Comments by "David Ford" (@davidford3115) on "What TAIWAN can learn from UKRAINE (and what it can't) - VisualPolitik EN" video.

  1.  @iche9373  Indeed. A Tale of two peoples. One who wouldn't fight for their country, another that has.
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  2. Yes, that would be in addition to employing what Erwin Rommel proposed (and was rejected by the German High Command) for the defense at Normandy. Hit them with subs in the channel. As the ships approach the littoral waters, bog them down in the coral and on the shoals. Then turn the beaches into an enfilading crossfire. And once they establish a foothold, engaging in a fighting retreat towards the caves and dig in like the Japanese did in WW2.
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  3.  @junkeatng  In theory, yes that MIGHT happen. But as is often the case, the most predictable plans fall apart once contact with the enemy is made. The fatal flaw in your plan is the markets for which China would sell. If foreign companies leave, do you really think that China would be able to sell their now counterfeit goods internationally? The domestic Chinese market would be a boon for local Chinese businesses, but they would NOT be able to take advantage of the international markets.
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  4.  @tamasgyorffy1  Western Europe doesn't like to see their populations carry weapons in times of peace either. And Australia which did have that mentality at one time has also disarmed its population. The West is ripe for conquest because their governments distrust their own people more than they distrust China.
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  5.  @fenfenwang6356  Yes, Chang Kai-Shek's supporters who were mostly Han Chinese fled to Formosa so that Taiwan is Chinese culturally. But there are TWO Chinas just like there are TWO Koreas. Hell, the Koreans have been divided for at least one year less than the Two Chinas depending on if you are measuring from the outbreak of the Korean War or its conclusion. Tell me, do you pass through customs when traveling between the mainland and Formosa? If you do, then it is pretty clear there are de facto two countries.
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  6. De Jure or De Facto. De Jure they are one country. De Factor, they have been two separate countries since 1950. Hell, the Koreans have been officially divided into two countries for at least one year less than the Two Chinas.
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  7. All very good questions. If their regular border skirmishes with India are any indication, the PLA is not nearly as effective and disciplined fighting force as the politicians in Beijing would like to think.
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  8. Same here. Where is the French, Germans, and British lines of defense in Eastern Europe? THEY need to be on Poland's border, not the US. And I agree that Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea ARE worth defending. They appreciate us more than Europe does. And what they have to offer the US is more than what Europe brings to the table.
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  9. Indeed. The disastrous amphibious landing attempt at Kinmen Island in 1950 shows the extent of poor planning by the PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy). Unless their Navy builds dedicated landing craft, they will not succeed. Using wooden ferry boats is a recipe for another embarrassing defeat.
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  10.  @tianxiabai1185  Human wave attacks. Yes, when you have a swarm of bodies overrunning your position, you are going to run out of bullets long before they run out of bodies. But that is an amazingly large butcher's bill to pay.
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  11.  @tianxiabai1185  Nice bloviating and goal post moving. Fact is, your PLA got its clock cleaned in Vietnam. Everything they learned fighting the US they put to effective use against you.
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  12.  @xiphoid2011  Hostile country? Maylasia or Indonesia? I was under the impression they are on good terms with their neighbors.
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  13.  @xiphoid2011  Thank you for enlightening me. I knew that Singapore was part of the Malay Union at one time, but I thought it was a mutually amicable parting of ways. That it was not gives me a new perspective on that part of the world.
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  14. Sounds to me they have a similar problem as Russia, namely the development of an NCO corp. That is going to be a major problem especially as Mainland China has spent the last 20 years nurturing one.
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  15.  @junkeatng  Land wise, yes. Share of the international market, not so much. You really think that 75% of the worlds nations which together account for less that 50% of the world's total trade are going to be a big enough offset? You are smoking some pretty strong reefers if you think so.
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  16.  @kimandre336  I blame romanization. One of the things that frustrated me the most during my time in East Asia is how many extra silent letters are put into Korean, Japanese, and Chinese word. Between American phonetic spelling and European romanization, nobody can properly pronounce when given the "official" romanization.
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  17. Sadly, firearms training is also lacking in the US military. As part of the USAF, I only trained on the range TWICE in my 8 years of service. One time at basic at Lackland AFB, and the second time at Scott AFB right before I went to South Korea. Even after going from Korea to Fort Carson where deployments to the sandbox were a regular occurrence, there was still very little firearms training.
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  18. Guns behind every blade of grass as often misattributed to Admiral Yamamoto.
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  19. They do have experience in amphibious assaults, it just isn't good experience. Hainan Island was a success, but Kinmen Island was a total disaster. I do agree with you that China would need quite a few boats to pull this off, and the Battle of Guningtou shows that wooden ferry boats will not cut it.
