Comments by "Peter Jacobsen" (@pjacobsen1000) on "Chinese-made high-speed railway in Indonesia to be fully operational in June" video.

Indonesia has estimated ticket prices at USD 10-20/trip. At a total construction cost of USD 7.6 billion, that means 500 million passenger-trips to pay off the principal, and probably double that to pay loan interest, running costs and maintenance for a total of 1 billion passenger-trips. The loan is for 40 years, so that would require an average of 68,000 passenger-trips/day. But according to the construction management company KCIC, only about 30,000 passenger-trips/day are expected. I hope Indonesia has made the right decision.
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@soowo5942 "So spend the money in wars?" If that's what you prefer. I would prefer it was spent on more profitable projects to help the economy grow. Just like we do in Europe, where most rail projects are profitable.
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@DesignFIaw "Most lines are commerically non-viable." Really? Denmark built the 'Great Belt Bridge' (car and train) in the mid-90s at a cost of USD 4 billion. It was to be 100% user-funded. It became so popular that it was paid back several years before planned and now turns a nice annual profit. A few years later, another bridge (car and train) linking Denmark and Sweden was built for USD 4.6 billion. Also 100% user-funded. That is also profitable. The Copenhagen Metro opened its first line in 2002. The system has been profitable most years since it opened. The Channel Tunnel (train only) between the UK and France was built with 100% private investment for about USD 5 billion and opened in 1994. It has been profitable most years since 2016.
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@heyojayo8642 "Show me one megastructure project that actually makes in on budget in any country." That's easy! Denmark built a major bridge in the mid-90s at a cost of USD 4 billion. It was to be 100% user-funded. It became so popular that it was paid back several years before planned and now turns a nice annual profit. A few years later, another bridge linking Denmark and Sweden was built for USD 4.6 billion. Also 100% user-funded. That is also profitable. The Channel Tunnel between the UK and France was built with 100% private investment for about USD 5 billion and opened in 1994. It has been profitable most years since 2016.
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@Zaydan Alfariz Yes, there's a lot of truth in what you say. HSR is mostly not profitable except for the most used lines: Paris-Lyon, some Japanese lines, Beijing-Shanghai line. Those are all very profitable. However, the Jakarta-Bandung line is more expensive per kilometer than any Chinese HSR line built, so it's going to be difficult to make money.
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@YourSherlock " you know indonesia has 250 million citizen, right?" Why does that matter when the company building it says that on 30,000 are expected to ride on the train. That company knows how many people live in Indonesia. It's an Indonesian (and Chinese) company.
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@huas5350 Yes, these things all help, but remember there were lots of railways in China before they started building the HSR. Certainly, I have traveled extensively by rail in China both before and after the HSR. The HSR has not made me travel more, or make more stops, but it has made me use the train where before I might have taken a plane. Besides, China and Indonesia are very different places. Let's look at one example: Beijing-Shanghai HSR: Total cost: USD 33 billion Cost/km: USD 25 million Annual ridership: 200 million Ticket price: RMB 550 (USD 80) Annual ticket revenue: USD 16 billion Annual revenue/total cost: 0.5 Jakarta-Bandung HSR: Total cost: USD 7.6 billion Cost/km: USD 53 million Annual expected ridership: 12 million Ticket price: USD 10-20 Annual revenue: USD 120-240 million Annual revenue/total cost: 0.015-0.03 Can you see the huge difference? The business case for the JingHu Line is 30 times better than for the Jakarta-Bandung Line. This is the reason I am skeptical.
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@xinyiquan666 " profits because it overprized, the fare is too high". You may think they are too expensive, but they are profitable, as you acknowledge. Profits mean that the country makes money to spend on even more projects.
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@Zaydan Alfariz "Most of the European HSR are upgrades". No, they're not. In order to make an HSR line, you need to rebuild the entire track to accommodate the high speeds. "And it's not even the same as Chinese tech". Considering almost all of the technology used in Chinese HSR was bought/transferred from European companies (Alstom, Siemens, Bombardier) and some Japanese companies, we can conclude that yes, it is literally European technology, from the cars, to the tracks, to the signal systems, to the power systems. China has since built on top of that and now own most of the new IP themselves.
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@huas5350 "The role of the railway is to accelerate social and economic circulation". I agree. "the spillover economic income will be far greater than the income of the railway itself". I hope so. Time will tell.
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@beniceandhappy "most infrastructures in your country is not profitable". Where did you get that idea from? Do you have some evidence of that? (Only transportation infrastructure with user payment, please. Sewage systems and garbage collecting will probably never be profitable anywhere).
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@fajarliong "country development cannot be subject to profit only". I agree, but especially developing countries must be careful they don't end up with 'white elephants' that become more of an economic burden than a help. We need to look at large infrastructure projects in a critical way. We can't just throw money everywhere and say "Oh, it'll be fine"! This is why we make feasibility studies before we start.
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@kucingoyen9965 Well, in that case, why not just borrow an insane amount of money and pave the entire country with highways and railways, starting tomorrow? You know the answer: Because we need to be prudent with how we spend our money. My only argument is that this Jakarta-Bandung line may not have been so prudent.
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@xinyiquan666 "this is cheapest loan indonesia can get, while japan refues to give low interest loan". What is the interest on the loan? Do you even know? Or are you just blowing hot air?
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@maxdc988 "Thousands KM of roads among others in your country received zero payment from users, yet they were still been built". Yes, roads are often free to use, unlike trains. This project is a railway, not a road. People pay to use trains in every country in the world.
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@kucingoyen9965 And where does the state get their money from? From the people!
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@huas5350 The video and my comment is about the Jakarta-Bandung line in Indonesia. It's not about High-Speed rail in China, nor is it about the Chinese economy in general. We can compare high-speed rail in China and Indonesia, if you prefer. You go first.
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@huas5350 You were not born in Indonesia, so it is normal that you do not understand.
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@YourSherlock So many people have replied, I can't remember everything you wrote. Indonesia has a big population, yes, but we're talking about the Jakarta-Bandung line. A person going from Banda Aceh to Medan will not use this line. A person going from Yogyakarta to Surabaya will not use this line. Only people going from Jakarta to Bandung will use this line. Therefore, the 250 million number is irrelevant. The 30,000/day is not 'gas lighting from indonesian businessmen'. It's an estimate from Kereta Cepat Indonesia China, the company that BUILT THE LINE! In the original feasibility study, the number of riders was estimated to be 60,000/day. And no, 'most of the 250 million' do not live in Jakarta. Along the line, including Jakarta and Bandung, there are about 35-50 million people.
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@huas5350 "railways have been rapidly built on the African continent, look at the GDP growth rate of Ethiopia, Kenya or Nigeria" Are you saying the economic growth happened because the railways were built, or were the railways built because of economic growth? By the way, you keep shifting the topic. Can we stick to the Jakarta-Bandung railway, please?
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@vlhc4642 Roads are only occasionally user paid, but railways almost always are. Free train rides are not a thing. The question remains: Will this railway project from Jakarta to Bandung become a growth driver, or will it become a financial burden? It is a question that all citizens around the world should ask their government.
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@Siti Rohana Thanks for your local insights. 🙂
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@robotsubasa Well, rather than chastising me for not having enough information, how about you provide that information so we can all be educated? Perhaps you don't have that information, either?
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