while the magazine is changed out. However, a decent rate of fire demands a multiple-gun mounting, which obviously increases the weight and tends to slow the rate of elevation and train. Ultimately, while the US found readily available replacements in the 40 mm Bofors and 20 mm Oerlikon, and so abandoned efforts to refine the 1.1" gun and work out the teething troubles, the Japanese only ever had some transferred German 20 mm guns and captured British 40 mm Bofors from Singapore, which they copied to the tune of several hundred guns by the end of the war. Lacking readily available replacements, the Japanese had to continue working on the 25 mm. As noted at navweaps.com: According to US Naval Technical Mission to Japan report O-47(N)-2, the Japanese saw the following deficiencies in these mountings in decreasing order of seriousness: The multiple mounts could not be trained and elevated rapidly enough, either by power or manual drive. The gunsights were inadequate against high speed aircraft. The guns had excessive vibration, making them difficult to keep on target. The capacity of the ammunition supply equipment was inadequate, causing interrupted fire and a greatly reduced operating routine. The muzzle blast caused problems for both the guncrew and equipment.
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  1960. I had been meaning to say something about Ernest J. King last week, but needed to look up some citations. I think King's biggest sin during the war, even bigger than refusing to learn from the Royal Navy at first, was also America's biggest sin. Namely, a failure to give serious thought to the kind and quantity of forces that would be necessary to win they war they were preparing for and then fighting. For example, the US fielded a half-dozen Marine divisions and about 90 (88, IIRC) Army divisions, whereas the Germans had several hundred divisions and the Soviets more like 500. On the naval side, as Max Hastings put it, "[King] set about creating an armada whose size owed little to rational assessment of the resources needed to defeat Japan, and almost everything to his own grandiose vision." And later "Warships were coming off the slips faster than crews could be mustered and trained to man them. The navy never assessed its manpower needs, it simply enlisted every sailor it could get." By June 1945 he wanted 3.4 million men, but would have needed 4.1 million to crew all the ships the navy had ordered. This issue of crews, BTW, is one reason I keep coming back to the issue of manning cruisers and destroyers in my discussions with BK Jeong. While you can get three cruisers out of the tonnage of a battleship, those three cruisers will take more men to crew them (3300) than the battleship will (1800-2600), especially if one of those cruisers takes heavy casualties that wouldn't have been incurred by a battleship in the same situation.
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  1972.  @sarjim4381  not so much the lack of combat experience as the lack of realistic training in the peacetime Navy. The Japanese surface ships had just as little combat experience, but had conducted realistic training and it showed in their performance. I see where Exeter launched torpedoes from both sets of launchers at around 0640, and Ajax launched some torpedoes and forced Graf Spee to turn off at 0724, but most of Graf Spee's maneuvering was a matter of "chasing salvos" to reduce the accuracy of British fire (which also contributed to Graf Spee scoring fewer hits than her gunnery officers would have expected). If Graf Spee was going to sit back and fire at long range, it wouldn't matter if the opposing ships had torpedoes or not. Historically, Graf Spee did chose to close and engage, which made the torpedoes relevant. If the Graf Spee tries to hang back at 20,000-plus yards, the 10,000 yard range of the British Mark IX torpedo will be completely irrelevant. Even the 24" Type 93 of the Japanese navy was significant primarily because of it's great speed and large warhead, and the most damaging example of its use, at Tassafaronga, required almost active cooperation from the US force. After Minneapolis was hit, New Orleans, Pensacola, and Northampton all continued on or returned to their base.ourse and speed, and got hit by torpedoes. Honolulu, on the other hand, maneuvered radically and evaded the torpedoes. It's really hard to say that the Mark 15 torpedo, with all the same issues that plagued the submarine force's Mark 14, would have been worth including on cruisers before the bugs were worked out in 1943, by which time radar and fire controls had advanced quite a bit from 1939.
