Comments by "Peter Jacobsen" (@pjacobsen1000) on "Laos takes delivery of train as new China-funded Belt and Road railway nears completion" video.

I hope it'll be worthwhile for Laos. It's a very expensive project for a small, low-income country like Laos. The cost of this project is almost 1/3 of Laos' entire GDP or 1.8 times the country's annual total government budget. I don't think any country has ever spent that much on a single project in world history.
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@raymondcheung409 The video states that the cost is 5.9 billion. That's about a third of 19 billion. If Laos only has to pay 30% that makes it a bit easier, but it would still be equivalent to China spending USD 1.3 trillion on a single railway project. By any measure, it will be a huge strain on any country that put itself in so much debt.
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@raymondcheung409 I hope you're right, but you forgot to mention earlier that while China owns 70% of the joint venture that also means they take 70% of the revenue. Let's see how much benefit this will be to Laos. I'd like to see them develop their economy. Maybe some Chinese private investment in low cost manufacturing will be helpful.
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@raymondcheung409 Yes, I'm all for investment and a big proponent of economic development. Again, I hope it works out well for Laos, but I am a little skeptical with a project this expensive.
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@raymondcheung409 Actually, Laos has been developing quite rapidly since they opened up their country in the late 90s. They receive foreign investment, not only from China but also from Thailand and Vietnam, France and Japan. As a neighbor, it makes sense that China also makes investments in Laos and indeed, China is Laos' largest source of FDI. I don't appreciate your anti-western sentiments and I am not going to engage with them. They are irrelevant to this project.
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@raymondcheung409 My point is that it doesn't matter who invests in Laos. Imagine it's Martians, it's the size of the loan/investment relative to Laos' total economy that worries me, not the country that gives the loan.
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@Sun Wukong What hoax am I spreading? Please express your argument clearly, only then can we have a conversation.
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@Sun Wukong No! You accused me of making a hoax. Or was that just irrational anger from you? In that case, I'll just ignore it.
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@raymondcheung409 Yes, but again, my concern is not with the origin of the loan, but with the size of it compared to the recipient country's ability to repay. Of course Laos said 'please, and thank you', so I hope they made the right decision.
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@Xperiment Sorry, I did not see the second part of your comment. Regarding China's high-speed railway development: The first line was built around 2006-2008, Beijing-Tianjin. Cost was around $3 billion. That was 0.1% of China's GDP at the time. China's construction cost for its entire high-speed railway network of 38,000 km has been about $760 billion, built over 13 years for an average of 0.65% of China's GDP. That is very different from 30% of Laos' GDP on a single railway line (not high-speed. Designed top speed: 160 km/h)
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@Xperiment Laos does not use bull carts for transportation. Have you been to Laos? Have you studied its economic development? Your understanding of Laos does not seem educated. Transportation infrastructure is 'pavement for future', as you say, we agree on that. My concern is the very high cost compared to the economic benefits. I have mentioned this several times. That's the question. Will this railway project help to drive forward Laos' economic development forward faster than they have to pay back the loan? If not, they will lose money.
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@Xperiment I hope you're right. The future will tell. In any case, I have given the reasons for my skepticism and provided some numbers. Perhaps they will make people think.
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@raymondcheung409 Yes, I agree. And I'm happy that our conversation ended in a friendly manner and not with 'my country versus your country'. I'm very tired of these 'us versus them' comment wars.
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@raymondcheung409 Agreed.
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