Comments by "Peter Jacobsen" (@pjacobsen1000) on "China’s wedding plunge worries industry" video.

The number of marriage registrations will probably continue to decline for at least the next 5-8 years, in large part because the number of women of prime marriage age is declining. But by 2028-29, the number of eligible women will increase again for 10 years going forward, and that should lead to an increase in marriage registrations again.
7
Yes, but China is so big that it would take a massive amount of immigrants to make up for the shortfall. Toward the end of this decade, China will lose 5-6 million people every year. By the 2040s, that will increase to 8-12 million every year. I don't think China can attract that many people.
2
@sandraankenbrand No, but in China unmarried women's babies don't get officially registered. That means they will have great difficulty finding daycare, kindergarten, schools for their kids. Women have been pressuring for change, but the government is not yet listening. Same with freezing for their eggs. Married women can get their eggs frozen, but unmarried women can't.
2
Does anyone find it weird that people in Shanghai want their wedding photos with a colonialist/imperialist background, whether it's The Bund or gardens in the former French Concession? Personally I like it, but I'm not Chinese.
2
@wl6020 2029 is 6 years from now. They have all been born. Those who will get married in 2039, 16 years from now, have also all been born. We know how many there are.
1
@sandraankenbrand That's true, but that is the case already now, so the ebb and flow of women of marriage age will still go down and the increase again (and then go down again around 2045). However, should the trend of young people staying single continue to increase, China could have a real crisis on its hands.
1
@wl6020 Look at my answer to other commenters. The exact same question was asked above. EDIT: Jesus, it turns out it was you who asked that question! Look above, my answer is right there.
1
@wl6020 Ok, fair point. The Chinese Bureau of Statistics conducts a census every 10 years, last one in 2020. If you look at the census results, which you can find on Bureau of Statistics website, you can see how many women were born each year. We also know from The Chinese Bureau of Statistics that the average age of marriage for women in China is around 26/27. Based on this information, we can easily find out how many women can get married over the next 20+ years. The number of women reaching the age of 26 will decline to its lowest in 2029, when only around 6.2 million women will turn 26. After that, the number of women increases (again, based on census results) until it will reach a peak in 2038, with 9 million women reaching age 26. Those 9 million women are currently 11 years old and have been counted in the last census. After 2038, the number of women will decline rapidly over the next several years until 2046, when only 5.8 million women reach age 26. After that, the census can no longer help us, but The Chinese Bureau of Statistics does sample censuses every year, counting about 1% of the population. Based on that info, we can estimate that by 2048, there will only be around 4.5 million women reaching age 26. I hope this clears up any questions.
1
@@dddd-vf8zm Interesting hypothesis.
1