Comments by "Peter Jacobsen" (@pjacobsen1000) on "China Update" channel.

  1. The fact that Prof. Zhang Jun's interview has been allowed to be published is also notable. It is published in GuanCha, a Shanghai-based publication, and thus, somewhat far from the centre of political power, and instead in the centre of economic and financial power (with a libertarian streak). It is not the first time in history that dissenters have been blocked from Beijing and resorted to speak in Guangzhou or Shanghai instead: Sun Zhongshan (Sun Yatsen) in Guangzhou springs to mind. Shanghai was where Mao and his collaborators were able to publish articles (specifically in Liberation Daily) that started the Cultural Revolution, after Beijing publications declined to publish them. This all could be a sign that among the elite there is some growing dissent regarding the official economic path. And it is not impossible that the Shanghai-based dissenters have some backing in the Central Committee. (This is just speculation, though).
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  2. "Maintaining the stability of global supply chains". Translation: We want the supply chains to stay with us.
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  3. Hey Tony, please consider for the next several episodes to give us a small bio for each of the new Standing Committee members, incl. educational and career background. It would be nice to know how many are economists and how many are engineers.
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  4. Wow, only an hour after posting the video there are so many 'investment' spammers in the comments. And what is this 'AMZ11VR' they're promoting? Ah, a quick Google search says it is some kind of crypto-scam. Not very surprising.
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  5. This flurry of cultural, business and diplomatic exchange is straight out of the Chinese playbook. Many viewers have probably heard of 'ping pong diplomacy' or 'panda diplomacy' in China's relations with foreign countries. When China feels a bit weak, they roll out the red carpet, and when they feel strong again, they put on the boxing gloves. It's weird behavior, in my opinion, but it is something you can even see in Chinese society: A small time businessman will lick your boots and take you to dinner, but once he gets rich, he often becomes arrogant and condescending toward others. I suppose it has to do with the very strong belief in hierarchy in traditional Chinese society: The strong do what they want, the weak suffer what they must.
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  6. The gaming crackdown appears to be an important part of Xi's philosophy around 'economic development': Xi wants to advance 'the real economy', i.e. physical products that you can export or build, or which can tangibly improve people's lives, like a shovel, or a railway, or a woolen sweater. The online economy seems 'unreal' to Xi, or fake, or empty. This is the case with gaming, social media, streaming, etc. Frankly, I think it smells of 'old man yelling at cloud', not least because the online industries combined generate trillions of dollars every year globally.
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  7. Once a state starts micro-managing the economy, 'Common Prosperity' begins the long decline to 'Common Poverty'.
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  8. Re. "Foreign forces": There were several protesters holding up white sheets of paper upon which they had written 'Foreign Forces'. I took this to be a sarcastic jab at government propaganda, but apparently the ambassador to France interpreted it as 'evidence'. I can't imagine what other evidence he was referring to.
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  9. I just extended my apartment lease with my Shanghainese landlord. Normally, I extend for two years at a time, but he said "Let's just do one year this time, in case something happens". I didn't ask what he meant, but it is an anecdotal indication that Chinese people may be getting a little worried about the future.
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  10. ASML: "If they cannot get those machines, they will develop them themselves". They would anyway, regardless of whether they can buy them or not. This is a clearly stated objective of China's government: To develop the capability to design and fabricate advanced chips. Another example is advanced turbo-jet engines: They can buy them from Russia or from the West, and yet, they are doing all they can to learn how to build them themselves. But will is one thing, ability is quite another. Nobody who is watching these videos will ever be able to run as fast as Usain Bolt, no matter how deep their desire is.
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  11. I think the US is much better positioned to place restrictions on Chinese imports than the EU. Germany, especially, relies heavily on exports to China and they worry about retaliatory measures by China. But in the end, restrictions will probably happen. If both France and Germany feel their industrial base is threatened by Chinese imports, they will have to take action, even if it hurts. Many smaller EU economies are less threatened by Chinese imports, but they will most likely follow along, as the economic health of the EU takes priority.
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  12. I can attest to Shanghai seemingly improving. Lots of restaurants and shops were closed or had limited opening hours in the 2nd half of December, but now they appear to all be open again. The city is looking more and more like its old self.
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  13. I saw the 'order to stop the spread' circulating on local chat groups. If it was as easy as just ordering officials to stop the virus, surely they would have done that on day one.
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  14. I feel bad for those graduates. When I graduated in the 90s, there was also widespread unemployment within my sector. I can be a tough pill to swallow.
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  15. As someone who has lived in China for almost 3 decades and following local media, I can say that there has never been a shortage of opinion pieces and articles critical of/hateful toward Japan, USA, and the west in general. That includes smear pieces of foreign companies operating in China. Back in Jiang Zemin's days, there was even a big government orchestrated campaign against 'cultural pollution', i.e. western culture. I am quite confident this didn't start when I arrived in the mid-90s, but has been going on since 1949. Just before 1949, Mao was interviewed by foreign journalists where he was asked if China would be friendly to the West or side with the Soviets. "We are going to lean to one side", he said, and that's what they've been doing ever since. This is unlikely to change in the future.
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  16. I also once knew a person from the PLA. She said the same thing: PLA personnel are not allowed to travel abroad.
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  17. From Shanghai: My residential community was put under lock-down this morning before 6:00 AM. As is par for the course, this happened without warning. No one can leave or enter for at least 48 hours, but we can order food online for delivery. It's the first time I experience this, and I admit I already find it very annoying. I saw an ambulance come to take somebody away, but as there is a large number of old people in this community, it could have been for another health reason (there are so many old people in this community that ambulances show up a couple of times per month on average).
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  18. I think property sales will probably continue to decline by 30% over the next few years. I believe there will continue to be demand for around 4 million apartments annually, down from 10 million annually through the 2010s. In the 2030s, that may drop to 3 million annually.
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  19. Shanghai Lock-down: I'm on the Puxi side and tried to go out today to stock up on food. People are hoarding, shelves are practically empty, especially veggies are hard to find. I did get some spaghetti and canned tuna. I'm going to try Carrefour tomorrow. Fingers crossed!
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  20. I just had dinner here in Shanghai in a small restaurant. So small that people have to share a table with strangers. I met a young, local couple, both working in finance. I asked the guy if he thought the market had hit bottom, and he said that in his company, consensus is that the outlook is negative for the remainder of this year. We also touched on trade and I mentioned that Europe and the US are very concerned about Chinese over capacity and cheap products threatening the west's industrial base. They didn't say much, but both nodded thoughtfully, as in they understood the predicament we're all in. It's going to be tough times moving forward. (Most of our conversation was about travel and food. You gotta lift the mood sometimes.)
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  21. Apparently, during the short (less than 100 years) Yuan Dynasty, some Mongolian leaders suggested exterminating the entire Chinese population, but it was deemed more valuable to keep them alive for agricultural production. Ancient history was pretty cruel.
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  22. Infrastructure projects I would like to see (as a resident of China), but which probably won't happen: -More bicycle paths -Dig wires and cables underground -Renovate older housing with insulation for energy conservation -More wind and solar power (though they are already in the process of massive green energy build-out) -Make cities more pedestrian friendly -More nuclear energy plants (this one IS likely to happen) -Sleeper trains on more high-speed tracks
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  23. Pretty astute observation.
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  24. Great work as usual, Tony! I would love to see a video where you break down all the stimulus done so far this year, incl. from central and local govts.
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  25. Shanghai, Puxi: My community got locked down at 1 PM today. They had found a positive case inside so we're starting 2 days early. Nobody could say exactly what the situation will be going forward, but one guy told me it could be a 14-day lock-down. I only prepared food for 4-6 days, so after that it'll be a 'Communist Fast' (a government orchestrated, but unintentional famine). Maybe I'll publish the results in a lifestyle/wellness magazine.
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  26. I'm not surprised travel numbers are up so much for this May day holiday. Remember, a year ago all of Shanghai couldn't even go out into the street and lots of other parts of China was in semi lockdown. Additionally, those who were allowed to travel were afraid they would get caught up in an outbreak somewhere, leading to a sudden quarantine.
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  27. There are still lots of elderly people in China who use cash exclusively. Many of them find it hard to grapple with modern technology. Younger people, like Tony (and myself), tend to only use electronic payments.
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  28. "Apologies, there's some construction near my room". This comment brings a smile to my face. Urban life in China has been like this for over 25 years: There's always construction nearby.
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  29. Hello from Shanghai. I was given an 'exit pass' Friday (May 20) and additionally, two 'entry passes' to two out of three supermarkets that are open in my area. It was great to get out for the first time in months. The line for the better supermarket was an hour long, but it was worth it. I got most of what I needed. From now on, I should be able to go out when I want, though we're advised that exiting the community should be for necessary purposes only, such a buying food. Still, though, almost nothing is open. On my street everything is closed.
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  30. Ok, it's 10:21 PM here in Shanghai, 9 minutes to Pelosi's estimated arrival in Taiwan. But I'm going to sleep now, so if WW3 starts, at least I will die in the midst of sweet dreams.
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  31. That's a wonderful group photo of New Zealand's population in the video opening.
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  32. Hello from Shanghai. This is just from my local neighborhood: Local vegetable market has been closed for several days, but most shops and restaurants are open. McD's only allows pick-up. Last night people in hazmat suits banged on my door and then handed out self-testing kits; first time I've tried that. My community is open. Streets look normal. Delivery of packages and food only to community main gate.
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  33. The President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Jin Liqun is the father of the economist Keyu Jin who has recently been making the rounds in a western media tour to promote her book "The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism". I haven't read the book, but in most interviews she makes the case that essentially everything is fine in China and it is still the best place to invest.
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  34. Confucius: "The laborer must obey his master." Marx: "Workers should rise up and overthrow the capitalist class." Xi: "See? Your ideas are totally compatible."
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  35. People should go to SCMP and read the whole interview with Richard Koo. It's a good one.
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  36. Great issue. Always nice to hear the opinions of Singapore's leaders.
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  37. We already have a high-speed railway line going Shanghai-Jiangsu-Anhui (Hefei). I've traveled on this twice. According to China Daily, the new line will go Shanghai-Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou-Zhenjiang-Nanjing. Not much different from the other one.
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  38. Housing price drop of 0.02%. In downtown Shanghai housing prices are around RMB 100,000/sqm, so they dropped RMB 20 to RMB 99,980/sqm. Even Chinese people, who normally cannot resist a discount, probably won't get too excited about such a small drop.
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  39. Amazing that Shimao is at risk of being delisted. Shimao is a very famous developer based in Shanghai and is responsible for several of Shanghai's most iconic building projects, incl. Shimao Riverside, a residential development completed around 2000 and back then seen as one of China's most prestigious residential communities. Also Shimao Plaza right on Nanjing Rd. with the Royal Meridien Hotel. Perhaps a kind of Chinese Icarus, who flew too close to the sun.
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  40. Apparently, 40% of BMW's global (ex. Germany) sales are in China. They do love to show off prestigious cars, those Chinese. And it's understandable that BMW and others don't want to lose that market. However, Chinese people have a great desire for 'face giving' luxury products and, barring a total embargo, will likely do whatever necessary to get their hands on high-end goods from the West, even if relations sour somewhat. Remember how Chinese people were burning their Nike shoes because of the Xinjiang issue? Turns out in the grand scheme of things, Nike's China sales were not affected at all. We can decouple, just do it slowly. Besides, China has been on the path of decoupling for years. They make sure they source their resources from a multitude of countries. Nothing wrong with that.