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  20. How? Details. Don't just spew CCP talking points either.
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  21. Reading Michael Pilsbury, Gordon Chang, and Richard Murdock? Sound like it, and if you have then you are 100 times more qualified to direct a war against China than the Generals in the Pentagon.
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  22.  @50megatondiplomat28  The subs are a concern, but then American subs are even better at it than the Chinese. Between the Los Angeles and the Seawolf class, nobody can match the American Attack subs.
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  23.  @fromfareast3070  You seem to forget that the Japanese have already promised to come to the defense of Taiwan. They WILL fire torps at the Chinese. And THAT WILL drag the US into the fight, regardless of what the politicians may try to do. The US Navy WILL respond to any reports of Japanese ships under fire or engaged in hostilities as a matter of standing orders and will NOT wait for Washington to grant permission to engage.
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  24. It may have been bad, but it was far better than what most of the West did. Europe and the US should have followed Taiwan's example, NOT Red China's.
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  25.  @elmohead  Actually, there is. The West foolishly followed Red China's directives via the WHO. Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea took a different path. I know because most Western media was slamming Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea for NOT following in lock step with Europe's disastrous policies.
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  26. One, the Red Chinese government has failed to effectively use soft power. The South Koreans and Japanese have made complete fools of China on that front. As for Taiwan itself, they could adopt Erwin Rommel's proposed defense plan for Normandy which the German High Command rejected (much to their later chagrin). Once they pull back to the mountains, adopt the WW2 Japanese strategy of digging in.
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  27.  @papabetadine724  I was not contradicting you, I was in agreement and providing more evidence in support of your position. And you are completely correct about the Chinese Communists in WW2. They NEVER fought the Japanese. In fact, they signed a secret protocol with Japan wherein the Reds could evacuate through Japanese controlled areas. It was Asia's version of the Molotov-Ribbentrop alliance.
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  28. Ukraine was expected to fall withing three days. It has now been three months. While I don't disagree that there are domestic issues on Formosa that can cause problems, the same thing was going on in the Ukraine. The people of Ukraine stopped bickering amongst themselves and united against an existential threat. Taiwan could theoretically do the same and set aside their internal squabbles in the face of a greater threat once the lead start flying.
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  29. Eh, the Koreans are the same on both sides of the DMZ and yet they are still at each other's throats.
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  30. Terrain, tactics, morale, and equipment all perform as force multipliers.
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  31.  @mokiloke  Not really. It would force the West to restart production in their own countries. Yes, it would hurt for about a year, maybe two, but you badly underestimate how motivating need can be to gear up a society for drastic change.
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  32. ANY use of nukes is a STARTEGIC escalation that WILL result in Trident missiles being fired in response. Western nuclear doctrine does not make ANY distinction between "low yield" and "high yield". Using a tactical nuke is crossing the Rubicon, which is why Putin, while threating it, has not done so.
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  33. Hey Jose, I think your nose is brown from kissing Putin's hind end.
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  34. Don't forget Israel. They have been in a state of readiness since 1948 while still being a democratic society.
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  35. Ukraine will not stop being a country. Poland will see to that, even if nobody else will.
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  36. My opinion is that they should actually up it to at least 5% GDP.
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  37. Indeed. They should temporarily table their disagreements over the islands and present a united front against China in the Parcel Islands. Stopping China there together secures their collective claims against China's aggression.
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  38.  @gonzalos4379  I am not against European nations putting their own interests first. I actually sympathize with nationalist movements and sentiments. The nationalist mentality is VERY easy to understand. The problem is that American elitists and European Elitists are both globalists that don't actually care about what is best for their people. For 80 years Europe benefited from American might being projected on that continent. If Europe doesn't want the US there, I am okay with that. They just should not come begging the US to save them should their bad choices result in the Russian Bear marching through the streets of Paris.
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  39.  @junkeatng  Again, you grossly underestimate the power of Eurasia as a market. Its size has NOT increased much since the 1980s when contrasted with the West. It will simply return to the same system that existed during the Cold War.
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  40. The KMT of today is not the KMT of 1950. Chaing Kai-Shek and Sun Yat-Sen are rolling in their graves at what it has become.
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  41. And that is one of the strategies for Taiwan. Scorched Earth to deny China those factories. It acts as something of a deterrent.
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  42.  @elmohead  I think you are selling Taiwan short. They are more that just their silicon chip factories.
