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William Davis
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "William Davis" (@williamdavis9562) on "Armenia vs. Azerbaijan: Unpacking the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict || Peter Zeihan" video.
I don't think making territorial claims on every single one of your neighbors is going to end well.
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Russia as weak as they are were essentially the only thing stopping Azeri tanks from rolling into Yerevan in 2020. Amenia joining the ICC and completely alienating their only defense gurantee is nothing short of taking out a shotgun and shooting yourself in the foot. No chance the west can physically intervene in a conflict in this region. So Armenia's only shield left is Iran. When push comes to shove will Iran physically get involved? Probably not. Strategic blunders after strategic blunders, I honestly feel bad for the people living in Armenia to have to deal with this type of leadership. Just 15 years ago the Azerbaijanis from a position of weakness offered a deal in which they'd legally offload Nagorno Karabakh to Armenia in return for something like 40% of the other territories Armenia had taken from them. In hindsight it was a great deal, Armenia said no. Blunder after blunder. If they had taken that deal they'd be sitting quite pretty right now. All embargos would have been lifted, trade would resume, they'd have zero military threats to deal with and they wouldn't be sitting around hoping Russia protects them. But they did what they did and this played out the way it played out. Now they're fuked. The west can't help them and Russia is too busy in Ukraine.
3
@lahoreaskari2651 Aside from some sort of corridor near the Iranian border I don't think Azerbaijan or any of Armenia's neighbors have any interest in Armenian territory. The problem is going to arise from not losing land but being completely cut off from the world by neighbors whom you have outstanding issues with. I'm not sure how a nation in a situation like that can survive economically, politically, socially and militarily. I don't think Armenia is going to lose lands, it is simply going to slowly bleed to death via depopulation.
2
@devalapar7878 As terrible as the Turkish economy is, it's quite ridiculous to assume trading with Armenia would entice them to do anything. There is literally nothing for them to gain. Their products are already sold there taken in via Georgia.
1