Comments by "William Davis" (@williamdavis9562) on "Let's Talk Turkey (BIG Strategy Changes) || Peter Zeihan" video.

@Campfireverthing. Iran has every reason you can possibly think of to assist Armenia. The problem isn't how willing they are, the problem is what can they actually do? As far as signing off, there is nothing for them to sign on or off of. That territory legally speaking is internationally recognized territory, the only way for Armenia to hold it is to physically occupy it. Which they no longer can. Who would have thought that invading your neighbor's internationally recognized territory and ethnically cleansing 800,000 civilians in the 1990s might lead to something bad in the future right?
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@letsRegulateSociopaths They themselves don't believe in those guarantees against being attacked themselves. Their domestic defense spending has more to do with them not trusting Nato nations to supply them with arms than it does with them planning an offensive with Nato. They've dealt with enough defense embargos to make them nervous about their defense needs.
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@inveenhuizen As someone who follows Turkey, they're one of the few nations where their domestic policy generally doesn't play a huge role in their foreign policy. For example when they were locking Sweden out of Nato, even all the opposition parties were on board. These types of strategic decisions generally don't shift with changes in governments or political winds in Turkey. It's an odd thing but there are plenty of reasons for it.
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@samorpeterenpretene9184 It's not the best script but it isn't a bad script either. The OP is right, more information was packed into this script than you'd get by watching the mainstream media talk about this issue in 10 years.
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You'd probably get the same answer 99% of nations. Why do you think the US dollar is the world's reserve currency. You're shocked people want it? lol
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The United States does not have the willingness or the ability to project any sort of power into the Caucasus. France, France itself is a fairly helpless nation when it comes to projecting power far off it's shores. Hell they're having trouble projecting power on African nations who have nothing. Russia and Iran are the only two games in town for Armenia. Russia is busy and Iran is weak. Would have made a lot more sense for Armenia to negotiate with Azerbaijan in the past 30 years before the recent conflict, seems too late now. Most Armenians I've met were highly intelligent people. I find it surreal that out of a population with so many intelligent people, they couldn't find a few guys with a simple understanding of geopolitics before getting into this mess they find themselves in.
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@Rojans3, I'm not sure humans have mastered the technology of causing earth quakes. If we did we wouldn't see many wars. THey'd just destroy nations via earth quakes, why bother invading?
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@Constellation35. Superpower is a very heavy term my friend. Turkey's geography is nowhere near suited for them to be a "super power" To be a super power you need the ability to project power into every corner of the planet. The Turks can't, nor do they have any intention of doing so. They are well on their way to becoming an extremely powerful regional power though.
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@george2113 I'm not sure religion has anything to do with their geopolitical objectives. What a childish comment.
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@Jpj440, their geography dictates that type of policy, it always has. They're actually extremely predictable. I'd imagine world leaders they deal with can easily predict what they're going to do.
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@shanytopper2422 Turkey doesn't get paid for shipments through it's passage way out of the Black Sea. It isn't like the Panama Canal or Suez Canal.
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You do realize the ports where these vessels dock are in Ukraine right? You think any of these nations are going to stroll their navy up into a war zone? Besides in some alternative universe lets assume these nations did that. Russia would simply blow up the ports before they get there. This might turn into a real problem in many nations which are food insecure. It might kick off a wave of instability like with the Arab spring and cause millions and millions of migrants. We live in scary times :O(
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First off no nation is going to roll their navy up into an on going war zone. Nations 1000x more powerful than Egypt like Turkey wouldn't even attempt such a thing. Even if Egypt even considered such a thing they'd get a phone call and scrap it. Russia isn't going to allow the Navy of any nation friendly or not dock into their warzone, period. The only nation capable of fixing this grain deal problem is America. Russia's position is quite clear, they won't allow Ukrainian Wheat out if they're not allowed to sell their Russian wheat. Their major condition is allowing their agro banks back into swift and allow insurance companies to ensure their shipments. If they get that the deal is back on. Bad news is, my government here in America has zero interest in giving the Russians that. Even if it means millions will starve. So it's a catch 22. Fanciful ideas like navies pulling up and intimidating the Russians at a port in Ukraine is a pipe dream. Even if that were possible, it certainly won't be Egypt which is essentially a vassal state for sale to the highest bidder.
