Comments by "Peter Jacobsen" (@pjacobsen1000) on "Evergrande halts trading without giving a reason" video.

Based on the number of young people reaching apartment buying age, minus apartments left behind by city people passing away, there might be a need for up to 40 million new apartments in this decade, and 35 million new apartments in the 2030s. The question is, how many of them have already been built or are under construction?
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@courtly5982 Sure, all those empty apartments in 3rd and 4th tier cities will probably never fill up. Also, my numbers are based on the belief that many young people in rural areas will continue to move to the big cities, a belief that is by no means guaranteed. But even without them, there are still lots of young people coming up already in big cities who need a place to live. While it is true that the population is now declining, there are still a lot more young people than very old people. Around 30 years from now, that will flip.
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@courtly5982 Yes, you said countryside, and I added 3rd and 4th tier cities, which I believe will never fill up, either. I don't see many new apartment buildings in the countryside, though, and if there are large developments in the countryside, perhaps it's not really 'countryside' anymore.
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@courtly5982 It's only now I notice you mention 'apartment supply shortages', when I thought we were talking about apartment surplus. I think the only places there are apartment supply shortages are in 1st tier cities: BJ, SHG, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and perhaps in Hangzhou. Major cities like Tianjin have tons of supply of apartments, but not enough people to live in them.
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