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  41. I met* Chuck Schumer in China once. It was in 2006 in Shanghai. He and Lindsay Graham were on a little bi-partisan senator tour of China, trying to gauge support for a proposal the two of them had fielded together: A 24% tariff on all imported goods from China. I repeat, this was in 2006!! At the time, both I and most foreign people in China thought this was an totally insane idea. This was at the height of globalization and outsourcing to China. Outsourcing seemed like THE future. Schumer's goal was protecting American workers; Graham's goal was containing China. The proposal never went anywhere. But that was a different age. *When I write I met him, I mean we just shook hands. We didn't buy each other rounds of beers.
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  42. Yes, Wang Yi is back in the Foreign Minister seat, but I don't think there has been any mention of Qin Gang's name. There were also some minor shuffles in Hong Kong.
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  43. Re. Decline in marriages: We shouldn't put too much into these figures, because number of marriages is to a large extent decided by how many young women are 'available' for marriage. From 2010-2015, approximately 12 million women reached prime marriage age every year (age 26-27). Now we have reached a period where relatively fewer women reach that age; only around 7.5 million women reach age 26-27 this year. That number will continue to decrease over the next several years until 2029, when only 6.5 million women will reach prime marriage age. After that, the number will increase again to 9 million in 2039, but then it will decline precipitously far into the future.
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  44. I used to quote Party slogans to my Shanghainese friends and ask them which ones they liked best. They looked at me like I was crazy and said "Peter, nobody pays attention to these slogans and nobody cares what they say".
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  45. I was a little surprised, too, but it is likely because a very large percentage of private enterprises are made up of small factories in the interior, small retail businesses, and restaurants. Those enterprises tend to employ mostly rural employees with low educational attainment. State-owned enterprises and government organs tend to hire better educated people. Those who work in large and famous private enterprises, like Alibaba, Tencent, Lenovo, BYD, etc., probably have a much higher salary, but they are, after all, only a small minority of the labor pool.
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  46. Re. the comedian Li: His fate puts our western debate about 'cancel culture' somewhat into perspective.
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  47. Question for those who are economically literate: If China invests $3.15 trillion into an $18 trillion economy (which is over 17%), does that automatically mean GDP will grow by 17%? That seems like an extreme growth rate, even for China. In fact, it seems like someone made a typo and added an extra zero somewhere.
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  48. Government: "China refuses to lie flat during this pandemic. Therefore we must insist that you stay at home on your couch!"
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  49. As long as your audience is non-Chinese, you use a non-Chinese platform, and you report in English, you can say quite a lot in China. If he were to start posting his reports on a Chinese platform, it would be a very different matter.
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  50. "Race Weapons": While there are some ailments (not necessarily viruses, toxins or bacteria) that are more prevalent in certain races and ethnicities, that is a far cry from even contemplating a 'bio weapon' that targets one specific race while excluding everyone else. There has never been any disease that only affects one race or ethnicity, and it's hard to imagine such a disease could even be possible. We're just too similar for that to be possible. At the most extreme, you might be able to make a 'bio weapon' that turns all East Asians blonde and blue eyed, hahaha.
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  51. Well, for now we don't actually know what it is, which is what is being pointed out in the video. We can speculate, but we have to wait for the data.
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  52. One of the downward drivers of consumption is the relatively low number of 18-33 year-olds. That cohort is the lowest it has been in about 50 years. We've all been young once and we know that young people spend like there's no tomorrow. 240 million young people (aged 18-33) is still a very high number, but it is 90 million fewer than there were 10 years ago, a drop of 27%. The number of young people in that age bracket will increase a little bit over the next 15 years to 255 million, but then it will fall precipitously.
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  53. Economic change often happens slowly, which may seem boring to some. This is not least the case in China, where the govt. prioritizes stability and will do whatever it can to prevent sudden large swings. We're unlikely to see a big crash in any part of the Chinese economy/society. More likely a decades-long slowdown or stagnation, Japan-style. Nevertheless, if you prefer more sensationalist news reports, there are several other channels that provide those.
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  54. Blizzard, -53 F, cold war, all in the same video. Coincidence? Someone is getting cold feet.
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  55. Report from Shanghai: My office building has been shut down for the week and we're all working from home. My residential community, which is in a different district, will offer nucleic acid tests tomorrow (Tuesday). It's not mandatory I think, but a negative result will give me the freedom to go more places. Otherwise, the city seems normal, people on the street shopping, etc.
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  56. I'm European and I think many Euro-businesses want to continue the strong trade relationship with China. It's a money thing. But European businesses will go anywhere there's money to be made. They are neither pro- nor anti-China, they are pro-profits. If America's efforts push production of many classes of goods to other countries (Vietnam, India, etc.), European businesses will follow. There is no heart involved, only brain.
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  57. "Substantial lunch break". It's not so much lunch that takes up time, but the obligatory nap time afterwards.
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  58. Hello from Shanghai. We truly live in interesting times. Let's see how it all pans out. 5.3% for 2022 may end up being difficult, or perhaps only achievable with major government investments.
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  59. Looks like the age of cooperation is over and the age of competition will begin. You can no longer copy my homework.
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  60. What you're describing is not a good analogy, because you're describing a house that is NOT collapsing, but slowly falling into disrepair. That is by definition not a collapse.
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  61. Gao Peiyong's commentary in People's Daily about Common Prosperity seems to me to be more a critique of the 'lying flat' and 'let it rot' culture.
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  62. Thanks for this excellent episode, Tony. Even though I follow China closely, and have been for over 30 years, I rarely see other outlets discussing ideological issues as in-depth as you did here. Even Willy Wo-Lap Lam rarely goes this deep.
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  63. A burger with foie gras and extra cheese is a Luxembourger.
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  64. "Picking quarrels and provoking trouble (寻衅滋事罪)" is a standard criminal offense in China, and one of the most common with which people are charged. It has no clear definition, and you can apply it to almost anything and anyone.
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  65. Top notch edition!
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  66.  @chubbymoth5810  It could mean that, but I doubt it. He's retired and lives in another, fully paid, apartment. My first thought was that he was worried about a potential war over Taiwan.
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  67. I think he has a good understanding of what can and cannot be said.
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  68. Well, it's becoming increasingly hard to find the bright lights in China's economy. No, China is not collapsing, but also not speeding ahead. Instead it is trudging along on a rocky path. There seems to be some growth in consumer spending, especially on services like travel and restaurants, but it's certainly not booming. Most everything else appears stagnant.
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  69. Re. Weather: In shanghai the longest heatwave ever ended today. Temps down to around 30 C and we got some rain. It's really quite comfortable to walk outside. In a few months it'll be cold and miserable.
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  70. Great to hear directly from Taiwan. We shouldn't be surprised that politics is guided by domestic issues, just like everywhere else. The international media has recently pounced on the defeat of Finland's prime minister Sanna Marin, considering she was such a young, pretty woman. Turns out the Finns don't really care about that either way, but are more concerned about public spending. What a surprise!
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  71. I'm sure it's always a fine time to be a paleontologist, especially if you're in north-east China (for Cretaceous) or south-west china (for Cambrian)
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  72. 2.28 million sqm of new housing supply for August is only about 25,000 apartments. That is a very low number, about a quarter of what they used to sell 5 years ago.
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  73. This is the first I hear of foreign countries imposing import restrictions on Chinese seafood for environmental reasons. Does anyone know which country/countries this is in reference to? EU? US? Japan?
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  74.  @skydragon23101979  It's just based on young people coming up minus old people dying, adjusted for rural-urban migration.
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  75. A lot of people still feel government bonds and government-associated bonds are a very safe investment. They sincerely believe the government will hold up their end of the bargain and they don't have much better places to put their money. However, I would not be surprised if many of those bonds are also being bought by State-Owned Enterprises who get told to support the system.
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  76. Yes, I also noticed the People's Daily didn't claim that the foreign media was factually wrong. Sometimes China's media sounds most like a high school 'mean girl'.
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  77. So almost like Scientology.
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  78. For China to reach the US GDP by 2035, it would need an average annual growth of around 4.2%. This may be achievable over the next 3-5 years, but beyond that I am very skeptical. But then again, I've been wrong before. I used to think China would keep growing 7-8%/year well into the 2030s.
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  79. Unlikely. People buy property where they can afford it and where it makes most economic sense, i.e. the potential for value growth. Last year's drought was bad for agriculture, but city people weren't really affected, at least not long term.
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  80. "tax cuts for the richest Danes". Rather, it's a tax cut for the working class and the lower and upper middle class, and a tax increase for the richest 0.3% of income earners. The biggest winners are the upper middle class making US$ 107,000 (DKK 750,000) who will get 1.6% more in take home pay.
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  81. China Tianrui Group was a bit of a special case: 70% of shares owned by one family (the original owners), murky lending and investment deals, lots of bad signs. And in the grand scheme, it's a relatively small company in the cement sector. They were the penny stocks of cement.
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  82. There are still around 17 million people turning 28 every year. Many of those are newly married and will need a home. So there will still be some apartment sales going forward, just not as many as before. I would estimate 4 million new apartments per year are needed in the 2020s and 30s, compared to 10 million sold every year in the 2010s. By around 2045, there will be more urban homes going on the second hand market than young people coming of age to pick them up. By then, around 80% of China's urban housing stock will be less than 60 years old (rural housing is not counted as part of the real estate market in China).
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  83. The mercantilist trade and economic policy China seems to operate under is not unique in the world. For smaller economies like S. Korea, it can make sense without drawing the ire of trade partners, but for a huge economy like China, this kind of policy can only last for so long. Eventually, all the world's customers buy Chinese goods and then there are no more people to sell to. Or to put it differently, every Korean person has about 160 potential customers around the world, but every Chinese person only has 6. Something's gotta give.
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  84. In my understanding, China's nuclear power stations are quite modern, but not the future types people talk about so much online, like sodium or mini-plants. Some of their technology was acquired from France's Areva, others from Westinghouse. Wikipedia has a good introduction to China's nuclear industry: 'Nuclear power in China'.
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  85. I'm in Puxi, too. A kind of apathetic acceptance seems to have set in, but I'm entertaining thoughts of all Shanghai residents suddenly deciding enough is enough and all just leave their compounds simultaneously.
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  86. I live here and I like the drone footage backdrop. I recognize most of it, but some I don't. I see enough of "dirty shops w old apartments" on a daily basis.
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  87. According to Reuters, China expects to see a 2.5% negative growth in steel prod. this year, so from 1.018 billion tons last year to around 0.993 billion tons this year.
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  88. Latest news re. Global Times, from SCMP: Hu Xijin will retire immediately as editor-in-chief, but will continue to write the occasional opinion piece. Global Times is largely his creation, so this is a big deal. No indication he has been forced to retire, though. I think he's 64.
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  89. Panda: Although it is fun to see how the panda meticulously peels off the bark of each bamboo stalk, there is still something very odd about an animal that has chosen to always eat only one kind of plant, and a hard, fibrous one at that. Why not try a cucumber or an apple every now and then.
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  90. China, of course, has a lot of military hardware, but they probably couldn't supply Russia with the thing Russia needs most: Artillery shells. Back in the 90s, China decided to switch from the old Soviet/Russia caliber of 152 mm to the NATO caliber 155 mm.
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  91. And those employees who already own an iPhone may very well demand that their employer pay for a different brand. The Chinese are pretty good at arguing their own case, especially when it comes to money.
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  92. Re. Fewer marriages: We shouldn't forget that one of the reasons for fewer marriages is that there are simply fewer women in the prime wedding age, 23-29. There are only a total of 64 million in that group, or ave. of 8 mill/year. Just 5 years ago, there were an average of 10-11 mill/year.