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  2148. You've talked about the comparative performance of the 16" Mark 8 "super heavy" AP shell in US service, but I've never seen an answer that addresses an obvious point of comparison that addresses other potential biases and isolates the comparison to the shell. Navweaps provides a great deal of data on both the 16"/45 Marks 5 and 8 used on the Colorado-class and the 16"/45 Mark 6 used on the North Carolina and South Dakota classes (hereafter, "Mark 5 gun" and "Mark 6 gun", respectively). The Mark 5 gun could not use the Mark 8 AP shell because it was too long and heavy for the shell handling equipment but did receive a normal-ish weight (2,240 lb) Mark 5 AP shell of modern design (eliminating a bias from differences in shell design) in the late 30s. From what I can tell, the Mark 5 and Mark 6 guns are practically identical in all respects except weight, which is the result of another two decades of improvement in metallurgy. Further, the data from navweaps on penetration comes from the USN Empirical Armor Penetration Formula for both guns, eliminating another potential confounding element. Therefore, it seems to me that a comparison of the performance of the Mark 5 gun with Mark 5 shell to the Mark 6 gun with Mark 8 shell will provide the most appropriate basis for comparison that isolates the difference in shell weight from other confounding issues. According to navweaps, the Mark 5 AP shell from the Mark 5 gun should impact at 1,629 fps at 20,000 yards, providing just over 16" of belt armor penetration and 3.5" of deck armor penetration. In comparison, the Mark 8 shell from the Mark 6 gun will strike at 1,604 fps (almost completely making up the over 200 fps difference in muzzle velocity), providing over 17.5" of belt penetration and over 4" of deck penetration. The superior belt penetration of the Mark 8 shell from the Mark 6 gun appears to be present at all ranges, although the Mark 5 shell from the Mark 5 gun is only expected to penetrate a few hundredths of an inch less at the muzzle. Why ignore this obvious basis for comparison in favor of focusing on a conjectural standard weight shell for the 16"/50 Mark 7 gun? Doesn't this comparison of the Mark 5 gun firing the Mark 5 shell with the Mark 6 gun firing the Mark 8 shell provide strong evidence that the Mark 8 shell is worthwhile across the board?
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  2212.  @jeremyfeldmann7969  Is that a reference to gun caliber in mm? There's a common human preference for "nice round numbers". While 203 mm (8") is a nice round number in imperial units (inches), it isn't really in metric. Germany, OTOH, seems to have a distinct preference for referring to everything larger than small arms in centimeters, even if it isn't a nice round number of centimeters. Thus the various 88 mm guns of the imperial German navy and later German armies and navies are referred to as 8.8 cm guns, and the common secondary gun for Germany during the 20th century was various 15 cm (5.9") guns. So while the US used 8" guns on various pre-dreadnought battleships and cruisers, Germany would end up going with 21 cm guns on SMS Blucher. All else equal, there really isn't all that much difference between an 8" gun and a 21 cm gun, or a 15 cm gun, a 6" (152 mm) gun, and a 155 mm gun. Japan and the UK were a little different. After WW1, Japan redesigned all of its guns in terms of cm, but it rounded them to the nearest whole centimeter, so what was previously a 3" (76.2 mm) gun was now designated as an 8 cm gun. This blend over into new gun designs, such that the guns on Nagato and Mutsu were actually 41 cm (16.1") rather than the even 16" specified by the Washington Naval Treaty. In the UK, there was a long history of designating guns by the weight of shot, with each step up in gun size attempting to achieve a rough doubling in shot weight; this would lead to some odd gun sizes like the 7.5" (200 lb, twice the 100 lb of a 6" shell) and 9.2" (380 lb, almost double that of a 7.5" shell). Obviously there was some slop there, with the British limiting their guns to even tenths of an inch and content with an approximate doubling of weight. In more direct answer to the question, the tendency is to continue developing guns using the nation's own convention for what is a nice round number, and not sweating a few millimeters of diameter.
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  2270. Thanks for addressing my question about the pursuit of Goeben and Breslau in the last live stream. The thrust of the question focuses on the difference in fire control equipment. I presume that Goeben had the third level of equipment you described, with a main rangefinder feeding range and bearing data to the fire control table/computer/whatever, which then provided gunnery instructions to the gun positions electrically using the "follow the pointers" method. In contrast, I suspect (but do not know) that the British armored cruisers had the second level of equipment with a main rangefinder providing ranging information but the guns otherwise mostly operating under local control. In essence, Troubridge's cruisers would be prepared to fight a Tsushima-style engagement at a range of up to about 10,000 yards while Goeben is prepared to fight a Jutland-style engagement at 16-20,000 yards. If this impression is correct, then Goeben is in a good position (if Troubridge tries to engage) to just keep the range open at, say, 14,000 yards (Goeben should have speed advantage over the armored cruisers) and pick them off with the two aft turrets and whichever amidships turret bears, a total of six guns. Troubridge does not appear to have any kind of speed advantage, so he would have had to find terrain that would restrict Goeben's ability to evade and make his attack there in order to have any chance of damaging Goeben noticably. While his guns can range out to Goeben's location, his inferior fire control equipment would mean that he is relying on luck while Goeben's gunners are steadily chewing through his cruiser squadron. Edit: Goeben might also try to finesse a fight at 16,000 yards or so just outside the range of the British guns with their 15 degree elevation limits.