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  43. The problem is that Beijing is in no mood to negotiate. War occurs because diplomats fail to properly assess the situation. The brilliance of Reagan at Reykjavík was that he was not going to piss around knowing full well that the Soviets had no intention of negotiating. Him walking out on them FORCED them to actually negotiate rather than play games.
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  44. Yup, you basically described the Erwin Rommel defense plan for Normandy which the German High Command rejected. Something tells me that Red China would be repeating the blunders of the Battle of Guningtou at Kinmen Island as they do NOT have the amphibious landing craft to handle all of the troops needed to take the island. And using wooden ferry boats to supplement their numbers would be a recipe for disater.
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  45.  @libertylivesin1776  Sadly, I fear you are correct. Or rather, Biden's "hospital orderlies" pretending to be WH staffers would not allow the US to assist Taiwan.
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  46.  @andia968  The Ukraine never had a defense treaty with the US. Taipei DID. Major difference buddy. Ask yourself why the Communists attacked in Korea but not Taiwan. Dean Acheson's Pacific Defense Perimeter INCLUDED Taiwan, but not South Korea.
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  47. Don't be so sure. You haven't read about the Warlord era immediately after WW2 have you?
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  48.  @chrisdt2297  American service members, even the ones sent into a combat zone rarely get to fire off 300 rounds. I agree with you that they should. The funny thing is, many observers have noted that when a firefight occurs, the American side is rather quiet. Those with AKs often engage in "spray and pray" while the US forced show discipline and control by making sure every shot counts.
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  49. Or Erwin Rommel's proposed defense of Normandy that the German High Command rejected.
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  50. Kicked American butt or Kick South Vietnamese butt? The problem with the Vietnam War is that LBJ and Nixon refused to invade North Vietnam and capture Hanoi. Had they done that, things would have been much different.
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  51.  @FiveStringCommando  Now if only Taipei would acknowledge the merits of this an allow their population to arm themselves in the same way.
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  52.  @fransdebruijn6763  The best answer to a deranged gunman is an armed population. By your logic, a semi-auto pistol is more dangerous than a revolver. And yet, a revolver with a smaller number of shots and slower reload time is often able to defeat a semi-auto in a fire fight. Also, the class three full auto weapons are NOT banned in the US. It is just so prohibitively expensive that most don't bother with it. The fact that those folks who have them have NOT gone on a killing rampage is proof that your fear is unjustified.
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  53. Don't forget the collapse of the Japanese Empire. However, the fall of Imperial Japan as a military power ushered in a mercantile Japan very reminiscent of the Dutch during the 18th century. Probably not surprising since before Commadore Perry's expedition, the only outside contact was with the Dutch.
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  54. You can always draw lessons from the experience of others. But I will agree than the crossing of the channel is the first hurtle the PLA needs to surmount before any of the lessons from Ukraine come into play.
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  55.  @MrPeng-yg9iz  Sounds to me like it was the lap dog Hong Kong government that escalated things, not the population of Hong Kong. And yes, the Hong Kong government is run by Beijing Sycophants who were basically appointed by the CCP. "Elections" in Hong Kong is basically the people voting yes or no to whom the CCP choses to lord over them.
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  56. WASPs, WAVEs, and WAACs of World War 2. Yes, that was the US, but the concept can be employed almost anywhere.
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  57.  @kimandre336  Democracy is a multiheaded hydra that is constantly trying to kill its other heads. REPUBLIC governance which the West has forgotten, works when people respect the rules of the system. As far as the UN, it is the playground of dictators and tyrants, so anything they say has zero value.
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  58. The kicker is, WITHOUT US SUPPORT OF TAIWAN. Yes, Taiwan on its own cannot hold out forever against a giant, just like Poland could not against Germany in 1939. But China has not shown particular advancement in military doctrine. Innovation includes adaptability, which is not really something is known for.
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  59.  @J_X999  The Pentagon was completely wrong about Ukraine. The Pentagon blundered in Afghanistan last year. American intelligence has no intelligence. I trust their analysis about as much as I trust gas station sushi. If it were Gordon Chang, Richard Murdock, or Michael Pilsbury who made that assessment, then I would be much more concerned. They HAVE played team China in wargames. And when they have been permitted to play the Chinese how the Chinese would fight, they ALWAYS win.
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  60. Once the lead starts flying, you don't think the Taiwanese would not return the favor?
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  61. When you consider that Ukraine was expected to fall in three days and it is now three months in, I think it is quite easy to say they have already won. And this is hardly over yet. The Third Reich took ALL of Ukraine in just four months. They held it for about two years before the Soviets ejected them completely. Moral of the story: don't count your eggs before they hatch. Don't underestimate the Ukrainians.
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