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  93. Re. FDI, it should not be surprising that there continues to be some healthy FDI into China as some of it will just be existing companies 're-tooling'. Eg. VW and GM in Shanghai are both getting heavily into electric vehicles and they need to re-tool some assembly lines and perhaps even build new factories for electric motors, etc. That is all just part of keeping up with consumer demand. You buy a new machine for the factory floor? That is also FDI.
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  94. I agree, and I think the media and politicians make way too much of this, regardless of which party is in power. It wouldn't matter if Yellen had literally kow-towed. In the end, it's the policy actions of the US that matter, not whether something 'looks bad'.
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  95. A-shares in the Chinese context is a type of share only tradable by Chinese citizens and only traded on the mainland exchanges. B-shares are open to both foreign and domestic investors. A-shares tend to be mostly large state owned corporations. There are also H-shares. Those are Chinese mainland corporations traded on the Hong Kong exchange. Those are open to everyone.
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  96.  @sayamalu2495  "Puxi starts from 1st April." Really? All of it? God, I don't want to go through another lock-down.
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  97. The channel has made clear many times that these sensationalist titles are necessary to drive growth of the channel. You should ignore the titles and just watch the channel for the content. And the channel never actually says it is 'the end'.
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  98. Peter Hessler is one of the best chroniclers of contemporary China at a human scale, rather than at a state-level scale. I strongly recommend his books on China to everyone: 'River Town', 'Oracle Bones', 'Country Driving', all great, great books! His wife's book 'Factory Girls' is also excellent.
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  99. Hu XiJin: "It is overly idealistic to expect adequate preparation". That's an astonishing statement to make! It could either mean "Hey, you're stupid to think anyone could handle this situation", or it could mean "Don't expect professionalism from the CCP".
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  100. Greetings from Shanghai. Still healthy, but expecting to get infected any day now.
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  101.  @mindpuzzle81  As for moving production out, I've been thinking that we will see an S-curve: First a trickle, then mass movement, followed by the last stragglers. Of course, some production will stay if it makes business sense, e.g. serving the local market.
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  102. Shimao seems to be selling some of their best properties, including Shimao International on Shanghai's Nanjing Rd, next to People's Square. I contains a Le Meridien 5-star hotel on a long-term lease + a shopping mall, so decent revenue should be guaranteed. It truly is prime real estate. (Le Meridien is a high-end hotel chain originally owned by Air France, then UK-based Forte Group, then Granada, then Compass Group, then Nomura Holdings, then Lehman Brothers, then Starwood, and finally Marriott).
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  103. It depends. Downtown areas 2nd hand homes are around RMB 100,000/sqm (USD 1,400/Sqft), but if you go out to the suburbs at the end of the metro line, prices can be as low as RMB 25,000/sqm (USD 350/Sqft). Average income in 1st tier cities is around RMB 150,000/year (USD 23,000). So one year income can buy you 16 sqft downtown, or 65sqft in the suburbs.
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  104.  @stage6fan475  I don't really understand the situation now. Friends of mine get all their movies as Torrent files, but I don't know how common that is and I'm too old to get into the whole torrent thing. Some years ago, they cracked down on DVD copies and I think those shops are all gone now. It used to be a lot more fun around here, with police stations right next to black market DVD stores and brothels. Perhaps a clean-up was needed, but it's become a little too clean now, more suitable for a retirement home.
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  105. Goldman Sachs mentions the decline in workforce growth, but there is a simultaneous negative growth in consumers, which may have an even bigger impact.
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  106. Isn't that a rather exclusive neighborhood? Big old mansions and the Shangri La Hotel.
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  107. Considering there are only 14.5 million people aged 23, 11.5 million university graduates is an astonishingly high number (79% of all in that age bracket). Of course, some might be a little older or younger, but those numbers are similar.
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  108. Excellent episode!
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  109. I've never been to YiWu and I didn't know they had such good Turkish and Lebanese food. But we don't hear much about YiWu anymore, unlike in the 2000s when it was constantly in the news as China's 'trinket town' (sorry for the contemptuous attitude, but I'm in Shanghai, so it should be expected).
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  110.  @MrToubrouk  Well, alarming for those unfortunate enough to have bought their shares. And you could say that in a healthier construction sector, they would probably have been fine. But now those with shaky legs will fall, and only the strongest will survive. We're already seeing similar things happening in the EV sector.
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  111. 1:18 "GDP in 2022 was 1.2 trillion yuan". That has got to be a mistake. Perhaps 120 trillion?
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  112. This channel is about China, not American domestic politics.
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  113. That's highly unlikely. Water borne diseases include typhoid, cholera, dysentery, hepatitis, but not respiratory illnesses. It's almost in the name that respiratory illnesses are airborne.
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  114. Well, Q1 4.5% is reasonably good growth. Different media outlets will focus on either the good numbers or the bad numbers. There is certainly no shortage of economic challenges in China, but I think the reality is that China's economy is no longer booming, nor is it collapsing, it is just slowing down. My prediction is that by 2030 we will see annual growth numbers between 2 and 3%.
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  115. Re. Hu Jintao: I agree with the 'bad health' hypothesis. A public purge of an old, former leader is very out of style of the CPC. It also goes squarely against Confucian ethics, upon which much of Chinese culture is based. Deliberately humiliating an old man and former national leader is not something I would expect to see, anywhere, anytime.
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  116. A little unusual in 2008, but 20 years earlier it would have been commonplace in that part of China. Not so further north, though. I went to a fresh market (wet market) in Guangzhou in 1988 and it was a virtual zoo. Dogs, cranes, turtles, snakes, pigeons, quails, pheasants, raccoons, everything alive and ready to be butchered and chopped up. My friend and I actually ordered raccoon for lunch later. Quite tasty, gamey, and in the Chinese tradition, boney.
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  117. I found my apartment through Lianjia. They have a good search system. In my understanding it is a franchise type company where individual realtors can join. I know nothing of their financials.
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  118. Well, let's see. I'm European and have been following this incident. The ship is in international waters and it is unlikely it will allow itself to be examined. Without proof, there is not much we can do.
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  119. How much are they down? A ball park figure is fine. I think many manufacturers are really tightening their belts, and selling product at close to cost.
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  120. I've noticed that China's imports always trails exports but generally follow the same trajectory. I'm guessing this is because many of the imports are components that get re-exported as parts in finished products. I'd be curious to know how many imports stay in China (like wine and whisky, handbags, soybeans, Swiss watches, etc.).
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  121. Re. US chip imports: I'm looking at the chart and am puzzled that imports from Taiwan are relatively small. My conclusion is that the country the chip is imported from (in the chart) is not necessarily the 'fabbing' country, but rather the packaging country, thus big exporters like Cambodia that don't have any fabrication plants of their own.
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  122.  @joaodecarvalho7012  I think one of them is 'ChinaObserver', another is 'ChinaInsights'. Not sure who is behind those two channels, though I suspect it might be FaLunGong. The video in question, from today, mostly discusses demolitions of neighborhoods in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Urban development down south has generally been different from further north.
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  123. It's a little different for people who exclusively direct their voice at a foreign audience. Think of Michael Pettis who sits up in Beijing, just outside the 4th ring road, and makes one negative prediction after another. Should the political situation deteriorate, Michael Pettis and Tony are more likely to just have their visa extensions denied, and even that is not likely to happen in the current climate.
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  124. Presumably only people in the Americas. Here in Asia, his videos are published in the evening.
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  125. Regarding trusting statistics/data: People might have a good reason to distrust data from some countries (eg. China). Nothing wrong with that, it is always good to preserve a healthy amount of skepticism. However, if you only distrust the positive numbers but trust the negative numbers, then it is not the numbers that are the problem, it is you. Unfortunately, I feel we see this more and more, not just with respect to China: People simply choosing to trust the data that support their preconceived ideas, and distrust the data that go against those ideas. That is not how a rational mind works, nor does it help you understand the world better. We should be openminded enough to let in new ideas, but not so openminded that our brains fall out.
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  126. Yes, it is usually in early October, but final dates are usually not published until a few weeks before. It's considered an internal party meeting, so informing the public is not a priority.
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  127.  @skydragon23101979  The ability to make some things does not mean the ability to make everything.
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  128. Interesting data. Here in Shanghai, the registered cases say 90-95% asymptomatic. Xinhua News Agency says today that Shanghai has 9 severe cases which is around 0.1% of symptomatic cases. Approximate cases for Shanghai since March 30: -Total asymptomatic: 250,000 -Total Symptomatic: 11,000 -Total severe cases: 9 -total deaths: 0 (though several people in an elderly care facility died, but the news reports that they died because the care staff got Covid and were put in quarantine, thus leaving the elderly without care. In my view, that's even worse than dying from Covid).
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  129. Last time India had a larger population than China was before 500 AD. That's a good while ago.
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  130. We're now 5 months into the year and the picture is quite clear: No massive rebound, but also no collapse. Seems to me that going forward, 'natural' growth will lie around 3-3.5%. Whatever target is set will have to be made up by govt. investments.
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  131. Great episode!
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  132.  @joesmith9139  As the video mentioned, Shanghai is such an important city that closing it all down at the same time could have very deleterious effects on the whole country. Secondly, Shanghai is neatly divided by a river, so in principle, you can treat it as two separate areas. How it works in practice is a different matter, since the two parts are connected by 5 bridges, 15 road tunnels, 1 pedestrian tunnel, 14 cross-river ferries and 13 metro lines.
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  133. It's not quite that many and I'd be interested to know where you got those figures from. I think there are around 330 million housing units in China, of which around 300 million are occupied by 900 million people, leaving 500 million people in rural areas (rural houses aren't counted as part of the housing market, for a variety of reasons). Of the 330 million housing units, about 180 million were built in the last 24 years, with the remaining 150 million existing from before 2000. About 30 million units are either unfinished or finished but unoccupied. Many of those are located in 3rd and 4th tier cities, where no one wants them. Tier 1 cities have quite healthy housing markets with very little availability, but they only make up a relatively small slice of the total market.
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  134.  @ChiefBridgeFuser  Thanks for that. I see the quote is from a CNN article. It's an extreme view, and the article also mentions that there there are an estimated 7 million vacant homes, even less than I mentioned. But 7 million vacant homes is only enough for about 20 million people, a very small number when compared to the 1.4 billion people in the country. In any case, 7 million vacant homes (plus 10 million unfinished homes) is a lot, no where you are. It'll likely take 10-20 years to fill them up, and some may never get occupied because they're in towns where no one wants to live.
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  135. It's one thing to write an angry email if a graph or a data set has been misinterpreted, but to write one because reality doesn't conform to one's beliefs, that is delusional.
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  136. Balochistan = Ba-loo-chee-stan / Ba-lo-chee-stan. Those are the pronunciations I have heard.
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  137. What part of the world is your country in? China's economic challenges have been widely covered in the western press.
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  138.  @skydragon23101979  Yes, I think the 3rd and 4th tier cities and below are probably overbuilt. Not to mention the many projects built outside cities in 'vacation spots', say along the Shandong coast, or the Hainan coast. So many apartment towers there, most of which I suspect will remain empty forever. As the economy slows down, the most affected will be the lower tier cities, pushing young people to seek their fortunes in the more successful cities: The big ones. What's the term? 'Go big or go home' or something?