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  2291.  @johnfisher9692  I dont see the math adding up. Supposedly, the 18.1" shell is good for 30-something inches of armor penetration at the muzzle. The thickest part of Bismark's belt is 32 cm (12.6"), backed up by a 10 cm (3.9") deck sloped at 60 degrees, doubling the effective thickness. Total is a little over 20" equivalent. One possibility is that his definition of "point blank" is far enough away that the velocity and penetration have fallen enough, although that will also effect both angles of impact. Another is that he's looking at the particulars of Japanese shells, which have a small cap head rather than a proper armor piercing cap, or that he's counting on the belt to strip the cap head and the turtleback to shatter the shell. However, deck armor is not typically face hardened because it is intended to stop bombs, which generally aren't moving fast enough to shatter on face hardened armor. The state of the art for ship armor in WW2 was a form of spaced armor, with either a decapping plate well outboard of the main face-hardened armor belt or a thick outer shell that was sturdy enough to strip off the cap. The South Dakota and Iowa classes approached this with their thick STS shell and sloped armor belt, but didn't get the full effect because they used class B armor plate which was not face hardened. The British KGV class used an exterior slab of excellent face-hardened armor. The Italians designed the Littorio class with such a decapping plate, but may not have given it enough space from the face-hardened armor belt and filled in the voice space with a cement foam. The Bismarks used an exterior belt backed by a thinner plate, exactly the opposite of what is useful for spaced armor when dealing with capped projectiles.
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  2320.  @TraditionalAnglican  as I understand, you're arguing that improving allied aircraft were more responsible for increased allied success than Japanese aircrew losses. I think you overstate your case talking about the P-26 and F2A. The P-26 saw action in the Phillipines (26, out of 150 or so built). The F2A was on the Lexington (18) in December 1941, and at Midway (20) in June 1942, but all the carriers at Coral Sea and Midway used F4Fs, and the debate in the Navy was over the F4F-3 (4 guns with 450 rounds per gun) vs the F4F-4 (6 guns with 240 rpg). The F6F and F4U didn't see combat until early 1943 in the Pacific, by which time the remaining Japanese fleet carriers had withdrawn to the home islands to train new aircrew. The first P-39s at Guadalcanal were a tually P-400s, export models rejected in Europe because of the lack of turbosupercharging. Performance of the P-400 fell to crap above about 15,000 feet, whereas the Japanese bombers came in at almost 30,000 feet where only the F4F could reach them. The Army didn't get any decent fighters at Guadalcanal until some P-38s were assigned after the November battles. I think you may not fully appreciate how thoroughly the Japanese crafted their pilot training program for a short war, and were dumbfounded when the Americans didn't just give up in the face of an "insurmountable" advantage. It is well known how aircrew losses kept Zuikaku cooling its heels while Akagi, Kaga, Hiryu, and Soryu were lost at Midway. This was not an accident, it was simply a reflection of how few aircrew the Japanese had and how slowly they had been training them. They ramped up the rate later in the war, but the quality took a nose dive. Those later replacements had, maybe, 40-80 hours of flight time, while US pilots arrive at the fleet with 200-300 hours, which makes a huge difference.
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  2343.  @messa2218  twocthings about those early 19th century battleships and their torpedoes. 1) they were not intended for short range use, but were limited to short range by the torpedoes themselves. The intent was that a battleship would have torpedoes available for finishing off slow moving or motionless cripples by letting water into the bottom. Torpedoes at the time had ranges of a few thousand yards at best, at a time when the Japanese were wrecking the Russian Second Pacific Squadron at about 8,000 yards and Jutland would be fought in the 14-20,000 yard bracket. Edit: ok, I do see now where the Royal Navy expected to have its battle line using torpedoes at the opposing battle line, where ships were expected to fill 1/3 of the space in the line so about that number of torpedoes should hit. As it was, the capital ships only fired 21 torpedoes at Jutland because of the extreme (for torpedoes) range. 2) capital ship torpedoes were individual tubes below the waterline leading to a large torpedo flat that stored reload torpedoes and had enough room for men to get those reloads into the tube. Typical installation might be one in the bow, one in the stern, and one on each broadside, total of four. This should immediately reinforce the first point about finishing off cripples, because the definition of frustration is to try to hit an alert target with a single torpedo at significant range. Further, each of those torpedo flats is a massive flooding hazard, a large compartment below the waterline with no further subdivision (edit: as demonstrated when Lutzow took two 12" hits that immediflooded the forward torpedo flat and led to her loss).
