Comments by "Jeffrey Deuitch" (@jeffreydeuitch2146) on "REDFIN: Demand BELOW Pre-Pandemic Levels (Vacation Homes)" video.

  1. Perhaps oversimplistic, but one long term chart I have seen in the past is the long term mean house price chart. Been a while since I last saw but seems it went back several decades and also seems the slope of the line was about 7% through time with the data points scattered above or below. My guess is that the current price is well above this mean line. It also clearly showed the reversion to the mean. Typically the overshoots to the upside are followed by overshoots below. The reasons for moves are numerous through time but the moves are interesting. Perhaps you can find it and comment where current mean price fits. Yes, I know they now use median. Also, you reference subprime, but if you can find, see the proportion of foreclosure in the last cycle that were subprime. I saw this some time ago and remember is was surprisingly low. Of course, could have been the trigger but was not dominant. At some point price could be the larger determinant to the future than interest rates. Of course, interest rates are very important in creating shifts. If the rent bubble pops, this could also be a bigger factor than interest although they are inter related. Regards.
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