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  139. Well, over the next 25 years, there will be 200 million couples (potential couples, if they match up) coming of age who may be prospective buyers of a home. Not all of them will be moving to/living in urban areas, but perhaps 75% will, or 150 million couples. At the same time, approximately 200 million couples will pass away after a long life. Only about 40% of those own property in urban areas, or about 80 million apartments. This adds up to a potential need for 70 million new apartments over 25 years. There are currently around 30 million apartments available (unsold plus sold but empty). This ends up giving a rough estimate of 40 million new apartments needed over 25 years, or 16 million needed per decade. So, the first two decades are covered by available supply, plus a little extra. Only by 2042 will we begin to see a real shortage again. After 2055, there will be so many old people passing away and leaving apartments behind, and so few children being born, that the need for more apartments is negligible.
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  140. The initial clip of a panda mum and cub walking in the snow is animated/AI-generated. It looks very real, but there is something uncanny about it that gives the plot away. Impressive how far AI/animation has come.
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  141. Seem like a very reasonable assessment to me. My predictions were along the same lines.
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  142. Nice with some new drone footage in the beginning of the video, which I believe is from Erhai Lake in Yunnan. Beautiful area.
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  143. Everybody needs an enemy. Reality TV shows are based on this principle.
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  144. Are you mixing up BRICS and BRI, or have I completely missed something?
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  145. Re. Land subsidence: I've lived in shanghai since the mid-90s. Even back then, the local media regularly talked about land subsidence. The article referenced in the video mentions that Shanghai has sunk 3 meters (10 feet) over the last 100 years. And yet, Shanghai suffers much less from flooding incidents now than it did in the past. This all goes to show that despite land subsidence (which is real) or rising sea levels (which are also real), human ingenuity and hard work can easily mitigate the impacts of these environmental threats. Whether Shanghai or The Netherlands, we have not only arrested flooding events, but in both places we have actually reclaimed even more useful land from the surrounding sea. Every year, Shanghai grows bigger and bigger by preventing the silt of the Yangzi River from flowing into to the ocean and instead using it to build up land. The land where Pudong Airport, Shanghai's main international airport, is located was under water just 30 years ago. 1300 years ago, just around the end of the Tang Dynasty, all of Shanghai was just a swampy marsh. So yes, nature keeps giving us problems, but our engineers are pretty damn good at solving those same problems.
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  146.  @stage6fan475  Oh, forgot to answer the translation question: I believe you download Torrents with different language subtitles, but I don't know how good they are. We used to get some good laughs out of the inept translations.
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  147. They appear widespread, but actually they are not. Though it depends how bad a building has to be, to be classified as 'tofu dreg'.
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  148. Civil aircraft will be a good litmus test. China likes to play Europe and USA out against each other, but they need airplanes and only we can supply them. What are they going to do if we both make them angry?
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  149.  @zenithdawn9663  Oh yeah, I completely forgot about those "Ukrainian Bio Labs".
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  150.  @taiwanisacountry  Who is your comment addressed to? It's as if you postulate that I claim you can. I have made no such claim, quite the opposite.
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  151. EV sales slump notwithstanding, X-Peng, NIO, and Li Auto all have some great looking cars. Very different from the drab models otherwise seen in the Chinese car market.
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  152. In practice it's not that bad, though it may sound bad.
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  153. What's the corgi vs. chicken fight? Something to do with the queen's dogs?
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  154. I'd like to se someone (perhaps not this channel) take a deep dive into which industries will leave China first and which will stay on. For example, it's one thing to move an assembly line to Vietnam, but if all the components are made in China first and then shipped down in boxes, it's not much of a difference. Despite having lived in China for decades, I am still sometimes astonished when I open my Taobao app and see the multitude of products made here. It's basically everything you can imagine, and even a lot of things you can't imagine. As an example, whatever kitchen knife set you are thinking of buying, it seems most likely it will be made in China. Recently, I've seen assorted western branded kitchen paring knives sold in bulk for $1/piece. These are not fakes, but excess production.
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  155. People like Tony and I and other viewers of this channel, and tens of thousands of others live here. We have a pretty good idea of what is going on.
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  156. There's also the Jamestown Foundation, but only in writing, no videos. They have some very good and deep, some might say downright nerdy, analyses of China's geo-strategic actions.
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  157. Excellent update, as usual. An observation from the ground here in Shanghai: We're seeing an increase in government investment in 'Common Prosperity' infrastructure projects here, among them early beginnings of installation of elevators in the thousands of 'public housing' neighborhoods, 6-story walk-ups built in the 80s and 90s that make up around a third of all housing in Shanghai. This will be popular with the aging middle class that occupy these apartments (or flats, as you'd say), it will provide jobs for construction companies and local elevator manufacturers, but perhaps it also illustrates how difficult it is becoming to find projects with good, or any, return on investment. There's also a fair bit of commercial office space being developed in my area, but it seems to fill up very slowly.
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  158. Typhoon season usually starts in summer. Many typhoons over the season with several hitting China every year (it's a big place, after all, so hard to miss). In my many years in Shanghai, I only remember a couple of direct hits to the city. The worst was in 2014, I think. The streets were littered with tree branches, twigs, leaves and other debris. A handful of people got killed, mostly fishermen who had not made it to port in time. Some billboards, shop signs and awnings were blown to pieces.
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  159. There may very well be lots of Chinese people who will buy these bonds. They have little else to invest their money in. It used to be real estate, but now they will put their money in anything that can give just 2-3% per year.
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  160. People living in China know how WeChat can increase productivity, but 'trial by WeChat', that's a new one for me.
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  161. 0:12 I thought that was President Xi arriving in Saudi Arabia by camel.
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  162. Considering their rigor in testing (here in Shanghai we've gotten tested every 48 hours), I find it mindboggling that they don't simultaneously offer vaccinations at the testing site. They have the medical staff on hand and they could strongly 'encourage' any laggards to get vaccinated. My community has an overweight of elderly. I don't know how many are vaccinated, but a constant nagging would persuade a large number to get the jab. There hasn't even been any mention of getting vaccinated during this lock down. Nothing in government advisories, or community chat groups, or from the Neighborhood Committee.
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  163. Brunei and Malaysia both pump a lot of oil from the SCS, thought I don't know if it's considered 'deep sea'.
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  164.  @ChinaUpdate  Thanks, Tony. BTW, your city of Ningbo, would you categorize that as 2nd or 3rd tier? Sometimes I feel like Hangzhou should be considered a 1st tier city, but there doesn't seem to be clear divisions.
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  165.  @gtw4546  Thanks, let's see how it goes.
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  166. Regarding the PMI: Does anyone know how these numbers are tabulated? For example, if you simply survey Purchasing Managers, you could have the following example: 10 manufacturers each have 10% of the market. You survey them once, and the growth number is flat. Then one manufacturer goes bankrupt and the rest take over that share. Even with a flat market, at the next survey, those 9 will now report a 9% increase in production. Such a scenario will give a false result, so that's why I'm wondering how it's tabulated.
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  167. It seems very different in Asia. Whether it is Japan, HK or Singapore, high rise apartment buildings generally seem very well kept and orderly.
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  168.  @bluerisk  Well, there's no doubt that housing built in the 1990s and 2000s in China seem to quickly deteriorate, but that may be due to poor construction quality. Apart from that, there really is a difference with Western countries. You hardly ever see vandalism, graffiti, youth gangs or social decay in Chinese residential complexes. That could change in the future, of course, but I doubt it. There is a cultural difference. I'd like to see us westerners learn from East Asian countries in that respect, though I don't know how we'd do it. Culture is hard to change.
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  169. They're not 'utterly dependent'. They're Iran's biggest buyer, so that gives them leverage. But they can also get oil from so many other places, and indeed, they already spread their oil purchases around the world, exactly because they don't want to be too dependent on one country.
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  170. Re. demographic data around marriages: We should remember that there are a lot fewer women of prime marriage age now than there were in 2013. 27-year-old women in 2013: 12.5 million 27-year-old women in 2021: 8.0 million
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  171. Re. infrastructure spending, the field of energy generation will still be a good place for the govt. to invest. Nuclear, wind, solar, Ultra High Voltage powerlines. These both help reduce China's need for imported fossil fuels and help to achieve China's goal of reducing CO2 emissions. I don't think China needs more airports, expressways, high speed rail, or at least they won't help the economy grow much, if at all.
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  172. No, fundamental restructuring in this context means allocating more money to consumers and less to manufacturers. This could be in implementing a better social security system, or better healthcare system, or better pension system. The idea is that if people have access to those things, they will feel more comfortable spending their money, rather than saving them for retirement, or saving them for a potential extended hospital stay. In other words, lots of money would then be freed up for domestic consumption.
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  173.  @doujinflip  Yes, that's a major issue for short term visitors.
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  174. I'm sure there is at least one company in China declaring bankruptcy daily, as there is in the US and every other very large economy.
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  175. I remember when it was 8.3 to the Dollar. It stayed that way from the mid-90s until around 2007.
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  176. "In order to have a strong economy, first, you must convince the people and the world, that one has a strong economy." While this may sound a little wacky, it harks back to Chairman Mao, who said something to the effect of "The masses can accomplish anything, as long as they have the correct political ideas, and the correct guidance". We can take this even further back to Karl Marx, who, many years after publishing his theories was both surprised and disappointed that the workers had not yet started a revolution and overthrown the capitalists. He concluded that the working class simply did not have the intellectual capacity to understand his wonderful ideas, not even stopping to consider that perhaps the working class HAD thought about his ideas but decided instead to keep their jobs and fight for better working conditions by setting up labor unions. One could almost reach the conclusion that Marx, Lenin and Mao were the ones who had the least confidence in the working class they claim to represent.
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  177.  @skydragon23101979  I do not doubt the will of the Chinese people to succeed in every endeavor. Unfortunately, the phrase you mention is not always true. There is not always a way, no matter how great the will is.
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  178. Certainly, China could sell its $700 billion in US treasury bonds, and that would probably cause some volatility in the market for a period of time, but let's not forget that the US bond market has a value of over $50,000 billion and the stock market has a value of $12,000 billion, so $700 billion can easily be absorbed by the market.
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  179. A few counterpoints: "manufacturing is collapsing". Manufacturing in China is far from collapsing. Follow the charts often presented here on this channel regarding PMI. It's stable, and often increasing. However, in the long term it will probably decrease. "China will NOT be able to afford its military expansion". Even poor countries can expand their military: North Korea, Iran, Russia are good examples. It's all about how much of GDP you allocate to defense spending. China will be able to afford military expansion for decades to come.
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  180.  @seabedsand  "blame China". We don't blame China, we just intend to protect our economies from Chinese imports.
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  181. All this match fixing that has been going on in Chinese sports for years makes me wonder if China would propose a match-fixing deal on a China-Taiwan war: How much would Taiwan need to be paid to lose the fight in round one?
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  182.  @sayamalu2495  I better stock up on food today.
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  183. But a genuine depression is not very likely. Even a recession is unlikely, at least in the near future. More likely is a slow creep towards zero growth, taking perhaps 15-20 years.
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  184. Nice with a view of some Kiwi sheep, for a change.
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  185. Yes, pretty steamy in Shanghai today. 40 degrees. At 7:30 PM it was still 38.
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  186. It's impressive how adept it is at peeling the bark off before chewing into the core.
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  187. Huh, that's interesting. I have yet to catch anything. Are you and your friends up north? That appears to be where the bulk of sickness is. Perhaps later in the winter it will move down south.
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  188. I'm going to guess that data out tomorrow will show retail up slightly. It's just guess, but I feel that people here in Shanghai are slightly more optimistic, slightly more willing to spend. Tomorrow we'll know if I was right.