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  2371. While discussing the Mark 8 16" AP "Super Heavy" shell, we should keep in that we already have the basis for an apples to apples comparison with the 16" Mark 5 on the Colorados and Mark 6 on the North Carolinas and South Dakotas. The two guns have the same barrel length, chamber volume (near enough), and working pressure, and almost the same propellant charge (535 vs 545 lb of SPD, with the older gun using the larger charge)). The significant difference is in the shell, as the Mark 5 16"/45 did not have an ammunition handling system that could accept the 16" Mark 8 AP, although it did get a new Mark 5 AP shell weighing 2,240 lb in the late 30s. The Mark 8 shell from the Mark 6 gun has a muzzle velocity of 2,300 fps from a new gun, compared to 2,520 fps for the Mark 5 shell from the Mark 5 gun. As a result, the the Mark 5 shell reaches out to 35,000 yards at 30 degrees (the limit of the turret) while the Mark 8 shell has to be fired at 35 degrees for almost the same distance (34,500 yards) and tops out at just under 37,000 yards. At practical ranges, out to about 25,000 yards, the Mark 8 shell has penetration that is equally to or better than the Mark 5 shell (USN empirical formula): 29.74" to 29.68" at the muzzle 26.6" to 26" at 5,000 yards 23.5" to 22.5" at 10,000 yards 20.47" to 19.22" at 15,000 yards 17.62" to 16.24" at 20,000 yards 15.05" to 13.74" at 25,000 yards So it seems unlikely to me that the 16"/50 would display significantly better armor penetration just by using shell of similar construction but more conventional weight compared to the Mark 8 superheavy AP.
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  2553.  @michelangelobuonarroti4958  what army, the Germans still held 1.5 million French troops as POWs. The colonial forces have neither the numbers nor the equipment to prevent an Italian conquest if the Italians go West for the French colonies rather than East into Egypt. Hitler would have prevented the Italians from attacking the French colonies? Do you even hear how ridiculous that sounds? And if the Italians never contemplated a move against the French and their fleet, then why were the Italians so happy to have the French fleet in North Africa where their army was located and could go after them? The fact that the Italians elected to go after the Suez Canal says nothing about whether they considered any other possibilities. Yes, the French were trusted partners right up to, oh, 22 June when they stabbed the British in the back and signed a separate peace with Germany. Both sides had solemnly promised each other that they would not seek a separate peace, and then the new French government broke that promise. Sure, the new French government promised that its Navy would not fall into German hands, but again, the surrender on 22 June showed what that governments promises were worth. You are correct in one thing only, the British were not living in 2019, or even at the end of 1942. To conclude that the new French government really meant it when they said they wouldnt let the Germans have their ships, the British would had to have been prescient. It is even likely that the British actions to secure the French fleet in July 1940 hardened the French resolve enough for them to go through with the scuttling in November 1942, just to spite the British. A war crime and the fault of the British? Not by any stretch of the imagination. As I've shown, the British had every reason to secure the French fleet once they decided to continue resisting Germany. German acquisition of the French fleet would have made a succesful invasion of England more likely assuming the situation in the air could become satisfactory. The British secured other elements of the French fleet without violence in Alexandria, and without large casualties in England. At Mers el Kebir, Gensoul got pissy because the French-speaking officer sent to speak to him (Holland) was ONLY a captain. Gensoul refused to tell his government that one of the many options the British were offering was for the fleet to move to French colonies in the Americas, something Darlan had already authorized him to accept. Those thousand-plus French deaths lie primarily on Gensoul's head.
