Comments by "Jeffrey Deuitch" (@jeffreydeuitch2146) on "Redfin Releases SHOCKING 2022 Housing Market Predictions! Avoid these Cities!" video.

  1. Not quite sure how lowered appreciation is a good sign for priced out buyers. If they are already priced out then they will still be priced out at 3% higher. This is exact carbon copy of the logic and rhetoric of 2005. Things have to depreciate for housing to be more affordable. Been professionally involved in real estate services since the S&L crisis days of the late 1980s. Therefore seen 2 down cycles in past. The language and sentiment shifts have been the safe. Beware the "it's different this time" narrative.
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  2. Expect some inventory increase and reduction in demand when speculators do not see appreciation growth ahead.
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  3. Never know, but not sure I would be betting on that logic. There is a natural recency bias in human nature. By that, I mean that what has happened recently is expected to continue. Very often because one may not want to consider the possibility that a change may occur. Have been through 2 downcycles. They do not announce themselves in advance and happen against broader logic and belief. Last time, it was "I think appreciation will moderate but wont see prices go down" or "retiring baby boomers will support continued growth in pricing (here in Floria). Many other logical explanations on why prices wont go down. We all know what did indeed happen. Future? Uncertain. However cycles have been happening for a long time and there is no reason to believe that we are not in a cycle at present. One common feature of the last 2 is the most rapid price increase rate occurred immediately before the downturn. In our area is 20% and 25%in 2004 and 2005. Then curve started to flatten then turn down. Will see what happens this time. No crystal ball, just a bunch of familiar smelling ingredients in the stew.
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