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  189. I think Christmas 2022 was already a bit muted, wasn't it? People in the west focus on the basics now.
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  190. You're channeling my thoughts exactly. Countries in the Global South most likely don't care where the money comes from, as long as it comes to them. Once China's largesse dies down, India's might be on the rise, and then all those countries will court India. And we can't blame them. Countries, especially in Africa, really need a lot of foreign investment to help propel them into the middle class.
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  191.  @jacksmith-mu3ee  "Heard china collapse for 60 years". Nobody started talking about that until 25 years ago, and back then it was just a crank. More serious concerns about China's economy started surfacing 15 years ago, but it is still only cranks who talk about 'collapse'.
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  192. It could be true, there is just not any evidence that it is true. It could also be true that ribeye steaks are at a 90% discount at Target. Are you going to jump in your car right now because of that?
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  193.  @beckyconstantinides2546  Yes, it is often hard to get the real numbers. All potential investors should be aware of that.
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  194. Tesla is doing quite well in the Chinese market. They're all over the place here in Shanghai. They are also good with PR. They say little, but stand by what little they say. And Tesla Shanghai export a lot of their vehicles, which was part of the deal they signed up for.
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  195. Re. Movie imports: When I first came to China in 1996, the quota for foreign films was 6 per year, and not all of them were equally interesting. Fortunately, already back then, the black market for films on disk was thriving, with basically every Hollywood movie available for a small sum.
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  196. Not to be confused with 'a lethal blow': https://youtu.be/07w9kvwE5oc
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  197.  @skydragon23101979  Sure, but it will take a long, long time before China can replace Airbus and Boeing. So far, only one C919 aircraft has been delivered to a customer. In comparison, Airbus and Boeing combined have delivered over 4000 aircraft to China. And finally, let's not forget that the C919 is made of mostly imported equipment.
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  198.  @discursion  I mean 'for the well-off'.
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  199. What? Diplomacy is 外交。Passive aggressive is 被动攻击. I don't see any connection.
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  200.  @Andy-P  It's possible. NIO, while being a beautiful car, is still deep in start-up debt and sales figures are still relatively low. But they have a lot of value in design and brand.
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  201. 5.5% seems high, but if they're pumping USD 500 billion (being 2.8% of GDP) into the economy, that'll help. However, just the last two months poor home sales alone will result in a drag-down of around 0.45% of GDP.
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  202. My first thought was that this is a place companies can buy and sell the data they've collected, but that seems too unethical, even for China.
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  203. I doubt there's going to be a major and sudden crash. Much more likely is an annual slowing down of growth by 0.3% on average over the next 7-10 years. (Obviously this is a very rough estimate).
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  204. Hah, I was wondering where that was. My guess was north-eastern city, or possibly Hangzhou. Is the church and surrounding buildings original (German)?
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  205.  @in-human1698  "20-30 percent for double patterning on 7nm chips using DUV." Wow, that's very low. So each usable chip increases 4-5 times in cost.
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  206. It's like putting your hand on the stove and realizing it's not nearly as hot as people told you it was going to be.
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  207. I'll try to give an answer. There is no official list of tiered cities, so people will often disagree. -First tier: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen -Second Tier: Other major cities, especially along the coast: Hangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Ningbo, Xiamen, and some major provincial capitals in the interior -Third tier: Large cities in the interior, including many provincial capitals -Fourth tier: County seats and smaller cities, though in the Chinese context, they may still have a population of 1-4 million. Another way to look at it, used to be popular in the expat community: -First tier: Has tons of international brands and Shake Shack, Burger King, Starbuck's, McD's, KFC -Second tier: Has Starbuck's, McD's, KFC -Third tier: Has McD's, KFC -Fourth tier: Only has KFC
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  208. I guess Q3 GDP numbers will come out next week.
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  209. Companies can't be traitors. They are loyal only to their owners, regardless which country they are based in.
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  210. It was also Bush 2s (Dubya's) choice of pronunciation. It never failed to make me gnash my teeth.
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  211. True, but that is not an indicator of trouble. Many successful economies are net importers of food: Singapore, Iceland, Japan come to mind.
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  212.  @pearlyung  Pork is pretty cheap in China, around $3.5 a pound, some cuts less.
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  213.  @DuxSupremus  "they've completely ruined the habitability of their country through pollution". Certainly China has its fair share of pollution, but not so much that is has a major impact on food production. China's main problem in this area is the shortage of arable land. Large parts of China are mountainous, and the land up there is only just enough to feed the local population. However, it is correct that efficiencies in agriculture are not on par with the west. In a pinch, China could probably feed itself, but it would have to forgo of meat and sustain itself on just grain and vegetables. The vast amount of China's food imports go toward animal feed.
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  214. I believe Tony is based in Ningbo.
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  215. Re.: Shanghai. I received an 'exit pass' today and left my community for the first time in almost two months. Went to a nice supermarket, got some coffee beans, butter, cheese. It was amazing! "Freedom, freedom, freeedom, woooooaaaahhhhh, freedooooooom" (Aretha Franklin)
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  216.  @gtw4546  Haha, perhaps, but there's not much to do outside with all the shops closed.
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  217. China's population will not halve by 2050. That is practically impossible, barring some major natural disaster that kills 500 million in one fell swoop. We can expect that almost everybody under the age of 50 right now will still be alive in 2050, when they will be 78. There are currently about 850 million in China under 50, so even if Chinese women stop giving birth tomorrow and never have another baby, there will still be those 850 million left by 2050. 850 million is 60% of the current total. More likely, from now until 2050, at least 200 million babies will be born, giving a total of 1.05 billion. That's a worst case scenario. My prediction says 1.2 billion in 2050, a prediction based on TFR slowly falling to 0.9 babies/woman, as is the case in S. Korea.
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  218. That's my question, too. You can make 7nm chips on a 28nm machine (which is what they have), but apparently only at around 60% yield, which means 66% higher price per chip, or around $100 higher. Perhaps Huawei is willing to eat that extra cost.
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  219. China has traditionally stayed out of problems concerning other countries, as long as they don't also concern China. It has been like this for over 2000 years. It remains a highly insular culture.
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  220. Olympic arms race: 100 missiles in 9.78 seconds.
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  221. Re. Fewer marriages: We shouldn't forget that one of the reasons for fewer marriages is that there are simply fewer women in the prime wedding age, 23-29. There are only a total of 64 million in that group, or ave. of 8 mill/year. Just 5 years ago, there were an average of 10-11 mill/year.
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  222. 4:50 "60% of people aged 16-24 had no more than a high school education". Ok, but let's remember that people don't graduate high school until they're 18-19 years old, and they don't get a college degree until they're 22-24, so even if everybody ends up getting a college degree you would still only have 67% who have graduated high school and at most 10-20% who have graduated college. So those numbers don't sound that alarming. Edit: Oops, I jumped the gun and didn't hear the next sentence: "Excluding people currently enrolled in school, 70 only have a high school degree". Well, still not such bad numbers as again, within that age cohort, only about 67% are old enough to have graduated high school.
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  223. The water issue? Do you mean the quality of drinking water, or the available water for irrigation and hydro power production?
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  224.  @thomasherrin6798  Well, the drinking water quality is about the same as it has been for years. You shouldn't drink the tap water, but you can shower in it and brush your teeth in it. There are people who drink tap water, but it can have a bad taste. May also be contaminated with heavy metals. As for irrigation, it appears that there are still water shortages in some regions. SCMP just recently posted a video of a farmer whose crops were short of water.
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  225. If you're a foreign invested company and you have proof that you paid all your company taxes, then transferring your profits abroad is not hard. There's paperwork, yes, but no real stumbling blocks.
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  226. Yes, much anticipated good news. It will likely be accompanied by 'no vaccine or testing requirements'. Chinese tour operators and hotel owners are looking forward to this.
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  227. If you've been following this channel for long enough, you will know that Tony is very aware of China's demographic problems. You also seem to be contradicting yourself: You write 'Since their economy is based on export driven growth, and not domestic consumption, there will not be a big enough population to sustain their economy'. If their growth depends on exports, then domestic consumption is less important than production.
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  228. I think the Chinese government and people generally take their cue from the UN climate panel. That is in line with what most countries and people do.
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  229.  @ChinaUpdate  Yes, we shared some great stories: I told them how I once got scammed in the guy's home town Guilin, and the girl told me how she once got scammed in Vienna. Lots of laughs.
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  230.  @naguoning  "Of course in China BYD is slapping VW." Not quite. VW and BYD sales are neck and neck for 2023, with each having sold just about 3 million vehicles, including both EV and gas cars. I live in Shanghai, and we certainly see a lot of Chinese EVs, incl. BYD, but there are also still a lot of the old brands being sold: VW, BMW, Toyota, GM, Hyundai, etc. These are all popular and respected brands in China, and people like to buy them (still). There is no indication that Chinese people have suddenly decided to reject western brands.
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  231.  @Will_Smith_Slapping_Xi_Jinping  It's a think tank that covers global threats, so mostly military/strategic content. They primarily cover Russia/Central Asia, Middle East, China/N. Korea, and terrorism generally.
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  232. Great episode, which brought me to the Sinification Substack. Much reading to be done.
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  233. I think it's a little deceptive of Bloomberg to refer to general budgetary expenditures as 'stimulus'. We don't normally call other countries' government budget 'stimulus', it's just the annual budget. Nevertheless, the remainder, 9 trillion Yuan, or 1.4 trillion USD, is still a very large stimulus at roughly 7.7% of GDP. Without it, would China's GDP for 2022 grow at all?
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  234.  @woohu8443  But what's included in that 30%? Also the annual government budget? I just wouldn't count that.
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  235.  @Leshic2  Thanks for your comment. I am well aware of the numerous solar parks in China's west and north. Yes, they are truly massive! There are also huge wind parks in the northwest, going on along the highway for hours and hours.
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  236. On the face of it, 'New Productive Forces' sounds like automation, robotics, AI, and anything that can increase productivity. It'll be interesting to follow what they come up with.
    2
  237. My God, it's gloomy!
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  238. Since China no longer publishes any Covid data, we have to resort to speculation: The funeral home person quoted in Tony's video says there's a one-month waitlist to get your loved one's body cremated. We can then guess (and it is only a guess) that this equates to twice the number of cremations they would have in a normal month. Since, in pre-Covid China, about 10.1 million people died in a year (= 840,000/month), we can estimate that in the most recent wave 840,000 excess people have died. At least. Could be more, but probably not less.
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  239. I think it's all of the above. In the end, businesses will go where they can make money. Lots of businesses are quite committed to the Chinese market, especially consumer brands. But those who only/mostly manufacture for export may seek more favorable countries as a base. Generally, low-end manufacturing is leaving / has left. On the other hand, I see more western mid- and upper-market life-style brands coming in. Even if economic growth is flatlining, there will still be some people who might buy your product. That being said, if I were an investor I would go elsewhere unless I were investing in my own business. Much of the low hanging fruit was picked a while ago. India might be the next 'miracle', but it's too early to say.
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  240. Re. Covid deaths: It is always tragic for the nearest when a family member dies, but whether China's Covid deaths are 60k or 2 million, it probably doesn't matter in the long run. Most of those dead were likely to die over the next decade, anyway. They just took a shortcut, so to speak.
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  241.  @oxunion  Haha, maybe you're right. I may just be making assumptions based on their outfit.
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  242. re. the C919: From a state perspective it makes sense to make national airlines buy that aircraft. It's not quite up to par, with shorter range and worse fuel economy than the A320 or the B737, but letting major Chinese airlines buy the C919 is essentially the State buying from the State: Bad for business, but good for national strategic priorities. Almost all Chinese airlines are state owned, except for some small carriers like Spring Airlines.