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  2704.  @bkjeong4302  not really disagreeing on any of that. Certainly the Japanese were culturally obsessed with aircrew quality rather than quantity, what has been called "the myth of the invincibility of a sufficiently refined technique". I see that the Japanese planned to build 16 Unryu-class carriers starting in 1941-42, but only 3 were completed. Germany absolutely would have been better served by another, what, 150,000 tons of u-boats rather than the Schanhorsts and Bismarks, but the Bismarks were actually a little smaller than Hood. The French and Italian battleship programs were heavily influenced by the focus on the Mediterranean (always in range of land-based aircraft) and each other. The Japanese, on the other hand, have the misfortune, or poor timing, to put the first of two massive battleships into service just after the attack that was intended to obviate the "need" for them. To clarify that last point, the Yamatos were intended to counter multiple "standard" battleships in the decisive fleet engagement. They were begun when the IJN still envisioned starting a war in the Phillipines and fighting the decisive engagement near those islands after attributing the US fleet with aircraft, submarines, and night torpedo attacks from destroyers and cruisers. The Pearl Harbor raid was intended to avoid the need for a decisive battle by presenting the US with a fiat accompli and hope they would accept it because the Phillipines were so far away and it would take so long to rebuild the fleet. Yamato was commissioned just over a week after Pearl Harbor, so what was the point again?
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  2724.  @bkjeong4302  I'm going to disagree with you on that last sentence. There is a reason people built "cruiser killer" warships. The most cost-effective (short term) way of killing anything is to so overwhelm it that you take no damage in response. That's part of the analysis of Savo Island (four sunk CA vs a half-dozen or so scattered hits) in comparison with Cape Esperance two months later (CA and DD sunk, a second CA crippled vs one DD sunk and serious damage to a CL and DD). Or, for a more time-relevant point of comparison, the Battles of Coronel and the Galkland Islands, both of which were curb-stomps because of that kind of overmatch in opposing ships. The cost of building and crewing a new ship can change that calculation (assuming you can find crew for them, the US was having trouble with that by the end of the war) but with the Kongos the ships have already been built, and rebuilt to be a little faster. I can see why you might say they're not cost-effective against sub-capital ships based on what happened to Hiei, but night fighting always has the potential to skew the results (see Matapan and Tassafaronga for examples). Hiei took a lucky hit in the steering compartment from San Francisco's 8" guns at very close range (1-2 nautical miles, IIRC), but would have survived if it wasn't for the Cactus Air Force at Guadalcanal; certainly Helena and Fletcher (the only two uncrippled US ships from the battle) weren't going to circle back to try to finish it off. Really, the only thing that salvages that battle for the US is the fact that they prevented a bombardment, but they did so at horrendous cost (2 CL and 4 DD sunk, 2 CA and 3 DD crippled, leaving 1 CL and 1 DD relatively undamaged). If Hiei had survived or Guadalcanal (at least the airfield) been taken in November at the cost of Hiei, I dont think anyone would blink at making that trade for Japan.
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  2756.  @mikbraikku  USS Franklin was struck by two 250 kg (550 lb) semi-armor piercing bombs, and from fairly low altitude (Franklin'sreport says mast height). The Japanese famously used some AP bombs made from battleship gun projectiles, and "land" bombs that were fairly thin-walled with a large explosive filler for blast and fragmentation effect. A SAP bomb will have pretty thick structure, a hard nose with a delay fuse, and will still have a lot more explosive filler than a battleship AP shell. The ability of a bomb to penetrate deck armor is heavily dependant on the height it is dropped from and the ability of the bomb to withstand the force of the impact. Essex-class carriers like the Franklin had about 2.5" of special treatment steel (STS) as both armor and structural steel forming the floor of the hanger deck. The Illustrious-class carriers had a 3" armored flight deck. I think we can be confident of the flight deck rejecting both bombs based on them penetrating Franklin's 1.5" flight deck steel and failing to then penetrate the 2.5" hanger floor. The bombs would, therefore, bounce/skid along the flight deck until the fuses set them off .2-.4 seconds after impact. Since Franklin was in the process of launching a strike, with 31 aircraft on the flight deck loaded with aviation gas and munitions for attacking land targets (bombs and rockets), the bombs would have devastated the aircraft and crews waiting to take off, and would have created a large flight deckfire. The explosions are likely to warp the flight deck a little, and may cause collateral damage on the hanger deck where Franklin had another 22 planes, of which most were gassed and armed. A great deal will depend on whether the explosion and fragments do enough damage to the flight deck to allow burning gasoline down into the hanger deck to spread the fire. However, with the bombs going off at flight-deck level, the engines and fire mains are unlikely to be damaged, so the hypothetical British carrier should have an easier time fighting those fires.
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