Comments by "Peter Jacobsen" (@pjacobsen1000) on "Asianometry"
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Sitting here in Shanghai, now on my 45th day in lock-down, my mood is not good. I want this to end, the sooner the better.
And what about the risk of increased deaths? It is true that many elderly people never got vaccinated, so they are certainly at risk. But let's look at the data:
Up until now, roughly 550,000 cases (including asymptomatic) have been found in Shanghai over the last few months. In the same time period, about 550 people have died from Covid for a rate of 1/1000, or 0.1%. Should the virus be allowed to spread uncontrollably, perhaps 50% of the nation's population will get infected (based on numbers in other countries). This would mean that up to 0.05% of the entire population may die, for a total of 700,000 deaths. That may sound like a lot, but China has 10+ million annual deaths from all causes, so an additional 700k means an uptick of 7% compared to now. And that's if it all happens during one single year.
Are Chinese people willing to sacrifice other people's lives? Yes, they are! And so are the rest of us. In traffic, during sports and adventure activities, at work, at war, as punishment for crimes. We are willing to sacrifice lives because we feel it serves a greater purpose of living a full life. During these times, that greater purpose is keeping society functional, letting people live their lives and letting them go about their business. I think that purpose is worth a little risk.
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You are touching on a massive problem that more and more countries MUST eventually find a solution to as we go forward:
-We are living longer and longer. This brings with it higher and higher medical costs that will only increase as we find new treatments for ailments that would have killed our ancestors.
-We need higher and higher (longer and longer) education to stay on top of the development cycle. This means we enter productive life later and later. One can imagine that 50 years from now, you need a PhD just to get a regular job.
-We continuously strive for a higher standard of living. This costs more money, not just in consumption, but also in cost of better and bigger housing with all the modern amenities, better infrastructure, etc.
Shorter productive life combined with higher costs. Something's gotta give and we may need to extend working life way beyond 65/67 years. Perhaps we can find a way to introduce 'soft work' for people of mature age: 20-hour work week, or 9 month work year, or 3-day work week, the old taking care of children, the old tutoring children, the old mentoring the young, low stress work, all at a lower salary, but still with enough income to support daily life. Could you have a road work crew consisting of old people, 2 to 3 working together to carry what one young man can carry, and at 1/2 to 1/3 the salary? Perhaps, perhaps not. But something needs to change.
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