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  243. I don't think exports are down 60%. They are still growing, though slowly.
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  244. There is probably some potential for good profits in the Chinese stock markets now, given how cheap it has become, but I doubt it's going to be boom-town from here on: My guess is some improvement, followed by leveling out.
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  245. Yes, I would strongly recommend you buy a lot of food to prepare, so you don't end up like us down here in Shanghai.
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  246.  @thePOWERofART-11  Actually, the testing today was fine for me. They came to the neighborhood, put up some tables and I got it done in 30 minutes. Most of the wait time was taken up by old people who couldn't figure out how to register online.
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  247.  @tonysu8860  "25-33% of GDP contributed by a Real Estate Development sector". I think that 25% number (sometimes it's 20%, sometimes 30%) was based on 'Chinese telephone', with one news organization upping what they heard from another news organization and so on. When I looked into it last year, I could never find a source for those numbers. Rather, looking at the amount of money invested into the housing sector and comparing with GDP, it looked much more like 9-15%. It's also possible the 25% figure was true back in 2015, but not since then.
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  248. @Peak White Monkey Yes, perhaps limited. But I remember in the 80s in my country (in Scandinavia), commuter trains were filled with graffiti. We eventually got rid of most of it. I do firmly believe that we in the west have a cultural aspect that encourages/allows a youth culture that is not only very creative, but also violent. I clearly remember this from my teenage years. But maybe these things go together: Freedom-creativity-violence. If faced with a choice, I will go with freedom and take the consequences, rather than the other way, but it would be nice if we could reduce the negative aspects.
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  249.  @armymenaroundthehouse  You can never know for sure, but if they don't have the howitzers, why keep the shells?
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  250. It's interesting that Huawei's three newest chips all use the 7nm node. Their best lithography machines are designed for 28 nm production, but you can still make 7nm chips on them, just with more waste. It's like taking 10 photos of a distant object with an un-stabilized camera: Some of them will come out ok, others will be fuzzy and useless. But could Huawei and SMIC also go down to 5nm? And if they can, what will the yield be? My guess is that current 7nm yield on 28 nm machines is, at best, 80%. They may be willing to eat that loss, and the state is probably happy to chip in to cover that loss. But can they go on like this for years, or will they be stuck at 7nm?
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  251. Perhaps if you continue to follow this channel, you will gradually learn more about China, including their currency. Then you will no longer have to proudly declare your ignorance.
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  252. Hey Bob, I'm in Shanghai under lock-down. Generally speaking, people set up 'shopping groups' online within the community. Food can be delivered, but due to lack of personnel, they only accept bulk deliveries. As an example, I volunteered for a shipment of fresh vegetables a few days ago. We ordered 90+ boxes of mixed vegetables. It took 2 days to get all buyers together and collect money, then 2 days before the goods were delivered. My volunteering consisted of receiving and distributing the goods together with two other residents. We all had to suit up in protective clothing and all boxes were disinfected. It took about an afternoon. There are shopping groups for all sorts of things: Toilet paper, soft drinks, meat, condiments, etc. My community is 99.7% Chinese, so we don't expect bulk buys of anything Western (butter, coffee, cream, cheese, etc).
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  253. I think in 2010-2020, there were 10 million housing starts annually. 2000-2010: 7 million housing starts annually. 1990-2000: Much fewer. Early 90s were when people first had the opportunity to actually buy their own home, but only few could afford it. In total over 30 years: Perhaps 200 million apartments/homes. That also fits with the urban population having grown from 300 mill to 900 mill.
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  254. Sounds like this recent discovery is in the northern part, but of course there is also oil in the southern part: Malaysia and Brunei get most of their oil from the South China Sea.
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  255.  @Andy-P  Yes, since the SCS is not demarcated, every claimant country will be prospecting for oil in competing zones. Vietnam cooperates with Russia on oil exploration, sometimes in Chinese-claimed areas. This has created a bit of a headache for the parties that supposedly are 'best friends'.
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  256. Earlier this year, SCMP quoted a Chinese demographer who must have had access to more detailed census data than what are made public. He said that in the three biggest and most prosperous cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, the Total Fertility Rate is only 0.7. That made me raise my eyebrows. However, the people needed to move into those cities won't have to be peasants, but could well-off people from a 3rd tier city in the interior. Those people will then be replaced by up-and-comers from a county seat who will be replaced by chance seekers from a distant township, and so on.
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  257. I think generally speaking (not just in China), a pension scheme gives people peace of mind about their old age and thus makes them feel more comfortable spending their money on consumption.
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  258. That's just speculation without evidence. Would you base any forecasts on that?
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  259. Many of those who invest are companies that already have a big footprint in China and who are planning to expand in the country. If their business is going well in China, they may want to build a new manufacturing facility, or an R&D facility. Remember, even in a troubled economy, there will still be some that make a lot of money. Back in the 2008 financial crisis, many people were struggling, but some were having great success, and just off the top of my head, Netflix and Starbuck's were both doing very well at that time, I think.
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  260. Considering the vast majority of European auto brands sold in China are also manufactured in China, and with Chinese SOEs as partners, I don't see why China would try to block that. I think Europe should, and would, welcome China auto brands to manufacture cars within the EU. It doesn't matter if the car a European buys is a BMW, a Toyota, a Kia, or a BYD, as long as it is made in Europe, helps create European jobs and contributes to EU's economy.
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  261. Re. Rahm Emanuel: 1) We know him as campaign manager during Obama's initial run for president in 2008, and as Mayor of Chicago, and in both jobs he was known to be quite, er, outspoken. So it could just be his personality coming out. 2) I am not one for conspiracy theories, but it is possible that the new Biden admin said "Let's have our own wolf warrior. Not in China, but in a nearby country that is known for having a contentious relationship with China, and then let him rip". It's better to have the US ambassador in China be the 'good cop', developing a friendly relationship, and the 'bad cop' in nearby Japan, spouting mad criticisms. It seems to work well so far, and I'm not sure China knows what to do about it.
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  262. Isn't most of the footage taken during the daytime?
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  263.  @skydragon23101979  Yes, I agree.
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  264.  @SiRasputin  Well, no one can accuse you of being weak of faith. And who knows, maybe you're right. All I'm saying is that there are no guarantees of future success.
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  265.  @SiRasputin  "underestimating anyone is perilous". I am not underestimating China. I am saying there are no guarantees all its dreams will be fulfilled. That is the case for every country, and for every individual. "you're forecasting the demise of an ancient civilisation". I challenge you to find anything I have written that even suggests such a forecast. Anything! I'll be waiting.
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  266.  @SiRasputin  "perhaps not you, but many in the West". Well, then address your complaints to them, not to me.
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  267. I asked in my community in ChangNing, but was told there are no plans to let us out for now. They're awaiting instructions from above. We're now 14 days since last case, so in theory we should open today or tomorrow. But with the new directive we may have to wait until June.
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  268. I don't think 5.2% is unrealistic. It's a bounce-back number. Bounce-back years will always have relatively high rates to even out the downturn from the prior year. Just like 2020 to 2021 (2.3% to 8.1%, giving an average of 5.1%).
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  269. beyond people is pork, delicious pork.
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  270. For decades now it has been a standing joke that civil servants do very little: A nice cup of tea, break out the newspaper, chit-chat with colleagues. When a citizen comes in for help, the facial expression is 'Oh no, not another one....' Perhaps that is not too dissimilar from what we can observe in the West.
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  271. Watch 10-20 Zeihan videos in a row and you don't have to watch him again: From then on it's all re-runs.
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  272. I agree. He is pretty strong on foreign policy. I'm not American, so US foreign policy is my main interest. Americans may have a less positive view of Biden. Seems to me most Americans have little interest in US foreign policy.
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  273. Not quite. In 30 years there will more likely be 300 million fewer than today, or around 1.1 billion.
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  274.  @fabiandonvil  "those are figures using the official data". Ok, so what are the real figures? Or the better figures? Are we just going to make them up to suit our own narrative? Is there any data for 'the real figures'?
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  275. I completely understand the need for sensationalist video titles. Here are some more suggestions: "Biden and Xi had a phone call. This is what happened next...." "Xi destroys Biden in expletive-filled tirade over the phone" "The Biden Xi phone call that could destroy the world" "America-China phone call: Who won?" "Biden and Xi had a phone call, and people on X are not having it!!" (followed by an article made up entirely of random people's tweets) "The truth about the Biden Xi phone call" "The Democrats and CCP stroking their members during steamy phone call". "The call is coming from INSIDE the building"
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  276. I agree. It seems more like a propaganda weapon than a bio weapon: "Hey, the foreigners are out to get us"! "Beware of the American body snatchers".
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  277. Reading the comments here, it seems that many commenters believe that the words 'collapse' and 'decline' mean the same thing.
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  278.  @ChiefBridgeFuser  That's true. People have no good options for investing their money at the moment, so they put it in the bank, or possibly buy state issued bonds. It's a real problem going forward. As for property ownership, you do actually own your apartment, that is your property. What you do not own is the land beneath it. That is what you lease for a limited time. I believe it used to be 30 years, but is now possibly 70 years. What you get is a 'Land Use Rights Certificate' which gives you the right to live on that land. Some of the early certificates have already run out, and so far, people have been able to renew them for a small fee for another 30-70 years. However, nobody can know for certain if these rights will be honored going into the far future. So far they have been.
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  279.  @recondax  Sure, you are free to use any number you prefer. Regarding basing population numbers on salt consumption, you would first need to know how much salt the average person eats. I don't think there's any data on that, and it might even be impossible to get such data. If we use your preferred numbers, then we have to use them in other fields, too. That means China's per capita GDP is not $13,000 but $20,000. It also means that China's Total Fertility Rate is not 1.1, but closer to 1.7, higher than even the US, and that would mean a much slower population decline than currently assumed.
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  280. The problem with both Martin Wolf's article and the response to it is that both simply rationalize the past by putting a positive spin on it. This is akin to saying that it was a positive development that you got fired from your job, because you now have more freedom, or that it was good that you were hit by a bus, because you now have three months to spend in bed, and work was getting stressful, anyway. There's a certain level of 'Ah Q-ism' in this kind of thinking: Every loss can be redefined as a win. Back when China had 9+% growth rates, nobody said that this growth was bad, or low quality growth. It was just growth, and people loved it.
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  281.  @YourHineyness  "the cumulative effect would be by now an economy worth 47 quadrillion dollars". You can make a simple calculation to figure out what the growth rate would have to have been over the last 40 years to end up with an economy of $47 quadrillion. It's not something you have wonder about, you can calculate it.
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  282. The French are world leaders in public protests. But they'll probably come around to accept the changes.
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  283.  @Llortnerof  😂
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  284. There is a big difference between cities. Hypothetical comparison with the US: 1000 new apartments in Detroit will have a very different fate than 1000 new apartments in Manhattan.
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  285.  @VastChoirs  Ok, let's see when it comes to Shanghai.
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  286.  @simonkimber1152  Wow!
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  287. It's good to be skeptical, but you can also get so skeptical that you no longer believe in anything, and that only brings you back to square one.
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  288.  @kennethli8  I've lived in China for over 20 years, speak the language, etc., etc. In the end, it isn't whether we should believe numbers uncritically, but consider what numbers we have access to. There are numbers from the government, other numbers from places like Beige Book, and then there are numbers we just pull out of our ass. That last category is the least reliable.