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I do realize how bad things will get in Egypt if wheat doesn't get out on the markets. Chaos, maybe even revolution. But you're literally asking for the impossible. All this even assuming the Turks let you go through the straits with your military vessels. They won't, which if I were them I wouldn't either, the last thing they want is more war in the Black Sea. It's a fantasy bro. The only way it works is if you go get it directly from the Russians from a Russian port. If Egypt's situation gets that dire that might be an option.
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They manufacture under license. They can't just crank them out as they please. F-35 is already off the table, what Peter was talking about was the F-16
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This comment legit made me laugh 🤣
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@Julienrocher1. There is nothing to clarify. What you're mentioning is quite literally impossible.
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I'm not sure how willing Russia would be to give Turkey that level of leverage over them.
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What exactly is an "autocratic election."
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@lindax911 Not sure that answers my question. I'd like to know what an autocratic election is. Sounds like an oxymoron.
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@alexandermckay8594 The fact they consume more than they produce and like you said their lack of hydrocarbon resources are their weakness. I wouldn't put food on that list. They actually export more food than the import. They're food secure, if they shut down all food exports they produce more than enough calories to feed their population.
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@alexandermckay8594 You'd have to look into the details of that. The wheat they import is not for domestic consumption. One of Turkey's industries is refining wheat into finished products like Spagetti for export. If all the wheat exports to Turkey stopped, it would have no effect on local food consumption. It would however destroy their wheat refining companies. Yes Turkey consumes a lot of bread but all of the wheat used for domestic consumption of bread is from domestic wheat. This specific topic is something I was curious about not too long ago and did a deep dive to see if Turkey was food insecure or not. Their biggest issue would be meat, animal husbandry in that nation isn't efficient at all and already high meat prices would skyrocket if they weren't able to import cows. Other than paying higher prices for meat, that nation is not food insecure. They grow more than enough to feed their population. They are nowhere near as food secure as America, Australia, Russia or Canada. But if world war broke out and all international shipping stopped they wouldn't starve to death like many nations.
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@Jasonaffa1. Russia seems to want no part in the grain deal. After Turkey has been strong armed into adhering to some of the principles of the sanctions on Russia there is very little chance they can influence Russia into getting back into the deal either. Also Russia was also promised many things with the grain deal which they simply didn't get. It was obvious how this would play out.
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That situation is a tad bit too complex for a short youtube video I'd imagine. Also when you speak of the US abandoning the "Kurds" which Kurds are you referring to exactly? There are so many different factions with completely different objectives.
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@PradedaCech Most of the power they project is military power, not economic. Their currency losing value didn't stop their military industrial complex one bit.
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They're blessed and cursed at the same time with their geography. I doubt it's fun where every single one of your neighbors except one has been at war in the past 10 years. That is like walking through a minefield. Ukraine-war. now Russia-war. now Azerbaijan, Armenia-war 2020 Georgia-war 2008 Iraq-war 2003-god knows when Syria-war 2011-god knows when It's like they're in the middle of a ring of fire hoping it doesn't spill over into their territory. I also don't want to imagine what that would do to an economy if every single one of your neighboring nations is either at war or wrecked by war.
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@Sirnukesalot24, Something like that is WAYYYY out of the reach of Egypt.
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@Pazitor, what exactly will turning to the EU do for them and their economy? They were well turned to the EU for more than 2 decades in a period where their economy was even worse than it is now. It won't help or make the situation worse.
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Turkey's F-16s are older models. They want the upgraded version.
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Well they really can't, Russia that is. The Ukraine situation is an oddball due to the war. There is no way Russia can prevent the other Black Sea nations from crossing in and out of the Black Sea. In fact it would be much easier for Turkey to prohibit Russia considering they're in full control of the crossing into the Black Sea.
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@@arisnotheles Geography is destiny. Any person leading that country will be trying to "keep their options open."
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