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Peter Jacobsen
South China Morning Post
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Comments by "Peter Jacobsen" (@pjacobsen1000) on "China reports first population decline in 6 decades, with birth rate at record low in 2022" video.
A lot of commenters seem to think that the total number of people is important. It's not. Zhejiang as an independent country would still be rich; Guizhou as an independent country would still be poor. The important part is the growth of the population, whether it is positive growth or negative growth. Since a nation's economy is made up of people, changes in the population size will also mean changes in the economy. No people=no economy. However, for most countries, the annual changes are so small that you will never notice a difference. Only when seen over decades will you see it. So Chinese people's lives will not change dramatically because of this.
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A drop of 850,000. I had calculated a drop of 980,000, so not as bad as I expected, but pretty close. I had also calculated deaths at 10,470,000 against the real number of 10,410,000. Much closer.
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GLF
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@billsmith5109 By the way, according to the book by Mao's former doctor, toward the end of the Great Leap Forward, Mao had finally accepted that millions were starving, so out of solidarity with the people, he decided to forgo of chicken during his regular dinner and add a vegetable dish instead. Very considerate. One can imagine how he identified with Marie Antoinette.
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@HKim0072 You misunderstand me. The small annual drop in population will not have a great impact on people's economic situation. As for the incels you refer to, their situation is related to the gender imbalance, not the growth in total population.
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@HKim0072 "If dudes can't find a partner, it's pretty hard to make babies". That is true, of course. And that is why demographers only concern themselves with women, because they are the ones who make the babies. Whether there are too many men or too few men makes no difference. That in itself will not change how many babies a woman is going to have. (Within limits, of course. If there is only one man per 100 women, it'll be hard for him to fertilize all of them, though I'm sure he'd love to try).
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@gnffoodingredients8405 "Where is the little China?". It's the title of a Hollywood movie from 1986 ["Big Trouble in Little China"]. It's an action-comedy about gangs in Chinatown in San Francisco. It's not about China. Kind of like 'Kung Fu Hustle' (周星驰的功夫), but not as funny. It was a flop at the box office. I haven't seen it.
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@qizhang2032 Wow, your equations must be better than mine. Would you share them here, please?
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Congratulations! I imagine being a mom must be a very special kind of happiness.
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