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  289.  @tenglim4406  Ok, but that makes the potential growth even bigger. This investment is many times larger than anything China has ever done before, including the big one after 2008, which I think was $800 billion.
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  290.  @thomasherrin6798  "don't take my word for it, I'm not an economist". Yes, that's clear from your rambling comment. In the future, try to narrow down and write in a more precise way. Deal with one issue at a time.
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  291.  @tonysu8860  These are great points. Certainly, investment in the healthcare system would be very welcome in China. There are some good hospitals here, but not enough, and trying to see a doctor is like trying to get a ticket to a Beyonce concert.
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  292.  @kennethli8  I disagree.
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  293.  @yoyolim538  I'm not sure what you mean. I'm reporting what I see in Shanghai. What is your problem with that?
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  294.  @bollyfan1330  I cannot. I have no access to numbers that you don't also have.
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  295. So far there has not been an announcement regarding resumption of tourism visas, but that could happen any day. It's still not that easy to get a visa.
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  296.  @oooTACooo  It doesn't really work that way.
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  297. Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a bacteria causing infection that is treatable with antibiotics and China produces lots of antibiotics. But the sheer amount of affected patients may cause bottlenecks. I don't think this should be considered as dangerous as Covid-19.
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  298.  @raimundomartin5459  Yes, you're spot on! I'd love to visit Latin America some day.
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  299.  @civiltrialatty  Try to get a hobby. It'll be good for you.
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  300. The current problem is that there are no buyers.
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  301.  @skydragon23101979  Why wouldn't Chinese parts pass air worthiness tests? In any case, the C919 may be a good aircraft. Let's see how many COMAC can produce in 2023, and then in 2024.
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  302.  @skydragon23101979  "I see real competition 5-10 years time". Hey, it's possible, who knows? But Brazil's Embraer has been making passenger aircraft for decades now. They have a slice of the market for smaller single-aisle planes. I think they're COMAC's main competitor for the time being.
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  303.  @skydragon23101979  "Why should US govt pass c919 air worthiness and create competition and same for Europe?" I guess for the same reason they have issued/accepted certificates for each other's aircraft, and for Embraer's aircraft, and Bombardier, and Ilyushin, and Tupolev.
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  304.  @skydragon23101979  That's not a bad idea. With Embraer's expertise and China's manufacturing prowess, that could be a very beneficial partnership for both parties. They should get started as soon as possible.
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  305. Purely anecdotally, I know of IT companies that offer RMB 300,000/year ($45,000) starting salary, but that is partly because they want to choose from the top 10% of graduates of the top 10% of universities.
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  306. Very dramatic!
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  307.  @discursion  Ah, no, I can see that. That is much lower than I expected. I thought it would be a very desirable area, so close to the lake.
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  308. "Best estimates". Frankly, that seems way off. Where do those birth- and death records come from? In order to have anyone believe those extraordinary claims, you need to provide some pretty strong evidence. If you're right, what does that say about China's housing sector? China's automobile sector? It would mean that home ownership and car ownership rates are twice what the government says. It means that GDP/capita is twice what the government says. It means that the Total Fertility Rate is twice what demographers say, meaning 2.2 children per woman rather than 1.1. If you estimate that the current population is only 700 million, how do you account for all the other numbers?
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  309.  @DeMews  "Someone here on YT said it could be as low as 300M". And does that make it true? I could say there are only 2 million people in China, but without any data to support that, no one should be so naive as to believe it.
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  310.  @GARYGUYTON-c7i  "How reliable are those figures? at lot of issues with official PRC stats.". Certainly, I agree with that. But any other proposed number MUST have some data to support it. Otherwise, it's just something people pull out of their ass.
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  311.  @drdiabeetus4419  "they could be taking the real numbers and inflating them to the same degree as the population". Yes, that is true, but there are some numbers that are verifiable, among them trade figures. Those figures come to light on both sides of the trade equation. Both the buying country and the selling country keeps track of this. So we can be pretty sure that China's trade figures are relatively accurate. So if GDP is only half of what the Chinese say, but trade figures are what we see, that would mean that China's annual GDP growth is twice what we're being told, ie. 10% rather than 5%. China had a trade surplus of $1 trillion (verifiable numbers) in 2024, so if their GDP is only $9.5 trillion, it would mean growth is 10.5%. Many other figures are verifiable: Agricultural imports, oil and gas imports, etc. If China's population is so low, they would be consuming twice the amount of calories/capita we are being told, and burn twice the amount of fuel/capita we're being told, both of which would indicate a very wealthy economy. You simply cannot make up your own numbers without it skewing the picture somewhere else. You MUST be able to make all the numbers fit into a bigger equation.
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  312.  @modeus5914  "lies?". Sure there are lies, but just because someone lies, doesn't mean you can then substitute their lies for your own lies. You MUST have supporting data.
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  313.  @DeMews  Ok, YouTubers say all kinds of stuff without evidence, but you will never hear a serious economist make these types of claims without having some strong evidence to support those claims. If you are skeptical about the Chinese government's numbers, which you should be, you do yourself a service by being skeptical about other people's numbers, too.
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  314. Interesting! I don't get a context warning when I watch China Update.
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  315.  @eurospec  Sounds like it.
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  316. I feel sorry for Sun Hung Kai which is building that massive office/shopping mall complex in Xujiahui. They're putting a lot of money into that project. Right next door, Grand Gateway seems awfully quiet these days.
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  317.  @loot6  I agree.
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  318. I wrote another comment about this, but I have no expertise in the area. What yields of 7nm chips do you think they get on their 28 nm machines? 80% 70%?
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  319.  @dcc70  "you're taking a big risk." Not really. Western people like me have been here for many years. Getting screwed over by the authorities does happen, but it is extremely rare. But I suppose you could say the same about swimming: Sometimes people do get killed by sharks, but has that prevented you from going to the beach?
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  320.  @dcc70  Certainly there are sharks in the waters surrounding Taiwan and Singapore, though Singapore doesn't have many good beaches. Singaporeans go to Malaysia and Thailand for the beach, but they both also have sharks. In any case, few, if any, foreigners who live in China do so because they support the local government or the political system. That includes people like Tony and myself. But we are also not too concerned about getting 'disappeared'.
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  321.  @dcc70  I understand, so I got back to the original argument toward the end.
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  322.  @dcc70  Thank you.
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  323.  @AutoTrawler  My comment was partly in jest. After all, in a first tier city like Shanghai, prices are still going up, and will likely continue. During and after the sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2008, housing prices in Manhattan continued to go up. Some places always have a long line of people hoping to get in.
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  324.  @willywonka4340  "one naval blockade by a foreign adversary can end these countries". Yes, that's probably true, but it would be pretty hard to blockade a large country like China. Can we please try to be realistic, rather than engage in fantasies?
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  325.  @DuxSupremus  "So China is already cultivating more land than the US is. " I think you may be misreading the numbers: USA Total area (metric, I'm European): 9.8 million sqkm. of which 16.8% is arable. Of the arable land 44.5% is farmland, which gives Arable: 1.64 million sqkm Farmed: 0.73 million sqkm China 9.6 million sqkm. of which 11.3% is arable. Of the arable land 54.7% is farmland Arable: 1.08 million sqkm Farmed: 0.59 million sqkm So the total farmed area in China is 80% the size of that in the US. In any case, the population of China has always been very large, because even in ancient times, they were able to feed a very large population. This is due to the very fertile soil and good climate conditions in China. The US obviously also has excellent soil, but not quite as good climate. Yet, the US could easily feed a population twice or three times its current size. As for China, 1.4 billion is probably surpassing the point at which the land is not longer able to feed its population, so there's no doubt they have problems. Communists have always had an obsession with self-sufficiency. They were very focused on that in USSR, and today in N. Korea, China, Cuba, etc. There's a certain level of paranoia inherent in communism, especially in relation to food, as if they are constantly worried that other countries will not want to trade with them.
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  326.  @billfrehe6620  " A naval blockade of China would be quite easy". As I'm sure you know, China has a very large navy, a very large coastal patrol force, a very large marine militia, and a very large merchant fleet, in addition to a coastline more than 3500 km long. Blockading such a country would not be easy by any means, even if all western naval powers join forces.
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  327.  @billfrehe6620  Your feelings of amusement notwithstanding, even the Pentagon realizes the dangerous size and capabilities of the Chinese military. Fortunately, they are not as dismissive as you, but take the situation seriously.
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  328. 40,000 or 4 million, it doesn't really matter in the long run. Since the vast majority of deaths from Covid are older people, they would have died in the next 10-20 years anyway. They are also not big consumers or producers. Sorry, but old people are not the main drivers of a country's economy or development. Yes, it's a little cold-hearted to say that, but it's a fact.
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  329. Unlikely. In China, as elsewhere, most of the people dying from Covid will have been elderly people. Elderly people don't consume much even when they're alive.
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  330.  @markbernier8434  "There is data that suggests the population has been considerably overstated for years". Could you direct me to that data? I keep hearing people mentioning this, but I have been unable to find any underlying data.
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  331.  @grahamelliott9506  "their population would halve about 2075". This is a more reasonable estimate. "they have over counted their census by 100m". I know some people are saying that, particularly the U. Wisconsin Obstetrician Yi Fuxian, but there is no evidence for his numbers. They are just speculation. The rest of the trends you mention are correct, and they will most likely lead to a halving of the population by the 2070s, not by 2050. In 2050 there will still be around 1.2 Billion. Put the numbers in a spreadsheet and make your own calculation, as I have done.
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  332.  @grahamelliott9506  "china's population halves from its peak in the next 3 to 5 decades". 5 decades, maybe 6. It's math.
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  333. Well, there's CGTN, that's pretty pro-China. You can try that. It's good to get different points of view.
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  334. I believe that falls away after Jan. 8. They may even begin to take applications for tourist visas come spring. That'll be a first in 3 years.
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  335. All the comments below mention unemployment. My comment was not about unemployment, but only about educational attainment rate.
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  336. For people interested in an alternative view, there is a very interesting, and recent, lecture by economist and professor Arthur Kroeber, NYU, given Sep. 22 at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies @ Harvard U. It has a somewhat different conclusion from we normally see here on China Update, but it is accompanied by lots of data. A very interesting perspective. https://youtu.be/LnXVzcgllrE?si=A_Xb4MGTONvu-6vz (Also a good recording where the camera zooms in on the slides rather than the speaker; the opposite is too often the case). (The Fairbank Center is named after John King Fairbank, an eminent historian every China observer is familiar with)
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  337.  @tonysu8860  The US' trade restrictions are, at least in part, due to China's mercantilist policies. Eventually, trade partners are going to to resist always buying and never selling. I think you're going to see this with the EU soon, as well.
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  338. Meanwhile, Xi is giving a speech at Bo'ao Forum indicating things are going well. https://youtu.be/tT0yFnghsjw
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  339.  @josephsanchez5396  "we won't know which side is actually correct for several years". That is certainly a statement we can agree on. I think we also agree that China's economy will eventually decline, I just think it won't happen until the 2040s.
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  340. I find these new background visuals to be distracting.
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  341. So far, I don't think there's any indication of that, but it doesn't hurt to be vigilant. I think it's just as likely that China, like a snail, will slowly retract into its shell as the headwinds increase.
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  342. So the primary reason for international resistance to the Chinese vision of the future world order is not that there's anything wrong with it. It's just that China hasn't communicated it clearly enough. As soon as they do that, the rest of the world will cheer them on. Does that sound to anyone else like evangelism? (I'm here to spread the good news).
