Comments by "William Davis" (@williamdavis9562) on "Dialogue Works"
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This was an interesting take on the whole situation. As someone who has been living in Turkey part time for over 25 years I can confidently say people back home in the west simply do not understand this country and it's internal dynamics.
As the podcaster was asking near the end of the video about getting Turkey back into the European orbit. I'd imagine that time has come and gone. 2004 was essentially the breaking point between Europe and Turkey and it has been driven off a cliff ever since. Personally I don't think the Turks have any interest in integrating with Europe, the only time they'll mention it is for diplomatic points in playing the victim. Even if the EU offered them a no questions asked entry tomorrow they'd probably reject it. I also agree with the podcaster that a Turkey in the EU would have served the interests of Greece. Greece would no longer be on the front lines of the EU, their security in hand they also wouldn't have the economic burden of high defense budgets, not to mention a huge market next door to ship products to. That ship sailed, the Turks now see Europe as strategically irrelevant in the long term at best and a sinking ship in the long term at worst. I'd imagine the Turks in the long term will essentially be looking at the EU as a place to bully in the future and take concessions from. Europe has two major routes to bring in resources and energy. Through Russia or middle eastern and central Asian energy through Turkey. America shot Europe in the foot with Russia and Europe shot itself in the foot with Turkey. Europe needs at least one of them in their orbit, having both of them as adversarial when you need them to bring in energy is one of the worst geopolitical blunders of the past 200 years. Europe now in the long term will be hemmed in by two hostile powers who control all their energy routes.
As far as Greece's security, unfortunately I believe the Turks will be coming for them sooner or later. America's response and Turkey's economy are really the only things holding back the itchy finger generals on this issue. If America is ever disinterested in the region and Turkey finds space, they're going to make their move like Russia recently made their move. Unfortunately for Greece there is literally nothing the EU nations can really do to stop it, aside from harsh statements and economic sanctions. They're pretty hell bent on carving out a sphere of influence in the East Med and Aegean Sea, akin to how China views retaking Taiwan. Greece's best hope is for some sort of civil strife in Turkey or a complete economic meltdown where the entire political class gets wiped out, both unlikely to happen.
I remember an analyst once told me in 2009 that Ukraine is on borrowed time, Russia will eventually come knocking. I remember thinking it was far fetched. Now I feel the same about Turkey and Greece.
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