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  343. Re. The AI wave: It is possible that one or two AI giants will eventually emerge, but it is equally possible that it will all fizzle out like so often before: Many years ago, when media in the US started talking about nano-tech and nano materials, the word 'nano' suddenly started popping up everywhere in China. Supermarket shelves would be stocked with nano-toothpaste, nano-shampoo and nano-socks, and more companies would start subsidiaries with the word nano in their name. That eventually all came to nothing. Later, when Bill Gates mentioned the 'Internet of Things', everything became about IoT for a number of years, and now we no longer hear much about that, either. In the end, the success of Chinese AI ChatGPT, at least as a consumer application, will depend on whether they can monetize it, and whether they can make it popular. Time will tell, but I am a little skeptical.
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  344. The Saudis can spend their excess RMB on crab meat xiaolongbao. You can never have too many of those.
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  345.  @simontang5487  "Are the Chinese Middle-Class going to rebound?" Probably not all of them, but like in other countries, many of them have quite stable jobs and can maintain a high standard of living for decades going forward. Of course some will perish and others will join them, and the growth in numbers of middle- and upper middle class people will likely slow considerably. But 100 million, give or take, high spenders is still a substantial amount.
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  346.  @Will_Smith_Slapping_Xi_Jinping  One of their contributors may not be familiar to you, but is very familiar to people who have followed China for decades: Willy Wo-Lap Lam. For many years, especially in the 90s and 00s, he was the foremost expert on the inner workings of the CCP. He had some excellent connections inside the Party, but since 2013, it has become increasingly hard for him, or anyone else, to get connected to any insiders. The door is now shut. But he still writes good analyses based on public sources. His column is called 'Willy's Corner'. Also check out his wikipedia page.
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  347.  @stefanyuwono1909  Mao, of course, did not follow a former leader of the CPC. I stand by my opinion.
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  348.  @antb9521  You say you agree it 'looked planned', but just to be clear, that is NOT what I am suggesting.
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  349.  @markwalker8374  That's for sure, and the elevators are much welcomed!
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  350.  @andy.8444  That's true, but I think China was aware, as are many other emerging economies, that an auto industry is a great way to grow the economy in the early/middle stages. So, good for the economy, but bad for us cyclists.
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  351.  @rh906  Since they also have a lot of hydro power, they use the reservoirs as energy storage.
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  352.  @StephenGillie  Yes, but the Chinese prefer it. My friends say they enjoy picking the meat off the bone using lips, tongue, teeth. To them, it's an added pleasure of eating.
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  353. Thanks for the update. Let's see what happens.
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  354.  @mbak7801  You mean worldwide, or only in China? It seems like a high number.
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  355.  @gtw4546  They're not useless. They're less effective, but still provide good protection against serious illness and death.
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  356. "Socialized stimulus" seems to me to be the right path to take. Send the money to local governments, put them in restricted accounts, use the funds only to pay subcontractors to finish the sold apartments and let the buyers move in. Then send the bill to the developers. At least this should help with social stability. Perhaps local governments can take shares in the property developers until (if ever) they can pay back. It's not going to do much for the overall economy, but I'm not sure anything will at this stage.
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  357. The Indian news channel Firstpost covers the fighting fairly closely: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EUXX-QFWMg&t=212s . After all, India is right next door, so it's only natural they pay more attention.
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  358.  @michaelrusso8466  "should have been". Don't look back, look ahead.
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  359. Yes, it's not a legally binding agreement, but those who break it might get shamed in the media.
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  360. "how can China claim a positive GDP". That's easy: Just pump more stimulus into the economy. Of course that has to be repaid some day, but so far they're happy to kick the can down the road.
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  361. They're everywhere.
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  362.  @charliezhu674  Thanks, Charlie. We're almost getting used to this strange life down here. A lot of time is spent looking through WeChat groups to find the right food to buy. Today, I got bacon from a bacon-group, and milk from a milk-group. I'm also waiting for vegetables, cooking oil and a 三黄鸡 chicken (Shanghai specialty).
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  363.  @AnotherPointOfView944  I'm in China. Nevertheless, it's now next morning and I'm still alive.
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  364.  @Leshic2  That's an interesting point, but fabs that make even relatively low end chips need a very large initial investment. I think we would have heard if Cambodia had built a fab. Or maybe not, maybe you're right.
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  365. and he doesn't appear to know Kung Fu.
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  366. Peter Zeihan is best viewed as entertainment. He is deliberately sensationalist for clicks, and much of his source material is sketchy at best. Slow, gradual decline is much more likely. In 2050 China will probably still be a formidable adversary.
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  367.  @harmless6813  But those businesses don't consider China their enemy. You could even say that they have neither enemies nor friends, only suppliers and customers. Remember, they are businesses, not countries.
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  368.  @harmless6813  I would say the only 'enemies' of businesses are competitors and government regulators. If it wasn't considered immoral by society at large, or outright illegal, most western businesses would be happy to trade with Iran, North Korea, Russia, or Syria.
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  369.  @AndyKing1000  I think it's possible to get baby milk formula and other necessities, but coffee and other imported goods are not considered necessities. We have been asked to refrain from ordering unnecessary goods like wine and alcohol, juice, cake, etc. because the few delivery personnel available should be reserved for necessary goods only. But people order these things, anyway. I was lucky to get my hands on cigarettes today, though, because a tobacco shop owner lives in the community and he had a stash on hand. I felt like hitting the jackpot!
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  370.  @AndyKing1000  Thanks for your advice, which I will not follow.
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  371. "US consumer debt has risen to a new height of $17.8 trillion". One man's debt is another man's investment opportunity. China has invested $800 billion in US debt and is getting returns of 4-5% annually ($30-40 billion). China is very thankful to the US consumer.
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  372. Why does 10 trillion mean 15 trillion?
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  373.  @ErikGaming3700  Now, none. I'm referring to last year.
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  374.  @TheFirebird123456  And there are many young, professional women in those big cities who prefer to enjoy their lives, rather than become a mom.
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  375.  @tonysu8860  Yes, sounds plausible, especially if 'green tech' is included in high tech. There is a continued effort to build out solar and wind capacity, and the EV industry has grown a lot in recent years.
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  376.  @davidradtke160  Yes, that is the question. Another question is why someone would put out the number -10% with no supporting evidence. Are we just making up our own numbers here?
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  377. If you don't agree that China should be free to do whatever it wants, wherever it wants, you are 'Suppressing China'.
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  378. Hello from Shanghai. Someone sent a drone out during our lockdown to shoot scenes of our 25-million-person post-apocalyptic street scape. Whether you have visited Shanghai or not, I think you can appreciate the eerie feeling: https://youtu.be/XeUoApHh2q4
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  379. If I were Bytedance, I would try to get as much money out of a sale as possible, but I would also announce that the algorithm that comes with the sale will be an older version. I would not want to sell my latest version of that algorithm. The new owners can then tinker with it as they like. Of course it's an open question whether the Chinese government will even allow a sale. They may very well not, leading to TokTok's demise (but a continuation of the Chinese version, DouYin).
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  380. Biden's comment is probably meant more for domestic consumption, to give Americans the impression that things are going well under Biden. It's election season, after all. To cut through the media clutter, a presidential candidate often has to sound more bombastic; just listen to how Trump sounds. More drama = more attention.
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  381. People who think China might suddenly collapse don't really understand China, or the wider East Asia region in general. These societies put a premium on social, political and economic stability. China in particular is not a free market economy, but a highly managed one. The govt. simply won't allow any sudden movements. Instead, we're much more likely to see a Japan-style slowdown and stagnation. By the end of this decade, China's annual growth could be as low as 2-3%.
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  382.  @alanparsonsfan  Yes, there are a host of different reasons for the declining marriage rate. So I've lived in China for several decades and what I see more and more (in urban settings) is a female wish for self-realization as opposed to immediate motherhood, couples are more willing to live together without getting married, and the general increase in the 'single lifestyle' that we also see in the west.
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  383. Now that iPhones get banned in the government, I wonder how long it will take before Huawei's top level management also stop using iPhones, hahahaha.
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  384. 2:55 (The Yuan) "Crossing the psychologically important USD7.- threshold". That should be "Crossing the psychologically important CNY 7.- threshold" (for every USD).
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  385. The last 20 second clip looks like it could have been taped in yesterday's Shanghai, with its cold, rainy, windy, grey weather.
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  386.  @ChinaUpdate  Have a good time in NZ. You deserve it!
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  387. Why? It is the world's second largest economy. Or are you claiming it's the largest? 3rd largest? 4th?
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  388.  @cooldudecs  People say China lies on their statistics. Ok, so if that is the case, what are the real numbers? What data should we rely on instead? Are there any authoritative data in existence? Or are we just going to put a number on the table that we pulled out of our ass? There are lots of economists who caution us not to believe Chinese data too much, but you will notice they never present other data, because there aren't any. It's like asking a lady her age. We may not believe her to tell the truth, but we have nothing else to base any number on.
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  389.  @jamesdallas1493  I don't know, but various international institutions indicate $19-20 trillion. We don't have to believe them, but who else should we believe? And why should we believe the numbers Mexico put forward, or Thailand? In the end, you have to go with the numbers you have, not the numbers you would like to be true.
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  390.  @Jaysqualityparts  "Now they lie so much I’m going with Japan or South Korea." Based on what? Fantasy?
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  391.  @Jaysqualityparts  "young college graduates in China have over a 50% unemployment rate." Yes, those are official numbers and known to all. But A) Why do you believe those statistics and not the others? B) How do those youth unemployment numbers indicate that China's GDP is lower than that of Japan? Your argument seems rooted in believing only the numbers that agree with your prior position, and dismissing the numbers that are counter to your prior position. That's not serious.
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  392.  @Jaysqualityparts  I know all these data. They are publicly available. My question is: What calculations do you use to get at your conclusion? I posit that you simply pull numbers out of your ass. Like every other China observer, I am skeptical of the official figures, but being skeptical doesn't mean you can just make up your own numbers.
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  393. Ok, maybe the thumbnails are becoming a little too dystopian. I understand it generates interest, but let's try to keep cool heads.
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  394.  @jaydee6268  I wouldn't know.
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  395. "History shows regime collapses almost always follow a similar arc, not unlike stock market crashes". Could you give just a couple of examples of 'regime collapses' that happened as you describe? If 'history shows', there should be at least several examples to pick.
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  396.  @stantheman9072  Well, I obviously disagree with Obama's former secretary of defense on that issue. Biden's work on fostering greater cohesion among friends of the US has been very good. The setting up of AUKUS and development of the Quad, his stance on Russia and China are the right way to go, in my opinion.
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  397.  @stantheman9072  Thanks for sharing your view.
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  398. Exactly my thought. "USA backstabbing our motherland again".
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  399. 'Pumping up to CNY 10 trillion into the economy'. In 2023, the US had a fiscal deficit of $1.7 trillion, adding up to 6.2% of GDP. 10 Trillion CNY would be 7.9% of China's GDP. Of course, China is not as wealthy as the US, so such a high fiscal deficit is a more precarious position to put yourself in.
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  400.  @Defective1313  "Yellen's actions will have made the Chinese think of her as less deserving of their respect." That's very possible, but geopolitics does not depend on personal respect, it depends on the power and resources of each country. Whether Chinese officials have respect for American officials or not is (almost) irrelevant, because any particular decision can be made in both cases: You respect me, I'm going to charge you $5 for a cup of coffee. You don't respect me, I'm still going to charge you $5 for a cup of coffee.
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  401. You already know what they're thinking: One of them, the president, wants to shoot it down. Others, the Pentagon, say that's not necessary.
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